Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 108.97 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.98 versus 85.41 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of its monthly bond-buying program and delivered a slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement as it offered a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. labor market and economy. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.321% versus 2.284% late Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales, selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.28% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at 1,982.3 overnight) as the Fed's latest policy statement renewed concerns over higher interest rates.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.30 and the second target at 109.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.55. The pivot point is at 108.35.
Resistance levels:
109.30
109.55
109.90
Support levels:
107.90
107.55
107.35
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-week low 0.7766 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the less-hawkish-than-expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy statement as the central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.5%. The RBNZ has shifted, removing the mild tightening bias and implicitly making the next policy move open-ended, Citigroup says. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive USD sentiment and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid the subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.
Technical comment:
Daily is chart mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is reverted to bearish mode, bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7805. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7760. The pivot point stands at 0.7880. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7855.
Resistance levels:
0.7910
0.7955
0.7990
Support levels:
0.7805
0.7760
0.7735
Overview:
In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6234 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). We can observe that price went into bearish corrective phase according to the previous strong bullish leg so I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bearish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6095 (held successful). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe potential end of a beairhs corrective phase (abcd), which is a sign that selling looks risky. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we may see further upward movement. Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows). According to the daily chart, we got weak supply in a volume below the average.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6250
R2: 1.6312
R3: 1.6412
Support levels:
S1: 1.6050
S2: 1.5988
S3: 1.5888
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test
Overview:
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,199.56 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,210.00 is broken, which is a sign that the price go to test the level of 1,183.00 (swing low like support). According to the daily time frame, we got demand in a volume below average, which caused the price to start with donward movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,206.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,210.00. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,229.65
R2: 1,234.89
R3: 1,243.37
Support levels
S1: 1,212.69
S2: 1,207.45
S3: 1,198.97
Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since price has broke Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/USD pair drops below 1.2600 (interim) support, but is still expected to carve a higher bottom above 1.2500. The pair is testing fibonacci 0.786 support around 1.2560 levels as seen here. A bullish reversal here would still drag prices higher up to the 1.3100 mark in the sessions to come. On the flip side, a drop below 1.2500 would delay matters further and bring in bears to regain control. Support is now at 1.2500 on the 4H chart view while resistance is seen at 1.2760, followed by 1.2850/1.2900 levels respectively. It is still recommended to initiate long positions now (1.2570/80), risk remains below 1.2500.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop below 1.2500, the target is 1.3120.
Good luck!
The Dollar index has held support yesterday. After the FOMC minutes, the greenback strengthened and broke above resistance levels signaling the start of a new upward move that could push the index towards 91. The trend is bullish as long as price is above 85.15.
Red line = broken resistance
Black line=broken trend line resistance
The Dollar index has bounced strongly off the Ichimoku cloud support after making a low at 85.20. The Dollar index has managed to hold above the cloud support and has also showed signs of strength by breaking above 86. The trend is bullish and this trend reversal could signal the start of a new upward move in the Dollar index. For this to hold, the Dollar index should not break below 85.20.
The Dollar index is progressing as expected from the bullish flag break out as we noted several days ago, producing a new higher high and a higher low, confirming the bullish trend. Resistance at 86.75 should now be tested and broken, otherwise we might be in danger of seeing a pull back towards 84.
Gold price has broken short-term support at $1,221 and price is moving towards our short-term target of $1,200 already. My longer-term view remains bearish targeting $1,050. Important resistance for a trend change is the $1,240.
Red line=broken support
Gold price has made a lower low and remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Next support is at $1,200 and at $1,180. This support area is strong and could produce a bigger bounce towards $1,265 but I would again prefer not to take any bullish trades and only look for levels to sell Gold. The short-term resistance is at $1,225 and at $1,240. Breaking above $1,240 will give me $1,265 as the 1st target. The trend however remains bearish and I continue to prefer short positions.
The weekly chart remains fully bearish as price has now moved away of the critical resistance at $1,237 that was needed to be broken on a weekly basis in order for Gold price to bounce higher towards $!,265 or even $1,300. The bearish weekly formation combined with the rejection at the Ichimoku cloud, continues to support my longer-term bearish view that eventually we will break $1,180.
Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 1.6263
R2: 1.6240
R1: 1.6211
Current spot: 1.6143
S1: 1.6133
S2: 1.6099
S3: 1.6055
Technical summary:
Red wave ii ended at 1.6003 (dangerous close to our stop at 1.6000). The rally of the 1.6003 low is clearly impulsive in character and after a small correction to 1.6099 the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6498 should be seen. Only an unexpected decline below 1.6003 will invalidate the immediately bullish count and call for the alternative count, showing and expanded diagonal developing, but the odds for this possibility is very very low now.
