Technical analysis of GBPJPY for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion, Japan exporter sales and reduced expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the positive euro sentiment and demand from Japan importers and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 169.10. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 168.55. The pivot point stands at 170.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.05 and the second target at 171.61.

Resistance levels:

171.05

171.60

172 Support levels:

169.10

168.55

168

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

On March 12, the bulls failed to establish an ascending top. Instead, a Double Top reversal pattern was established at 1.5500. The neckline was located at 1.5170-1.5200 also corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted channel.

By breakdown of 1.51750, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern as well.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest Support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 ( 61.8% Fibonacci ).

Trading above 1.4740 on a daily basis will probably hinder further bearish progression giving some time for sideway consolidation at least for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci) which is a prominent resistance now.

On the other hand, daily closure below 1.4740 (yesterday's daily low) and a slide below 1.4675 will open the way towards 1.4350 as a projection target for the long-term bearish pattern.

Until now, the bulls are offering support around 1.4700-1.4725 where two successive bullish daily candlestick were expressed this week.

This may enhance the bullish pull-back towards 1.4945 as an initial target.

On the long-term prospective, projection targets of the H&S reversal pattern are projected towards 1.4350 roughly.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Daily fixation below 1.3870 gathered enough bearish pressure to push the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At the end of the previous week, significant bullish pressure was applied at 1.3700 which paused the recent slide off 1.3965 pushing again above 1.3800.

It's important to note that the EUR/USD pair established a new supply zone at 1.3850-1.3880. It rejected the bulls on December 27 strongly, so any further visits should be considered for selling until proven otherwise.

That's why, bearish pressure is expected to be applied at the current prices. However, some sideway consolidation that may reach 1.3900 isn't excluded to occur before bearish impulse is initiated.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until bullish breakout above 1.3810 took place yesterday.

The depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as a significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

Price zone of 1.3880-1.3900 should be considered for selling as long as 1.3945 remains defended by the bears.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was previously established during February and March.

Daily fixation below 1.6600 (reversal pattern neckline) exposed price level 1.6530 (50% Fibonacci) then enabled the pair to hit the full projection target at 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci).

The recent lows at 1.6465 as well as 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep fixing above 1.6630-1.6666 (corresponding to a prominent top established on January 24).

As long as the ascending bottom established at the uptrend around 1.6555 remains intact, the bulls will be consolidating around 1.6780-1.6800.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6660-1.6675. It's the most recent established top on the current bullish swing.

Lack of bearish follow up below 1.6600 resulted in a strong bullish reversal that allowed a breakthrough above 1.6535 to take place shortly after.

The ascending bottom established at 1.6500-1.6530 exposed price zone of 1.6645 - 1.6680 to be broken through quickly. There seems to be tendency to re-visit this key-zone.

The price level of 1.6645 - 1.6680 may offer a valid BUY entry on the next bearish pull-back. It corresponds to the recent broken top established on March 31.

Stop loss should be located below 1.6560.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 11, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 11/04/2014 10:30 CET

The corrective cycle continues on this pair and there are no signs of the downside trend resumption. The key intraday resistance is at the level of 141.54 and any breakout higher would mean the technical resistance area will be tested, along with 50%Fibo level as well. On the other hand, a breakout below the intraday support at the level of 141.06 would mean that the leg c purple of an irregular correction is in progress and alternate blue labeling is currently the correct one.

Support/Resistance:

139.78 - WS2

140.03 - Swing Low

140.46 - WS1 | Intraday Support|

140.50 - Wave c purple target for a Regular Flat correction

141.06 - Intraday Support

141.54 - Intraday Resistance

141.73 - 50%Fibo

141.93 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should open sell positions from the level of 141.45 - 141.53 with SL above the level of 141.55 and TP at the level of 140.50.

In case of more downside continuation in wave (b) blue, sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 140.44 with SL above the level of 141.04 and TP at the level of 140.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 11/04/2014 10:15 CET

The upside recovery in this pair continues and there is a potential for more gains here if the level of 1.0901 holds. As anticipated, the pair is at the edge of the acceleration channel, and one more push higher might be possible to complete the corrective wave progression.

