Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting its one-week low at 101.72 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 2.16% to 14.04; S&P rose 0.49% overnight) as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in her testimony before U.S. Senate Banking Committee said harsh weather has played a role in recent "soft data," although she isn't sure to what extent, but added that the Fed might consider a pause in its reduction of bond buying if the weakness persists, while U.S. durable goods orders fell smaller-than-expected 1.0% in January (versus forecast 2.0% drop). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and expansionary Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But risk appetite is dented by the persistent uncertainty about China's yuan policy and concerns about possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan the exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.28 versus 80.43 early Thursday) on larger-than-expected 14,000 rise in U.S. jobless claims to 348,000 in week ended Feb. 22 (versus 335,000 forecast), fall in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to +4 in February from +5 in January; positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.35. The pivot point stands at 102.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.50 and the second target at 102.75.

Resistance levels:

102.45

102.75

103.05

Support levels:

101.6

101.35

101

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, flows to haven CHF amid tensions in Ukraine and franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But CHF sentiment are dented by weaker-than-expected Switzerland 4Q GDP growth of +1.7% on-year (versus forecast +2.1%). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish at oversold zone, but MACD is still in bearish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8790. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8770. The pivot point stands at 0.8855. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8875 and the second target at 0.8910.

Resistance levels:

0.8875

0.8910

0.8935

Support levels:

0.8790

0.8770

0.8750

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting its eight-day high 0.8391 Thursday. It is supported by the weaker dollar sentiment, improved risk appetite, kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the concerns over economic slowdown in China and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is in bullish mode, stochastics is turning bullish and five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.843 and the second target at 0.846. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8350. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8330. The pivot point is at 0.8370.

Resistance levels:

0.843

0.846

0.849

Support levels:

0.8350

0.8330

0.8310

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the improved risk appetite, demand from Japan importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy. But EUR/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, tensions over Ukraine, and speculation that the European Central Bank might ease monetary policy at its meeting next week and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is falling from overbought zone; but MACD is in bullish mode, bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.8 and the second target at 171.2. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.35. The pivot point is at 169.35.

Resistance levels:

170.8

171.2

171.6

Support levels:

169

168.35

167.9

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

The pair remains in the bearish impulse initiated off its peak price around 1.6820 as long as this highest price doesn't get broken through.

The breakdown of 1.6600 is essential to confirm reversal and trigger a stronger pullback, which will pause the short-term bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.6536 (50% Fibonacci Level of the swing between 1.6250/1.6821) and psychological Demand of 1.6500 as well.

Price level 1.6600 seems to be a considerable support for the pair so far. The bears failed to fixate below it on the last bearish attempt on Monday.

Instead, bullish pressure was applied to push again towards 1.6750 and 1.6800.

The bulls were concentrated around 1.6600 considering it as an ideal reversal point.

Stabilization of 1.6600 protected the pair from further decline. This led to a sideway consolidative phase before the ongoing bullish breakout took place Yesterday.

As expected, breakthrough above 1.6666 opened the way towards 1.6740 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent bearish swing depicted on the 4H chart.

Breakthrough above 1.6740 is a must to bring bulls back to push towards 1.6820 again.

On the other hand, stabilization below which traps the pair between it and the backside of the broken channel around 1.6650 (Recent Demand Level).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms are being established on the daily chart. This means the uptrend line established on September 2013 is still intact.

The ongoing bullish impulse is probably targeting at 1.3900 corresponding to 100% Fibonacci Expansion.

The pair failed to reach this price level on the previous attempt that took place on December 2013.

As long as the bulls are defending the recent bottom at 1.3630, the EUR/USD pair remains bullish on the intermediate prospective.

On the other hand, breakdown of 1.3600-1.3630 invalidates the bullish scenario which is least likely to occur based on the given analysis.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Considerable support was provided around 1.6250. This price level corresponds to the previous multiple tops as well as the recent bottom.

A breakthrough above the price zone of 1.6590-1.6660 opened the way directly towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.6820 where the bears established a prominent top.

As expected, a bearish impulse towards 1.6590-1.6660 took place. An ascending bottom was established there on February 25.

