Overview:
In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4509 in a high volume. We can observe testing of our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.4490. The mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found resitance about the price of 1.4560 (swing low like resistance). My advice is to be careful when buying and to watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4353
R2: 1.4376
R3: 1.4413
Support levels:
S1: 1.4278
S2: 1.4256
S3: 1.4219
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,142.59 in an ultra volume. Our support at the price of $1,142.00 was successfully tested. We can observe buying climax according to the 4H time frame. According to the 5-minute time frame, we have an ultra high buying climax and very weak demand later what is a sign that professional may sell gold at this stage. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. If the price breaks the level of $1,142.00 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing the level of $1,138.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,160.62
R2: 1,163.62
R3: 1,169.27
Support levels :
S1: 1,149.92
S2: 1,146.62
S3: 1,141.27
Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.
The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.4960 which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.
Bulls managed to push towards higher levels including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).
Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily and weekly candlesticks.
Significant demand levels located around 1.5200 and 1.5000 were recently breached indicating a strong bearish tendency on the market.
The price zone of 1.4960-1.5000 is expected to provide significant supply at retesting. It comes to meet the upper limit of the long-term depicted channel.
Recently, GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone around significant bearish pressure of 1.4960-1.5000 was being applied in the market.
As anticipated, H4 persistence below the recent bottom at 1.4900 enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.4800 and 1.4700.
Finally, some bullish recovery is being manifested on the H4 chart after reaching the price levels around 1.4700.
Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5970-1.5030 (recently established SUPPLY zone) for a low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5130.
The market has been aggressively pushing lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Now, the EUR/USD pair is pushing further below monthly demand around 1.0550 (Established on January 1998) where some bullish recovery is expected to exist around.
On the other hand, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450. That's why price action should be watched around the current monthly demand level.
A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. The daily fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (minor consolidation range) confirmed that bearish pattern.
Obvious bearish breakdown of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets initially around 1.0800.
Full Projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.
After the bearish rally off 1.1300, conservative traders should be looking for low-risk BUY opportunities at lower prices.
Price action should be watched around 1.0550 on the H4 and daily charts looking for signs of bullish reversal to confirm buy position we have suggested.
Daily closure above price zone of 1.0630-1.0660 indicates a quick corrective movement towards 1.0850 initially.
Overview:
On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after an ascending bottom was established around 1.5170-1.5200, indicating bullish sentiment on the market.
Projection target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (daily resistance).
Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of a lower limit of the depicted channel occurred, enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as a bearish one.
Significant bearish pressure was applied over the price level of 1.5200 (R2) then 1.4950 (R1=breached weekly support).
Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.
Yesterday, bullish recovery existed after retesting of 1.4700 despite the ongoing long-term bearish momentum.
Bulls should keep defending the recently established low at 1.4700 in order to gather enough momentum to initiate a bullish corrective movement. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.5000.
Trading recommendations:
Wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.4950-1.5000 for a low-risk SELL entry. SL to be set as daily closure above 1.5015.
TP levels should be set at 1.4900, 1.4840 and finally at 1.4700.
Overview:
Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level. The market looks quite overbought.
However, bullish pressure is still being expressed on the market (the previous weekly closure came above 1.2750).
The nearest support level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2620-1.2650 (upper limit of the confirmed wedge pattern), then 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level that provided significant SUPPORT for successive weeks on the DAILY chart).
Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the daily chart. However, the market price action indicated a bullish breakout above 1.2600-1.2660.
Bullish persistence above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2900 and 1.2960, as it confirmed the wedge pattern as a bullish continuation one.
Projection target for the wedge pattern would be roughly located around 1.3060 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).
This week, the current weekly candle closure should be monitored, as the price zone of 1.2680-1.2650 is our key-zone. Weekly closure above it enhances the bullish side of the market in the long term and vice versa.
Trading recommendations:
Risky traders can benefit from the short-term bullish breakout above the wedge-pattern. T/P levels should be set at 1.2880 and 1.2960.
A bearish pullback towards 1.2600-1.2630 will probably offer a valid buy entry for those who missed the initial breakout with SL placed slightly below 1.2570.
Overview :
According to the previous events, the price of the AUD/USD pair has been still trapped between 0.7630 and 0.7692. So, today, the range of this pair is likely to be about 62 pips. Therefore, the first step is to wait for a period of tight sideways market before breakouts. Then, probably, the market is going to start showing bearish signs from the last strong resistance which is set at the level of 0.7710 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels). In other words, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.7710 with the first target at 0.7670, and the price will drop to the level of 0.7631 in order to test this strong support on March 17, 2015. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.7612 will form a double bottom on the H1 chart. However, if the pair fails to break 0.7631, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.7630 because this price will act as a strong support indeed. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.7630 with the first target at 0.7674 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels) and it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards the area of 0.7700/0.7710.
