Friday 31 January 2014

Daily analysis of USDX for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: Again, the USDX has consolidated above the support level of 80.62 and now above the 200 SMA. This bullish momentum indicates much indecision in the market, because the USDX has not got out of the range between the levels of 81.50 and 80.11. However, it is very likely that the USDX will try to climb to the resistance level of 81.50. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 80.99 and above the 200 SMA. If the USDX manages to break the resistance level of 81.19, it is expected to rise to the level of 81.29. Furthermore, if the USDX achieves in break the support level of 80.99, it is expected to fall to the level of 80.83. The MACD indicator is still in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX formed two fractals near the resistance level of 81.09. This level is quite important since the point of control is located there. However, if the USDX manages to break that resistance level, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.40. Furthermore, if the USDX achieves in break the support level of 80.93, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.73. The MACD indicator is in extreme overbought zone and entering negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.98, take profit is at 81.40, and stop loss is at 80.77.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD had a drop below the level of 1.6540 and reached to touch the support level of 1.6447. Now this pair is forming a bearish pattern above that level, but we should remember that at this level the pair usually finds strong support and makes a bullish rebound again to try to consolidate above the level of 1.6540. However, if the pair manages to break the support level at 1.6447, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6326. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.


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H4 chart: The GBPUSD managed to fall to the level of 1.6441, where the 200 day moving average is located. There, the pair made a bullish rebound and formed a fractal. If it manages to break the resistance level of 1.6516, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6592. Moreover, if this pair does break the support at the level of 1.6464, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6441. The MACD indicator is still in negative territory.


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H1 chart: This pair is forming a higher low pattern below the 200 SMA and the point of control. If the pair manages to break the support level at 1.6464, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6419. Moreover, if this pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6507, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6544. The MACD indicator is moving into positive territory.


Daily_analysis_of_GBPUSD_for_January_31,


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6464, take profit is at 1.6419, and stop loss is at 1.6509.


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Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair continued moving downwards yesterday, so our primary count is still valid and we are still going with an idea that wave .c (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) is developing at the moment. In the 1-hour chart, we can see that the AUD/USD pair has missed our invalidation point by few pips, and now the descending move from the 0.8826 level looks like FLAT pattern. Traders who are already short should remain short against the 0.8826 level and swing traders should wait next week to get a clear signal that the wave iii is over before opening long positions at the 0.8595 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).


Alternate count: While price holds above the 0.8657 level, our alternate count is still valid, and we are looking at the wave i (couloured blue) as completed at 0.8658, pullback that started from 0.8709 as the part of the ii wave. 0.9090 area.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8645, (S2) 0.8677, (S1) 0.8735, (PP) 0.8767, (R1) 0.8825, (R2) 0.8857, (R3) 0.8915.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at level of 0.8700 with stop loss at 0.8750 take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, corrective wave .c (coloured black) of the wave [y] (coloured green) has been developing. According to our last forecast, we expected this commodity currency to break below the lower trend line before opening the short position, but if the price breaks the last high at the 1.1198 level, we should go with an idea that wave [y] (coloured green) still has room to go higher and this can provide a short-term buying opportunity against the low at the 1.1478 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [y] should retrace 123.6% of wave [w], we can define the potential targets by measuring wave [w] with take profit at 1.1289 (123.6% of wave Y).


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.1092, (S2) 1.1121, (S1) 1.1140, (PP) 1.1169, (R1) 1.1188, (R2) 1.1217, (R3) 1.1236.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1200 with stop loss at 1.147 and take profit at 1.1289 are recommended.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. Liquidity was thin in Asia as financial markets in many countries in the region were shut for holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.07 versus 80.55 early Thursday) as advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP matched forecasts with growth of 3.2% which reflects the Federal Reserve's confidence over the U.S. economy as it continue to scaled back its bond-buying stimulus program. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen since global risk sentiment improves (S&P rose 1.13% overnight) as emerging-market currencies are stabilizing. The Turkish lira, South African rand and Russian ruble were bounced back from earlier lows on Thursday, demand from the Japan importers and investment trusts and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But dollar sentiment is dented by bigger-than-expected 8.7% fall in U.S. December pending home sales index (versus minus 0.8% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical сomment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.8. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.55. The pivot point is at 102.


