Thursday 20 February 2014

Technical analysis of gold for February 21, 2014 Trend News

In Thursday's trading session gold dropped on Fed's further QE tapering decision. The minutes of the FOMC policy meeting indicated that the Fed will continue its tapering program unless there is a change in the economic outlook, and profit taking activity weakentd the gold price. In yesterday's trading session gold exactly took the support of 50.0 fib level. Now gold is trading in a range of 38.2-50.0 fib levels, $ 1,336-$1,307. Either side breakout gives a way for further move. RSI favour bears in the daily and hourly charts. In yesterday's trading session the price came out of the 3-day trading range and made a high at the level of 1324.6.


Weakness still exists in the daily and hourly charts. We recommend selling on any upmove until the price moves above the level of $1,336.0. If the price breaks yesterday's low of $1,307.0, a further fall is expected in coming days towards $1,300.0, $1,290.0, $1,284.0, and $1,274.0. If trades are above $1,325, next targets are at $1,336.0.


Intraday -


S1 $1,316.5 R1 $1,325.0


S2 $1,307.0 R2 $1,332.0


1392946608_GOLDH1.png

Positional-


S1 $1,307.0 R1 $1,325.0


S2 $1,300.0 R1 $1,336.0


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 21, 2014 Trend News

From the last weeks high at the level of 0.9038, it corrected towards the 2-month low at 0.8857, taking support of 0.8860 made on December 30, 2013. Within last 2 trading sessions the pair consolidated near support levels and moved a bit higher at the level of 0.8915. The pair struggled to cross above this level, attempted 4 times but resulted unsuccessfully. In the hourly chart the pair taking support at the level of 0.8887. In Asian trading session the pair is trading at the level of 0.8896 holding above 21 and 40DEMA.


Intraday -


S1 0.8887 R1 0.8906


S2 0.8860 R2 0.8913


1392946885_USDCHFH1.png

If the pair trades above the level 0.8915, it can fly up to 8930. Either side break of the range of 0.8887-0.8915 will allow further move.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Unemployment benefit claims fell last week due to two consecutive months of weak hiring. In January CPI was up 0.01%. The Fed gave a clear picture of their further monetary policy. The USD gained more strength and rallied further. USD/CAD has done a great job. It rallied from 1.0910 to 1.1113. In the beginning of this week, we recommended the USD pairs attractive trade setup near crucial support zone. Everything's gone good.


The pair was unable to cross the crucial resistance level of 1.1124. The pair formed a triple top at the level of 1.1124 (hourly chart) and went through a correction. In the yesterday's trading session the pair was unable to touch the resistance level and made a high at the level of 1.1113. Currently it is acting as resistance and 1.1094 as a support level. To break either side, we can't see further price action.


In the hourly chart RSI indicating a negative divergence. If the price trades above the resistance level of 1.1113, it can fly up to 1.1124 and 1.1133.


USDCADH1.png

Intraday -


S1 1.1090 R1 1.1113


S2 1.1081 R2 1.1124


S3 1.1059 R2 1.1133


USDCADH12.png

Positional-


S1 1.1024 R1 1.1124


S2 1.0952 R2 1.1133


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, there is no economic data news to be released today.The US will release the economic data as the US-Existing Home Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day because this is the Third Friday in this month means many options will be expired.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3785.


Strong Resistance:1.3776.


Original Resistance: 1.3763.


Inner Sell Area: 1.3750.


Target Inner Area: 1.3717.


Inner Buy Area: 1.3684.


Original Support: 1.3671.


Strong Support: 1.3658.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.3649.


DESCRIPTION:


Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3671 and 1.3763. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3658 and by 1.3776 as strong resistance.


If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3649 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3785 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3684 and at 1.3750, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3717.




Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 21, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and the US will release the economic data such as US-Existing Home Sale. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 102.95.


Resistance. 2: 102.75.


Resistance. 1: 102.55.


Support. 1: 102.30.


Support. 2: 102.10.


Support. 3: 101.90.


DESCRIPTION:


Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.90) and resistance 3 (102.95). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.




Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX continues bullish movements above the support level of 80.11, but remember that the USDX could be forming a higher low pattern. If the USDX makes a breakout at the level of 80.11, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.19. Furthermore, if the USDX continues with the bullish bias, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is oversold.