The pair is still trapped between 1.6730 (61.8% Fibonacci on the 4H chart) and 1.6590 (lower limit of this congestion zone).

Breakout in either direction will allow enough momentum to be gathered in the same direction of breakout.

Breakdown of 1.6590 clears the way towards a more prominent support around 1.6530 ( Fibonacci 50% on the daily chart) and probably 1.6470 (Fibonacci 61.8% of the same swing).

Price action should be watched at retesting of price zone of 1.6550-1.6470 as a valid BUY entry may be offered with Stop Loss as 4H closure below 1.6500.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 28, 2014 Trend News

After fresh highs have been hit recently, the USD failed to keep its gains against the CAD.

The pair established a prominent top around 1.1220 that pushed the USD/CAD pair back to the previous congestion zone between 1.0850 and 1.0960.

This congestion zone provided considerable support at retesting on February 19. This led again towards 1.1185 where another top was established last Friday.

The bullish rejection expressed at 1.0960 is probably pushing towards 1.1235 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci.

Daily fixation above 1.1235 opens the way directly towards the next resistance level around 1.1650 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci.

On the other hand, bearish rejection off the current levels will push the pair again towards 1.0950 then 1.0850 as initial targets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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#USDX Technical analysis for February 28, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is negatively influenced by the higher than expected CPI announced for EUROZONE today as EURUSD is its major component. The Dollar index is making lower lows breaking below important support at 80 and 79.95. Trend is down and unless the US GDP makes a surprise that strengthens the Dollar, we should expect the Dollar index to test 79.75 support and why not push even lower towards 79.

The weakness was evident as prices were hardly making a move above the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This downward break is a very bearish sign for the dollar as the entire sideways move could be a bearish flag. Short-term support is found at 79.75 and short-term resistance is found at 80.40.

The Dollar index is braking down sharply as EURUSD is making a move above the important resistance of 1.38. Bulls should have been stopped as prices have broken below our support at 80.15. The divergence in RSI on the daily chart above is making us cautious as to whether we should take part in this downward move.

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Gold technical analysis for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has back tested the broken support trend line and is now moving lower to test the short-term low at $1,325. Gold price has made a lower high at $1,335 and this is a bearish sign. The inability of bulls to break above $1,340 has pushed the precious metal lower. As long as Gold price trades below $1,335, we remain bearish with $1,305 as a minimum target.

Short-term support is found at $1,325. Short-term resistance is at $1,335. Breaking above $1,335 will open the way to $1,360. Now the trend is down and we expect the Gold price to continue lower towards $1,305. The ichimoku cloud as shown in the chart above shows clearly that Gold is near supportive levels. Breaking below $1,305 will push the Gold price towards $1,280.

The daily chart shows how close to resistance Gold is now and why we expected the reversal at this level. Important support on a daily basis is $1,305 and important resistance is at $1,340. We remain bearish as we believe this downward move maybe the start of something bigger or at least its downward correction is not yet finished. Stop for bears is $1,335.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6560

R2: 1.6496

R1: 1.6397

Current spot: 1.6314

S1: 1.6291

S2: 1.6253

S3: 1.6214

Technical summary:

We were looking for a wave 2 correction towards 1.6445, but it has extended lower and is currently testing support at 1.6290. The downside is limited from here and under no circumstances should we see a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252. In the short term we will be looking for a break above resistance at 1.6397 as the first good indication that wave 2 is over and wave 3 higher towards 1.7141 is developing. Only a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252 will invalidate our bullish count, but even if we see a break below 1.6252, the downside potential should be limited.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6510 with stop placed at 1.6210. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above resistance at 1.6397.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.07

R2: 141.27

R1: 140.29

Current spot: 139.47

S1: 138.68

S2: 137.55

S3: 136.22

Technical summary:

The downside pressure has been stronger than we expected, therefore we have to consider the possibility that wave b of the decline from 145.69 already is in place and wave c lower towards 126.00 is developing. In the short term a break below support at 138.68 is needed to confirm that wave b is indeed in place and wave c developing. However, as long as support at 138.68 is protecting the downside there is a possibility that one last rally closer to 142.26 will be seen.

