Intramonth forecast of EUR/USD for August 13, 2014 Trend News

The pair is trading near a 9-month low. After the yesterday data again the pair was pushed towards the previous low, but held above that. The pair has support at 1.333, below this, 1.33/1.3295 is the major support level. As we have already mentioned in our previous article (Monday), the pair opened its trading higher with bearish bias. The same strategy is still pushing the pair towards support levels. Until the pair trades above 1.3410 this week, the pair is still looking for strong support for a corrective bounce.

The intraweek trading pattern is framed between 1.333-1.3410. On the north side, if it breaches 1.3410, it can fly up to 1.3444 max this week.

Support 1.333 1.3295 1.3250

Resistance 1.3410 1.3444 1.3480

On a broader picture, the pair has managed to close above 100WSma for 3 weeks. Hope next week, we will get a one side direction either 1.3295-1.3250-1.3210 or 1.3444-1.35. We need to wait for this weeks closing price. Please wait for a corrective up move and sell again.

Fresh selling is only below 1.333 or 1.3295.

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Short-term trend levels and an intraday recommendation on Crude for August 13, 2014 Trend News

Short-term view

The crude oil prices took the support at 100WSma, though it hit the 50WSma but managed to close above it. The prices have a support zone between 96.55-96.30, traders can buy between 96.5-94.80 with sl 94.50. As of now, the prices are above 100WSma and 38.2 fib level in the weekly chart. In the short term, if the price hits 94.50, it can extend its fall up to 93.40 and 92.50 levels.

Support 96.50 96.30 94.80

Resistance 97.60 98.66 100.45

The prices are trading below the 200DSma and Ema and far below the 50DSma. Its looks a bit worrying in the near term. But the geopolitical concerns and a minor positive divergence in the daily RSI supports the price to trade above 38.2 fib level.

A breach above 98.66, strong reversals will take place - Pending

A day close above 99.40, weekly trend turns positive - Pending

A weekly close above 97.55, the rest of the month can turn to positive - Pending

Intraday- cmp 97.21

The prices trading above the 35Hrsma made a minor support at 96.80 (15 hr low) in the h4 chart, below this, 95.55 and 96.30 will act as a major support level. Safe trades can buy above 97.50 for targets 98.20, 98.50 and 98.66. Above 98.66, we can see strong up move of up to 124 pips with intermediate resistance.

Support 96.80 96.55 96.30

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 13, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m, German WPI m/m, French CPI m/m, Industrial Production m/m, German 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3430.

Strong Resistance:1.3422.

Original Resistance: 1.3409.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3396.

Target Inner Area: 1.3364.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3332.

Original Support: 1.3319.

Strong Support: 1.3306.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3298.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 13, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim GDP q/q, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.78.

Resistance. 2: 102.38.

Resistance. 1: 102.46.

Support. 1: 102.13.

Support. 2: 101.93.

Support. 3: 101.73.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 13, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX attempted to perform a consolidation above the level of 81.50, but was unsuccessful. Now, the USDX remains below the resistance level of 81.50 and continues forming a bullish pattern. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 82.51.

H4 chart: The USDX continues to find resistance in the bullish trend line that is at the level of 81.70, so this instrument has made a pullback and is likely to fall to the support level of 81.28. Also, if the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 81.02, where the 200-day moving average is located.

H1 chart: The USDX has made a pullback on the level of 81.68 and now is consolidating below the resistance level of 81.58. It is very likely that the USDX will fall to the level of 81.40, where the 200 SMA is located. If the USDX makes a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 81.19. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.58, take profit is at 81.73, and stop loss is at 81.43.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 13, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has made a rebound on the support level of 1.6766, where the pair continues forming a higher low pattern. However, the GBP/USD could go back up the resistance level of 1.6851 and if the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is entering oversold zone.

H4 chart: This pair is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6841. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6900, because the GBP/USD is conducting corrective movements in favor of bearish trend. The 200-day moving average is near the resistance level of 1.6920. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a breakout at the level of 1.6800, so this pair is close to the 200 SMA. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the 1.6850 level, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6900. Furthermore, if this pair does make a breakout at the level of 1.6800, the next target would be the support level of 1.6750.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 9.77% to 14.23; S&P 500 rose 0.28% to close at 1,936.92 overnight) on waning worries over conflict in Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza--although investors remain cautious over the geopolitical risks--and optimism on China's economic prospects as benign inflation data (CPI rose 2.3% on-year in July, same pace as in June) gives room for the People's Bank of China to maintain loose monetary policy. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield last 2.429% versus 2.415% late Friday) and broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 81.47 versus 81.42 early Monday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.45 and the second target at 102.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.40. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 101.95.

