Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 11, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Last Friday, US stocks continued with their downtrend despite a stronger-than-expected non-farm jobs report (+292,000 in December vs +210,000 expected). The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 1.0% to 16,346, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1% to 1,922, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.0% to 4,643.

Nymex crude oil declined 0.3% to $33.16 a barrel, gold dropped 0.5% to $1,103 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.131% from 2.153% in the previous session.

At the same time, the US dollar kept its strength against commodity currencies, with NZD/USD plunging 1.3% to 0.6538, AUD/USD falling 0.8% to 0.6951 and USD/CAD rising another 0.4% to 1.1468. GBP/USD remained on its downtrend giving up another 0.7% to 1.4517. However, at the end of the session, it pared most of the gains made against the euro and the yen earlier amid the jobs report's release. EUR/USD edged down 0.1% to 1.0929 (vs day low of 1.0801) and USD/JPY was down 0.2% to 117.44 (vs day high of 118.75).The pair maintained its upward momentum and is trading around the lower Bollinger band. The 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average has crossed below the 50-period one, and the intraday relative strength index has dropped below the over-sold level of 30. Therefore the intraday bullish outlook is expected to persist.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, it is recommended to open long positions with the first target at 118.80 and the second target at 119.30. In the alternative scenario, it is recommended to open short positions with the first target at 116.75, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 116.10. The pivot point is at 117.05.

Resistance levels: 118.80, 119.30, 119.75

Support levels: 116.75, 116.10, 115.75

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