Resistance levels:

102.75

103.05

103.55


Support levels:

101.8

101.55

101.25


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone and Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and improved investor risk tolerance. It is also affected by the positions adjustment of traders before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 167.25 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 166.6. The pivot point stands at 169.8. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.9 and the second target at 171.65.


Resistance levels:

170.9

171.65

172.40


Support levels:

167.25

166.6

166


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment, reduced safe-appeal of franc as emerging-market currencies are stabilized and weaker-than-expected Switzerland January KOF economic barometer of 1.98 (versus 1.99 forecast). But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.906 and the second target at 0.908. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.898. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8955. The pivot point is at 0.9.


Resistance levels:

0.906

0.908

0.9105


Support levels:

0.898

0.8955

0.8925


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GOLD : Analysis for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price reached our down station and tested level of the 1,237.86 on high volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels from the most recent swings and I got FE 100 % at price 1,240.00 (already met) and FE 161.8 % at price 1.222.00. We can observe large selling climax at price 1,238.70 which caused so start smaller bullish correction like reaction on large selling climax. We may see possible testing of the level 1,250.00 – 1,253.00 before we continue with bearish movement. If the price breaks our FE 100 % (1,240.00) on high volume, we may see the testing of next down station around the prices of 1,222.00(FE 161.8 %)- 1.219.00 (Major FR 61.8 %). Buying gold looks risky since we are in short-and mid-term downtrend, and we also got finished the major ABCD bullish corrective phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,261.51


R2: 1,268.55


R3: 1,279.93


Support levels:


S1: 1,238.75


S2: 1,231.71


S3: 1,220.33


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful when buying and try to catch the bearish continuation phase.


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EUR/NZD: Analysis for EURNZD 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards. Just as we expected, the price tested level of 1.6733 on high volume. We can observe that strong demand has entered the market at price 1.6613 which is good sign of bullish strength. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find next upper level and I got FE major 61.8% at price 1.6800. There is a chance that we may see smaller bearish correctionin reaction of very high volume but general direction is bullish. Do not forget that EUR/NZD is in short-and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky,so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuationphase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6688


R2: 1.6722


R3: 1.6775


Support levels:


S1: 1.6582


S2 : 1.6548


S3: 1.6495


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross and positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD downside is limited by hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish but stochastics is neutral, bearish outside-day-range pattern is completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8075 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.803. The pivot point stands at 0.8190. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8245 and the second target at 0.828.


Resistance levels:

0.8245

0.828

0.83

Support levels:

0.8075

0.803

0.8


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Technical analysis for NZD/USD for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The NZD/USD pair seems to be heading towards 0.8000 levels at the moment, in a corrective manner. It is recommended to initiate short positions now (0.8130), risk remains at 0.8250 at least.


2. Immediate resistance is at 0.8430, followed by 0.8540 (intermediary), and 0.8600/50, while supports are spread through 0.8080 (intermediary), followed by 0.7700/50 respectively.


3. The structure reveals that bears are targeting 0.8000 levels for now. Please also note that 0.8000 is re-enforced by the fibonacci 0.618 support as well.


Trading recommendations:


Short now, stop at 0.8250, target 0.8000.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. A weekly chart view has been presented here for the overall wave structure. The intermediary downtrend that had begun from 1.1000 levels is on its way towards 0.7950, which is 0.618 fibonacci support of the entire upswing between 0.6000 to 1.1000. It is recommended to initiate short positions now (0.8750), risk remains at 0.9000.


2. Immediate resistance is at 0.8900, followed by 0.9080, while support is at 0.8300 and 0.8000 respectively.


3. The entire structure reveals (Elliot Theory), that a 3 wave decline is underway towards 0.7950 levels before the next bull run resumes.


Trading recommendations:


Sell now, stop at 0.90, target at 0.8000


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/USD pair is poised to move lower towards 1.6100/1.6000. It is recommended to hold on to short positions for now and also look to add further on intraday rallies. Major top seems to have been formed at 1.6650/60 levels.


