Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was established.

Daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origшт of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) extended the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2250.

Last week, after bears could fixate below 1.2360, the EUR/USD pair has shown bullish recovery again above it due to the lack of bearish pressure below 1.2255.

The price level of 1.2200-1.2250 remains under bearish pressure as long as the bearish spikes established at the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2565 remain defended by bears.

Risky traders should note that bearish breakout below 1.2250 exposes a potential projection target located around the price level of 1.2100.

Until then, conservative traders should remain considering price zone of 1.2250-1.2220 as an important DEMAND zone for low-risk LONG entries (backside of the previous broken channel as well as the previous WEEKLY low).

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Silver daily analysis for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

As shown in today's 4H chart, the metal failed to break the support level of 15.70 yesterday and reversed its downward trend to trade below the resistance level of 16.00. Currently, it is bouncing from the support level and starting a bullish move. So we still suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 16.00 to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 16.50. Then after breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 16.75, which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the resistance level of 16.00, it cancels the bullish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.75), R2 (16.50), R1 (16.00), S1 (15.70), S2 (15.40), S3 (15.00).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Last week, the GBP/USD pair found intraday DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were previously established back in November.

Moreover, previous multiple bottoms were established above 1.5550-1.5580, rendering it a prominent DEMAND zone.

The DAILY outlook favors the bullish scenario initially towards 1.5800, then towards 1.6920 (previous consolidation range low) provided that bulls keep defending the lower limit of the current consolidation range around 1.5550.

Another less probable scenario: a bearish flag pattern that waits for a bearish breakout below 1.5550 (similar to what happened back in October). Projection target would be located around the price level of 1.5200.

The current outlook is bearish on the 4H chart. Successive lower highs and lows have been established before the current ranging movement started to occur.

A consolidation movement ranging between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 took place. It represents state of indecision in the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.

Intraday traders should wait for bullish pull-back towards the recent SUPPLY zone located around 1.5775-1.5810 for a low-risk SHORT position.

Risky traders should note that bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposes potential bearish projection targets around 1.5330.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Proceeding from the today's 4H chart, the pair is still trading between the support level of 185.80 and the resistance level of 186.70, and currently the pair fails again to break the resistance level. If the pair breaks it to take an upward movement, it might continue its bullish trend, and we will get a good opportunity to buy above the resistance level of 186.70 again untill the closure of 4H above the resistance level of 187.70 as a level target. Then we should wait for breaking this resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the resistance level of 188.50. On the other hand, if the pair failed to break the resistance level of 186.70 and bounces from it, it may take a downward trend, which will enable the support level of 185.80 again. Therefore we suggest waiting for the next closing before making the decision.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (188.50), R2 (187.70), R1 (186.70), S1 (185.80), S2 (185.00), S3 (184.40)

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated. Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.6450, 1.6170, and 1.5940 where the upper limit of the channel came to meet the pair.

The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.

Failure of the market to defend the price zone of 1.5890-1.5900 allowed bears to push towards the support level located around 1.5600.

The GBP/USD pair looked quite oversold after such long bearish swing off 1.6500.

Bullish correction was anticipated around 1.5600 as it is a prominent WEEKLY support corresponding to multiple previous tops established back in May and June 2013. That is why the market meets prominent bullish rejection each time bears push below 1.5600 - 1.5580

Bullish fixation above the price level of 1.5760 (bullish breakout of the daily bearish channel) exposes the price levels of 1.5880 and 1.5950 for retesting.

However, less probably, a break below the recent bottoms established around 1.5580-1.5540 renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projected target at 1.5310 like what happened back in October.

Trade Recommendation:

Wait for bullish fixation above 1.5760 for a LONG entry with SL as daily closure below entry levels. TP should be located at 1.5800 and 1.5880.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Three months ago, the price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend within the depicted daily channel. Successive higher highs and lows are being established within the channel's limits.

As anticipated, the bullish breakout above 1.1440 allowed bulls to push towards 1.1650 where the upper limit of the bullish channel is located as well as 61.8% Fibonacci level of a previous prominent bearish swing.

During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between 1.1430-1.1330 and recently around 1.1480, the bullish breakout above which allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.1540 and 1.1670 which got visited this week.

The price zone of 1.1430-1.1460 remains the nearest SUPPORT zone for the current prices. It corresponds with the lower limit of the daily channel as well as the previous high that goes back to November.

