Monday 23 June 2014

Intraday analysis of gold for June 24, 2014 Trend News

GOLD


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Weekly- The yellow metal moved to lower levels in yesterday's session and regain its strength at 200-day Ema at $1,309.50, changed its direction towards the previous highs. Gold made a minor top at $1,321.50 until it breaches it, it is not safe to enter fresh longs. On the down side, it has strong support at $1,309.50 levels, below this, $1,306 is an immediate support. This week, bulls must close above $1,300 levels to continue their rally towards $1,330 and $1,370 levels.


Fresh buying is only above $1,3212 for $1,327.50, $1,330.70 and $1,334.60 levels.


GOLDH4.png

Intraday-


In Asia's session the metal is trading at $1,314.90 levels. The resistance level existed at $1,318 and $1,321.50 levels and support is at $1,314, $1,309.50, $1,304.40 and $1,299 levels. The RSI gave an early warning of the support level in the h4 chart. For an intraday basis the metal looks weak below $1,312.50 and strong above $1,319.50 levels. Until the metal breaches $1,319.50-$1,3221.50, traders can use selling on the rise strategy for $1,304-$1,303 levels (panic is only below $1,309).


NOTE- cmp $1,314.90.


Sell below $1,312.50 for targets at $1,309.50, $1,306.50 and $1,304-$1,303 or sell at $1,317.50.


Resistance zone is $1,318.50-$1,319.50-$1,321.50.


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Technical analysis of GBP/NZD for June 24, 2014 Trend News

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It has been in an uptrend from 1.9080 levels. It paused its rally at the 61.8 fib level and rejected at 50-week Sma. In the daily chart, the pair is trading below the major short-term averages. The 200-day Ema level is acting as a heavy resistance level. In Asia's session the pair made a high at 1.9555 and started moving lower. It has resistance at 1.9557, above this, 1.9597-1.9616 levels. We recommend fresh longs above 1.9616 for 1.9690 and 1.9810 levels.


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It has support at 1.9510 levels. Until the pair breaches 1.9616, selling on the rise is the best strategy for 1.90 levels. If the pair breaks the down side symmetric trend line, we can see huge selling pressure up to 1.9437 and 1.9355 (minor double bottom). The panic will be triggered below 1.9355 for 1.9270, 1.9092 and 1.90 levels.


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Forecast of USD/ZAR for June 24, 2014 Trend News

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The pair took support at the previous resistance trend line of 2012-2013. The resistance became support at 10.26 levels. Currently it is trading at 10.5895. The support is between 10.38-10.26 levels within minor support at 10.54 levels. Until the pair holds these support levels, we can expect another pull back up to 10.96 and 11.50 levels. For an intraweek basisi, it has support at 10.5282, 10.4686 and 10.4093 levels.


Until the pair holds 10.5282 on a closing basis, the upside target at 11.50 is open.


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Technical analysis of Silver for June 24, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver has broken out of resistance line and also taken out the $20.40 levels last week. The metal is expected to retrace lower at the moment before rallying further up.


2. Support is seen at $19.50, followed by $19.00, $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $21.70, followed by $22.30 and higher up respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver could resume rally after a meaningful pullback into $19.50 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive setup would be to initiate short positions, stop at $21.50, target is open. Or remain flat looking to buy lower.


Good luck!


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Short-term forecast on EUR/JPY for June 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview-- The pair has been in a down trend from 145.68 levels. Last week it took support near 50-week Sma levels. The pair looks safe for bulls only above 138.86 levels. Until the pair breaches 143.78, it has an open target at 134.50 on the down side. On the down side, it has support at 137.48 (50-week Sma) and 136.20 levels.


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In the short term the pair has support at 137.70 and resistance at 138.86 levels. On the upside, if the pair breaches 138.86, it has another strong resistance level at 139.31 and 139.86 levels. On the down side, it has strong support at 200-day Ema, breaking below this, it will extend its downward journey up to 136.20 and 134 levels.


