07/25/14 ~ Best and Easy Analyst News

Friday 25 July 2014

Daily analysis of Silver for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

H4 chart: yesterday the metal failed to break the Support level of 20.00 to bounce again from it and trade between the Support level of 20.20 and the Resistance level of 20.50. Currently, the metal is approaching the Resistance level of 20.50. Therefore we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close 4H above today, this gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.70, then the second target at 21.00 after breaking this Support level. But as long as silver is trading below 20.50, waiting would be prefered in this case. It cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3(21.00), R2 (20.70), R1 (20.50), S1 (20.20), S2 (20.00), S3 (19.75).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As it was expected yesterday, we should make the decision after breaking the Support area of 172.60 and closing 4H below. As shown on the H4 chart, the pair failed to break this Support area yesterday and bounced from it again to reverse its bearish move taking an upward movement. Currently, it is approaching the Resistance level of 173.30 to retest it. Given that the pair continues its bullish move and manages to close 4H above this Resistance level, it gives us new opportunity for Buy signals above this Resistance level with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 173.75 then 174.40 as the second target. But as long as the pair is trading below the Resistance level of 173.30, this cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.40), R2 (173.75), R1 (173.30), S1 (172.60), S2 (172.30), S3(169.90)

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.

A Double Top pattern was formed after the neckline located at 1.3700 got broken down. Projection targets have already been hit shortly after.

Previous prominent bullish engulfing daily candlesticks emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 (the key level corresponding to the previous prominent bottom).

Later on, the EUR/USD pair has been facing difficulty to fixate above the key level around 1.3640-1.3660, then successive bearish engulfing candlesticks originated off this price zone.

Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure on 1.3560 (corresponding to previous prominent bottom) exposing 1.3500 which was broken down shortly after.

Bullish fixation above 1.3480 - 1.3500 is essential for the bulls to recover and acquire momentum to initiate a corrective move within the current steep bearish trend.

Breakdown of 1.3500 invalidated the bullish structure allowing the bears to pursue towards the price level of 1.3420 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%).

Bullish pressure may be initiated around the current prices provided that the bears fail to fixate below 1.3400 on the daily basis.

However, the current short-term trend remains intact to push lower until proven otherwise, so the bulls should be conservative with their long positions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms around 1.6465, 1.6555, and 1.6665 (corresponding to the uptrend line) constituted a solid bullish structure that kept pushing higher.

Lack of bullish momentum and indecision were observed on the daily chart when the pair established a consolidation zone between 1.7050 and 1.7170.

On the other hand, the most dependable DEMAND level located around 1.7050 was broken down yesterday exposing the price levels of 1.7000.

The price levels of 1.6910-1.6920 are the next destination of the current bearish movement provided that the bears manage to push below 1.6950 (prominent bottom).

Bullish fixation above 1.7000 enhanced the bullish channel scenario, thus enabling the bulls to reach 1.7100 and 1.7160 shortly after.

As expected, the price zone between 1.7140 - 1.7170 provided evident bearish price action.

A pattern of multiple tops was confirmed after breakdown of the depicted bullish channel. Moreover, successive bearish targets were hit around 1.7055 and 1.7000.

Risky traders may keep their SELL positions up to the price level of 1.6910 where the next prominent Demand Level is located provided that the bears manage to push below 1.6950 ( prominent bottom ).

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Bullish breakout above the DAILY bearish channel took place exposing the price levels around 1.6985, 1.6900, and 1.7000 as projection targets.

The GBP/USD pair managed to break through the psychological resistance around 1.7000 which previously provided extensive bearish pressure during the last visit on May 6.

Bullish pressure was once applied as a trial to break through the upper limit of the 4H movement channel. However, lack of follow-through existed as bullish pressure being applied was not enough to ensure success of the bullish breakout.

On the other hand, Intraday resistance was established around 1.7150-1.7190. A short-term SELL position was suggested in the previous articles with SL located just above 1.7190.

The price levels of 1.7050 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had potential bearish target around 1.6970.

The GBP/USD pair remains supported by DAILY Levels around 1.7000 which is a prominent top established in May and important psychological support.