Intraday technical levels :
Overview :
The USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.2703 again and showed the signs of strength following the level of 1.2715. Additionally, the resistance was broken and turned into support at the same key level of 1.2703. Moreover, we expect a range between the levels of 1.2703 and 1.2823. It is equally important that the price is set above the support since the end of the last week. So, the support has been already set at the level of 1.2705 which is coinciding with the ratio of 88.2% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, the weekly resistance is going to be set at the level of 1.2885. Hence, we expect a range around 180 pips (1.2885 - 1.2705) this week. Consequently, the pair has already formed a strong support at 1.2705. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of bullish market, so that the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2705 with the first target of 1.2820 and continues towards the level of 1.2880. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, so it will be wise to set your stop loss at the price of 1.2648.
The daily outlook is showing us a bullish pattern formation, as the USDX is retracing to the support level of 99.19. The instrument is expected to stay above that zone, as the USDX is very strong in the bullish bias. Anyway, if it breaks to the downside, it may fall to the support level of 98.01. That is going to put bullish bias at risk in the short term.
We can see a rejection to the upside road from the high of the 100.17 level on the H1 chart. Also, the USDX will stay above the 200 SMA and the price action does not show any trend-change patterns. So, the main focus is on the resistances zones in the very short term. Remember that the USDX is look for reaching a high at the level of 100.88.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.49 / 101.60
Dailychart's support levels: 99.19 / 98.01
H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.01 / 100.88
H1 chart's support levels: 99.13 / 97.93
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.01, take profit is at 100.88, and stop loss is at 99.13.
The pair recovered from the losses at the session on Monday, as it continues to trade below the resistance level of 1.4820 and is very strong in the bearish bias. As we expected, the GBP/USD pair formed a fractal near to the level of 1.4720. Also, the GBP/USD pair is likely to look for more deeper retracements as the lower low pattern formation is on the way.
At the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair was rejected by the resistance level of 1.4844. The intraday price action is advising us of a possible bearish continuation to the support level of 1.4746, where the pair could do a breakout in order to hit its lowst since March 13. The 200 SMA is still bearish and the MACD indicator is at the negative territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4820 / 1.4948
Dailychart's support levels: 1.4649 / 1.4520
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4844 / 14893
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4746 / 1.4697
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4746, take profit is at 1.4697, and stop loss is at 1.4796.
General overview for 17/03/2015 10:20 CET
The corrective wave to the downside does not look too much impulsive so far and the weekly pivot at the level of 1.2746 is being well supported. This might mean that the wave labeled as (b) green is likely to be just a beginning of another impulsive wave up and the current consolidation is a corrective sub-cycle of this impulsive wave. Please notice that the current count is valid only in case the wave progression is a part of an impulsive wave (5) to the upside. So, lack of impulsive market behavior might be the first clue that wave 4 green of a higher degree is in progress.
Support/Resistance:
1.2917 - WR1
1.2821 - Intraday Resistance
1.2746 - Weekly Pivot
1.2704 - Intraday Support
1.2668 - WS1
1.2596 - Technical Support
Trading recommendations:
The market is still consolidating and the trading advise is still valid. Daytraders should consider opening buy orders if:
- the level of 1.2821 is clearly violated with a minimum H1 close above this level. SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
- the level of 1.2704 provided a clear bounce to the upside, SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
- the level of 1.2596 provided a clear bounce to the upside, SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
General overview for 17/03/2015 10:00 CET
As anticipated yesterday, wave c green is currently unfolding to the upside and the market might try to break out even higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 129.03. However, this move upwards is less impulsive than regular downward moves in the decline. The reason might be that investors and traders are waiting for important fundamental data from the Fed later this week and are not very eager to open new positions beforehand. Moreover, please notice that only a sustained breakout above the level of 131.87 would change the technical picture. On the other hand, any failure at the level of 129.03 might result in another test of lows.
Support/Resistance:
126.89 - Intraday Support
128.41 - Weekly Pivot
129.03 - Intraday Resistance
129.90 - WR1
130.69 - Intraday Resistance
131.59 - 50%Fibo
131.87 - Intraday Resistance
132.45 - 61%Fibo
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 129.03 is clearly violated with a minimum H1 closure above this level. SL should be placed below the level of 126.89 and TP should be placed at the level of 130.69 with a possible extension upward to the level of 131.87.
As we expected, the Dollar index has pulled back towards 99 where short-term support is found. The long-term trend remains bullish. However, we could see a deeper pull back this week if tomorrow the FOMC pushes data about a rate increase to a later point in 2015.
