Wednesday 2 July 2014

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 03, 2014 Trend News

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Overview


As it was expected, we should wait for the break of the Resistance level of 174.75 before making the decision to continue the bullish move. Today and as shown in the H4 chart, the pair failed more than once to break this Resistance level to reverse its bullish move taking a bearish move to trade below the Resistance level of 174.75 and above the Support level of 174.00. Currently, it's supposed to approach the Support level of 174.00 and is likely to try to break it through to continue its bearish move. If the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, it would be another good opportunity for more sell signals till reaching the Support level of 173.50 as a first target.


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Intraday recommendations for Gold (July 03, 2014) Trend News

GOLD


GOLDDaily.png

The metal is facing strong resistance at the 61.8 fib level ($1,334-$1,334.60). As we recommended earlier, fresh longs should be placed only above $1,335. Still, we stick to the same scenario. The daily RSI is in consolidation phase at an overbought level. So we can observe the limited up move. However, if the metal goes through any sudden spike supported by today's US economic data, it is not likely to sustain at higher levels. The metal has strong support level at $1,310, $1,305 and $1,300. On the bull side, if the metal manages to breach the $1,334.60, we recommend buying at $1,335 for 38, $1,340, $1,354, $1,360, $1,370 and $1,390 levels.


Intraday- cmp $1,324


GOLDH4.png

The metal is trading at $1,324 in Asia's session. It opened the session in a mild bearish phase. It is trading below 35 hr Dema and is holding the support level at $1,323 (21 hr Sma). Below it, the metal has intraday final support between $1,320-$1,318. We can see a huge panic button below $1,318 for $1,315, $1,310.10 and $1,305.50 levels. The metal has an immediate resistance at $1,325.60 (4 hr high) above $1,327.10,$1,329, $1,331 and $1,334.60 levels.


Safe traders:


Sell below $1,318


Buy above $1,335


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Medium-term forecast and intraday recommendations for USD/CAD (July 03, 2014) Trend News

USD/CAD


USDCADWeekly.png

The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.1279 levels. It grounded to its monthly low. The pair has almost erased its January 2014 gains. In last week's trading session, the pair chopped the 50 week Sma and closed below it, holding near 61.8 fib correction levels. The nearest support is at 1.06 levels. The trading range is framed between 1.0590-1.0716. Until the pair closes above the 50 week Sma, it is seen to remain bearish. The bulls are back on track only above 1.0720 levels. On the upside, it could fly up to 1.0761 above the level of 1.0720, which is a huge resistance and last week's high. On the downside, if the pair chops the 1.0590 level, it can extend its fall up to the level of 1.0560, which is a minor support level. The major panic is likely to emerge below the 1.0560 for 1.0456 (200 weeks Ema) and 1.040 levels.


Intraweek support- 1.0590


Monthly key support- 1.0456


Intraweek view- cmp 1.0666


USDCADH4.png

The pair has support at 1.0660 and resistance between 1.0671-1.0678. In Asia's session, it is trading at the level of 1.0667. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 1.0678 for 1.0697, 1.0720 and 1.0750 levels. The pair looks weak below 1.0660 look near support levels at 1.0645, 1.0637 and 1.0627. If the pair breaks the previous support, it could hit the nearest strong support zone between 1.0590-1.0560 levels. The previous swing low at 1.0716 would act as the intraweek reversal level.


Intraweek support- 1.0627


Intraweek resistance - 1.0716


Buy above 1.0678


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Medium term forecast and an intraday recommendation for AUD/USD (July 03, 2014) Trend News

AUD/USD


Medium-term view (July-December 2014)


AUDUSDMonthly.png

We can see the importance of moving averages for this pair. This pair is the classic example of how the technical moving averages drive the pair. In the monthly chart, we can see a flag pattern. The pair has broken the 50 month Sma on May 2013 and closed below it. Later the pair attempted to cross it twice, but was rejected, thus making a new low whenever it tried to touch it. The Aussie is facing strong resistance at 0.9542 (November 2013 high). We can see strong momentum above 0.9542 for 0.9757, 0.9791 and 0.9892 levels in the next few months. On the downside, it has strong support at 0.9340 and 0.92 levels.