1392938239_usdxdaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the bullish trend line, which is near the 80.25 level. If the USDX makes a breakout at the level of 80.48, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.65, where the 200 SMA is. On the other hand, it is very likely that the USDX will try a bearish rebound at current levels and fall to the level of 80.09. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


usdxh4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is finding resistance at the 200 SMA and the 80.35 level. These levels could slow future increases in the USDX as the USDX continues in a long downtrend, so it is advisable to place sell orders at this crucial point. However, if the USDX makes a breakout at the level of 80.35, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.59. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


1392938257_usdxh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 80.15, take profit is at 79.88, and stop loss is at 80.42.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: This pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6663, as the GBP/USD has been very weak this week, so it is very likely to fall last until the support level of 1.6540 in the medium term. However, remember that the GBP/USD is forming a lower high pattern, which would be a corrective movement for the current trend. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


gbpusddaily.png


H4 chart: The GBP/USD remains above the support level of 1.6644, but the short-term bearish bias remains intact, so it is very likely that this pair will try to reach the 200 SMA. However, consolidation does not rule over the bullish trend line at the 1.6730 level and the pair is trying to climb up to the resistance level of 1.6820. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.


1392938124_gbpusdh4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6629, which is close to the 200 SMA. Now this pair is encountering strong resistance near the 1.6680 level, where the point of control is. If this pair makes a breakout at the 1.6700 level, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6750. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


1392938133_gbpusdh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6650.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

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Trading recommendations :



  • The NZD/USD pair is in the short term.

  • It should be noted that the market will turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 0.8335. Additionally, the resistance will be set at the level of 0.8350. Also, we expect a new range of 66 pips today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at the 0.8335 price with the first target of 0.8275. Furthermore, it will continue in downtrend in order to keep its bearish movement towards 0.8242 (it should also note that the level of 0.8242 is going to form double bottom).

  • Notwithstanding, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, the stop loss should be placed above 0.8350 at the price of 0.8373.


Intraday technical levels :



  • R3: 0.8376

  • R2: 0.8339

  • R1: 0.8315

  • PP: 0.8278

  • S1: 0.8254

  • S2: 0.8217

  • S3: 0.8193


Notes :



  • Range: 66 pips.

  • Risk of 66 pips must make a profit of 99 pips.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

gbpusdh1.png

Overview :



  • It should be noted that the price of the GBP/USD pair was not stable because the trend has been moving between 1.6630 and 1.6710 since February 17, 2014. Accordingly, it is of the wisdom to be careful in this area. So, the first step is waiting in this spot before investing. As a result, it will probably be that the GBP/USD pair is going to start showing the signs of bullish market at the level of 1.6555. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above the price of 1.6555 with the first target of 1.6628 in order to test the weekly pivot point and it will call for uptrend to continue its bullish movement towards 1.6822 for forming double top in H1 chart. However, If the pair could not break 1.6822. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.6830. Thus, the level will be acted as strong resistance on February 21, 2014. for that, it is providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.6766. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.6873.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 20, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.19 versus 80.00 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed support for the current pace of cutbacks to its bond-buying program and the Fed's officials also started to debate when to begin raising interest rates, with a few arguing, a rate increase may be appropriate "relatively soon." USD/JPY is also supported after Fed's Bullard told The Wall Street Journal that a strong U.S. economy is facing its best prospects since the financial crisis will likely allow the Federal Reserve to steadily reduce its monthly bond purchases, while Fed's Williams reiterated the bar is high for the Fed to change course on winding down its bond-buying program, bigger-than-expected 0.2% on-month rise in the U.S. January PPI (versus +0.1% forecast), higher U.S. Treasury yields; demand from Japan importers and loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But the dollar sentiment is dented by larger-than-expected 16.0% fall in the U.S. January housing starts (versus forecast 4.9% decrease) and 5.4% drop in the U.S. January building permits (versus forecast 1.1% decrease). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese export sales and unwinding of the JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.75% to 15.5, S&P fell 0.65% overnight) as minutes from last month's Fed meeting bolstered expectations for the steady pace of withdrawal of stimulus.


Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.5 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.2. The pivot point stands at 102.45. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103.05.


Resistance levels:

102.75

103.05

103.45


Support levels:

101.5

101.2

100.95


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 20, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 169. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 168.25. The pivot point stands at 170.70. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.30 and the second target at 172.15.


Resistance levels:

171.30

172.15

173


Support levels:

169

168.25

167.1


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 20, 2014 Trend News

NZDUSDM30.png


Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range with limited upside. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and 0.7% on-quarter drop in New Zealand 4Q producer input prices and 0.4% drop in output prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought, positive MACD histogram bars are contracting, five-day moving average is declining.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.831 and the second target at 0.833. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8205. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.818. The pivot point is at 0.824.