The price level of 1.6920 is the next support level to meet the pair in case the bears managed to breakdown the price zone of 1.6970-1.7000.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 25/07/2014 13:50 CET

This pair has not made much movement so far. However, there are some indications, that the corrective cycle in form of a green abc irregular flat wave 2 has been completed and the market might be ready for another leg down. Moreover, it looks like the first wave to the downside has already been made and this would be a very good opportunity for day traders to enter the market on the short side with very limited risk. Break below the first and second intraday support level in an impulsive fashion is another clue that the count is valid.

Support/Resistance:

136.18 - WS1

136.35 - Wave b green Low

137.92 - Intraday Support

136.75 - Intraday Support

137.30 - Weekly Pivot

137.33 - Intraday Resistance |Key Level|

137.65 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Please, wait for the marker to decide which way it wants to go. Any breakout higher above the key level means swing and day traders should keep short positions open as the corrective wave to the upside has started. Nevertheless, the mid-term bias is still bearish.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 25/07/2014 13:20 CET

Due to the lack of any particular movement on lower timeframes on this forex pair, let's take a look on alternate Elliott Wave labeling on the daily timeframe. This count is quite bearish as the wave progression suggests that the market is in the middle of green wave 3 development. More downside price action is expected as long as the blue corrective channel provides the dynamic resistance. The most important level for bears is the black impulsive count invalidation line at the level of 1.0811. This level can not be broken in order to develop correctly to impulsive wave progression to the downside. The projected target level for blue wave 5 of green wave 3 is the zone between the levels of 1.0514 - 1.0530. Please notice, that the market is below 50, 100 and 200 daily moving averages and this fact supports the bearish case.

Support/Resistance:

1.0514 - 1.0530 - Wave 5 Blue Projected Target Level

1.0619 - Wave 3 Blue Low

1.0819 - Black Bearish Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Since the beginning of the last week, I have been advising only short positions to be open both for swing and day traders. This recommendation is valid as long as the level of 1.0819 is broken in an impulsive fashion (five waves progression).The potential projected target for all short positions is at the level of 1.0530.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

The NZD/USD pair will keep moving downwards from the level of 1.7003 (this level coincides with the 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). But, it should be noted that the support had already stood at the price of 1.6950 for that we expect a saturation around the spot of 1.6950 and 1.6945. Accordingly, the Cable (British pound vs the US dollar) is going to show signs of strength at the lowest price of 1.6950 on July 26, 2014. Thus, it will be a good deal to buy above the level of 50% (1.6945) of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart with the first target at 0.7003 and further at 0.7030. Equally important, 0.7030 will be acting as a strong resistance, so it is going to be a good place to take profit. Also, it should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide approximately with the ratio of 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels). On the other hand, in case a reflection takes place and the NZD/USD pair is not able to break through the resistance at the 0.7030 level, the market will further decline to 0.6966 in order to indicate a bearish market on the 25th of July, 2014.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Forecast in the short term :

According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is moved between the levels of 0.8622 and 0.8506.

Resistance will be formed at the level of 0.8620 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.8503.

Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.8660.

The major support will be formed at the level of 0.8405 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.8610 level.

Stop-loss is to be placed below the double bottom at the price of 0.8373.

Notes :

The daily pivot point will set at the price of 0.8570.

We expect a range about 70 pips at least. Hence, the risk of 70 pips must make a profit of 105 pips.

Look out!

Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

Volatility: 274.39. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

#USDX Technical analysis for July 25, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in the bullish trend. The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. It has reached our short-term target of 81. Now, our next target is 81.75. The Dollar index continues to trade within the upward sloping channel above the Ichimoku cloud support.

A short-term pause to the rise could come near 81-81.20. A pull back towards 80.7 would be a healthy correction and another opportunity to add to long positions. The trend remains bullish. So do I.

In the daily chart as shown above, we can see the Dollar index approaching important resistance. Our target is at 81.75 an equal sized move to the rise from 78.90 to 81. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. This confirms the bullish daily trend which proved our view that a trend reversal occurred at 79.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5812

R2: 1.5775

R1: 1.5742

Current spot: 1.5706

S1: 1.5681

S2: 1.5659

S3: 1.5618

Technical summary:

With the break above the base-channel, we should expect acceleration towards the upside soon. The next target is at 1.5812, but it could easily move beyond that target. In the short term, we should expect support at 1.5659 and at least support at 1.5618 to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 1.5812.

