USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Two months ago, the ongoing bearish swing (ilogged in March 2014) was hindered at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper bearish one.

In August, bullish breakout off the movement channel took place. This enabled a bullish Flag pattern to be established. Bullish targets were successfully hit, including price level of 1.1230.

Strong bullish momentum has been expressed for a couple of weeks. Note that breaching price zone of 1.1230-1.1260 and fixation above it triggers new bullish swing.

On the other hand, a break below 1.1100-1.1070 is more likely to happen. This indicates that the bearish correction will extend further towards 1.0980-1.0950 where a key-support zone is depicted on the chart (the lower limit of the bullish channel and 50% Fibonacci level).

Recommendations:

The price zone of 1.1250-1.1276 corresponded to previous significant tops on the daily chart. Extensive bearish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

Risky traders can take a SELL entry around 1.1200-1.1245. Bearish targets are located at 1.1080 and 1.0990.

Then, the price zone of 1.0980-1.0950 should be watched for another LONG position to make use of the ongoing bullish trend.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Note the depicted Shooting Star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions at retesting that took place few days later.

Note that the bullish rejection initiated when market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060 on September 9. Another bearish leg was expressed below 1.6060 (The weekly low is located around 1.5950).

On the other hand, price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 remains a prominent SUPPLY zone to meet the pair. It applied considerable bearish pressure on the pair yesterday resulting in formation of an Inverted Hammer daily candlestick.

4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.

Although the recent bullish leg which extended between 1.6060 (the lower limit of the channel) and price levels around 1.6400 looked strong compared to the recent bearish swings, the bears managed to break below 1.6060 on Friday.

This bearish swing was targeting at 1.5900 (site of prominent monthly bottoms). However, the bears just reached 1.5950 when obvious bullish rejection was expressed to push again towards 1.6150.

For risky traders, a valid SELL entry can be taken around the current prices but with a higher risk. Stop loss can be placed above 1.6200.

According to the price action expressed at retesting of price zone of 1.6100-1.6140, the GBP/USD pair is now targeting at 1.5960 and 1.5860 where prominent bottoms were established.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the recent flag pattern.

Price action around the current price levels near 1.2560 is again essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair as the pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel before bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel.

Bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 to push towards 1.2650 and 1.2700 ( back inside the breached channel ). Thus, a bullish engulfing pattern is depicted on the chart.

Another retesting is taking place towards the origin of the bullish engulfing pattern. A good BUY position can be taken.

The current medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870 (the recent consolidation zone).

A short-term bullish Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the 4H chart as anticipated. 4H fixation above 1.2700 is essential to confirm the reversal.

Another pullback is taking place towards the origin of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern. A good BUY position can be taken.

Recommendation :

The neckline of the confirmed Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart is being retested today. A valid BUY entry is suggested today. Stop loss should be set as daily closure below 1.2570.

Projection target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2870 and 1.2940 where the upper limit of the channel and significant Fibonacci level are located.

Then price action should be watched again around 1.2900 for another long-term SELL position.

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Gold analysis for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,223.00. Our resistance level at the price of 1,230.00 held successful, which caused price to start with downard movement. According to the daily chart, we can observe weak demand in a volume above the average, which is a sign that buying gold at this stage looks risky. According to previous price action, we got resistance level at the price of 1,230.00 and 1,234.00 (swing high like resistance). If the price breaks the level of 1,234.00 in a high volume, we may see testing of the level of 1,244.00. Anyway, since gold has started bearish corrective phase, I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,214.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,202.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,231.82

R2: 1,235.28

R3: 1,240.90

Support levels

S1: 1,220.58

S2: 1,217.12

S3: 1,211.50

Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance levels

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 107.53 on Thursday.It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge soared 24.16% to 18.76, S&P 500 plunged 2.07% to close at 1,928.21 overnight) as weak German August exports data revived worries over slowing global growth. USD/JPY is also weighed by the soft U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.326% versus 2.330% late Wednesday), improved yen sentiment on larger-than-expected 4.7% on-month increase in Japan's August core machinery orders (versus forecast +1.0%) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.55 versus 85.32 early Thursday) after comment from Fed's Bullard that "the markets are making a mistake" expecting the Fed to maintain its ultra-easy policy stance longer than Fed officials currently expect and fewer-than-expected 287,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Oct. 4 (versus forecast 292,000), larger-than-expected 0.7% increase in U.S. August wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.4%) and positions adjustment before long weekend (financial markets in Japan and U.S. are shut Monday for public holidays).

Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 107.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 107. The pivot point stands at 108. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.30 and the second target at 108.80.

Resistance levels:

108.30

108.80

109.25

Support levels:

107.35

107

106.75

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. Tthe price tested the level of 1.6214. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find potential end of bullish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci expanson 61.8% at the price of 1.6200 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6310 . If the price breaks the level of 1.6000 we may see testing the level of 1.5900. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe weak demand on the market.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6158

R2: 1.6190

R3: 1.6241

Support levels:

S1: 1.6057

S2: 1.6025

S3: 1.5975

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range.It is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.55 versus 85.32 early Thursday) after comment from Fed's Bullard that "the markets are making a mistake" expecting the Fed to maintain its ultra-easy policy stance longer than Fed officials currently expect; fewer-than-expected 287,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Oct. 4 (versus forecast 292,000), larger-than-expected 0.7% increase in U.S. August wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.4%) and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment before U.S. long weekend. Financial markets in Japan and U.S. are shut Monday for public holidays).