2. Immediate resistance is at 1.6630/50, while supports are spread through 1.6300, followed by 1.6200 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that a major reversal could be possible from the recent swing highs at 1.6650. Immediate downside extensions are pointing at 1.6100/1.6000.


Trading recommendations:


Hold on to short positions from yesterday, stop at 1.6650 for now, target at 1.6100.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis for USD/CHF for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The USD/CHF pair has produced an engulfing bullish signal on daily chart yesterday. It is currently trading above 0.9000 and is poised to push further high. Hence recommendations are to hold long positions and look to add further on dips. Risk remains at 0.8800.


2. Immediate resistance is the recent swing highs at 0.9150 (intermediary resistance), followed by 0.9250 and 0.9450, while supports are spread through 0.8900 (intermediary) and 0.8800 respectively.


3. The entire structure reveals that a major bottom could be in place at 0.8800 now. Furthermore, the down trend line has been broken and prices have also tested the backside at 0.8900 (resistance turned support). Implications are higher highs and higher lows from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Hold on to long positions, stop at 0.8800, target open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis for USD/JPY for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. As seen here, the USD/JPY has bounced off the lows at 102.00 yesterday. Please note that 102.00 is the fibonacci 0.382 support as well. A push above 103.50 would confirm that bottom is in place at 102.00 and bullish trend should continue. It is recommended to hold long positions taken yesterday.


2. Immediate resistance is at 104.50, followed by 105.50, while supports are spread through 102.00 (intermediary), followed by 101.50, 97.50, 96.50 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that 102.00 could be the next support from here on. Risk is at 101.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 101.00, target open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/USD pair is back towards range bottom at the 1.3530/50 levels. It is recommended to keep short positions taken yesterday. A push through 1.3500 would prove to be extremely bearish, while risk remains at 1.3850.


2. Immediate resistance is at 1.3740/50, followed by 1.3850, while supports are spread through 1.3500 (intermediary), followed by 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3100 and 1.2700 respectively.


3. The entire structure reveals that a major top formation has taken place at 1.3850/90 now, and the bear trend could possibly resume. The down side extensions are 1.3200 and 1.2800 respectively as seen here.


Trading recommendations:


Hold on to short positions, stop at 1.3850, target 1.32 and 1.28


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver has retraced to out expected levels of $19.00 as seen here. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier and look to add further now. Risk remains at $18.50.


2. Immediate support is at $18.50, while resistance is at $20.50 (intermediary), followed by $21.00 and $22.00 respectively.


3. The entire structure reveals that a meaningful bottom is in place at $18.75 recently. The metal has also retraced towards $19.00 levels, a bullish reversal here could look to target $22.00 at least.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, add further at current levels, stop at $18.50, target open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has produced an engulfing bearish candle stick yesterday. Currently trading at $1,241.00, it is recommended to remain short and also sell intraday rallies. Risk is at $1,270.00 at present.


2. Immediate resistance is at $1,270.00, followed by $1,279.00, while supports are spread through $1,230.00, followed by $1,220.00, and $1,182.00 respectively.


3. The structure reveals that Gold is retracing at the moment towards $1,220.00 levels. Please note that 0.618 fibonacci support is at $1, 218.00 and a bullish reaction is expected there. The next bullish swing would resume from there on. $1,182.00 remains key for the trend.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short for now, stop at $1,270.00, target $1,220.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis for EUR/JPY for January 31, 2014. Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair has drifted into yet another low at 138.70 today. Implications are ripe for a counter trend rally from here, towards 143.00 as seen here. It is recommended to remain flat for now and sell around 143.00 levels for further downside.


2. Immediate resistance is at 143.00, followed by 145.50, while supports are spread through 138.40/50, followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that EUR/JPY should resume a counter trend rally towards 143.00. Thereafter, the downswing should resume towards 134.30 at least. Alternatively, if prices exceed 143.00, it would challenge 145.50 again.


Trading recommendations:


1. Aggressive traders can go long now, stop 138.00 target 143.00


2. Conservative trading strategy would be to remain flat for now. Look to sell at 143.00


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair is setting up to reach towards 1.4900/50 from here on as seen in the chart attached here. It is recommended to hold on to short positions taken earlier and also plan to add further if prices reach 1.4900/50. Please note that the current rally can be considered as a counter trend rally; which would provide selling opportunities. Risk remains at 1.5120/30.