Trading кecommendation:

We will sell EUR at 142.00 or upon a break below 138.65.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Jobless claims rose more than expected. The indicator climbed last week to one-month high. Yellen said the Fed would watch carefully the signs of further growth to remain. These factors made the US dollar weaker and gold jumped to the crucial resistance level at $1,336.0. In our yesterday's report we stated, until gold crosses the level of $1,336.0, we can't see up move. Yesterday, gold exactly tested $1,335.90.

During the Asia's trading session, gold is trading at the level of $1,331.0.

Downside-

· We could expect the targets in the near term at $1,318, $1,307, $1,300$, and $1,285.

· Unable to sustain above 50SMA at the level of $1,336.0.

· $1,321-$1,318.0 is the major support zone.

· A day close below the level of $1,318.0 will push gold towards $1,307.0, $1,300.0, and $1,286.0.

· Trend changes a day close below $1,245.0.

· RSI favors the downside in the daily chart.

· Broken the rising, supporting trend line.

Upside-

· The price is trading above 200DEMA in the daily and hourly charts.

· $1,336.0 and $1,346.0 is the strong resistance zones

· RSI favours upside in the hourly chart (pullback)

· A day close above the level of $1,336.0 will move gold towards $1,345.0 and $1,361.0

Recommendations-

· Intraday- The area above $1,333.0 only looks safe for bulls

· More strength only if the price breaks above $1,336.0 towards $1,345.0

· Close above $1,336.0 only hope for next up move. Until sell on rallies

· On positional basis, until the price trades above $1,346.0, we can't see higher levels

$1,245 < $1,286 < $1,300 < $1,307 < $1,320-$1,318 > $1,336 > $1,346 > $1,361

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Technical analysis of DJIA for February 28, 2014 Trend News

The Dow sold off in January from the long term trend line where 16,700 is the strong resistance levels. In our previous reports, a couple of times we gave an alert to Dow close above the level of 16,700, we can't see the upside wave. After the decline the Dow has rallied and reached towards 16,300 levels. Currently, the Dow has been trying to hold above the 50SMA for last 5 trading days, it succeeds in this instance. Any day close below 16,139 rises another bearish view. RSI is still in the uptrend in the hourly and daily charts. The recent low made on February 20, 2014 at the level of 16,006 is the trend changing level. If the Dow crosses 16,300, another 165 will add on the charts towards 16,465.

S1 16,139 R1 16,300

S2 16,006 R2 16,465

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Technical analysis of Crude for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Crude completed a 5 wave up move, and daily momentum indicators are in sell mode now. The up move was stopped at 61.8%, at the level $103.79. Till a buy signal shows up again or $104 is surpassed, the best possibility is that another decline started for the targets at $99, $96 and would be the first support followed by $93. Below the level of $93, next strong support comes at $91 and $85. In the daily and hourly charts RSI is giving a sell indication, and in the daily chart RSI gave a break down indication, which can be followed by the price as well. A day close below $101.80 rises more bearish views.

S1 $101 R1 $103

S2 $98 R2 $104

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m.The US will release the economic data such as the US-Prelim GDP q/q, US-Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, US-Chicago PMI, US-Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, US-Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, US-Pending Home Sales m/m , so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3775.

Strong Resistance:1.3766.

Original Resistance: 1.3753.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3740.

Target Inner Area: 1.3707.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3674.

Original Support: 1.3661.

Strong Support: 1.3648.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3639.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3661 and 1.3753. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3648 and by 1.3766 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3639 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3775 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3674 and at 1.3740, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3707.

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Manufacturing PMI, Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Retail Sales y/y, Housing Starts y/y; and the US will release some economic data such as US-Prelim GDP q/q, US-Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, US-Chicago PMI, US-Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, US-Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, US-Pending Home Sales m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.41.

Resistance. 2: 102.21.

Resistance. 1: 102.01.

Support. 1: 101.77.

Support. 2: 101.57.

Support. 3: 101.37.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.37) and resistance 3 (102.41). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair loos to have formed a lower top around 141.00 region. Prices are pushing lower below 139.00 and hence recommendations are to hold short positions taken earlier. Risk remains at 143.00.