Intraweek - cmp 0.9438


AUDUSDH4.png

The pair has support at 0.9428 and resistance at 0.9443. In Aisa's session, it is trading at the level of 0.9438. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 0.9443 for 0.9454 and 0.9465 levels. The pair looks weak below 0.9428 near support levels at 0.9410 and 0.9390. If the pair breaks the previous support, it can hit the nearest strong support zone between 0.9350 and 0.9321 levels. The previous swing low at 0.9387 is seen to act as the intraweek support level.


The pair has a strong resistance level at 0.9443 (12 Hr high) and support at 0.9428 (12 Hr low). We recommend trading with 12 hr H/L levels.


Buy above 0.9443


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Medium-term forecast and intraday recommendations for USD/CHF (July 03, 2014) Trend News

USD/CHF


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The pair has been in a downtrend for 24 months. Having been rejected at the 50 month Sma, it reached the high at 0.9972 (July 2012 high). Later again, the pair was rejected at the 50 month Sma on a closing basis (May & July 2013). The pair made a double bottom at 0.87 (March&May 2014). We expect the short-term bottom to be placed at the level of 0.8700. If the pair chops the double bottom, it can extend its fall up to 0.8568 (50.0 fib level & October 2011 low). The monthly Stochastic is indicating a positive divergence, so it could fly up to 0.9082 and 0.9225. This view is valid until it holds the double bottom at 0.87 levels. We are bearish only below 0.8700 for 0.8568, 0.8242 and 0.7712 levels. Until the pair breaches the level of 0.9225, we can expect new lows. The momentum indicator has bottomed at 0.7069, the lowest bottom ever formed for the past 15 years.


Monthly Key support- 0.8700


Monthly Key resistance- 0.9037


Intraweek view- cmp 0.8892


USDCHFH4.png

The pair opened its session in a bullish note. The pair has support at 0.8886 (16 hr low) and a resistance at the level of 0.8902. In Aisa's session, it is trading at 0.8894. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 0.8902 for 0.8915, 0.8940 and 0.8960 levels. The pair looks weak below 0.8886 near the support levels at 0.8877 and 0.8857. If the pair breaks the previous support, it can hit the nearest strong support zone at 0.8830 and 0.8770 levels. The previous swing low at 0.8857 is seen to act as the intraweek support level.


Intraweek key support- 0.8857


Buy with sl 0.8886, strong momentum above 0.8902 . cmp 0.8895


Sell below 0.8870 targets 0.8857 and 0.8827


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m, French 10-y Bond Auction, and Minimum Bid Rate.The US will release its Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Natural Gas Storage data. So amid the reports, EUR/USD is seen to move medium to high volatility during this day.


Today's technical levels:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3721.

Strong Resistance:1.3712.

Original Resistance: 1.3699.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3686.

Target Inner Area: 1.3653.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3620.

Original Support: 1.3607.

Strong Support: 1.3594.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3585.


Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3607 and 1.3699. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3594 and by 1.3712 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3585 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3721 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3620 and at 1.3686, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3653. Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 03, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and the US will unveil its Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Natural Gas Storage data. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.



Today's technical levels:
Resistance. 3: 102.41.

Resistance. 2: 102.21.

Resistance. 1: 102.01.

Support. 1: 101.47.

Support. 2: 101.57.

Support. 3: 101.37.


Description:


Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.37) and resistance 3 (102.41). Normally, when the level is touched, USD/JPY is likely to rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.



Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of Silver for July 03, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver had rallied through $21.20 levels yesterday before pulling back again. Looks like the metal is due for a corrective fall towards at least $19.50 levels before rallying further up. Recommendations are to remain short for now, risk remains above $21.60/70.


2. Support is seen at $20.00, followed by $19.50, $18.60, $18.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $21.70, followed by $22.30 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver rally could be done at least for now and that the metal could correct towards $19.50/20.00 levels before rallying further up.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop around $21.60/70, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 03, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair is facing stalling around 139.20 levels for now. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also around the same levels (fall from 140.00 to 137.70). A bearish reaction could trigger from these levels, immediate resistance being 140.00.