Green line = trend line support
The Dollar index is in a short-term bullish trend. The price is making higher highs and higher lows. It is also above the Ichimoku cloud support and the trend line support. Short-term support is found at 98.65. If it gets broken, we could see a deeper push back towards 98. The Ichimoku cloud indicators are not positively sloped anymore and this is a worrying sign of a short term. We could have seen a short-term top very well .
This does not mean that there is a problem with the longer-term trend, but we should not forget that we have reached very close to the monthly 61.8% retracement, which is a huge resistance. So, selling around this area is expected and normal to be seen. Bulls need to raise their stops and protect their positions. Traders should prefer to be neutral or bullish around these levels.
Gold price continues to trade sideways in the short term and I believe a small triangle pattern is being formed. Support is at $1,147 and resistance at $1,166. Longer-term trend remains bearish with important support at $1,130-40.
Black lines= triangle pattern
Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and is trading sideways in a triangle pattern. This pattern gives a sell signal if $1,147 is broken and a buy signal – if $1,165 is broken. If price breaks lower, I will go short. I will not go long if price breaks resistance at $1,165. I believe this move is likely to be a counter trend move as a part of a corrective bounce. I do not want to go against the longer-term trend, which is bearish.
Blue line = support
Orange lines= bearish channel
An important support at $1,130 is expected to be tested. If it gets broken on a weekly basis, I expect Gold price to continue moving lower towards $900. The long-term trend remains bearish, as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and still inside the downward sloping channel.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold has been moving sideways in an ideal cone formation as depicted on the hourly chart view here. The metal dipped lower towards $1,150.00/51.00 again after hitting a high of $1,164.00 yesterday. It has found consolidation trend line support and bounced back, trading around $1,153.00/55.00 levels at the moment. Bulls seem to have taken control back and are poised to push the metal higher towards at least $1,160.00 again. A break higher above $1,164.00 would be extremely bullish for the yellow metal and confirms that an intermediary bottom is in place at the $1,147.00 level. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at the level of $1,130.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,147.00 (interim), followed by $1,130.00, while resistance is seen at the $1,166.00/70.00 level respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $1,147.00, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical summary:
Wave v does not look anything near complete and we expect resistance at 1.4468 will protect the upside for a break below minor support at 1.4289 and more importantly below support at 1.4257 confirming the next decline towards 1.3878 which marks the first downside target for wave v. At 1.3878 wave v will be equal in length to wave i and it will also be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the top of wave i to the bottom of wave iii subtracted from the top of wave iv.
Trading recommendation:
We will sell EUR here at 1.4316 with stop placed at 1.4470 and place take profit at 1.3900.
Technical summary:
The correction in red wave iv became a little higher than expected, but is still holding below important short-term resistance at 129.06. Look for red wave v lower towards 125.98 soon. In the short term, a break below minor support at 128.09 and a more important break below support at 127.28 is likely to confirm a decline to 125.98. Now, we are in the final parts of wave C decline of the major expanded flat correction, which has been developing for the last three months. When this correction is over, we will be looking for a new impulsive rally higher. But for now, we still have to focus on the downside and look for signs that the bottom could be in place.
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.90 with stop place at 129.10. We will keep our take profit at 126.25. This is very late in the downtrend, but a quick short here at 128.21 with a stop at 129.10 and take profit at 126.25 should still make a nice risk reward.
USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan has just released monetary policy meeting minutes. The BOJ kept stimulus unchanged. The Bank is going to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs), so their amount will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Regard to the outlook, the economy of Japan is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of a decline in energy prices.
The price is consolidating at a 8-year high. Intraday support was found at 121.20 and 121.00. We still opt to recommend buying on every dip. Now, we are revising the targets at 124, 125.00, and 125.75. The prices are making higher lows and higher highs on the h4 chart. Support has climbed from 119.80 to 121.00. It's a good sign for further room for upswing. If the price closes above 121.85 on a weekly basis, we can see 128.00 as well. It's an one-side move all the way to new highs. Another upswing looms above 122.0 with targets at 123.00 and 123.20 in a day or two. Later, 124.00 and 125.00 are expected. Until the h4 candle closes above 120.80, a long trade remains in play. The overall picture favours buying on dips. Key levels to watch: must close above 121.85. Trade: we remain buyers.
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USD/CAD
The pair is consolidating at a higher level of 1.2824. The pair breached the previous high of 1.2798 but was unable to close above that level. Today, early at the Asian session, USD was trading higher against CAD. Bulls are on a safe side in case the price will close above 1.2800 on a daily basis. Bulls and bears are waiting for Wednesday. Intraday support is likely to be found at 1.2750 and 1.2720. Weekly support is seen at 1.2680 and 1.2620. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2800 and 1.2825 and weekly resistance is likely to be found at the level of 1.3000. Bulls must close above 1.2800 as soon as possible. Bulls can challenge 1.3000 and 1.3250 in case prices close above 1.2800. We advised caution near 1.3000 odd level, as it's a multi-month resistance.
