Weekly forecast and intraday trading recommendations for USD/JPY for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today traders eye the BOJ monetary policy meeting. The pair was unable to breach the previous week's high and successfully held 20Dsma. For the last 3 days the pair has got enough support to push the pair back to higher levels. The pair has support at 108.50 20Dsma, below this, 108.0. In case if the pair closes below 20Dsma, 108.50, the weakness will come to foreground to drive the pair towards 107 and 106.80 levels. On the other hand, until the pair closes above 20Dma, we can expect new higher levels. If the pair manages to breach 111.10, it can extend its bull image up to 112 immediately. We recommend buying above 109.90 and safe buyers can take long positions above 110.10 for an upside target at 112 levels.

Support: 108.0, 107.40, 106.80

Resistance: 109.50, 110.10, 112.00

For an intraday view, the pair is trading near a 6-hour low at 108.66 levels. Ahead of the BOJ announcement, we expect some pullback from the current lower levels. The prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. We recommend buying at the current levels for a target at 109.00, 109.15, 109.25 and 109.50. For an hourly trading perspective the prices have strong resistance at 109.25 (35DEMA). We expect strong buying above 109.25 for an extending target at 109.50. Use sl 108.35 for this view.

Buy at cmp 108.76, sl 108.35, target is 109.00, 109.15, 109.25 and 109.50.

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Short-term forecast and intraday trading recommendation on USD/CAD for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair was unable to breach the previous swing high at 1.1279 (March 2014). It made a high at 1.1270 and started looking at the downside. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1280. Until the pair trades below 1.1270, in the weekly chart it represents a double top. And in the monthly chart, until the pair trades below 1.1279, it represents a double top. The bulls must breach 1.1279 as soon as they can to erase the double the top formation. If the pair closes above 1.1279 on the weekly basis, we can expect 1.1525 in a couple of weeks. If the pair closes above 1.1279 on the monthly basis, we can expect 1.1640 and 1.1930 in a couple of months.

Buying above 1.1279

For an intraday view, the safe buying will be triggered only above 1.1190 and strong momentum, only above 1.1210 for an upside target at 1.1244, 1.1265. Huge buying and short covering will be triggered at a time in case the pair breaches the 1.1280 levels for an immediate target at 1.1315. For an hourly perspective the pair has support at 1.1161 and 1.1130. Safe selling will be triggered below 1.1100 for a downside target at 1.1070, 1.1050 and 1.1035 levels. The panic will be triggered below 1.170. In case an hourly H4 candle closes below the base support of the ascending symmetric triangle, the bearish views will move the pair towards 1.0985 levels. Another side, in case if the hourly candle h4 closes above the triangle, we can expect a 50-pip immediate rise.

Trade-

Buying above 1.1190, target 1.1210, 1.1244 and 1.1265

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release the economic data too such as the JOLTS Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2704.

Strong Resistance:1.2696.

Original Resistance: 1.2684.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2672.

Target Inner Area: 1.2642.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2612.

Original Support: 1.2600.

Strong Support: 1.2588.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2580.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Indicators, and the US will release some economic data such as JOLTS Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Consumer Credit m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.60.

Resistance. 2: 109.39.

Resistance. 1: 109.17.

Support. 1: 108.91.

Support. 2: 108.70.

Support. 3: 108.48.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

As seen here, the EUR/JPY pair is testing the back side of the resistance turned support line at 137.00/20 levels. A bullish reversal here would push the pair higher towards at least 142.40 levels in the coming trading sessions. Immediate support is at 135.80, while resistance is seen at 139.20, followed y 141.30 and higher respectively. It is recommended to remain long for now, risk remains at 135.80 levels. Also please note that prices remain supported at fibonacci 0.786 level, of the rally from 135.80 to 141.30. Bulls are expected to remain in control till prices stay above 135.80. Only a break below 135.00 now, would delay matters.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at 135.80, target is at 142.30.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be facing resistance at 1.5470/75 levels for now. The pair had made lows at 1.5400 levels yesterday before pulling back higher. A push below 1.5375, would be required to see further lows being printed towards 1.5200 levels. Please note that the current drop is corrective (counter-trend) in nature and 1.5200 levels is a good place to initiate long positions towards the over all bull trend. Major support on 4H chart is seen at 1.4975 while resistance is at 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to remain short till prices remain below 1.5550 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 1.5560, target is at 1.5200.

