Tuesday 2 July 2013

U.S. Dollar index in bullish trend Trend News

The U.S. Dollar Index has been mainly influenced by new lows in EUR/USD after breaking below 1.30. It is heading higher, maintaining its bullish trend. Both short and intermediate term trends remain bullish. The short-term support is found at 83.25-15 level, whereas intermediate-term support is found at 82.85 price level. As the chart shows below, prices follow a distinctive bullish pattern.



The Dollar index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. This way it maintains bullish momentum and helps traders raise their stops accordingly to protect their positions. Being long in this index would need to use 83.25 as stop for any short-term trade. If prices continue to trade above that level, we will be expecting to see 84.05 till the end of the week.



The bullish trend is supported also by the fact that the 50 day MA is below the current trading level supporting our view. We expect prices to continue higher as long as 83.25 is not broken. For longer-term traders, the 80 price level is the most significant. The longer-term view does not have a clear trend. It looks like it is trading sideways. That is why we are going to focus on short and intermediate term.


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Gold bounce expected to continue Trend News

After a huge sell off in Gold, last Friday was marked as a reversal day. The precious metal has made a strong reversal from $1,179 to $1,230 within a day, signalling that at least a short-term bottom was placed. As you can see in the first chart below, Gold has moved upwards in an impulsive form making 5 waves up. According to the Elliott wave theory, we should now expect a pull back downwards that will most probably test $1,225-1,210 price level.



Gold is starting its downward corrective move, and we prefer short positions with $1,269 as a stop. The downward correction is expected to test the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. At those price levels our short position should be covered and we should start thinking about a long position. This long position is preferred because we believe that Gold has another upward move coming. The longer term chart, as shown below, shows that although Gold is still trading within the downward sloping channel, it has room for an upward bounce.



Gold has touched the lower boundaries of the downward sloping channel and we believe it can bounce towards the upper boundaries. This gives us a target near $1,330. The upward correction we believe is still not over and long positions near $1,210 with $1,179 stop will be preferred with $1,300 as a target. Concluding, in the short term, we are waiting for prices to fall towards $1,210-15 and we will turn bullish with $1,280-1,300 target and $1,179 stop.


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AUD/USD - Buy Long 0.9167 - daily strategy for July 02, 2013 Trend News

The Australian dollar fell after having touching the 0.92 area amid the RBA’s decision on the monetary policy stance. The regulator left its benchmark rate unchanged. As the result the pair fell to the daily support level. There is a likelihood that the pair will fail to break the low of 0.9109 which intensify the possibility of reaching the 0.9285 level, its first weekly resistance. If the pair manages to hit this level, it may quickly rise to the psychological level area of 0.95. Now, looking at the chart, we notice that the MACD indicator has formed three differences, indicating that an upward movement may continue above 0.91. Therefore, we recommend buying at the current price levels.



If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2013 Trend News


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 131.00


R2: 130.64


R1: 130.28


Current spot: 130.04


S1: 129.80


S2: 129.39


S3: 128.92


Technical overview:


With the break above 129.90 we had the confirmation that we needed to exclude the possible running triangle and continue working with our zig-zag wave b towards 131.27 or just above. Once this b-wave is finished, we should expect a powerful decline to the downside, with a minimum target at 124.96, but it is likely to go lower than that. In short term we are looking for support at 129.80, which ideally will protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 131.27. However, it will take a break below 128.85 to invalidate our call for a rally towards 131.27 and indicate that wave b is over and wave c lower already is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking to sell EUR either at 131.15 or upon a break below 128.85 (one order done cancels the other).


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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 2, 2013 Trend News


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6846


R2: 1.6797


R1: 1.6748


Current Spot: 1.6714


S1: 1.6655


S2: 1.6600


S3: 1.6555


Technical overview:


We are still looking for the ongoing X-wave to finish. As long as support at 1.6665 and more importantly support at 1.6600 protects the downside we should see one last push towards the upside for a rally towards 1.6908, before the next powerful decline towards our ideal target at 1.6388 begins. However, looking at the larger picture (see the chart below) we are looking for much higher levels over the coming months/years. As our minimum target for this ongoing correction, we are looking for a 38.2% correction of the decline from 2.5775 to 1.4966, which comes in at 1.9094.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking for a new EUR-selling opportunity at 1.6895 and will place our stop at 1.7010 if the order is filled.



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