Technical comments:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9465. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9420. The pivot point is at 0.95.

Resistance levels:

0.96

0.9650

0.9685



Support levels:

0.9465

0.9420

0.9380

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range.It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment, Kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, weak dairy prices and threat of central bank intervention to weaken the NZD. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment before U.S. long weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode but bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7785. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7745. The pivot point stands at 0.7885. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7960.

Resistance levels:

0.7920

0.7960

0.8005



Support levels:

0.7785

0.7765

0.7745

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 10 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6269

R2: 1.6248

R3: 1.6219

Current spot: 1.6195

S1: 1.6169

S2: 1.6150

S3: 1.6128

Technical summary:

Support near 1.5978 was never within striking distance and the rally of the 1.6031 low does look impulsive in nature. We would like to see resistance at 1.6269 broken as confirmation, that a new impulsive rally is building for a rally to 1.6446 on the way higher towards 1.6836. Short-term, we will be looking for a minor correction towards 1.6130 before the next rally higher to 1.6269 and likely above.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our buy-target at 1.5985. We will buy EUR at 1.6135 or upon a break above 1.6269 with a stop at 1.6025.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 10 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.07

R2: 136.84

R1: 136.64

Current spot: 136.64

S1: 136. 56

S2: 136.33

S3: 135.80

Technical summary:

What a nasty wipe-saw we have seen. For now we will keep the red wave i/ii count, but the rally to 141.22 could as easily be an X-wave calling for another zig-zag decline towards at least 133.57 and likely even lower to 125.98. That said, as long as important support at 135.80 protects the downside, we will keep the red wave ii count. We have changed the short-term labeling slightly to a a-b-c correction in red wave ii and if this count is correct, we should see support at 136.33, where red wave c will be equal in length to red wave a, but to confirm a bottom, we need a break above minor resistance at 137.07 and more importantly a break above 137.94.

Trading Recommendation:

Our stop was hit again at 136.50. We will buy EUR at 136.35 with a stop+revers at 135.70 or buy upon a break above 137.07 with the same stop+revers at 135.70.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still trapped between the levels of 1.6030 and 1.6150.


• Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.6188 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at the weekly pivot point (1.6069) and 1.5991.


• Stop loss is to be placed above 1.6220.


• Strong level (support) will be formed at the level of 1.5975 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 1.6080 level.


• Stop loss is to be placed below the level of 1.5951. This level is representing the double bottom in the H1 chart.

Notes :

• The double top will be set at the level of 1.6188.


• We expect a range of 90 pips today.


• But it should be noted that the risk of 60 pips must make a profit of 81 pips.


• Volatility: 218.48. Therefore, the market indicates the lower volatility.


• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.6119 (for confirming for the bullish market).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations :

• The double top of EUR/USD pair will set at the level of 1.2790 and the double bottom is going to be set at 1.2616 level.


• This week, the price had hit the weekly pivot point, the resistance 1, the resistance 2 and returned to the resistance 1.


• The major supports are going to set at the levels of 1.2650 and 1.2620.


• So, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2650 and 1.2790.


• We expect a range of 86 pips today.


• The level of 1.2653 is representing the weekly pivot point. Therefore, it will be very useful to buy above the price of 1.2653 in the short term with the first target at 1.2730 and it is continuing toward the the double top at 1.2790 again.


• However, the stop loss should be placed at 1.2580.

Intraday technical levels :

Date and Time:10/10/2014 11:20

Pair: EUR/USD

• R3: 1.2893


• R2: 1.2841


• R1: 1.2766


• PP: 1.2714


• S1: 1.2639


• S2: 1.2587


• S3: 1.2512

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#USDX Technical analysis for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has showed signs of bullish reversal yesterday as it did not close below the important short-term support of 85. Although the Dollar index broke below 85, the selling pressures were short-lived. The reversal in the Dollar index shows that the pullback was just a shallow retracement of the bigger uptrend and we should be challenging highs soon. Long-term trend remains bullish.

Blue line = support

Red line = price channel

The Dollar index is trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud that was broken on Thursday. The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping channel as shown in the 4-hour chart above. The previously broken support at 85.50 was re-taken early today and this is a bullish sign.

In the daily chart, the Ichimoku cloud indicators remain bullish. Support at 85 is held but resistance by the kijun-sen at 85.84 should be broken in order for this upward reversal to have a meaning. Last stand for bulls is the 85 price level. As long as price holds above it, we can say that the pull back ended at the 23% retracement. Longer-term trend remains bullish. Yesterday lows are very crucial for bulls. I would not hold a long position if we made a new lower lows relative to yesterday as the index could push lower towards 84.