2. Immediate resistance is at 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4700 (intermediary), followed by 1.4550, 1.4350/60,1.4200 and 1.4000 respectively.


3. The entire chart setup reveals that an important top could be in place at 1.5120/30 and major reversal from 1.4900/50 level is possible in a head and shoulder format. Downside extensions are pointing towards 1.4200 and 1.400 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Hold on to short positions, stop at 1.5150, target open.


Good luck!


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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GBP/USD had been trapped inside a wide-ranged price zone extending between 1.5900 and 1.6250 until November 27 when a bullish breakout took place.


Since then, the bulls have been defending 1.6250 as a prominent support. Another successful bullish retesting took place in mid-December that pushed the pair again to the upside.


Based on this bullish breakout, the GBP/USD pair had a projection target around 1.6630 which acts as a prominent resistance for the pair.


As suggested, the bearish reversal was initially expressed at retesting of 1.6660 on January 24.


Bullish momentum manifested itself through the current week's consolidations until bearish rejection was expressed on retesting of 1.6620 on Tuesday.


The pair declined about 160 pips reaching a prominent support level located at 1.6450.


As expected Yesterday, bullish reversal off 1.6450 pushed the pair towards 1.6490-1.6500 before further bearish movement took place to push again towards 1.6450.


For today's consolidations, 4H-hour stabilization below price level of 1.6440-1.6400 is mandatory for further decline to take place.


4H closure below 1.6400 probably indicates another bearish impulse towards 1.6390 then probably 1.6310.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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General overview for 31/01/2014 10:00 CET


Not much of impulsive price development so far on hourly chart can be spotted. Instead of that, the golden trend line has been tested and so far the price has bounced from it and it is trying to break out higher. The key level is 1.1198 as the last swing high and the next important resistance is at the level of 1.1303. Please notice that the bearish divergence had been formed on H1,H4 and Daily time frames, so the pull back or correction seems imminent when wave (v) is completed.


Support/Resistance


1.1303 - WR2


1.1198 - Swing High


1.1185 - WR1


1.1181 - Technical Support



Trading recommendations:


Break out above the level of 1.1198 is bullish as the market will try to complete the last wave of the ending diagonal formation. Buy stop orders should be opened from that level with SL below the level of 1.1148 and TP at the level of 1.1303.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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General overview for 31/01/2014 10:00 CET


The target for wave (v) blue has been missed by mere 10 pips and it looks like the market had finished the impulsive wave progression to the downside and now it is trying to bounce from the lows. The next cycle should be a corrective wave B green, that might retrace first to the grey rectangle area between the levels of 139.47 - 139.58 or hit the previous wave four area at the level of 139.93. Moreover, the weekly pivot should provide good resistance and it should stop any upside rally. On the other hand, any break out lower below the level of 138.66 is bearish and wave (v) will be extended down to the level of 137.96.


Support/Resistance


137.96 - WS1


138.66 - Intraday Support


139.21 - Intraday Resistance


139.47 - 139.58 - Demand Breakthrough Zone


139.93 - Previous wave four level


140.17 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Break out below the level of 138.66 is bearish and buy stop orders should be opened from this level with SL above the level of 139.21 and TP at the level of 137.96.


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Daily analysis of Silver for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview


Based on the H4 chart, silver is still stabilizing below the Resistance level of 19.20 after its rebound from the Support level of 19.00 yesterday. If silver reverses its bullish move due to this Resistance level and manages to break the Support level of 19.00 this would give a strong indicator to continue the downward move and open the way towards the Support level of 18.75, then we should wait for the breakout of this level to continue the bearish move. On the other hand, if the pair does not break the Support level of 19.00 and reverses its downward move, it may be a good opportunity for a bullish signals enabling the Resistance level of 19.00 again. The breakout of this Resistance level will denote a bullish strength providing new buy-signals from this level till reaching the Resistance area of 19.50-19.75 .


Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.75), R2 (19.50), R1 (19.20), S1 (19.00), S2 (18.75), S3(18.50)


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Overview


In H4 chart, the pair failed to break the Support level of 168.50 more than once to continue its bearish move. It has been trading above since yesterday. Today, the H4 chart shows that the pair bounced from the Support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the Resistance level of 169.50. Currently, it is better to wait for closing above this Resistance level, before making the decision and in this case we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next Resistance level of 170.00 then 170.75 as the second target. But closing below the Resistance level of 169.50 cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6792


R2: 1.6763


R1: 1.6677


Current Spot: 1.6625


S1: 1.6609


S2: 1.6592


S3: 1.6561


Technical summary:


The expected correction from 1.6725 became slightly deeper than expected, but we are now looking for support at 1.6592 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6677, which confirms the rally in red wave v towards 1.6792. Once red wave v and black wave iii is in place look for a shallow wave iv correction to 1.6579 before higher again in wave v.


Trading recommendation:


Stay long EUR from 1.6495 and keep you stop at 1.6554, but lift your stop to 1.6600 upon a break above 1.6677. Take profit should be kept at 1.6780. If you are not long EUR yet, then the potential is becomming limited, but buy EUR upon a break above 1.6677 with a close stop at 1.6640 and take profit at 1.6780 could work.


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#USDX Technical analysis for January 31, 2014 Trend News

As expected by our last analysis, the Dollar index has again reached the important resistance levels above 81. The trend has changed to bullish for the short-term once the downward sloping trend line was broken upwards at 80.60. Our next short-term resistance at 80.80 was broken and our target of 81.10 was reached. Now it is important for bulls to break above 81.30-35 as another third rejection at the 81.30-50 levels will be very bearish. However we believe that this time a break out will occur. On a daily basis, the Dollar index remains in an uptrend as long as the daily close is above 80.40. Our triangle as shown in the daily chart remains below the current price formation and the cross of our two MA is giving a bullish signal. We are confident that as long as the index trade above 80.40 we will see an upward break out that will bring the index towards 82.50. The Dollar index is making a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows from 79.70 to 81.40 and then to a higher low at 80.15. Now we expect to see the higher high above 81.50 resistance, at least, 82.50 at least.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 140.27


R2: 139.94


R1: 139.37


Current spot: 138.96


S1: 138.65


S2: 138.18


S2: 137.39


Technical summary:


We are looking for the ongoing wave blue wave iii to start accelerating towards the downside soon. The ideal target for blue wave iii is at 136.15. In the short-term, we expect minor resistance at 139.37 to protect the upside for the next decline, but if the minor resistance is clearly broken, we should expect a minor extension towards 139.94 before the next move lower towards 136.15.


A break below the support line of the base channel will confirm that the expected acceleration lower is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 141.85 and keep your stop at 141.30. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR at 139.37 with the same stop at 141.30.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Gold price as expected by our analysis after being rejected at $1,270 has broken the short-term support at $1,248-50. Gold price has also broken the short-term upward sloping trend line and is moving downwards in an impulsive pattern. As mentioned in previous analysis, we believed that the rise from $1,180 is corrective and a reversal was expected around $1,270. Now Gold price reverses lower towards the important support area of $1,230-$1,220. The daily chart shows the Gold price that has moved again below the long-term trend line resistance that connects $1,433 and $1,360. We continue to believe that an important top could be formed around $1,270 and we could see a downward move towards $1,140. However we should first get some sell signals before the above scenario gets confirmed. Sell signals will be given if Gold price makes a daily close below $1,220-30 support and if the decline continues to unfold in impulsive waves. Currently, we have 5 waves down from $1,279 to $1,251, an a-b-c correction that reached $1,270 and now another impulsive move that has already reached $1,238. These are three waves down. We need a fourth and a fifth wave down to be more confident regarding the bearish scenario.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Overview:



  • The EUR/USD pair has broken a major support at the level of 1.3643. But in case the daily pivot point is at the 1.3587 level, then the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below this price. Additionally, it is now approaching to it; therefore, it will probably start downside movement at this area and recover again. So the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the price of 1.3590 (below 1.3590 look for further downside) and it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with a first target of 1.3555, and continue towards 1.3510. However, if a break in 1.3643 takes place, then it will be a good area for placing the stop loss.