2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00, followed by 143.00 and 145.50, while supports are spread through 136.20/30 (intermediary), followed by 134.00/135.00, 131.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that bears are in control below 143.00. Prices should continue to drift lower towards 135.00/136.00 and subsequently towards 132.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop at 143.50, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair still remains below 1.4950/60. It is recommended to remain flat for now and enter again after a break below 1.4700 or 1.4950/60.

2. Immediate resistance is at 1.4950/60 (intermediary), followed by 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4620/30 (intermediary), followed by 1.4550, 1.4350 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF needs to breakout of either 1.4950/60 or 1.4700 for further directional clarity.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 28, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver is preparing pullback towards $21.70/80 levels from here. It is recommended to initiate short positions there, with risk around $22.50. A meaningful retracement is expected lower towards $20.50/00.

2. Immediate resistance is at $22.20/30 (intermediary), followed by $23.00, while supports are spread through $20.50/00 (fibonacci retracement), followed by $19.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that Silver is expected to counter rally towards atleast $21.70/80 levels from here and then lower towards $20.50/00. Past resistance turned support region is of interest at $20.50.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions at $21.70/80, set stop at $22.50, target is at $20.50.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 28, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is pulling back towards $1,336.00/38.00 levels at the moment. Please note that these are intraday/interday resistance levels and recommendations are to initiate short positions there. Risk remains at $1,348.50.

2. Immediate resistance is at $1,361.00, followed by $1,375.00, while supports are spread through $1,307.00, $1,230.00/20.00, $1,210.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that an intermediary top might have formed ahead of major resistance at $1,345.00 now. Implications are for a meaningful retracement towards $1,280.00/70 or lower.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions between $1,336.00/38.00, set stop at $1,348.50, target is at $1,287.00.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX found strong resistance near the 80.55 level and now the USDX is consolidating below the level of 80.35. However, it could be forming a bullish pattern to continue rising as the USDX has been in a bullish bias in recent days, so the next target would be the resistance level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is entering positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX made a bearish rebound at the 200-day moving average, so it is very likely for the USDX to fall to the support level of 80.15. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 80.09. On the other hand, if the USDX consolidates above the 200-day moving average, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.00. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and into negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has found support at the 200-day moving average, so there are still chances that the USDX will make a bullish rebound above that level. However, if the USDX does make a breakout in the support level of 80.15, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.88. On the other hand, if the USDX manages to consolidate above the 80.35 level, it is expected to rise to the level of 80.59. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 80.15, take profit is at 79.88, and stop loss is at 80.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The pair managed to recover from the fall that was below the support level of 1.6663, and now the GBP/USD is trying to consolidate above this level. It is very likely that this pair will begin to be dominated by the strength of the bulls, so its bullish bias in this chart could be strengthened in the coming hours, due to the strength of the sterling. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and entering negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD has consolidated above the support level of 1.6667, but we must stress that this pair formed a fractal near the 1.6700 level. If the pair manages to break that level, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6775. On the other hand, if the pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6667, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6644. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: In this chart, the GBP/USD is forming a lower high pattern above the point of control at the level of 1.6680, so it is very likely that this pair will rise to the resistance level of 1.6700. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, one would expect that the GBP/USD made a strong bullish consolidation. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6650.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for February 27, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair has managed to complete the corrective double three pattern from Feb 17 in the early London session today, so we need to focus more on upward movements in this pair next. In the 1-hour chart of the AUD/USD pair, we can see that the price has bounced exactly from the equal legs between waves [w] and [y], and now while the price manages to stay above the 0.8902 level, we are going to focus only on the buying opportunity in the blue C wave, that could take an impulsive pattern. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should extend 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.9326 (100% of wave A). If the price makes a new low below the 0.8903 level, we must go with idea that wave B is still incomplete cycle and we should wait for the next support level at 0.8869 to come before we try another setup.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.8850, (S2) 0.8896, (S1) 0.8932, (PP) 0.8978, (R1) 0.9014, (R2) 0.9060, (R3) 0.9096.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.8940 with stop loss at 0.8903 and take profit at 0.9326 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has continued trading in an uptrend, corrective wave (a) (coloured green) of the bigger wave [c] (coloured black) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of the pair, we can see that the ascending move from the 1.1052 level has already showed us five waves, wave (a) should be over at the New York session high at the 1.1149 level. While price remain above the 1.1052 we are going to focus only on the buying opportunity that should come with a test of the 1.1100 level, 50% of the length of the wave (a). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (c) should extend 100% of wave (a), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (a) with take profit at 1.1195 (100% of wave (a)). The RSI indicator, on the 1-hour chart shows divergence that confirm impulsive wave idea inside the (a) wave, and we should see another divergence when we see the end of the (c) wave.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.1016, (S2) 1.1044, (S1) 1.1087, (PP) 1.1115, (R1) 1.1158, (R2) 1.1186, (R3) 1.1229.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1100 with stop loss at 1.1052 and take profit at 1.1195 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.43 versus 80.14 early Wednesday) after surprise 9.6% rise in the U.S. new home sales to five-year high of 468,000 in January from December's revised 427,000 (versus forecast for drop to 401,000). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and expansionary Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan' exports sales; lower U.S. Treasury yields; unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 4.97% to 14.35, S&P closed flat overnight) on mounting tensions over Ukraine as Russia put its armed forces on alert Wednesday and persistent uncertainty about China's yuan policy as the renminbi fell to seven-month lows against the U.S. dollar Wednesday. The People's Bank of China said Wednesday that the CNY selloff was a reflection of market forces and should not be overinterpreted, but the PBOC has been steadily lowering its daily reference rate since the yuan started falling last week.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.35. The pivot point stands at 102.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.50 and the second target at 102.75.

