Thursday 22 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 22, 2012 Trend News

Chinese manufacturing is recovering as China manufacturing PMI has reached 50.4, compared to the previous 49.5.

The dollar's rival currencies benefited, especially the euro.

The euro is approaching 1.29, the first important resistance during a day with almost no volume from the close of European markets.

The news from China also gave impetus to the stock market indices.

The pound has reached 1.60, although its uptrend does not appear to be very convincing. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc, which has been very lateral lately, emerged from this dynamic and seeks it next target upward against the dollar at 0.93.

The dollar will continue its downward trend, although more attenuated, and hardly exceed 1.2905 against the euro. If it continues it will break the level of1.2930. It seems that the pound has not to overcome 1.5985; the Australian dollar has its bullish target at 1.04.


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GBP/USD Sell Bellow 1.5956 - For November 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The pound has continued bouncing above 1.5850 and the 200 day moving average periods. Now it has the daily fractal 1.5956 in front. Now this level serves as a resistance, so we must observe the price. If the pair is below this level you can sell with targets back towards 1.5870 support. I suggest placing stop loss above yesterday's high. However if your strategy is to buy, a close above 1.5965 increases the likelihood that the pair could continue its upward movement to 1.6066, the moving average level of 100 periods and Fibonacci retracement line. Given that in the medium term we remain bullish for the pound, you should consider all retreat to the daily supports, as there is an opportunity to buy the pair. I think that in the coming months, the pound will be trading at the key levels of 1.63 and 1.65.



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Silver Remains Bullish. Buying On Dips Recommended Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The above structure confirms that the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulder has been carved out at 32.00 level. Technically, 32.00 should hold for now and all intraday dips should be well capped before it. The lined up resistances are 34.30/40 and 35.00 respectively, while support levels are 32.00 and 31.25 respectively. All intraday dips from here on should be considered as opportunities to take fresh buy positions. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, move stop at 31.50 from 30.50, and target is open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Looking Higher Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The yellow metal has carved out fresh higher lows near the 1,719 level. The overall structure remains invariably constructive for bulls and they are now poised to register fresh highs as depicted above. The next levels of resistances to be watched out are 1,750/60, 1,780/85, and 1,795 respectively. Intermediary support is now at 1,719 level, while strong support is to be provided by 1,700/05 levels respectively. It is not seen on the chart, but the bulls are ready to strike 1,850 level before a meaningful pullback. It is recommended to ride this rally and keep adding positions on dips.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier from 1,685 level, stop at 1,680, and target is open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Remains Unchanged. Ride The Rally and Move Risk Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The rally from 100.20/30 levels has fetched almost 500 pips. It is recommended to book around 50% profits for long positions taken last week. Furthermore, as depicted above, immediate support is at 104.00 level, followed by 103.50 and 103.00 respectively. Minor resistance is to be faced at 106.50/60 levels, while strong resistance is at 108.00 level. A meaningful pullback should be materialized, once the prices reach 108.00 level. Please restrain from fresh buying at the moment; a dip closer to 105.00 will be ideal to buy again. Still looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, move stop at 104.00 from 103.00. Target 1 is at 106.50, target 2 is at 108.00. Please keep taking partial profits and re-enter buying again.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf In A Trading Range Between 1.4950-1.5050. Breakout Awaited Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The structure remains sideways in smaller timeframes between 1.4950 (Support) and 1.5050 (Resistance). It is recommended to play the game of support (buy) and resistance (sell) at the moment, until a breakout unfolds on either side. As discussed yesterday, 1.5150/60 resistance levels remains key for bears to stay in control of bearish price action. Intermediary support is 1.4950 and then 1.4800, while strong support is 1.4700. A breakdown of 1.4950 level will bring prices lower, very fast. Look to play the range at the moment; with a bearish view until 1.5150 is intact.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on the short positions taken earlier with a stop at 1.5150/60 and target at 1.4600. Furthermore, short-term range trading is advisable; 1.4950 (Buy) and 1.5050 (Sell). A break on either side will shoot the prices, so trade accordingly.


Good Luck!