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Intraday technical levels:



  • Projected high:1,3871

  • Breakout (buy stop):1,3816

  • Strong resistance (sell limit):1,3786

  • Current pivot:1,3603

  • Strong support (buy limit):1,3420

  • Breakout (sell stop):1,3395

  • Projected low:1,3345


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Overview:



  • The price of USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.9063 and 0.9000 but it should noticed that the price has set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9098 (0.9102: 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart). Moreover, it is worthy of note that these levels are coinciding between 50% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart and the pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 0.9098. So now it is approaching to it in order to test it. Therefore, the Swissy's downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9100, it will a good sign to sell below 0.9100 with a first target of 0.9030. It will call for downtrend continuing falling towards 0.9001 to try to break the weekly pivot point. Thus, if the trend will be able to break the weekly pivot point then the market will lead to the price of 0.8960.


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Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

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USD gained momentum holding its strength after FOMC meeting and fourth quarter GDP numbers released. Fourth-quarter GDP data validates the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its asset purchases, boosting hopes for a strong 2014. They gave strong forward guidance through commitment to keep interest rates at the record lows for longer. The Commerce Department said US GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which is a positive fundamental factor. It raises the optimism towards the US dollar. It managed to maintain its strength against major currencies. Fair value deviations call for a stronger USD against all other currencies.


The GDP figures reveal the health of the largest economy in the world lingering for the 11th straight quarter. The US economy gathers momentum with capacity utilisation rates at their long-term average and the output gap set to narrow going forward. Manufacturing , construction and home sales not recovered fully. As a whole, the economy looks great on the strength of the strongest consumer spending in three years. Consumer spending surged in the October-December quarter at an annual rate of 3.3% led by durable goods like computers, cars and communications equipment and non-durable goods like clothing spending on services.


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Recovery in Europe benefits export-oriented sectors of the Swiss economy. As expected, domestic economic dynamics to soften and out growth forecasts falls substantially short of the consent view.


We expect the Swiss Franc to weaken against USD. The pair USD/CHF has been trying hard to break the 38.2% retracement mark for the last two months. In the daily chart, the pair is trading above 21DEMA; oscillators give a buy signal. From December 2013 low of 0.8800, the pair moved towards the higher levels 0.9157 after that gone through correction. This week, the pair managed to close above the level 0.8935, whereas 0.8900 is the strong bull support.


In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at the level 0.9024. Yesterday's high of 0.9048 is very crucial in coming sessions. If the pair crosses yesterday's high, the immediate resistance will be at the level of 0.9105.


We recommend to buy the pair USD/CHF with sl 0.8800 for the higher targets 0.9838 and 0.997.


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Fundamental analysis of Gold for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Fourth-quarter GDP data validates the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its asset purchases, boosting hopes for a strong 2014. The commerce department said US GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Dow Jones rose 156 points on Thursday. US equities soared over 1% on strong GDP data. The USD strengthened and came back of equity market making gold drop 2%. After the currencies rebounded, gold traders stated selling off the metal. SPDR gold trust holdings stood at 792.56 tonnes. The South African labour court on Thursday declared a planned Association of Construction and Mineworkers Union strike in the gold sector. The risk of gold is that it becomes more vulnerable to the downside during this quarter period for physical demand. In India, uncertainty remains with regards to regulations. Gold premiums in India came off noticeably shortly after recent headlines highlighted the possibility of gold import rules changing in the coming months.


In the technical front, gold broken the falling lower trend line. Price is trading below 21DEMA and oscillators are still on the sell side in the daily charts; thus, we expect more room for down side. In the hourly chart, oscillators gave a pullback signal. Gold rebounds from oversold positions.