Good luck!

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Short-term forecast and intraday recommendation on Gold for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The metal prices bounced from the multi-support levels at $1,180 and $1,182. On the down side, in case the metal falls below $1,180, it will extend its fall to $1,175, $1,160 and $1,150. If the metal closes below $1,180, another bearish larger corrective wave will start for a downside target at $1,135, $1,100, $1,050 and $1,035 levels. This view will open only in case if the metal breaks below $1,180 levels. The probability of the US interest rates hike made gold prices to move towards 2013 lows. The metal jumped and closed above $1,200 levels in yesterday's session. The 20Dsma is at $1,220, until it closes below this, use every rise to sell.

In case of a monthly close below $1,180 on the down side, we can expect $1,100 and $1,035- pending

In today's session the metal opened on a bearish note, opened higher at $1,207 levels. On the down side the metal has initial support at $1,204, below this, $1,200 will act as physiological support. For an intraday basis the trading pattern is framed between $1,209-$1,204. In case if the metal breaks below $1,204, we recommend selling for a downside target at $1,200, $1,195, $1,193, $1,187.50 and $1,185. A free fall is likely only below $1,180 levels. In case if the metal breaks the open higher strategy and manages to trade above $1,209, we recommend buying for an upside target at $1,212, $1,213.50 and $1,215 levels.

Trade- cmp $1,206

Risky traders use sl $1,209 selling for targets at $1,204, below this, $1,200, below this, $1,195.

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Technical analysis of Silver for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to have bounced off yesterday's lows, from around $16.60/70 levels. The metal has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick signal as seen on the daily chart view presented, indicating that the next big move could be higher up. Trading at $17.30/40 levels at present, the metal is expected to reverse down trend. Immediate support is at $16.60/70 levels, while resistance is seen at $20.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now, risk remains at $16.60/70. A break of $18.50, and subsequently $20.00/50 would be encouraging for the bulls.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at $16.40, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is bouncing off the trend line support with the 15-month range bottom around $1,180.00/85.00 levels as seen here. The metal has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick signal on the daily chart at yesterdays' close. Trading at $1,206.00 levels for now, the metal is expected to rally from here on. Immediate support remains at $1,180.00/85.00 levels while resistance is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,273.00/75.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now, risk remains at $1,180.00. A bullish follow through towards $1,230.00/40.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at $1,180.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Intraday trading recommendations on USDX for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

USDX

The US dollar started this week on a bearish note, being unable to breach previous week's high of 86.75. In yesterday's session, the US dollar erased its Friday's gains completely and fell to a 5-day low. The USDX managed to pull back from the 5-day low and close above Friday's opening price. It represents the bulls using every dip to buy. Today, as of now in the Pacific session the USD index made a high at 85.93 and started falling towards the previous day's low at 85.18. The index has the nearest support at 85.07 levels (20Dsma).

We recommend buying at the current market price of 85.18 using sl 85.07 and targets at 85.45, 85.65 levels. The prices are closed and trading below hourly key moving averages (12ema). In the early Pacific hours, the price was rejected at 34hrsma and drifted lower to 20Dsma. In case, if the price manages to trade above 34hrsma at 85.95, it can extend its increase towards 86.13. Safe buying will be triggered only above 86.15 (21hrsma). On the down side, the index has support at 85.18, the previous day low, and an 8-hour low, below this, 85.07 (20Dsma) will act as strong support during the week.