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Fundamental Analysis For November 21, 2012 Trend News

The euro reversed when finance ministers failed to agree on a Greek debt package. The currency was little changed at 1.2821 against dollar, after earlier weakening as much as 0.6%.

The yen weakened against 15 of 16 major counterparts. According to the Finance Ministry Japan’s exports fell 6.5% in October from a year earlier, leaving trade deficit of 549 billion yen ($6.7 billion).

U.S. jobless claims decreased by 41,000 to 410,000 in the week ended Nov.17, the Labor Department reported today.


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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.2835 - For November 21, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

During the Asian session the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.2740 support; as there is a very strong support above 1.27. According to the graph the euro is in a bearish channel. It is likely to reach the 1.2835 level, at this level we recommend selling the pair. On the other hand, a break of the downtrend line bluntly and a weekly close above 1.2850 increases the odds of a new upward sequence, which targets at the next fractal 1.3005.


However, the 200 day moving average periods is just above 1.2820. Thus, we recommend paying attention to this level, because the outlook of the euro will be bullish above this level.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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GBP/USD Fractal 1.5956 - For November 21, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The British pound remains bullish above the 200 day moving average periods. We talked about it in the previous articles. However, according to the table of fractals, fractal is at the level of 1.5956, strong resistance. Recently this level act has acted as a strong support. Now it is the resistance that the pair must overcome before continuing its upward trend. Therefore, we recommend selling at this level, but if the pair closes above 1.5960, we recommend closing the order, because it is likely to be a bullish move higher.




In the long term we remain bullish from 1.5850, our key level. So if the pair manages to return to this level we can consider it as an opportunity to buy at low prices with medium-term targets to 1.6135 and 1.63.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for November 21, 2012 Trend News


USD/JPY Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the USD/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, impulsive 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (A) wave (coloured green) was developing. Yesterday during the European session we could observe sideways movement between 81.12 and 81.40 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the USD/JPY pair started pushing higher reaching a new high at 81.75. Today this major pair is trading around 82.10 level and we are expecting to see the price lower when development of the corrective B wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave B should retrace 61.8% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 80.14 (61.8% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 82.50 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 80.67 (S2) 80.90 (S1) 81.29 (PP) 81.52 (R1) 81.91 (R2) 82.14 (R3) 82.53


Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 82.00 with stop loss 82.50 and take profit at 80.14 are recommended.


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Gold Dips To Support Region. Another Opportunity To Go Long Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The structure cannot get better than this. The yellow metal has dipped down to its support region near 1,720 and bounced back. The prices remain well supported above the 1,700/1,705 region, while resistance remains at 1,750/60, 1,770/80, and 1,795 respectively. Please note that 1,705.00 (probable right shoulder) remains key support for the rally to continue further. It is recommended to go long again, around current price action (1,721/22); please watch out for bullish signals appearing on smaller timeframes (15min/1hr) to build further long positions. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier (1,685.00), buy further on dips, stop at 1,680, and target open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Prints Higher. 103.00 Remains Key Support Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The structure for single currency pair remains constructive for bulls. As depicted above, 103.00 level remains key support for this rally to continue further. Resistance at 104.50/60 was cleared yesterday; next major resistance is now at 108.00 level. It is recommended to consider intraday dips as opportunities to take fresh long positions and/or add further longs. Please note, that 103.00 level, which was backside test, remains strong support and until the prices are above it, expect higher highs to be carved out. Looking higher from here.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold long positions taken earlier (100.50), buy on further intraday dips, stop at 103.00, and target open.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Trading Sideways For Now. 1.5150/60 Intermediary Resistance Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


As depicted above, the single currency pair is trading sideways for now; the trading range is 1.4950-1.5050. Structurally, 1.5150/60 is intermediary resistance now and till the time prices remain below, they are headed lower. Intermediary support is around the 1.4800 region, while strong support will be provided by 1.4700. It is recommended to go short on rallies through 1.5050-1.5100. 1.5150/60 is key for bears to remain in control. Looking lower for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Selling rallies towards 1.51 should be favored. Stop at 1.5150/60, and target at 1.4600.


Good Luck!


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