2. Support is seen at 137.70/80, followed by 136.50, 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 140.00, followed by 141.00, 142.50, 143.50 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY could reverse from current levels towards the lower side. The 140.00 levels should hold.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop above 140.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 03, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF has followed up well after producing a morning star bullish signal earlier and is trading around the 1.5250/60 levels for now. Still the pair could first complete counter trend around 1.5080 levels before rallying further. Long positions could be taken off for now and lower levels should be sought to enter again.


2. Support is seen at 1.5120/30 (interim), followed by 1.4950, 1.4780, 1.4650 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5300 levels respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF could still complete its correction towards 1.5080 levels before rallying further up.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of USDX for July 03, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has made a bullish rebound near the 79.70 level and now the USDX is forming a higher low pattern. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level, it is expected to fall to a support level of 79.19. For now, the USDX remains strong in the bearish bias. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX has been strengthened again over the support level of 79.93, so the USDX is trying to form a higher low pattern to continue falling. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.50, at which one bullish trend line is. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is closing in on the 200-day moving average, which is close to the resistance level of 80.15. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.35 that would begin a short term bullish bias on the USDX. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.90.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 03, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has found resistance at the 1.7169 level, because this pair has had a bullish momentum during yesterday's session. For now, it is very likely that the GBP/USD is starts forming a lower high pattern below that level, before this pair make a breakout resistance at that level. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


GBPUSDDaily.png


H4 chart: The GBP/USD has moved into range during the last hours, because this pair has found resistance at the bullish trend line. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.7125, it's expected to fall to the support level of 1.7062. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: This pair has made a breakout at the level of 1.7150 and now, the GBP/USD is consolidating above that level with the formation of a bullish pattern. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.7200, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.7250. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.7200, take profit is at 1.7250, and stop loss is at 1.7150.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 02, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 3.63% to 11.15; S&P 500 hit record high 1,978.58 overnight before closing up 0.67% at 1,973.32) as investor optimism prevails at start of the third quarter. Chinese final PMI data more or less confirm the preliminary improved readings, Japan Q2 Tankan survey of enterprises showed large companies raising their forecast for investment expenditure to +7.4% from +0.1% in the March survey. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan export sales, caution ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls report Thursday and soft USD sentiment after surprise drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 55.3 in June from 55.4 in May (versus forecast for rise to 55.9), weaker-than-expected 0.1% increase in U.S. May construction spending (versus +0.5% forecast) and drop in U.S. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index to 45.6 in July from 47.7 in June.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.35. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 101.50.


Resistance levels:

102

102.15

102.35


Support levels:

101.35

101.15

101


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 02, 2014 Trend News

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting near-two-month low at 0.8854 on Tuesday. It is supported by the contagion from weaker euro on CHF, profit-taking on long-CHF positions as caution sets in ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Thursday and loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But CHF sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Switzerland June PMI of 54.0 (versus 52.5 forecast). USD/CHF gains are also tempered by the soft USD sentiment and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8860. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8840. The pivot point stands at 0.8905. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8925 and the second target at 0.8940.


Resistance levels:

0.8925

0.8940

0.8955


Support levels:

0.8860

0.8840

0.8815


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 02, 2014 Trend News

NZDUSDM30.png


Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to range trade.It is supported by the Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid positive investor risk appetite, soft USD sentiment, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance, NZD-USD interest differential and spillover from Aussie strength. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and profit-taking on long-NZD positions as caution sets in ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.88 and the second target at 0.8835. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.87. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8680. The pivot point is at 0.8740.


Resistance levels:

0.8800

0.8835

0.8860


Support levels:

0.87

0.8680

0.8655


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 02, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is supported by the positive investor risk appetite and demand from the Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment as caution sets in ahead of European Central Bank's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode but five- and 15-day moving averages are still meandering sideways.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 175 and the second target at 175.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 173.30. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 172.90. The pivot point is at 173.70.