Resistance levels:

0.831

0.833

0..835


Support levels:

0.8205

0.818

0.816


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 20, 2014 Trend News

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range after hittingits near eight-week low at 0.8854 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, drop in Switzerland's ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to 28.7 in February from 36.4 in January and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15 day moving averages are declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.883. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8795. The pivot point stands at 0.8855. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.883 and the second target at 0.8795.


Resistance levels:

0.891

0.893

0.865




Support levels:


0.883

0.8795

0.875


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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for February 20, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
After two weeks of trading in the strong downtrend, the USD/CAD pair found support yesterday at the 1.0905 level, and we can currently see the price trading around the 1.1070/80 area. In the 1-hour chart of the pair, we can see that upper channel line has been broken after an ascending move from 1.0905 towards the 1.1092 level that happened yesterday during early New York session. Today, we must go with idea that corrective wave (X) (coloured red) has completed down cycle from the 1.1227 level and we are going to look for a fresh buying opportunity in the next pullbacks towards the 1.1021-1.0999 area , that will end the wave (ii) (coloured green). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1282 (161.8% of wave (i)). To protect our long positions we can use support at 1.0949 as stop loss level.


Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0786, (S2) 1.0848, (S1) 1.0962, (PP) 1.1024, (R1) 1.1138, (R2) 1.1200, (R3) 1.1314.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1020 with stop loss at 1.0949 and take profit at 1.1282 are recommended.


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GOLD analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1,308.46 on average volume. This bearish movement may signal the end of the major bullish corrective phase. We saw decreasing volume on upper leg, which casued the price to start bearish phase. The price rejected from our FR 61.8% (1,324.00), as like we expected. Be careful with buying at this stage since we may see more downward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find possible down stations and I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1,297.00 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1,274.00. I also placed Fibonacci expansion levels to find the very first down stations and I got FE 61.8% at the price of 1,313.00 (reached) and FE 100% at the price of 1,306.00. Our next down station is FE 100% at the price of 1,306.00. My advice is to watch for potential bearish movement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,319.59


R2: 1,322.75


R3: 1,327.87


Support levels:


S1: 1,309.35


S2: 1,306.19


S3: 1,301.07


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since we got decreasing volume on upper leg and Gold is near high new ground.


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EUR/NZD analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6668 on ultra high volume (selling climax). We can observe selling climax at the price of 1.6511, so selling at this stage looks risky. The EUR/NZD tested our first major upper station FE 61.8 % at the price of 1.6600 and after that we saw rejection. Our first major target has been reached and now we must wait and see for the potential break the level of 1.6666 which may confirm futher upward direction. Next major upper station is a level around the price of 1.6790 (FE 100%). Since EUR/NZD is now is in bearish correction phase and I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bearish corrective phase. I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1.6510 (currently on the test) and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.6410. I also got submajor FR 61.8 % at the price of 1.6455. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6616


R2: 1.6650


R3: 1.6705


Support levels:


S1: 1.6506


S2 : 1.6472


S3: 1.6417


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/02/2014 11:10 CET

Five impulsive waves to the downside has been finished and now the first leg of the corrective cycle is in progress. Judging by the shape of the correction, it looks like a ZigZag pattern and the key level to the upside here is at the level of 1.1024. Any breakout lower would make this corrective cycle more complex and time consuming. The first upside target is at the level of 1.1121. Support/Resistance: 1.1121- Target for wave c green 1.1088 - Technical Resistance 1.1063 - Intraday Support 1.1051 - WR1 1.1024 - Key Level 1.0994 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations: The downside break out below the level of 1.1063 means short positions should be opened with SL above the level of 1.1093 and TP at the level of 1.1024.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/02/2014 10:30 CET


The blue impulsive bullish count has been invalidated and now the alternate count is developing. This count indicates more complex and time consuming wave (ii) green as the overall impulsive structure has not been finished. It is still possible that wave c green is in progress now and further price deterioration is being anticipated to a minimum level of 138.57. The key level to the upside is red impulsive count invalidation line at the level of 140.02.


Currently, the price is in corrective cycle of sub-wave 4 red of a minor intraday degree and there is a possibility that golden trend line might be tested from the bottom and get rejected. The downtrend would have resume then and this market would go lower.


Only a clear break out above the key level invalidates the bearish impulsive count.


Support/Resistance:


140.22 - WR1


140.02 - Key Level


139.49 - Intraday Resistance


139.42 - Weekly Pivot


139.18 - 35%Fibo


138.57 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


As long as the golden trend line provides the resistance for the price, sell positions should be opened with SL above the level of 140.02 and TP at the level of 138.57 with a possible downside extension.