Support/Resistance:

1.0811 - WS3

1.0857 - Swing Low

1.0901 - Intraday Support

1.0882 - WS2

1.0909 - Technical Resistance

1.0921 - WS1

1.0935 - Target for corrective wave

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 1.0935 with SL above the level of 1.0956 and TP at the level of 1.0811.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 11, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver looks to be retracing its rally from $19.60 to $20.40. At the moment the metal is forming base at the fibonacci 0.618 support at $19.95 levels. It is expected to resume rally towards $20.80 and $21.70 from here on.

2. Intermediary support is at $19.45, followed by $19.00, $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70, followed by $22.30 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver is poised to rally towards $21.70 for now. Bulls are going to remain in control till prices stay above $19.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $19.00/25, target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6135

R2: 1.6106

R1: 1.6067

Current spot: 1.6027

S1: 1.5979

S2: 1.5927

S3: 1.5881

Technical summary:

Yesterday we did see minor resistance protecting the upside for a break below 1.5848, but only for a move towards 1.5837 before a new rally took off. This unexpected rally above 1.5980 has once again changed the short-term picture and we are likely looking at a more complex triangle. If this count proves correct we have only seen wave a and b finished and wave c is developing. C waves of triangles tend to be the most complex of the wave within a triangle. For now we have to wait for the triangle to unfold before the final decline to end wave c is expected.

Trading recommendation:

The short position from 1.5877 was stopped out at 1.5910. We will sell EUR again at 1.6125 with a stop at 1.6185 (just above the top of wave a of the triangle).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Daily pivot point: 0.8698

Trading recommendations :

• The NZD/USD pair is in the short term.


• Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 0.8660 and 1.6705, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Considering, it should be noted that the market will turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 0.8750. Therefore, it will a good sign to sell below 0.8750 with the first target of 0.8700 (this level is representing the daily pivot point). It will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8630. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the stop loss should be placed above 0.8750 at the price of 0.8775.

Notes :

• We expect a range of 75 pips today.


• The risk of 50 pips must make a profit of 75 pips.


• Volatility: 60.97. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility. But yesterday the market saw lower volatility.

Intraday technical levels:

Date: 11/04/2014

Pair: NZD/USD

• R3: 0.8792


• R2: 0.8768


• R1: 0.8722


• PP: 0.8698


• S1: 0.8652


• S2: 0.8628


• S3: 0.8582

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GOLD analysis for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around the price of 1,316.00, we are still waiting for a larger movement. Our previous analysis is still active and we've got good progress. According to the daily chart, we can observe demand bar on volume above the average, which is a sign that selling at this stage still is not safe option. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,321.00 held successfully, which is the first good sign for the potential beartish continuation and the end of the bullish corrective phase. Anyway, If the price breaks the level of 1,321.00 on high volume, we may see possible testing the level of 1,348.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) before any larger supply. According to the short-term prospective, Gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci Retracement to find the first down station. I've got Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,263.00. If the price breaks the level of 1,279.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,263.00. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply on high volume may confirm further bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,323.43

R2: 1,326.67

R3: 1,331.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,312.97

S2: 1,309.73

S3: 1,304.50

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.09

R2: 141.90

R1: 141.55 - Important Resistance

Current spot:

S1: 141.29

S2: 141.09

S3: 140.71

Technical summary:

It is "Make it or Break it" time. Important resistance at 141.55 needs to hold for a break below 141.29 and more importantly for a break below 141.09 to confirm that blue wave v is developing for a move towards at least 139.43. If however, we are to see a break above 141.55, wave i ended at 140.08, and a wave ii correction towards 142.09 is unfolding before lower again. For now, we will just have to wait to see whether resistance at 141.55 will hold for the break below 141.29 or not.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 141.20 with stop placed at 141.60. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell after a break below 141.29 with the same stop at 141.60.