Resistance levels:

175

175.40

175.80


Support levels:

173.30

172.90

172.35


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Gold analysis for July 02, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around 1,326.14 on volume below the average according to the Daily timeframe. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe testing of our major resisntace level 1,333.00, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Be careful with buying, since we may see potential bearish correction. According to the previous price action, we got a support level at the price of 1,304.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe doji bar on volume above the average, which is a good sign that we may see possible bearish movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% around the price of 1,333.00. Its very quite market today, so we need to see larger volume and larger price action to confirm futher bearish movement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,332.66


R2: 1,335.24


R3: 1,339.40


Support levels:


S1: 1,324.34


S2: 1,321.76


S3: 1,317.60


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got buying climax in the background.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for July 2, 2014 Trend News

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The price zone 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.


Thus, a Double Top reversal pattern was established with a neckline located at 1.3700. This reversal pattern has already hit its projection levels.


On the other hand, we should highlight Thursday and Monday's bullish engulfing daily candlesticks which emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing 4H channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 (Key-Level corresponding to previous prominent bottom).


Again, the market expressed a strong bullish daily candlestick when price level 1.3570 got visited last time.


Multiple ascending bottoms were established after hitting 1.3500 during June. That's why, as expected, bullish recovery originated off these levels resulting in the current bullish momentum.


As long as the bulls keep defending the recent low around 1.3575 considering the possibility of a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern with neck-line around 1.3650 with a breakout projection target to be anticipated around 1.3750.


Price zone 1.3650-1.3635 should be anticipated for bullish price action offering a valid BUY entry at retesting. This should be taking place soon.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 02/07/2014 11:55 CET


The target level for the wave v black of the wave 3 purple has been hit and the market failed to go any higher than this level. Currently it is wotth to keep an eye on the intraday support at the level of 138.49 as any breakout lower would invalidate the purple bullish count and make the correction most likely completed. Moreover, this kind of wave progression would indicate more lower levels are in view and the targets would be the weekly pivots. Secondary confirmation comes with the red ascending trending breakout and this event would directly expose the bearish zone to be tested.


Support/Resistance:


139.89 - WR3


139.40 - WR2


139.02 - Wave v black Target


139.89 - WR1


138.88 - Intraday Resistance


138.49 - Intraday Support


138.43 - Weekly Pivot


137.89 - WS1


137.69 - Wave b Low


137.40 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Price is currently in range zone and it is worth to keep an eye on the key level breakout to the downside, below the red trendline.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 2, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 02/07/2014 11:40 CET


The anticipated wave 5 red is unfolding in an impulsive pattern to the downside and from the current point of view the whole impulsive structure is very close to being completed. The price is moving inside the golden channel, targeting one of two weekly pivot levels as possible termination levels for wave 5 red. Please notice that any breakout higher above the intraday resistance above the level of 1.0644 will invalidate the impulsive wave development and will be the first confirmation that the bottom for wave 5 red is already in place.


Support/Resistance:


1.0614 - WS1


1.0685 - Weekly Pivot


1.0644 - Intraday Resistance |Key Level |


1.0711 - WR1


1.0750 - Previous wave (iv) Zone


1.0782 - WR2


1.0809 - WR3


Trading recommendations:


All swing traders that have open short positions should move SL or trail stop loss order one pip above the level of 1.0644 because the impulsive wave progression is very close to being completed and upward correction is anticipated.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 2, 2014 Trend News

Overview :



  • The NZD/USD pair will keep moving upwards from the level of 0.8783 (this level coincides with the 88% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Accordingly, the Kiwi is going to show signs of strength at the lowest price of 0.8730. Subsequently, it will be a good deal to buy above the level of 88% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart with the first target at 0.8779 in order to test the double top and further at 0.8815 (new project). Equally important, we expect that the new maximum price of 0.8815 will act as strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit. On the other hand, in case a reflection takes place and the NZD/USD pair is not able to break through the resistance at the 0.83815 level, the market will further decline to 0.8760 to indicate a bearish market on July 2, 2014.


nzdusdh4.png

Conclusion :



  • If the trend succeeds to stay above 0.8730, then the market will be continuing in uptrend above the daily pivot point towards the level of 0.8815. But the stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.8730 at the price of 0.8693.