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#USDX Technical analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a double bottom as expected at the important support of 79.95. The Dollar index was in oversold area as we mentioned in our previous analysis. This justified the bounce we were expecting. The Dollar index is rising again above 80 and is targeting the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 80.45. This is our short-term target. The Dollar index has broken out the downward sloping channel and this is something that confirms our bullish view.


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The Dollar index is expected to find short-term resistance at the black upward sloping trend line resistance. At this resistance, prices got rejected the last time we reached the trend line. Now we expect the Dollar index to break above this trend line.


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The daily chart confirms our bullish view as there is a bottom formation complete at 79.90-80 range and we now expect a bounce at least towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Our target for this bounce to complete is the resistance area at 80.60-75. We remain bullish.


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Gold technical analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

Gold price had reached overbought levels, and in our past analysis we mentioned how crucial it was for the bullish trend to hold above support levels at $1,319. Short-term trend has changed to downward as Gold price was making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour time frame as shown in the chart below. Gold price has also broken the upward sloping trend line support and is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,290.


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We warned that bulls should be very cautious and we preferred the strategy to take some profits from long positions and raise stops as this downward move is unfolding into a bigger decline that could bring Gold price below $1,300 soon. Bulls will be happy if Gold price manages to break above the downward sloping red trend line resistance as shown in the chart above. As long as this trend line is above current market price, our view will remain bearish or neutral.


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The rejection at the long-term downward sloping trend line is important. This could affect Gold price in a way that will bring it back towards $1,260-70 towards the blue upward sloping trend line support. $1,293-95 is important short-term support as this is the 38% Fibonacci correction level of the rise from $1,237 to $1,331. Breaking below this support will bring the precious metal towards its next important support at $1,286.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 20, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: It is essential that this market stays above the price line at 1.3750 for the bulls to continue to maintain their supremacy. A probable sharp pullback does not mean the end of the bulls’ supremacy, as long as it is transient. It is still possible for the market to reach the resistance line at 1.3800.


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USD/CHF: It is essential that this market stays below the resistance level at 0.8900 for the bears to continue to maintain their supremacy. A probable sharp rally does not mean the end of the bears’ supremacy, as long as it is transient. It is still possible for the market to reach the support level at 0.8850.


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GBP/USD: The Cable has been trending gradually downwards this week, but that can be checked at the accumulation territory of 1.6600. Any movement below the accumulation level would render the bullish outlook invalid; whereas as long as the price is above the accumulation level, the bullish outlook is intact. In addition, more fundamental figures are coming out later today and they will have impact on the markets.


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USD/JPY: This pair, in spite of the desperate bullish attempt that was carried out on it this week, has formed another bearish signal. However, the bearish signal is expected to be limited, not going beyond the demand level of 101.00, because it is assumed that the price could rally significantly from there.


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EUR/JPY: This is a bull market and the current southward retracement is seen as a sale in the context of an uptrend. This uptrend remains valid as long as the price is above the EMA 56: the price can go upwards any time.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 20, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6748


R2: 1.6713


R1: 1.6670


Current spot: 1.6629


S1: 1.6618


S2: 1.6574


S3: 1.6523


Technical summary:


We now have a five wave rally from the 1.6252 low and a correction can evolve any time now. That said, we do expect the fifth wave to reach 1.6713, before the correction sets in. Once this wave 1 is over, we should see a correction lower towards at least 1.6478. A break below support at 1.6574 confirms that wave 1 is in place and the wave 2 correction towards at least 1.6478 and possibly even lower towards 1.6413 is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Stay long in EUR from 1.6260 and raise your stop to 1.6570 and take profit at 1.6705.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 20, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 140.88


R2: 140.63


R1: 140.42


Current spot: 140.10


S1: 140.00


S2: 139.49


S3: 138.95


Technical summary:


The corrective cycle we were looking for is still unfolding and we expect support at 140.00 and more importantly at 139.49 will protect the downside for the last rally higher towards 142.41 before renewed downside pressure takes over. However, if we does see a break below support at 139.49 the correction from 136.23 will indicate that the correction ended early and a break below important support at 138.95 confirms a new test of 136.23 on the way lower to the ideal corrective target at 126.03.


Trading recommendation:


Stay long in EUR from 140.10 and keep your stop at 139.95 and take profit at 142.25. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR close to 140.00 with the same stop and take profit targets.


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