EUR/USD
The euro paused its falling steak at the yesterday's session against USD. The euro is trading below 12-year lows against USD. Today, traders eye German ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW economic sentiment, the final CPI, the core CPI, and employment change. It's a busy day ahead of economic data. German ZEW economic sentiment rose 4 consecutive months. We expect the same will repeat in March. The euro fate will be decided on Wednesday. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The euro is the most effecting currency due to the divergence policy of the Central Bank. This divergence proves more downside room to this pair.
Technical view: the pair gained 90 pips at the yesterday session. The price managed to close successfully above hourly moving averages in the h1 chart. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0620 and 1.0685. Support is likely to be found at 1.0560 and 1.0490. We recommend safe buying above 1.0685. We have been recommending to trade with a target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. The euro is trading higher against the US dollar ahead of today's series of data. In case the price closes below 1.0495, bears can challenge 1.0335 and 1.0310 levels in the near term. Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0700. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0490 with targets at 1.0460, 1.0425, 1.0380, 1.0350, and 1.0335.
EUR/JPY
The Bank of Japan has just released monetary policy meeting minutes. The BOJ kept stimulus unchanged. The Bank is going to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs), so their amount will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Regard to the outlook, the economy of Japan is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of a decline in energy prices.
The pair erases most of its Friday's losses. The cross broke 200Wema, 200Msma, and 200Mema as well. These factors represent more bearish views. In the previous week, the pair fell and closed below 200Wema. Parallel support was found at 125.00 and 122.20. In the h4 chart, we can observe distribution around the level of 129.00. We recommend buying above 129.10 with targets at 129.45 and 129.90 initially, and can extend towards 130.80 later. Intraday resistance is seen at 129.05. Intraday support is likely to be found at 127.50. For intraday, we recommend selling below 127.50 with targets at 126.60, 126.00, 125.60, and 125.20. Until the price closes below 130.15, a monthly bearish view remains in play. We can expect intraday strong momentum above 129.10.
Trade: Buying ONLY above 129.10
Tuesday is scheduled to be a quite important day for the UK. At the yesterday's session, the pound rose against USD on the background of weak data from the US. The cable grounded towards the lowest level since mid-2013. The cable made a low at 1.47000. At the yesterday's session, the cable paused its 4 days losing trend and gave a strong close. We recommended buying with sl 1.4738 at the yesterday's session. The pair made a high at 1.4854. Today, traders eye on data from the US building sector. We hinted 500 pips fall, in case the price close below the level of 1.4810. But the event does not occur yet. The EUR/GBP cross is also weighing on the pound. The eurozone is the UK's major trading partner. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure. The prices are trading in a bearish channel. A strong resistance is seen at 1.4945. Until the price closes below 1.4945, a bearish view remains in play. Intraday support is likely to be found at 1.4780. We recommend selling below 1.4770 with targets at 1.4740, 1.4700, and 1.4580 in the near term and at 1.4350 in the medium term. We expect the pair to hit 1.4350 or 1.4200 before May/June. We expect the bottom to be formed After the UK's election. The pound is likely to start moving towards new lows in case of stronger-than-expected data from the US.
Trade: Selling below 1.4770, safe traders selling below 1.4730
Buying above 1.4860
GBP/JPY
The Bank of Japan has just released monetary policy meeting minutes.The BOJ kept stimulus unchanged. The Bank is going to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs), so their outstanding amount will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Regarding the outlook, the economy of Japan is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of a decline in energy prices.
At the yesterday's session, the cable paused its 4 days losing trend and gave a strong close. The pound traded higher against USD & JPY at the yesterday's session. At the today's Asian session, the pound is trading lower against USD and higher against JPY. The cross is trading in the support zone around 177.95 and 177.80, 200Dema, and 200Dsma respectively. Monthly support is found at 176.70 50Wsma. Weekly resistance is seen at 181.50 and 181.65. The panic will be triggered in case the price closes below 177.80. The cross closes below 50Dsma, represents near and short-term outlook remains bearish. On a weekly basis, the cross closes below 20Wsma and is trading below it. Until the price closes below 181.30, the bearish view remains in play. Intraday resistance is seen at 180.20. Intraday support is found at 179.60 and 179.10.
Trade: selling below 179.60 with targets at 179.10,178.90 and 178.70.
Panic below 177.80.
Levels to watch- 177.95 177.80 last hope at 177.60. These are valid for this week.
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