Intraday technical levels :


Date: 2/07/2014


Pair: NZD/USD



  • R3: 0.8837

  • R2: 0.8815

  • R1: 0.8796

  • PP: 0.8774

  • S1: 0.8755

  • S2: 0.8733

  • S3: 0.8714


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 2, 2014 Trend News

The current pivot: 0.8871


usdchfh4.png

Overview :



  • The USD/CHF pair has broken a major resistance at the level of 0.8810. It should be noted that the new resistance was calculated and found at the level of 0.8950 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Also, you have to notice that the 0.8810 price has become a strong support on July 2, 2014. So, the USD/CHF pair will be restricted by the levels of 0.8810 and 0.8950; for that we expect this week a range of 140 pips approximately. Therefore it will probably start upward movement at this area and recover again. Thus, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the 0.8810 level, and it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target at 0.8810. It will then continue moving towards 0.8910 for forming a double top today. Moreover, we look for the weekly target around the strong resistance around the spot of 0.8950 (new project for July 1-4, 2014). On the other hand, if a break of 0.8780 happens, then it will be a good location for placing a stop loss at the 0.8753 level.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 2, 2014 Trend News

1404287907_2014-07-02-EURNZD-D.png


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.5650


R2: 1.5628


R1: 1.5615


Current spot: 1.5615


S1: 1.5567


S2: 1.5546


S3: 1.5516


Technical summary:


Since the August 2013 high at 1.7274, a major X-wave has been unfolding. This X-wave could have terminated with the test of 1.5478, just above the 78.6% corrective target of the rally from 1.4966 to 1.7274 at 1.5460. If the X-wave is indeed over, we will ideally see support in the 1.5546 - 1.5567 area for a break above resistance at 1.5650 and more importantly above resistance at 1.5706, that will confirm that a long term bottom is in place for a major rally higher to above the August 2013 high at 1.7274.


Trading Recommendation:


We bought EUR at 1.5585 and will place our stop at 1.5470. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.5546 with the same stop at 1.5470.


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#USDX technical analysis for July 2, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has reached our target of 79.75. Support is strong at that level as this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the Ichimoku cloud support on the daily chart. If the Dollar index is going to reverse, it will be at this level. If this level is breached, then we should expect more downside towards 79.50.


usdx.jpg

Price is trading sideways. Short-term resistance is found at 79.90. If broken we could see a bounce towards next resistance at 80.05. Strong resistance is found at 80.35 and 80.15 by the Ichimoku cloud and the downward sloping trend line.


usdxd.jpg

The daily chart above shows how price is now at important support levels. It is a good sign that the decline is paused at these levels. This increases the chances of an upward reversal. So bears should be very cautious as we could see an upward reversal soon.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2014 Trend News

2014-07-02-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 139.18


R2: 139.13


R1: 138.85


Current spot: 138.84


S1: 138.61


S2: 138.48


S3: 138.18


Technical summary:


The wave ii correction is most likely to have ended at 139.13 (just below our target at 139.18). We are currently looking for a break below minor support at 138.48 as the first strong indication that this is in fact the case. However, a break below support at 137.92 is needed to provide the final confirmation for a continuation lower towards 136.23 and possibly even lower.


As long as support at 1.3848 protects the downside, we could still see one last rally higher towards 139.18, but the odds do not really favor this outcome.


Trading recommendation:


We missed our sell-point by just 2 small pips. Instead we will sell here at 138.84 with stop placed at 139.25.


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Gold technical analysis for July 2, 2014 Trend News

Gold price is trading above short-term support. This short-term support is at $1,318. Although the short-term trend is neutral, the intermediate-term trend that started at $1,240 remains bullish with increased probability of testing the $1,340-50 area.


goldh4.jpg

Ichimoku cloud supports the short-term trend. Breaking above $1,334 and staying at least for 2 hours above that level will be a bullish signal targeting $1,345-50. If support at $1,318 is broken, we should expect Gold price to move towards $1,310-$1,308 where support is found. Breaking below $1,308 will give us a sell signal with $1,290 as the first target.


goldd.jpg

Our wave scenario of a sideways triangle still holds and we have yet no sign that wave E is complete. My initial expectation for wave E was for it to end near $1,350. So although the short term is bullish still, my long-term view remains bearish and I look for the right time and price to sell when the expected downward move to new lows starts.


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