Intraweek- sell on the rally with sl 139.32.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for June 24, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair is expected to correct till 1.5080/1.5100 levels before rallying further. Please note that past resistance turned support, trend line and fibonacci 0.618 support are all seen converging around the same region.


2. Support is seen at 1.4960, followed by 1.4780, 1.4650 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5300 levels.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF shall remain in the buy zone until 1.4980 levels remain intact.


Trading recommendations:


Go long around 1.5100, stop at 1.4900, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate, Belgian NBB Business Climate. The US will release the economic data too such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3666.

Strong Resistance:1.3658.

Original Resistance: 1.3645.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3632.

Target Inner Area: 1.3600.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3568.

Original Support: 1.3555.

Strong Support: 1.3542.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3534.


DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3555 and 1.3645. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3542 and by 1.3658 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3534 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3666 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3568 and at 1.3632, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3600.


Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 24, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will not release any news, and the US will release some economic data such as S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day. TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.35.

Resistance. 2: 102.15.

Resistance. 1: 101.95.

Support. 1: 101.71.

Support. 2: 101.51.

Support. 3: 101.31. DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.31) and resistance 3 (102.35). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today. Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for June 24, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX continues to strengthen the current bearish trend, because the USDX has consolidated back below the 200 SMA Now, probably in the next few hours, the USDX will fall to the support level of 80.11, which has been a strong level in the current bearish of the USDX. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX has been consolidated within the range between 80.34 and 80.24 levels. If the USDX does make a breakout at the resistance level of 80.34, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.60, which would be a bullish consolidation. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the level of 79.93, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.50. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX has made a successful breakout at the support level of 80.35, so far, the USDX will try to fall to the level of 80.15. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.88. For now, the USDX is very strong in the current bearish trend. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 80.15, take profit is at 79.88, and stop loss is at 80.42.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment as U.S. stocks rose on Friday (S&P 500 hit record high 1963.91 before closing up 0.17% at 1962.87) on investor optimism over major central banks' accommodative policies, although the CBOE Volatility Index VIX rose 2.17% Friday to 10.85. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 80.36 versus 80.32 early Friday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.70. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.60. The pivot point stands at 102. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.15 and the second target at 102.30.


Resistance levels:

102.15

102.30

102.45


Support levels:

101.70

101.60

101.45


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is supported by the broadly firmer dollar undertone and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is staged bearish crossover against 15-day MA.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8935. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8920. The pivot point stands at 0.8975. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9 and the second target at 0.9015.


Resistance levels:

0.9

0.9015

0.9045


Support levels:

0.8935

0.8920

0.89


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to to trade in a range. It is undermined by the broadly firmer dollar undertone. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the positive risk appetite and buoyant commodity prices and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8775 and the second target at 0.88. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8635. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.86. The pivot point is at 0.8675.


Resistance levels:

0.8775

0.88

0.8845


Support levels:

0.8635

0.86

0.8560


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. GBP/JPY is supported by the positive risk appetite and demand from the Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japans exporter sales. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.85 and the second target at 174.25. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 172.55. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.85. The pivot point is at 173.


Resistance levels:

173.85

174.25

174.75


Support levels:

172.55

171.85

171.15


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Since the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel, which managed to push towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) for few times.


The market has shown a significant bullish recovery around 1.0830 (bullish engulfing daily candlestick) aiming to push higher towards 1.0910-1.0950 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on March 21.


The USD/CAD pair found solid resistance around 1.0910-1.0950 that was able to pause the ongoing bullish momentum.


The pair was trapped within the depicted congestion zone until bearish breakout occurred to the bearish side of the market.


Bearish projection targets are located around 1.0725, then probably 1.0685 is going to be hit (the lower limit of the ongoing bearish channel ).


Bullish price action will probably originate at retesting of 1.0685-1.0700 which is the origin of the previous bullish impulse initiated in December 2013.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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The price zone 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.