Persistence above this zone signaled the bullish tendency towards 1.1660-1.1690 (significant RESISTANCE zone).

The price level of 1.1650 (which was our bullish final target) roughly corresponded with the upper limit of the bullish channel as well as 61.8% Fibonacci level. Long positions should have been left already.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders should look for SHORT positions around price levels of 1.1650. SL should be located above 1.1700.

Conservative traders should be looking for a pull-back towards 1.1440 for a LONG position. SL should be set as daily closure below 1.1400.

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Gold analysis for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,195.00. We are waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.195.00 (currently on the test). According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak supply on the market, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further bullish phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,208.77

R2: 1,214.77

R3: 1,224.47

Support levels:

S1: 1,189.37

S2: 1,183.37

S3: 1,173.67

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5744 in a volume below the average. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance level. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.6160 was held successfully, and it made price start with an downward movement. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5800 (already broken) and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5590. We also got support level around the price of 1.5670 (swing low like support). Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we may see a lower price.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5990

R2: 1.6047

R3: 1.6139

Support levels:

S1: 1.5806

S2: 1.5749

S3: 1.5657

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we have a strong supply in the background.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. USD/JPY is supported by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 13.53% to 16.81, S&P 500 closed up 2.4% at 2,061.23 overnight) as investors remained reassured by the Federal Reserve's pledge on Wednesday to be "patient" on raising interest rates, while data out of Germany and the U.K. were upbeat. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.207% versus 2.135% on late Wednesday), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.21 versus 89.07 on early Thursday), fewer than expected 289,000 U.S. jobless claims for a week ended on December 13 (versus forecast 295,000), demand from Japan's importers and the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the drop in Markit U.S. services PMI (flash reading for December) to 53.6 from 56.2 in November, fall in the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business index to 24.5 in December from November's 40.8. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish Mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.60 and the second target at 120.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 117. The pivot point is at 118.40.

Resistance levels:

119.60

120.15

120.45



Support levels:
117.75

117

116.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a two-year high 0.9848 on Thursday. CHF sentiment was hurt after the Swiss National Bank said on Thursday it would charge a negative interest rate of 0.25% on deposits from January 22 to cool the strength of the Swiss franc. USD/CHF is also supported by positive dollar sentiment and franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is in bullish mode, the MACD is turning bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9840 and the second target at 0.9890. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9715. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 0.9660. The pivot point is at 0.9055.

Resistance levels:

0.9840

0.9890

0.9915

Support levels:

0.9715

0.9660

0.9605

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range.It is supported by the kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment and the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.21 versus 89.07 on early Thursday) on fewer than expected 289,000 U.S. jobless claims for a week ended on December 13 (versus forecast 295,000).

Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are neutral.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7835. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 0.7670. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7625. The pivot point is at 0.7735.

Resistance levels:

0.7810

0.7835

0.7870



Support levels:

0.7670

0.7625

0.7585

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains upside are limited by the Japanese export sales, soft EUR/USD undertone and positions adjustment before weekend. GBP sentiment is boosted by stronger than expected 1.6% on month and 6.4% on year increase in the U.K. November retail sales (versus forecast +0.4% on month, +4.5% on year).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels, inside day range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 187.70 and the second target at 188.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 184.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 183. The pivot point is at 185.20.

Resistance levels:

187.70

188.45

189.35

Support levels:

184.35

183

182.5

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 19, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 19/12/2014 09:30 CET

The count has been changed a little and now it is indicating a more complex corrective cycle WXY brown in wave 4 purple, where wave Y brown has not been completed yet. The degree of the waves has been raised one step higher and this is why it is taking so long for the market to complete the corrective cycle this time of the year. The level of 1.1670 is acting as a strong intraday resistance level. Despite the fact it has been tested three times, the market still can not break through it. Nevertheless, the most important support is the intraday support at the level of 1.1559 and the dynamic support provided by the golden trend line. In case of any downside breakout, the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.1533 should provide a strong level to bounce from. Please notice that the bias is still bullish and at least one more impulsive wave to the upside should be made sooner or later.

Support/Resistance:

1.1727 - WR2

1.1670 - Intraday Resistance

1.1666 - WR1

1.1559 - Intraday Support

1.1531 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Trading inside of a complex corrective cycle is rather hard thing to do and traders should refrain from trading this pair until a clear breakout is made. In case of upward breakout , daytraders might consider opening buy stop orders from the level of 1.1672 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.1727.

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