Support- $1,237, $1,230


Resistance- $1,248 $1,255


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Thursday 30 January 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few sessions, the USD/CAD pair has started to go lower, corrective wave [x] (coloured green) or wave [i] (coloured green) has started developing. In the USD/CAD 1-hour chart we can observe a descending movement from the 1.1198 level, possible end of the [y] wave (coloured green), and we are still waiting for a fresh sell signal when the price breaks the lower trend line. Aggressive traders can already try small short position against the high at the 1.1198 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave X2 should retrace 50-61.8% of wave Y, we can define potential targets measuring wave Y with take profit at 1.0895-1.0825 (50-61.8% of wave Y). The RSI indicator is showing strong bullish divergence that confirms a possible end of the [y] wave.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0995, (S2) 1.1036, (S1) 1.1094, (PP) 1.1135, (R1) 1.1193, (R2) 1.1234, (R3) 1.1292.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin a downward movement. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1150 with stop loss at 1.1200 and take profit at 1.0895 are recommended.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last forecast, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, we are still tracking wave iii (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (v) (colorued red) as the best possible structure, but we are going to discuss an alternate count since we are close to our invalidation levels today. In the AUD/USD 1-hour chart we are tracking wave c of iii wave from the 0.8825 level and while the price stays below this high, we are going to look for more bearish movements in this commodity currency. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).


Alternate count: we ended the wave i (couloured blue) at the 0.8658 and pullback that started from 0.8709 is a part of the ii wave, if this is correct, we should see one more push higher toward the 0.8920 area before the price turns lower again, but in this case we also want to be short against the high at the 0.9090 level.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8633, (S2) 0.8679, (S1) 0.8728, (PP) 0.8774, (R1) 0.8823, (R2) 0.8869, (R3) 0.8918.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at the level of 0.8900 with stop loss at 0.9090 and take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Yesterday, the pair failed to break the Support level of 168.50 to reverse its bearish movement and took a slightly upward move. As seen in today's H4 chart, it is currently trading below the Resistance level of 169.50. Given that, the pair continues its bullish movement and closes 4H above the Resistance level of 169.50, it would be another opportunity for more bullish signals with first target few pips below the Resistance level of 170.00, then we should wait for breaking above this Resistance level to get more bullish signals towards the Resistance level of 170.75 as a second target.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).


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GOLD: analysis for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,250.58 on higher volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels from the most recent swings and I got FE 61.8 % at price 1,251.00 (currently on the test) and FE 100 % at price 1,240.00. We can observe a rejection from our sub-major FR 61.8% and buying climax, which caused price to start downward movement. If the price breaks our FE 61.8 % (1,251.00) on high volume, we may see the testing of next down station around the prices of 1,243 (Major FR 38.2 %)- 1.2400 (FE 100 %). Buying gold looks risky since we are in short-and mid-term downtrend, and we also got finished the ABCD bullish corrective phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,269.91


R2: 1,274.49


R3: 1,281.90


Support levels:


S1: 1,255.09


S2: 1,250.51


S3: 1,243.10


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful when buying and try to catch the bearish continuation phase.


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Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards. Just as we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6422 and tested level of 1.6721 on the high volume. We can observe that strong demand has entered the market at price 1.6515 which is good sign of bullish strength. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find next upper level and I got FE major 61.8 % at price 1.6800. There is a chance that we may see smaller bearish correction in reaction of very high volume so price may test area around the levels of 1.6535-1.6520, before bullish contunuation. Do not forget that EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6691


R2: 1.6756


R3: 1.6861


Support levels:


S1: 1.6481


S2 : 1.6416


S3: 1.6311


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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The bulls have managed to reach new price levels (around 1.1180) that haven't been reached since 2009.


Temporarily, USD failed to keep its gains against CAD, and the USD/CAD pair was pushed to the downside until Monday when another bullish impulse was initiated on retesting of 1.1030.


The next prominent resistance level is located around 1.1230 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level of the bearish movement that had been extending since March 2009 and ended in July 2011.


The pair has a significant support zone between 1.0700 and 1.0750 representing the upper limit of consolidation range that got broken this month.


Re-testing of this zone will probably provide a valid BUY entry for the mid-term.


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A bullish breakout above 1.0720 (previous triple-top resistance) took place during the first week of January.


Last week on Wednesday, the pair showed obvious bearish rejection (inverted hammer daily candlestick) then this week on Monday, another bullish impulse was initiated on retesting of 1.1030 resulting in a daily bullish engulfing candlestick. The pair is probably heading towards 1.1230 in the intermediate term.


A prominent support zone is located at 1.0960-1.0900. Any further retesting may offer a valid BUY entry with SL as a daily closure below 1.0900.


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