USD/CHF - Mathematical analysis with Murray lines for August 15, 2013 Trend News

Daily Graphic

The USD/CHF pair again lost ground against the U.S. dollar during the session on Wednesday 14, peaking at 0.9376 and then closing the day at 0.9354. The rate is trading currently at 0.9384 nearly 30 opening price points and with a high probability of closing on line 5/8 located in 0.93399 Murrey comes to be the top line of its trading range. However, at this point the first line of resistance of its trading band is located; it is likely to cause the price to retract from this resistance zone as it also coincides with the R-2 weekly. The producer price index (PPI) was held during the month of July and was lower than the increase estimated at 0.4% and 0.1% in the previous month.

Graphic 4-Hour

In 4H charts we see the USD/CHF pair is receding line 8/8 (blue line) located at 0.9399. This area according to the Murray theory is considered as the last line of resistance which is hard to break. Also keep in mind that the price came to this area after having broken the upper line of its trend channel on the H4, but it also collided with the top line of the trend channel on the H1. So this could be its final push to the upside for a change of direction. However, we must wait a second attempt to cross the 0.9399 area to minimize the risk and enter the market selling. Conversely if we decide to go below 0.9369, we place our stop loss above 0.9460 where the line is located +2/8 price extreme line we see that the pair is unlikely ever to meet.

Graphic 1-Hour

Finally at 1-hour chart there is a similar picture to 4-hour, with a receding line 8/8 which, as already mentioned, is considered to be the last line of resistance and 0.9354 support finding where the line is located 5/8 (line green) becomes the top line of its trading range. Besides the trend oscillator is in sales area. So it may be a good opportunity to enter sales orders in the medium term. But it is suggested to wait a new upward momentum to give hard sales positions and minimize risk.

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EUR/JPY H1 analysis for August 15, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 15/08/2013 09:30 CET:

The price is currently testing critical intraday support zone at 129.71 - 129.95. The current price action is full of whipsaws, that is typical for a corrective cycle, not for an impulsive cycle.

A lack of impulsive wave progression to the downside puts alternate count more probable now: this means new high is possible if golden trend line is broken. Nevertheless, the immediate target for alternate wave (v) is still at 130.79 level and price should get rejected from this level.

On the other hand, no trend line break will expose the 129.71 level for another test, and if this level gets broken, then next support for price is Weekly Pivot at 129.17.

Support/Resistance:

127.99 - 128.22 - DEMAND ZONE

128.91 - Intraday Support

129.17 - Weekly Pivot

129.71 - Technical Support | Wave a Low |

129.71 - 129.95 - Intraday Support Zone

130.65 - Intraday High

130.79 - Wave (v) Target Projection

Trading recommendations:

If golden trend line is broken - long positions should be in play with tight SL and potential TP @ 130.79.

If golden trend line is not broken - short positions should be in play with SL above the recent high and potential TP @ 129.71

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#USDX Analysis for August 15, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has reached our target of 81.90 and got rejected at the downward sloping blue trend line. We mentioned before that confirmation of the trend reversal would come if this trend line was broken but this did not happen. The price may be correcting the upward move from 80.86 to 81.90 but we will have to wait and see if prices resume the upward momentum they had the previous two days.

Resistance now is found at 81.90 and if broken, the price will test 82.40-50 area where the intermediate term trend is challenged. The upward move from the lows could be labeled impulsive and we will have to wait and see the form the recent decline from 81.90. If the decline is corrective in nature then we could try and enter long near the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement with the low as stop. Otherwise we could wait and see for an upward break of the resistance. This implies that we enter long at a higher price further away from the stop, but we will have incresed chances of succes as trend will have changed to up.

As shown in the chart above, the price has broken down from the short-term upward sloping channel as we believe the impulsive wave from the lows was complete. The decline if it iscorrective should stop near the 50% or 61,8% retracement and resume upwards. The short-term support is found in those two retracement levels and resistance is found at 81.75 and 81.90. Breaking those levels the bullish scenario will see its chances of success increased.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for August 15, 2013 Trend News

Gold bounced off support levels at 1,315 yesterday and managed to break above the short-term resistance. It is now testing the previous highs at 1,349-50 area. We remain short with this level as a stop, reverse with 1,385 first target if resistance is broken. If the price gets canceled once again at that price level, then we should expect another leg down towards 1,300 at least.

Gold prices are trading within the two blue trendlines and if one wants to trade this metal in a safe way, then one should wait for a breakout to occur. Otherwise, we can prefer short positions near the resistance and long positions near the support. In each case, the positions should be stopped and reversed if a trend line breaks. Gold if rejected will fall towards 1,300-1,305 and then we will see if it has more downside potential. Falling towards 1,300-1,305 will not cancel any bullish potential.

Gold has bounced just right off the 38% Fibonacci retracement and pushed back up towards the highs. We can expect another leg down towards the 50% or 61,8% retracement. Bulls should get worried only if the price fall further than the 76,4% retracement.

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Silver inching towards 22.50 Resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has staged an impressive rally towards 22.20/30 levels till now. The 20.50 region should be past resistance turned support for the time being. A final push higher towards 22.50 would be required to confirm a major bullish reversal though. Resistance is at 22.50/23.00 levels, while support is at 19.20 and lower for now. Hence it is recommended to exit short positions, and watch out for the price reaction at 22.50 levels, before concluding a possible trade setup. The overall trend still remains bearish for now and a failure at 22.50 would warn a bearish reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.

Good luck!

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