Resistance levels:

102.50

102.75

103.05

Support levels:

101.65

101.35

101

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, soft commodity prices and kiwi sales on weak NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and concerns over economic slowdown in China. But the kiwi sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected New Zealand January trade surplus of NZ$306 million (versus NZ$221 million forecast). NZD/USD losses are also tempered by the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary-policy stance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.839 and the second target at 0.843. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8240. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8205. The pivot point is at 0.828.

Resistance levels:

0.839

0.843

0.846

Support levels:

0.824

0.8205

0.8165

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is buoyed by the positive dollar sentiment; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is turning bullish at oversoldzone, negative MACD histogram bars are contracting.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8855 and the second target at 0.883. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.893. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.895. The pivot point is at 0.888.

Resistance levels:

0.893

0.895

0.897

Support levels:

0.8855

0.883

0.88

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Gold analysis for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, just like we expected, the price tested the level of 1,322.26. The Gold rejected from our critical resistance area at the price of 1,338.00. We got FR 61.8% at the price of 1,338.00 and that level held successfully, which is a good sign for the potential bearish movements. According to daily chart, we can observe supply on volume above the average. Anyway, to confirm further downward movement, we need to see stronger supply on the market on high volume. My advice is to watch for potential bearish movement. I've placed Fibonacci levels to find first down stations and i got submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,304.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,280.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,341.74

R2: 1,347.10

R3: 1,355.77

Support levels:

S1: 1,324.40

S2: 1,319.04

S3: 1,310.37

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since Gold is around critical area and we are also on the high new ground.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1.6308 on ultra high volume (selling climax). We can observe selling climax at the price of 1.6308, which is sign that selling at this stage looks risky. The level of 1.6308 is major support for this pair since we have there major corrective Fibonacci expansion 61.8%. We can also observe submajor corrective Fibonacci expansion level 161.8% at the price of 1.6335. Be careful with selling since we may see the end of bearish corrective phase (abcd) and we also have selling climax on the low new ground. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. Any larger demand on the high volume may confirm potential bullish continution phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6514

R2: 1.6536

R3: 1.6571

Support levels:

S1: 1.6445

S2 : 1.6423

S3: 1.6389

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and Japan exporter sales, and speculation that the European Central Bank might ease monetary policy at its meeting next week. But EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish in overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 169. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 168.35. The pivot point stands at 170.3. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.8 and the second target at 171.2.

Resistance levels:

170.8

171.2

171.6

Support levels:

169

168.35

167.9

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The USD/CHF pair looks to have bottomed out at 0.8850 levels yesterday. The trading signal appeared is a morning star which indicates that the next move is higher from here. It is recommended to initiate long positions now (0.8904) and also add further on dips. Risk is at 0.8800 on the lower side.