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Gold Wave analysis for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold has probably completed wave 4 at $1,235 and it now resumes its down trend. Longer-term trend remains bearish targeting $1,100-$1,000. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as Gold price is above $1,204.

Blue line= support

In the 4 hour chart above I show my wave count in Gold. Gold price reached $1,235 where the 38% retracement was from the wave 2 high. The upward bounce from $1,183 is in three waves. A typical corrective wave with no impulsive structure. Wave b low at $1,204 is important short-term support that if broken will flip trend to bearish from bullish.

Red line = support

Zooming in the short-term view of wave 4, we observe clearly the three wave structure of uptrend nature. I remain bearish for longer-term despite this upside bounce in Gold price. This is wave 4 and once price breaks below the red trend line support at $1,214 we will have many chances of breaking the intermediate low at $1,204 where I believe the wave b is located. My longer-term target remains below $1,180. My target is between $1,000 and $1,100.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 10/10/2014 07:20 CET

After breaking above the golden channel, the market has been capped right on the supply zone, marked on chart as the grey rectangle, and reversed. Currently, if the market breaks below the last swing low at the level of 136.55, then the whole impulsive count is invalidated and lower levels should be expected including another test of the level of 135.81. Moreover, it will mean that the price is back to the larger time frame range zone and latest price rally, marked on chart as wave (1) purple, has been a false breakout rally.

Support/Resistance:

136.55 - Wave B Low

137.14 - Intraday Resistance

137.68 - Weekly Pivot

137.95 - Supply Zone|Intraday Resistance|Technical Resistance |Key Level|

138.45 - WR1

138.97 - 139.15 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:

As the outlook is not very clear at the moment, please refrain from trading until clear pattern emerges.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 10/10/2014 07:00 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the corrective wave b green is testing the lower golden channel boundary from the downside. The key level to the upside is about to be broken and the alternate count might be confirmed/invalidated soon. To do this, the market must break above the level of 1.1210 and head into the last swing high at the level of 1.1240. On the other hand, a failure here on this price level will bo more supportive for the main count, that indicates one more wave to the downside in order to complete the corrective cycle in wave (2).

Support/Resistance:

1.1240 - Swing High

1.1211 - Weekly Pivot

1.1210 - Intraday Resistance

1.1154 - WS1

1.1124 - Intraday Support

1.1070-1.1080 - Demand Zone.

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider to open buy stop orders if the level of 1.1211 is broken, with SL below the level of 1.1179 and TP at the level of 1.1240.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Industrial Production m/m and Italian Industrial Production m/m.The US will release its Import Prices m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

Today's technical levels:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2750.

Strong Resistance:1.2742.

Original Resistance: 1.2730.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2718.

Target Inner Area: 1.2688.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2658.

Original Support: 1.2646.

Strong Support: 1.2634.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2626.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, Bank Lending y/y, and Consumer Confidence. Meanwhile, the US will release its Import Prices m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with low volatility during the US session.

Today's technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 108.29.

Resistance. 2: 108.08.

Resistance. 1: 107.87.

Support. 1: 107.61.

Support. 2: 107.40.

Support. 3: 107.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair has been consolidating between 137.98 100Dsma and 136.55. For last 3 consecutive days, the pair has been taking support at 136.65 levels. The pair closed and is trading below 50Wsma and 20Wsma, it represents sell on every up move in the near term and short term. This week, as of now the pair has rejected at 20Wsma 137.93. We recommend fresh selling below 136.55 target 135.80 and 135.45 levels. The pair has monthly support at 135.42 20Msma. Should it break below 20Msma, we can expect free fall up to 134.50 and 134.00 levels. For an intraday view, the pair is seen to get some strength only above 137.30. We recommend buying only above 137.30 until sellers take profits.

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Intraday trading recommendations for USD/CAD (October 10, 2014) Market Analysis Review

Duringyesterday's session, the pair held the 20Dsma and closed above it. The 20Dsma 1.11 is providing support from last 2 consecutive days on a closing basis. The nearest support zone existed between 1.1072 and 1.11 levels. A daily close is below 20Dsma. The bears are likely to try to drag another 100 pips down until using a dip to buy results in profits. The pair was unable to breach the previous swing high at 1.1279 in March 2014. It made high 1.1270 and started moving to a downside. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1280. As long as the pair trades below 1.1270, it represents a double top in the weekly chart. And in the monthly chart, as long as it trades below 1.1279, it represents a double top.

For an intraday view, the price closed and is trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. In the h4 chart, the price is facing strong resistance at right shoulder. We can observe hns pattern in the h4 chart. The level 1.1223 is the left shoulder and 1.1211 is the right shoulder. Safe buying would trigger above 1.1211 target 1.1223, 1.1244 and 1.1265 levels. In case the price breaches 1.1280, the pair would extend its rally by another 100-150 pips. We strongly recommend selling below the neck line (NL) for 150 pips down side target.

Trade-

Buying above 1.1211

Selling below 1.1149

Panic below 1.1072

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