Thus, a Double Top reversal pattern was established with a neckline located at 1.3700. This reversal pattern has already hit its projection levels.


On the other hand, we should highlight Thursday and Monday's bullish engulfing daily candlesticks which emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing 4H channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 ( Key-Level corresponding to previous prominent bottom).


Thus, the EUR/USD bulls finally achieved bullish breakout above 1.3560 by reaching price level of 1.3650 which corresponded to the breakout projection target and the upper limit of the depicted channel as well.


The market keeps showing confusion at retesting of 1.3660. This is manifested in the previous few daily candlestick (an Inverted Hammer of Thursday and a Bearish Doji of Friday ) exposing 1.3560 again for retesting.


Multiple ascending bottoms were established after hitting 1.3500 during June that's why, bullish recovery may originate off these levels as long as the bulls keep defending the recent low around 1.3500.


On the other hand, 4H fixation below 1.3550 would expose lower targets for retesting which is quite far away from happening at the current situation.


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Daily analysis of Silver for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview


Based on the H4 chart above, silver stabilized below the Resistance level of 20.90 after hitting it yesterday then bouncing to take a slightly downward move as shown. If silver continues its bearish move and manages to break the Support level of 20.50, it will produce a strong indicator for the downward move and open the way towards the Support level of 20.20. In this case we should wait for the breakout of this level to continue the bearish move. On the other hand, the breakout of this Resistance level will denote a bullish strength providing new buy-signals from this level till reaching the Resistance level of 21.20 then 21.50.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (21.50), R2 (21.20), R1 (20.90), S1 (20.50), S2 (20.20), S3(20.00).


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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As shown on today's 4H chart, last week the pair closed below the Resistance level of 174.00 and couldn't break it, which means the pair would probably reverse its bullish move this week to take a downward move. Today, the pair has already started its downward move after it hit the Support level of 173.50 and managed to break it through to take a slightly downward move. Currently, the pair is approaching the Support level of 172.75. Therefore, we should stop selling now till breaking this Support level and closing 4H below. In that case the pair will continue its downward move and open the way towards the next Support level of 172.00 to continue its bearish scenario, so we can suppose our first target is few pips above this level.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.40), R2 (174.00), R1 (173.50), S1 (172.75), S2 (172.00), S3 (171.50).


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Gold analysis for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around the price of 1,313.00, so we are waiting for larger movement and larger volume. As you can see in the graph, the price has broken our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,305.00, so we may see possible testing the level of 1,334.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily timeframe, we can observe demand on ultra high volume (buying climax) in the background, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Be careful with buying since we may see potential bearish correction. According to the previous price, action we got support level at the price of 1,284.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,315.51


R2: 1,316.05


R3: 1,316.93


Support levels:


S1: 1,313.75


S2: 1,313.21


S3: 1,312.33


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got buying climax in the background.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for June 23-27, 2014 Trend News

Pivot point formula:



  • Pivot point = (high (previous) + low (previous) + close (previous)) / 3


General idea about the pivot point .



  • Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3. If trend breaks resistance or support through is likely to result in a significant price movement, it is also referred to as a breakout.



1403517380_gbpusd-pp.png


Notes :



  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 1.7012 and 1.6950.

  • The resistance will be set at the level of 1.7075 and the support has already been placed at the price of 1.935.

  • We expect a new range about 160 pips this week.

  • The key level will set at the level of 1.7000.

  • The level of 1.7062 is going to represent the double top.



gbpusdh1.png


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for June 23-27, 2014 Trend News

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD.