Trading Recommendations:

We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop to break even at 1.5525. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5659 or upon a break above 1.5742 with the same stop at 1.5525.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.50

R2: 137.34

R1: 137.19

Current spot: 137.10

S1: 136.97

S2: 136.81

S3: 136.64

Technical summary:

We have seen the expected rally in red wave iv. It should be just a matter of time before this correction is over. As long as support at 136.97 protects the downside, we could still see a move closer to 137.34 before red wave iv finally is in place and red wave v is ready to take over for the next decline to 135.49 and longer term for a decline closer to 134.34, where wave C is equal in length to wave A.

Trading recommendations:

We will keep our EUR sell order at 137.20 with stop placed at 138.15.

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Gold Technical analysis for July 25, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price remains in the downtrend. The price in the 30 minute chart as shown below explains how the trend remains down as we see lower lows and lower highs. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Whenever it approaches the cloud, we see selling pressures come back and push the price lower. This is what we expect to happen again. Critical short-term support level is at $1,290. Breaking below that level again will push the precious metal towards $1,275-80.

The downward move is not complete yet. I expect more downside pressures as long as the price is below $1,305. Breaking below $1,290 will confirm a bearish flag break and I will expect the price next to $1,280 at least. Breaking above $1,295 could push the Gold price towards $1,305.

The Gold price remains supported by the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The decline from $1,346 is currently in three waves. It means that if the price breaks above $1,326, our bearish scenario will be postponed. If the price breaks above $1,326, I would expect the Gold price to make a higher high above $1,346 towards $1,350-60. On the other hand, bears want to break below the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,280. Breaking below that level will increase the chances of success of our bearish preferred scenario. Concluding, $1,326 is crucial for our bearish scenario and $1,240 for the chances of bulls coming out as winners.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.86 versus 80.81 early Thursday) as 19,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to an eight-and-a-half year low of 284,000 in the week ended July 19 (versus 305,000 forecast) and surprise rise in Kansas City Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index to 9 in July from 6 in June (versus the forecast for no change) outweighed by bigger-than-expected 8.1% on-month drop in U.S. new home sales to 406,000 in June (versus forecast of 5.8% drop to 475,000), sharp downward revision of May sales to 442,000 from a previously estimated 504,000 as well as drop in Markit flash U.S. manufacturing PMI to 56.3 in July from 57.3 in June. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, higher U.S. Treasury yields; the weaker JPY sentiment after wider-than-expected Japan June trade deficit of Y822.2 billion (versus Y684.7 billion forecast). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales, lingering geopolitical concerns over Ukraine and Gaza and adjustment of positions before the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, a five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.25. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 100.95.

Resistance levels:

102

102.25

102.45

Support levels:

101.15

100.95

100.60

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CAD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment and weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.05 Thursday at $102.07/bbl). But USD/CAD gains are tempered by the loonie demand on CAD/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, stochastics is reverting to the bullish mode, but a five-day moving average is meandering sideways above advancing 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9045 and the second target at 0.9075. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8965. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8935. The pivot point is at 0.8900.

Resistance levels:

0.9040

0.9075

0.91

Support levels:

0.8965

0.8935

0.8910

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a six-week low at 0.8556 this morning. Kiwi was hurt after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled it would hold rates for now to assess the impact of increases and described the Kiwi's strength as "unjustified and unsustainable." NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But the Kiwi sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected NZ June goods trade surplus. NZD/USD losses are also tempered by the NZD/USD interest differential and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed in the oversold zone, a five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8530. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8490. The pivot point stands at 0.8635. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8665 and the second target at 0.8710.

Resistance levels:

0.8665

0.8710

0.8735

Support levels:

0.8530

0.8490

0.8475

Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is supported by the weaker JPY sentiment, demand from Japanese importers, and profit-taking on short EUR positions as traders trim risk exposure before the weekend. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday; stochastics is turning bullish to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.90. The pivot point stands at 173.35. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.75 and the second target at 174.10.

Resistance levels:

173.75

174.10

174.45

Support levels:

172.35

171.90

171.65

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