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#USDX technical analysis for April 11, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has not made much since yesterday. The Dollar index remains above critical support at 79.20 but trend remains down. There is no bullish signal. Ichimoku clouds remain above the current price. This is bearish. The Dollar index is now back testing the broken wedge trend line. Short-term support is 79.40-35.

Short-term resistance is found at 79.45-50. If broken, we could see a bounce towards 79.85. Strong resistance is found at 79.80 up until 80 level. A reversal from this level could come as the index has reached oversold levels, but we prefer to remain neutral or short until 79.50 is broken upwards.

The rejection on a daily basis at the Ichimoku cloud at 80.60 has reversed trend sharply lower. Support is being tested and trend remains down. This could lead to more downside towards 78 if the lows at 79.20 are broken. Bulls will have the upper hand only if price breaks above 80.60.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.6822 and 1.6730. Equally important, it should be noted that the level of 1.6730 is representing a strong support in H1 chart. Additionally, the 1.6822 level is going to form a double top. Hence, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be around 92 pips in the coming hours. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.6730, because the level of 1.6730 is going to act as strong support on April 11, 2014. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above this level today with the first target of 1.6780 in order to try to break the minor resistance. Furthermore, if the trend manages to close above 1.6780, then the market will be continuing in uptrend towards the level of 1.6822 (the double top). Another thought, the strong resistance of the GBP/USD pair will set at 1.6822; thus it will be very useful to take profit at this level.

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested and rejected from the the level of 1.6101 on the volume below the average. According to the daily chart, we can observe demand bar on the volume just above the average, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. Major down station may be the price of 1.5765. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6040 is on the test. If the price breaks that area and finish above on the daily chart, we may see more upward movement before any larger supply. Buying looks risky, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply on higher volume may confirm further bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6002

R2: 1.6039

R3: 1.6100

Support levels:

S1: 1.5881

S2 : 1.5844

S3: 1.5784

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY produces a bullish bounce right at the cone support around 140.50 levels. The pair is trading at 141.40/50 levels at the moment and resistance is now seen at 142.60/143.00 levels. Please note that cone consolidation resistance line remains key for the next big move.

2. Support is seen at 140.00 levels, followed by 138.50, 136.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 143.00/50, 144.00 and 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY is poised to test resistance line at 143.00 levels for now. A break higher, would test 145.50. 140.00 remains key for bulls to continue.

Trading recommendations:

Hold on to long positions taken, set stop at 140.00, target is at least at 143.00.

Good luck!

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Gold technical analysis for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Gold price rise from $1,275 to $1,325 is most probably the first of the three parts of an upward correction. Gold price has reached the 38% retracement of the decline from $1,391 and as this is a very strong resistance, the first try to break above it has failed. This rejection could lead to a larger pull back in Gold price towards $1,300-$1,295.

Gold price is trading inside an upward sloping channel, and if the channel is broken, then we should expect the price to challenge the Ichimoku cloud in the short-term 4-hour chart shown above. The Ichimoku support is found at $1,300-$1,295 in the short term. The closest support level is at $1,315. If this level is broken, then we should expect to see a move towards the lower channel boundaries at $1,310.

The daily chart shows that Gold price has reached important resistance levels. A pull back inside the middle of the cloud is very possible, but the upward correction is probably not over yet. I still expect $1,350 to be reached.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair reverses ahead of the 1.4850 mark. At the moment the pair is trading well below 1.4700. It is expected to receive interim support at 1.4600 levels for now. a bullish reversal there should prompt us to exit short positions.

2. Support is seen at 1.4650/60, followed by 1.4520, 1.4450, 1,4350 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4850, followed by 1.4950/60 and 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF could possibly see support at 1.4600 levels. A break below, would confirm that a lower top is formed and prices are headed towards 1.4350 and lower.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4850, target is at 1.4600 and 1.4350.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

The Bank of England keeps rates low. Growth is looking healthier in the UK and inflation is still below the target, so it's unlikely the bank will its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.5%. Bank of England policymakers allows the UK's recovery to gather pace. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £ 375 billion.