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Trading recommendations :



  • The EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.3615 and 1.3563. Thus, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.3581. Right now, the current price is around the level of 1.3581. Moreover, the weekly point has already formed a psychological level at this area. Therefore, buy at the level of 1.3527 (the weekly support one) with the first target at the 1.3592 price (the level of 1.3592 is representing the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels) , then it will call for uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.3642 to test the double top in H1 chart. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.3503. If the trend fails to close above the level of 1.3636, it will a good sign to sell at this level in the short term with targets at 1.36, then it is going to continue towards the 1.3580 price.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 23, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 23/06/2014 10:45 CET


The anticipated breakout finally materialized and the top for wave 2 green correction is in place at the level of 1.09596. According to this chart there are two possible counts, the main and the alternate, that fit to the current situation. The main count indicates that the downward wave progression is in the shape of a WXYXXZ triple three that should complete very soon and a rebound to the upside should happen. On the other hand, the alternate count indicates impulsive wave progression labeled in red on H4 chart. This count suggests the first wave to the downside has been completed and a corrective cycle is needed soon. Any breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.0752 is bullish and weekly pivot might be tested soon.


Support/Resistance:


1.0687 - WS1


1.0716 - Intraday Support


1.0726 - Technical Support


1.0752 - Intraday Resistance


1.0790 - Weekly Pivot


1.0804 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should open buy stop positions if the level of intraday resistance is broken with SL below the level of 1.0716 and TP at the level of 1.0790. Otherwise any new low will support the bearish scenario.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3:1.5641


R2: 1.5597


R1: 1.5580


Current spot: 1.5550


S1: 1.5500


S2: 1.5470


S3: 1.5447


Technical summary:


Blue wave iv seems to have ended early and the finla blue wave v lower towards the ideal target near 1.5447 could already be developing. In the short term we would likely to see minor resistance at 1.5580 protecting the upside for a clear break below 1.5550 for a continuation lower to 1.5500 and the ideal target at 1.5447. Please be aware, that we have entered the final decline and once a bottom is in place we should see a impulsive move higher.


Trading receommendation:


We missed our sell point at 1.5660 and will instead look for a buying opportunity near 1.5447.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 23, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 139.40


R2: 139.18


R1: 138.76


Current spot: 138.74


S1: 138.62


S2: 138.40


S3: 138.09


Technical summary:


We are still looking for a top near 138.76. However as long as minor support at 138.40 is able to protect the downside, a break above 138.76 can not be excluded for a move closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 139.18 before the top is finally in place. That said, a break below minor support at 138.40 will indicate that the top is in place for a continuation lower to 137.72 and lower towards 136.23.


Trading recommendation:


We sold EUR at 138.55 with stop placed at 139.15. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell close to 138.76 or upon a break below 138.40 with the same stop at 139.55.


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#USDX Technical analysis for June 23, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is making lower lows and lower highs. The short-term trend is down but strong support is found at 80.25 as we have not seen a daily close below that level. Short-term price trend is bearish as the index is below Ichimoku cloud and below the red trend line resistance.


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Breaking below 80.20 will be a bearish sign and will most probably push the index towards 80 and below which was our initial target from 80.90. The support area I'm targeting is the 50% retracement as shown in the chart above coloured red. Short-term resistance is found at 80.65 and support at 80.35.


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If we see a daily close below 80.25, we should expect the index to reach the 80 level of even 79.90. From 80.90 I've been bearish targeting the pull back that will touch the Ichimoku cloud support before starting a new upward move to new highs.


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Gold technical analysis for June 23, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has held support at $1,300 on Friday and has moved higher back towards $1,320. The $1,330 target is now very possible. Gold price remains in a short-term up trend and as long as price is trading above $1,306 we should expect Gold price to reach $1,330-40.


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If short-term support at $1,306 is broken we should expect Gold price to pull back towards $1,285 support area as shown in the chart above. The Ichimoku cloud support is found at $1,270. I believe we will soon see $1,330-40 price level.


goldd.jpg

Gold price is most probably under way of wave E as shown in my wave count above. I expect Gold price to reach a top near $1,330-40 and stop the rise from $1,240. If Gold price continues higher and breaks above $1,391 this will cancel my big sideways triangle scenario.


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