Trading recommendation:
We are long in EUR from 1.6065 with stop placed at 1.6000. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6099 with the same stop at 1.6000.
Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 137.72
R2: 137.52
R1: 137.42
Current spot: 137.41
S1: 137.22
S2: 136.90
S3: 136.70
Technical summary:
The correction in wave B ended slightly higher than the ideal 137.82, with a top at 138.03. Now, we will be looking for a break below support at 136.56 as the final confirmation, that wave B did indeed end at 138.03 and wave C lower to 130.99, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A. Short term, we will be looking for resistance at 137.53 to protect the upside for the decline to 136.59 and below.
Trading recommendation:
We are short in EUR from 137.70 with stop place at 138.10. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.52 with the same stop at 138.10
General overview for 30/10/2014 07:50 CET
The low anticipated yesterday for purple wave (2) looks to be in place now. The market move is just below the golden trendline and it is waiting for a breakout. The key level for the market is the level of 1.1292 and any breakout above the level is bullish with a high possibility of new highs to be made. Moreover, any failure at that level means that the corrective cycle will be more complex and time-consuming.
Support/Resistance:
1.1070 - 1.1080 - Demand Zone
1.1074 - WS3
1.1128 - WS2
1.1182 - Intraday Support
1.1185 - WS1
1.1240 - Weekly Pivot
1.1262 - Intraday Resistance
1.1292 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level for Bears|
1.1295 - WR1
1.1351 - WR2
1.1384 - Swing High
Trading recommendations:
The buy orders opened yesterday should be still kept open and SL for those orders should be now moved higher above the level of 1.1100. Any breakout above the level of 1.1220 provides further opportunity to add more buy orders with the same SL and TP levels as before.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair has almost hit 138.00 levels yesterday before pulling back. The pair could retrace a bit before hitting the next target at the 138.80 levels. The pair is at 137.45/50 at the moment. It is recommended to book at least partial profits, the target remains for 138.80 exit. Support is seen at 136.50, followed by 135.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00, followed by 140.20 respectively. The pair could push higher up to the 138.70/80 levels before giving a meaningful retracement. In the longer run, the pair has got potential to rise up to 140.50 and higher as seen here.
Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions partially. Hold remaining long positions, stop is 135.00, the target is 138.70.
Good luck!
General overview for 30/10/2014 07:30 CET
As anticipated two days ago the one to one equal legs market geometry pattern between waves a and c green has been completed and supply zone has provided the resistance necessary to move the market down. Currently it looks like intern sub-cycle wave -i- is completed and now the market is in wave -ii- of the cycle. When the correction is finished, the market should break below the level of 137.25 in impulsive fashion and continue lower. Nevertheless, the key support for the bulls is still at the level of 136.48 and only a breakout below this level confirms the top for wave B black at the level of 138.04. On the other hand, any breakout higher above the supply zone invalidates the immediate impulsive bearish scenario.
Support/Resistance:
138.11 - WR1
138.06 - Projected Target Level For wave B |Key Level for Bears|
137.92 - Intraday Resistance
137.80 - 137.93 - Supply Zone
137.24 - Intraday Support
136.66 - Weekly Pivot
136.48 - Intraday Support|Key Level for Bulls|
136.11 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
Sell positions opened yesterday should still be kept open. Just to remind you: SL above the level of 138.11, TP below the level of 137.24.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF dropped close to 1.5200 levels yesterday before pulling back higher. The pair is trading around 1.5300 levels at the moment and bears should resume down swing till prices are below 1.5340/50 levels. Support is seen just below 1.5200 levels, followed by 1.5100, 1.4975 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5550/5 respectively. It is recommended to remain short from last week, risk remains above 1.5450. The pair could drop below 1.4700 levels if 1.5350 and subsequently 1.5450 levels (resistances) hold good.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, set stop above 1.5450, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has tested the range lows at sub $17.00 levels again. Please note that it is also at the fibonacci 0.618 support (sub $17.00 levels). The metal could be preparing to rally from current price levels up to $18.50 in the days to come. Hence recommendations are to remain long, risk is below $16.60 for now. Support is seen at $17.00, followed by $16.60 and lower, while resistance is seen at $18.00 levels, followed by $18.80/19.00 and higher respectively. Bulls could be determined to take control back till prices remain above $16.60 .