Technical view

As we recommended in yesterday's article limited upside and sell on rallies, the same the pair is reacting in today as well. The pair faces strong resistance at 1.6823. The pair is in a sell more for near term or couple days. Overall the pair is set for long trend up side until the US dollar breaks above the 81 levels. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.6772. Trades below the 1.6786 adds more weakness towards this pair. On the down side the pair has support at 1.6718, once break below this it will correct up to 1.6684 and 1.6664(50SMA). On the up side, the bull's strength will be back only above 1.6823 towards 1.69 and 1.7 levels. We still favor to sell on rally for a couple of days or fresh longs will get a good opportunity on dip.

For positional basis, the pair is trading between 1.6718-1.6823. Breakout either side will give more room for trading towards 1.7 or 1.66 levels. A day close above the 1.6823 level February 17 high the pair will extend its leg towards 1.6910 and in max case 1.70 levels will be possible. But in the down side, if the pair breaks and close below 1.6718 for a day, the bear strength will take the pair towards 1.6 and in least case 1.6554. The level 1.6554 is the minor trend decider level, if holds bulls will regain strengh if not, the bears will take the pair up to 1.6465 levels.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
After a strong downwards movements from the half of March, the USD/CAD has finally started to show some bullish movements in the last 24 hours. In the 1-hour chart of the pair above, you can see that we are labeling the descending movement from 1.1278 towards the 1.0853 as the impulsive pattern. We have all five waves completed, and also RSI divergence supports this view, so we are going to keep looking for a buying opportunity in the pair at the pullbacks, and to protect our account, we can use the 1.0850 as the stop loss level. First pullback in the USD/CAD pair, should appear in the (ii) wave (coloured blue) of [i] wave (coloured green), and we can use the 50% of the short term cycle from the 1.0853 level as the potential long entry signal. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1037 (161.8% of wave (i)). Swing traders should wait for a impulsive wave [i] to make a five waves move, and than we can look for corrective pullback to enter a trade.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0822, (S2) 1.0844, (S1) 1.0889, (PP) 1.0911, (R1) 1.0956, (R2) 1.0978, (R3) 1.1023.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.0895 with stop loss at 1.0853 and take profit at 1.1037 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, just like we expected, impulsive cycle in the C wave (coloured red) has been completed, and we need to see now, what can we do next in the pair. In the 1-hour chart, we can observe that ascending cycle from the 0.8918 level, already have enough sub-waves to call the C wave completed. The RSI indicator point for bearish divergence, and this just makes us look for a selling opportunity at the (ii) wave (coloured blue) pullback. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 0.9175 (161.8% of wave (i)). Swing traders should wait for more data to come and prove that bigger downwards trend is going to happen again.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9278, (S2) 0.9324, (S1) 0.9368, (PP) 0.9414, (R1) 0.9458, (R2) 0.9504, (R3) 0.9548.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9400 with stop loss at 0.9470 and take profit at 0.9175 are recommended.

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Forecast analysis of USDX for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Last week when the Dollar index broke out of an ending pattern, it should have seen a strong rally, but for the 9th time it failed to get past the 20-week and 20-month averages. This keeps open the possibility that a larger triangle is forming. Below the recent low of 79.27, the last support exists at 79 levels (double bottom) and 78.62 levels. If the US dollar index closes below 79, it would head to 75-74.5 levels. On the up side, if the price holds the 79 levels and breaks above the 81 level, then the extreme bullish factors will strengthen in the coming days towards higher levels. Note in 2007 even after US stocks had started to decline, the dollar index was declining in March. So a falling dollar is not always bullish, though it does mean money moving out of US equities to other assets like commodities or EMs.

Currently, the trading patten is set between 79-81 levels. Either side breakout will give a boost for bigger/lower new targets. The levels between 79.36-79.27-79 are the best buying zone with closing sl 78.6. We recommend to buy above levels.

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