EUR/NZD analysis for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4826 in an average volume. The resistance level at the price of 1.5200 was held successfully and it caused the price to start with downward movement. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.4865 is on the test so be careful when selling EUR/NZD. Anyway, the major long-term support is around the price of 1.4785. According to the H1 timeframe, we can observe weak supply around the price of 1.4828. My advice is to watch for potential bullish opportunities with better conditions. Any larger reaction from our support levels may confirm a further phase.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5003

R2: 1.5056

R3: 1.5142

Support levels:

S1: 1.4831

S2: 1.4778

S3: 1.4692

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).

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Gold : analysis for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,210.00. We can observe demand in a high volume on the market. According to a 30-minute time frame, we got a selling climax and an absorption volume in the background, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. We have a resistance level around the price of $1,235.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to a daily time frame, we got demand in a volume above average.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels :

R1: 1,218.86

R2: 1,227.63

R3: 1,235.36

Support levels :

S1: 1,202.36

S2: 1,194.63

S3: 1,185.86

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement (buy on the dips).

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

By the end of 2014, the EUR/AUD pair declined rapidly off 1.5330 reaching down to 1.3970 where bullish recovery was manifested.

Recently the EUR/AUD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel until the price level of 1.4800 was reached few weeks ago.

The price level of 1.4800 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent bearish swing. Around it a DOUBLE-TOP bearish reversal pattern was expressed.

Confirmation of the reversal pattern required DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.4500, which corresponds to the most recent bottom. This has already occurred on Wednesday.

If the current daily closure persists below 1.4500, initial projection target would be located around 1.4300 and then 1.4270 where the lower limit of the newly-established H4 channel is located.

Note the bullish spike of the yesterday's daily candlestick. It represents the failure of bulls to gather enough momentum to push above 1.4500 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Trading recommendations:

DAILY closure below 1.4500 indicated a low-risk SELL entry. TP levels would be located around 1.4300 and 1.4270. SL should be set as daily closure again above 1.4500.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's monthly candlestick).

Bearish breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later.

Conservative traders were suggested to wait for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the EUR/USD pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700). However, the EUR/USD bulls did not show enough bullish momentum to reach these levels.

Instead, a bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (recent bottom) confirmed this bearish pattern.

Risky traders could benefit from DAILY breakdown of 1.1260 (recent DEMAND level). This probably indicates a quick bearish visit towards the WEEKLY low around 1.1110.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960, which have not been visited since July 2013.

Around the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280.

Two weeks ago, the ongoing bearish trend was terminated when bullish breakout above 1.5200 took place, as depicted on the chart. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel.

Estimated projection targets are located around 1.5600-1.5640 where the previous consolidation zone was located. However, earlier, around 1.5550 bears have applied significant bearish pressure resulting in the formation of a bearish engulfing daily candlestick without further retesting of 1.5600.

By the end of the last week, the GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the price zone of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which failed to provide enough RESISTANCE over the last bullish swing.

For the current bullish breakout to persist, bulls should keep defending the price zone of 1.5300-1.5330 that is being approached today.

Estimated projection targets for the recent bullish breakout are roughly located around 1.5600-1.5640, which have not been tested yet.

On the other hand, the price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.5350-1.5300 to determine the next destination of the GBP/USD pair.

Bearish breakdown of 1.5300 should not be excluded, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick of yesterday.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The US second estimate GDP for 4Q that is to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT will be in the spotlight (forecast +2.0%). USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.28 versus 94.19 early Thursday), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.038% versus 1.969% late Wednesday), thanks to 2.8% increase in US January durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.6%) and a rise in U.S. January core CPI by 0.2% on-month (versus forecast +0.1%) that raised odds that the Federal Reserve interest rates hike could come as early as June.

USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and news that Japan's Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations would increase its exposure of domestic stocks to 25% from 8%. But the USD sentiment is dented by more-than-expected number of 313,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Feb. 21 (versus forecast 290,000). The USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports, selling of the yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.51% to 13.91, S&P 500 closed 0.15% lower at 2,110.74 overnight) on renewed sell-off in oil prices and by positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but the MACD is in bullish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.65 and the second target at 119.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 119.