Trade-

Buy at cmp 85.18 using sl 85.07 and targets at 85.45, 85.65. levels

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The USDX tried to consolidate above the resistance level of 86.20, and as we see in the H1 chart, the USDX performed a rebound at the support level of 85.18 during the session. Now the USDX continues forming a higher high pattern for a breakout at the resistance level of 86.20. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

Dailychart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35

H4chart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29

The USDX made a pullback on the resistance level of 86.72, so this instrument is trying to drop to the 200-day moving average, where there is a good chance that the USDX will make a rebound on the level of support 85.73 (200-day SMA), because the USDX has been very strong in the bullish trend for the past few days. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, that could strengthen the current intraday bearish trend.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 86.17– 86.72

H1 chart's support levels: 85.95 – 85.73

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.95, take profit is at 85.73, and stop loss is at 86.17.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 07, 2014 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD has made a rebound at the level of 1.5959, because this pair has been very strong in the bearsh trend for several weeks, but this pair still has intentions to fall to the support level of 1.5883. Now, it is very likely that the pair will begin to form a bearish pattern behind these corrective movements on the daily chart. The MACD indicator is supporting our bearish outlook.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.6146 - 1.6235

Daily chart's support levels: 1.56046 - 1.5883

The GBP/USD had a significant recovery above the support level of 1.5980, so this pair is trying to make a breakout atf the resistance level at 1.6075 level on the H1 chart. The next target would be the resistance level of 1.6117. However, we would expect this pair to fall back to the support level of 1.5980, GBP/USD remains below the 200 SMA.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6075 – 1.6117

H1 chart's support levels: 1.6031 – 1.5980

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5925, take profit is at 1.5871, and stop loss is at 1.5980.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD stays above the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.0886, the fall from 1.1269 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Another rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.1400 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF stays above the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 0.9300, the fall from 0.9687 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and another rise to 0.9900 area is still possible. Key support is at 0.9516, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY stays in the trading range between 108.00 and 110.08. As long as 108.00 support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 101.06 (Jul 10 low), another rise to 113.00 area would likely be seen after consolidation.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 0.8642 and 0.8826. Resistance is at 0.8826, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend, another fall to 0.8400 area is still possible. On the upside, a break above 0.8826 resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 0.8642 already, then further rise to 0.8900 - 0.8950 area could be seen.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD stays below the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.6524, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the rise from 1.5951 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Another fall could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.5600 area. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.5951 already, then further rise to 1.6400 area could be seen.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - October 7, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD broke above the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, indicating that consolidation of the downtrend from 1.2994 is underway. Range trading between 1.2500 and 1.2698 would likely be seen in a couple of days. As long as 1.2698 resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall to 1.2200 area is still possible after consolidation. On the upside, a break above 1.2698 resistance will signal completion of the downtrend, then the pair will find resistance around 1.2850.

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Gold analysis for October 06, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,182.92 (swing low like support). Anyway, we can observe rejection from the level of 1,182.00 and gold is now in bullish corrective phase . According to the daily chart, we can observe healthy bearish price action, which is a sign that buying still looks very risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recenet swing points and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,197.00. According to previous price action, we got resistance level at the price of 1,204.00 (swing low like resistance).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,190.58

R2: 1,.192.56

R3: 1,195.77

Support levels

S1: 1,184.16

S2: 1,182.18

S3: 1,178.97

Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we got strong selling pressure on the market and low reaction from buyers

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 06, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6161 in an volume below the average. We can observe that price found support at the level of 1.6000 but if it breaks the level of 1.6000 in a high volume, we may see a potetntial testing of the level of 1.5900 (swing high like support). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak demand and potential end of bullish corrective phase (abcd).

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6144

R2: 1.6179

R3: 1.6235

Support levels:

S1: 1.6032

S2: 1.5997

S3: 1.5941

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for October 6-10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

A summary of the GBP/USD pair.

• According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between the levels of 1.6070 and 1.5950.


• The level of 1.6069 is representing the weekly pivot point that coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.


• Sell below the level of 1.6069 in the short term with the first target of 1.5951 (the double bottom), it might resume to 1.5853 if the trend will breaks the double bottom at the price of 1.5951.

Observations :

• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


• Major support will set at the level of 1.5853 on October 6, 2014.


• Major resistance will set at the level of 1.6188 on October 6, 2014.


• We expect a new range up to 245 pips this week.

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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for October 6-10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD.

A general review and summary of the EUR/USD pair.