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, set stop at $16.40, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold has dropped to $1,210.00 levels as discussed and expected earlier. Please also note that the metal is at fibonacci 0.618 support levels of the rally between $1,183.00 and $1,255.00. It is recommended to exit short positions taken earlier (last week) and initiate long positions, with risk at $1,180.00 levels. Support is seen at $1,205.00 followed by $1,183.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,225.00, followed by $1,255.00 (interim), $1,275.00 and higher respectively. The metal is moving sideways since yesterdays' drop and bulls are expected to resume rally from here.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, set stop at $1,179.00, target is open.
Good luck!
The cross is trading at a 2-week high. The cross managed to hold the 20Wsma. In the daily chart, we can see the minor double top at 174.76 levels on a closing basis. On a monthly closing basis, the pair must close above 177.80 levels. In case, if the cross closes below 177.80 we can clearly see the double top formation in the monthly charts representing down side again back to 168.00 levels, 200Mema. In case, if the cross manages to close above 177.80 the pair can extend its upswing towards 180.70 and 183.50 levels. Including today, we have 1 more trading session left in the current month. In the current month, the cross erased the 3/4th of its losses. We will re-analyze the chart, in case if the pair closes above 177.80 on a monthly closing basis.
Today in Asia's session the cross held the support at 50Dsma, 174.00. We recommend buying only above 174.76 levels. The hourly stochastics is indicating sell mode. The prices are taking support at 21ema, 174.00 levels. We recommend selling below 174.00. The hourly resistance exists at 174.40 35DEMA. The pair will face heavy selling pressure below 173.60, 34hrsma, for an immediate target at 173.00.
Trade:
Buying above 174.80 for targets at 175.02, 175.90
Selling below 173.60 for targets at 173.00
The yellow metal was pushed to a 3-week low. In today's early session the metal holds steady by holding previous low. In yesterday's session the metal fell below 20Dsma and closed below that. The metal has the nearest support at $1,207.00 levels, below this, $1,202.80 and $1,200.00 will act as support levels. On the other hand, the metal has resistance at $1,217.00, above this $1,222.00 and $1,227.00, 20Dsma. For an intraday basis, the prices are taking support at $1,211.70 and facing strong resistance at $1,217.00. A breakout either side will provide further room to trade. In the h4 chart, the momentum oscillators are indicating oversold levels. The metal prices closed far below the 12ema and 35DEMA. We recommend using every rise to sell or sell below 1210.00 and panic will be triggered below 1,207.00 levels. The resistance levels exist at $1,217.00, $1,221.60, 12ema, $1,226.00, 21hrsma, and $1,229.60, 34hrsma. Until the prices close below the 34hrsma selling will mint the money for today and tomorrow as well. For an hourly trade, risky traders, use sl $1,216.50 selling at a market price at $1,213.00 for targets at $1,211.00, $1,207.50, below this, $1,204.00 and $1,200.00 levels. Buying above $1,217.00 for targets at $1,220.00 and $1,221.60 levels.
The cross is trading at 3-week high. The cross managed to breach the 20Wsma, but was unable to sustain above that. In the daily chart, we can see the minor double top at 137.75 levels on a closing basis. On a monthly closing basis, the pair must close above 138.48 levels. In case, if the cross closes below 138.48 we can clearly see the double top formation in the monthly charts representing a downward move towards 135.45 levels. In case, if the cross manages to close above 138.48 the pair can extend its upswing towards 139.40 and 139.90 levels. Including today, we have 1 more trading session left in the current month. In the longer term picture we can see the 131.40 and 129.0 breaks, below this, another steep correction towards 2013 February and March lows. In the current month, the cross erased the 3/4th of its losses. We will re-analyze the chart in case if the pair closes above 138.48 on a monthly closing basis. The Euro is weaker than the Yen.
For an intraday basis, the cross looks weak only below 137.40 levels. We recommend buying above 137.75 levels. In the h4 chart, the hourly Stochastics is indicating a selling signal. The intraday trading pattern is framed between 137.40 and 137.75. We recommend selling below 137.30 for targets at 136.90 and 135.60 levels. We recommend buying above 137.75 and strong momentum only above 138.02 levels. In the hourly chart, the pair made a double top at 138.02 levels. We can expect a strong upswing only above 138.02.
Trade:
Risky traders, buying above 137.75
Safe traders, buying above 138.02
Selling below 137.30