Resistance levels:

119.65

119.95

120.35

Support levels:

118.50

118.25

117.95

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the NZD/USD pair established a consolidation zone that extended between the price levels of 1.7620 and 1.7870.

On January 20, bears managed to execute a successful breakout below the major DEMAND level at 1.7620. Shortly after, the bears managed to reach a new low around 0.7200 where significant bullish recovery was executed.

Recently, the NZD/USD pair managed to break above 0.7430 (key level). This price level has been providing significant SUPPORT for the pair so far.

Hence, bullish pressure is expected to be applied over the nearest SUPPLY level to meet the NZD/USD pair around 0.7630.

The H4 chart showed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that originated off the price level of 0.7200 (the most recent low).

Bullish fixation above the neck-line (the price level of 0.7450) confirmed the reversal pattern.

Estimated bullish projection target for the reversal pattern is located around the price level of 0.7676.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7630 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci Level as well as the lower limit of the broken consolidation zone depicted on the chart.

Hence, the price zone of 0.7630-0.7670 should be watched for the price action as low-risk SELL entries can be taken at retesting. Stop Loss should be placed above 0.7700.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9546 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday. The MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9545 and the second target at 0.9580. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9405. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9365. The pivot point is at 0.9445.

Resistance levels:

0.9545

0.9580

0.9605

Support levels:

0.9405

0.9365

0.9325

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a higher range after hitting a five-week high of 0.7613 on Thursday. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment and subdued investor risk appetite, soft commodity prices and 3.8% drop in New Zealand January building consents issued. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels. Bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7615 and the second target at 0.7655. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7515.

Resistance levels:

0.7615

0.7655

0.7690



Support levels:

0.7470

0.7430

0.74

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone, diminished investor risk appetite and Japan's exports. But the GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from the Japanese importers and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, stochastics is bearish, the positive MACD histogram bars are contracting and five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 182.90. The pivot point stands at 184.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70.

Resistance levels:

185.05

185.70

186.15

Support levels:

183.35

182.90

182.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 27/02/2015 10:16 CET

The alternate scenario suggesting an (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) blue triangle pattern might just have been completed and the yesterday's rally might be the first wave upward in shape of the leading diagonal. To confirm this kind of wave progression, the market cannot break below the level of 1.2885 (invalidation level) and it should bounce and reverse at the intraday support at the level of 1.2454. Any violation of this level would lead to the recent low test and possible invalidation of the bullish impulsive scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.2349 - Technical Support

1.2454 - Intraday Support

1.2435 - WS1

1.2496 - Weekly Pivot

1.2531 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's buy orders hit the TP level. Currently, the long side of the market should be considered with SL below the level of 1.2454 and TP at the level of 1.2531 with a possible upward extension.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 27/02/2015 10:00 CET

The Elliott wave sccenario was relabeled as the general projections of the wave development turned out to be slightly different than anticipated. Currently, the whole structure that had been developing inside the golden channel was labeled as a triple-three corrective cycle wave XX brown and one more sub-wave down is expected here before the market will bounce and reverse to the upside. The key level for this bullish scenario is the intraday resistance at the level of 134.43 and any breakout higher is bullish.

Support/Resistance:

137.25 - 137.64 - Projected Target Zone

136.90 - WR1

135.21 - Weekly Pivot

134.43 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|

134.21 - WS1

134.00 - Intraday Resistance

133.54 - Intraday Support

132.56 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 133.54 is violated with SL above the level of 134.00 ant TP at the level of 132.56. Please, notice the wave XX is about to complete and a bounce/reversal is quite possible in this market.

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#USDX technical analysis for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US Dollar index finally made a breakout yesterday. The US Dollar index has made an upward breakout which is a strong buy signal. I would expect a back test of the breakout today and then a resumption of the uptrend towards new highs. The longer-term target remains at 100.

Red lines = triangle pattern

The US Dollar index, as shown on the 4 hour chart above, has broken the triangle pattern upwards. Today we could see a pullback towards 94.80 in order to backtest the breakout. The trend is now bullish in the short term and as long as the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and above 94, the trend will remain bullish and I will be expecting to reach 96 at first.