• According to the previous information, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2580 and 1.2500. Thus, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.2576. Right now, the current price is around the level of 1.2551. Moreover, the weekly point has already formed a psychological level at this area. And the weekly resistance 1 is going to set at the level of 1.2653. Therefore, sell at the level of 1.2650 (the weekly resistance 1) with the first target at the 1.2580 price (the level of 1.2580 is representing the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart) , then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.2500 to test the double bottom in H1 chart. Notwithstanding, if the trend fails to close below the level of 1.2650, then the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.2685.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 5 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6168

R2: 1.6153

R1: 1.6140

Current spot: 1.6113

S1: 1.6100

S2: 1.6078

S3: 1.6063

Technical summary:

With a firm back test of the broken base-channel resistance-line, which is now acting as support, we should again look for a new strong rally higher towards 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6836 and higher. In the short term, we would like to see minor resistance at 1.6214 broken as indication, that a firm bottom is in place for a new impulsive rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6000 and will move our stop to break even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy close to 1.6080 or upon a break above 1.6214 with the same stop at 1.6000

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 06/10/2014 11:30 CET

This market still looks like it is making another false breakout to the upside in the mid-term basis but the lower time frame wave development hasn't really confirmed this view. There are too many possibilities to anticipate with the decent degree of probability what the next market move will be. The longer-term trend is still bullish and the current market behavior is very much similar to some kind of a very complex and time-consuming corrective cycle, possibly in wave 2 of a larger time frame degree.

Nevertheless, to intraday analysis indicates a possible bottom in this market, labeled as wave B, but as long as the intraday resistance at the level of 137.93 is not broken, the bullish impulsive wave progression remains in question. Support/Resistance:

136.86 - Intraday Support | Wave B Low|

137.68 - Weekly Pivot

137.93 - Intraday Resistance

138.45 - WR1

138.97 - 139.15 - Demand Breakthrough Zone Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should pay attention to the mentioned key level as any breakout higher would provide a great opportunity for a buy side trade with SL below the level of 136.85.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 5 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.87

R2: 137.64

R1: 137.44

Current spot: 137.18

S1: 137.04

S2: 136.86

S3: 136.60

Technical summary:

We still regard the rally of the 135.80 low as an impulsive rally and more upside should be seen in the longer term towards strong resistance at 143.79. If this impulsive scenario is to stay valid, we should soon see upside acceleration and the first clue will be a break above minor resistance at 137.87 for a rally back to 139.13 towards 141.22 on the way higher to 143.79. That said, we have to be aware of the risk of the rally to 141.22 only being an X-wave and if this is the case, then we will see support at 135.80 be broken soon for a continuation lower towards at least 133.52 and possibly even 125.98, but for this scenario to become the preferred count a break below 135.80 is needed.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 137.75 with stop at 136.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then put a break above 137.87 with a stop at 136.85

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Gold wave analysis for October 6, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has pushed towards our short-term target of $1,180 as expected and bounced after testing this important low from June 2013. Gold price remains in a fully bearish trend and we continue to expect we will see new lower lows towards $1,000.

Blue line= support

Green line= price channel

Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the downward sloping channel. After breaking the short-term support at $1,204 Gold price has pushed lower towards $1,180 which was our short-term target. A bounce from this level was expected as this price area is the important low made in June 2013.

Short-term trend changes would take place only if Gold price breaks above $1,225. Resistance is found at $1,197 and at $1,220. I do not expect Gold price to be able to push again above $1,210 and I believe it is just back testing the break out area at $1,204. I expect selling pressures to resume and finally push Gold price below $1,180. 1st short-term target is found at $1,170 and then at $1,120.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 06, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has pulled back to the 1.5470 region after printing lows at 1.5370 last week. The pair is stalling at resistance now, and should continue falling to fresh lows at 1.5200 levels in the coming trading sessions. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally from 1.4975 to 1.5550 levels is also around 1.5200 levels. Furthermore , the past resistance turned support is also seen around the same region. Looking into all the above facts, it is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at 1.5560 at least. A more conservative trading approach could be to look for a drop to 1.5200 and turn bullish. Major support is seen at 1.4975 and bulls should remain in control till prices stay above it.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop above 1.5560, target 1.5200.

Good luck!

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