2. Immediate support is at 0.8850, followed by 0.8800, while resistance is at 0.9150 (intermediary), followed by 0.9250 and 0.9450 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that USD/CHF has bottomed out and is ready to rally towards 0.9300 and 0.9700 in the weeks to come. A major reversal seems to be possible for now and strategy should remain buying on dips.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions, stop is at 0.8800, targets are at 0.93 and 0.97.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The USD/JPY pair is facing resistance at the fibonacci 0.382 level (102.50) of fall from 105.50 to 100.50. It is recommended to initiate short positions now (101.90). Risk remains at 104.00. A push above 104.00 would enable bulls to re-test 105.50.

2. Immediate resistance is at 103.50/104.50, followed by 105.50, while support is at 100.50 (intermediary), followed by 100.50 (trend line), 97.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that till prices are below 104.00/50, bears shall remain in control and push prices lower towards 100.00. A break of the trendline support would see 97.00 and lower levels.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% short positions, stop is at 104.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/USD pair has finally tested and reversed from 1.3770/80 levels. The multi month trend line support has also been broken and tested, as seen here. It is recommended to initiate short positions now (1.3650), and also add further on rallies.

2. Immediate resistance is 1.3800, followed by 1.3890, while supports are spread through 1.3500, followed by 1.3300 and 1.3200 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that the pair might have formed a major top at 1.3890 and subsequently a lower top at 1.3780/90. The minimum implications from here is into 1.3500's and then 1.3000's.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions now, stop is at 1.3850, target is open.

Good luck!

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#USDX Technical analysis for February 27, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a sharp turn upwards breaking shor-term resistance at 80.40. This was our buy signal and a cancelation of the bearish flag pattern. Combined with the fact that the Dollar index has bounced upwards again from the important 80 level, makes us confident that this upward move has potential to reach near 81.

Now that the index has broken above the previous high and the 38% Fibonacci retracement, there is increased chance of seeing the index near 80.75 to 81. The next short-term resistance is found at 80.65 and then at 80.80. Short-term support is found at 80.35 and then at 80.15-10.

The daily chart is getting closer to our target once 80.40 was broken. The pattern in the Dollar index is bullish as we see higher highs and higher lows. Important resistance is found in the area included inside the blue rectangle. Breaking above the blue rectangle resistance area will increase chances of testing the highs near 81.30-40. We are bullish the Dollar index with 80.15-80 stop.

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Gold technical analysis for February 27, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has reversed from the 61.8% retracement level at $1,340. Gold price has turned lower as the divergencies in RSI indicator were signalling weakness. The downward move has broken the short-term supportive trend line and Gold price is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud support.

Short-term support is found at $1,320-14. Short-term resistance is found at $1,330. Short-term trend has changed to down and as we noted in our last couple of posts, we were expecting that a downward move was near and that bulls should have raised their stops to $1,332. If the cloud support breaks, we should expect Gold price to move towards the longer-term upward sloping red trend line.

Gold price has made a short-term top at the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement. This reversal was expected by our previous analysis due to the Fibonacci resistance and the divergencies in RSI. Now we remain bearish as Gold price has hit our bullish stop level at $1,332. If Gold price makes a new higher high, then we will turn bullish again. If Gold price reaches $1,280-90, we will also think of changing to bullish again.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 27-28, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair is going to move between the level of 1.6703 and 1.6620. Hence, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be around 120 pips. The resistance has set at the level of 1.6754 for two weeks. Equally important, the support has set at 1.6544, consequently the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.6754, because the level of 1.6754 is going to act as strong resistance. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below this level today or tomorrow with the first target of 1.6640 in order to try to break the weekly pivot point in H1 chart. Furthermore, if the trend manages to close below 1.6640, then the market will be continuing in downtrend below the weekly pivot point towards the level of 1.6544 on February 27 and February 28, 2014.

Technical levels :

• R3: 1.6786


• R2: 1.6744


• R1: 1.6706


• PP: 1.6664


• S1: 1.6626


• S2: 1.6584


• S3: 1.6546

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