Black lines = triangle

The breakout is also visible on the daily chart and now the price has moved above the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen lines. This is a bullish sign. The tenkan-sen remains above the kijun-sen supporting that the longer-term trend has never changed and remains fully bullish. My longer-term target is 100-101.

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Gold technical analysis for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price reached the resistance of $1,220, as expected, and got rejected. The trend remains bearish and the support level of $1,200 will be put to the test. If the price manages to hold above $1,200, we could see another new upward reversal that could bring the price above $1,235.

Black line = resistance

Red line = support

Gold price reached the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the level of $1,220 that I mentioned was the target yesterday and got rejected as expected. The trend remains bearish. The price is falling back below the Ichimoku cloud and is now going to test the support at $1,200. Next support is at $1,190. A break of $1,200 will increase the chances of breaking below $1,190 and thus moving towards $1,160-$1,130.

Red line = support

Gold price on the weekly chart remains bearish. The price bounced towards the kijun-sen at $1,220 but got rejected. It is important to see how this week closes. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen (yellow line). The trend is bearish and I expect to see a move towards the red line support at $1,180. This is important support. If this support is held, we could see a strong bounce towards $1,250-60.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading at 133.60/70 levels for now, the lower boundary of its 200 pip trading range. Near-term upside potential remains till 137.50/138.00 levels from here. It is therefore recommended to remain long with risk below 132.50 levels. Bulls seem to be poised to rally and push the pair through 137.50 levels at least. Immediate support is seen at 133.50 (interim), followed by 132.50, 130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 137.50/60 levels, 130.00, 142.30 and higher respectively. A meaningful correction could be expected once the pair reached 137.50/138.00 levels, which is the 0.382 fibonacci resistance of the drop from 149.50 to 130.50 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at 132.50, a target 137.50.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has rallied through the $16.90 levels as expected, before pulling back. The metal is facing a trend line resistance at $16.80/90 levels as seen here, and a push higher is required to instill further confidence in the bullish setup. It is still recommended to remain long with risk at $15.50 levels. Immediate support is seen at $16.00/10 levels, followed by $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/70 levels, followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively. Bulls should be poised to remain in control till prices stay above $16.00 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $15.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 27, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold had raised through $1,220.00 levels as expected and discussed before pulling back again. The metal remained shy of taking out $1,225.00 resistance yesterday, but is still expected to do so today. A 4H snapshot depicted here clearly indicates that the metal has broken out of immediate trend line resistance and is now expected to rally past $1,246.00 levels in the sessions to come by. A break above the larger trend line resistance would confirm that a bottom is in place at $1,190.00 levels. It is recommended to remain long for now, risk remains at $1,170.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,190.00 levels while resistance is seen at $1,225.00, followed by $1,235.00/40.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for February 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

UK GDP in volume terms is expected to have increased by 0.5% between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014. GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.6% in 2014 compared with 2013. The UK economy grew 2.7% annually. Business investment slipped. The fall in oil prices affected the North Sea petroleum industry. These factors influenced the pound sterling. Stronger US data dented the Pound along with the Euro at yesterday's session. The pound lost 1% against the US dollar. Technically, the cable was rejected at 20Wsma and 100Dsma and closed at the lowest point of the day. In Wednesday's article, we recommended buying at 1.5490 with targets at 1.5535, 1.5550, and 1.5564. The cable touched the second target and fell sharply. The prices managed to hold a two-week support trend line on the h4 chart. Today, at the Asian session the pair opened on a bullish note. We can find strong support base between 1.5330 and 1.5300. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.5300. The intraday resistance is found between 1.5430 and 1.5480. The panic will be triggered below 1.5400 with downside targets at 1.5280 and 1.5200. Bulls can challenge again, in case the price closes above 1.5480. For risk lovers, we recommend buying with sl 1.5400 with targets at 1.5430, 1.5444, 1.5465, and 1.5475. From the current market price, the sl is 9 pips away. We can expect strong hourly momentum above 1.5430. Today, traders are awaiting US prelim GDP. We expect the US GDP to rise between 2.0% and 2.1% .

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