Resistance levels:

102.45

102.75

103

Support levels:

101.40

101.15

100.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the broadly firmer dollar undertone , dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and reduced safe-haven appeal of CHF as geopolitical tensions subside in Ukraine and Middle East. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9115 and the second target at 0.9135. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9050. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9030. The pivot point is at 0.9065.

Resistance levels:

0.9115

0.9135

0.9155



Support levels:

0.9050

0.9030

0.9010

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak dairy prices and reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year, official stance against strong Kiwi exchange rate and broadly firmer dollar undertone. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive investor risk sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8395. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8375. The pivot point stands at 0.8460. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8485 and the second target at 0.8505.

Resistance levels:

0.8485

0.8505

0.8530

Support levels:

0.8395

0.8375

0.8350

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 12/08/2014 14:50 CET

The alternate count of the yesterday's count for a triangle has been abandoned and now the wave progression looks more like a proper abc green irregular flat wave 4. However, the wave development might turn to be a larger scale triangle, but for now the market gives us no clear clues that this might happen soon. Anyway, the first target levels has been marked on the chart: the first one is intraday support at the level of 1.0904 and second one is another support and key level at the level of 1.0875. Those levels are the most probable zones for the whole corrective cycle completion and bullish rebound.

Support/Resistance:

1.1011 - WR1

1.0957 - Weekly Pivot

1.0928 - WS1

1.0904 - Intraday Support

1.0875 - WS2 | Wave 4 Red Target Level |

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders might consider to open long positions from the level of 1.0904 or the level of 1.0875, with the SL below the level of 1.0849 and TP above the level of 1.1010.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 12/08/2014 14:30 CET

The anticipated top for wave a as one upside leg of the correction has topped at the level of 137.11. Now, green wave b of the corrective cycle is unfolding. There are two possible target levels, marked on the chart as orange rectangles. The first target is at the level of 136.35 and the second one at the level of 136.21. Any breakout below this level would possibly lead to a test of the recent swing low at the level of 135.71. On the other hand, first confirmation of the last green wave c to the upside comes with the golden trendline and weekly pivot level bullish breakout.

Support/Resistance:

135.71 - Swing Low

135.80 - WS1

136.21 - Target Level #2

136.55 - Target Level #2 |Intraday Support|

136.58 - Intraday Support

136.85 - Weekly Pivot

137.55 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening long positions from the current price levels or from the level of 136.21, with SL below the level of 135.71 and TP at the level of 137.33.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Breakdown of the DEMAND level around 1.6975 allowed a quick decline of the GBP/USD pair towards the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820.

When retesting the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820, considerable bullish recovery took place. This bullish movement was stopped below 1.6880 when the bears applied considerable bearish pressure.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair declined again towards 1.6770. This came after the release of the British manufacturing data, which came below expectations.

In case the bears keep applying bearish pressure, we expect the pair to break-down the price level of 1.6760 (the previously broken top established in February 2014 ).

On the other hand, failure of the bears to fixate below 1.6760 will probably allow the bulls to initiate a bullish corrective movement towards 1.6820 and 1.6900 as well.

A pattern of multiple tops was confirmed after breakdown of the depicted bullish channel when the price zone between 1.7140 - 1.7170 provided evident bearish price action.

The price zone of 1.6830 - 1.6800 remains a significant zone as it corresponds to a previous consolidation zone established in June as well as the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel.

However, 4H fixation below this zone exposes the price levels around 1.6760 and 1.6730 to be hit shortly after.

Note that the GBP/USD pair has been down-trending for almost 20 days without significant correction.

Thus, any bullish fixation above 1.6820 invalidates the current steep trend allowing a deeper bullish retracement to occur.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The USD/CHF pair is going to set strong resistance at the level of 0.8866 and support at 0.9125. Equally important, the price is still moving between 0.9100 and 0.9066. Also, the USD/CHF pair has still been below 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels since January 13, 2014. As a result, the price has already formed the strong resistance at the level of 0.9125 and it is now approaching it in order to test it again. Therefore, the Swissy will get a downside convincing momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. It indicates a bearish opportunity below the 0.9125 level. So, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.9125 with the first target of 0.9040 (this level coincides with the daily pivot point) and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish move towards 0.8950 in the coming days. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account. Thus, it will be wise to set your stop loss at the price of 0.9155.

Intraday technical levels :

Date:12/08/2014

Pair:USD/CHF

• R3: 0.9148


• R2: 0.9125


• R1: 0.9109


• PP: 0.9086


• S1: 0.9070


• S2: 0.9047


• S3: 0.9031

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• The EUR/USD pair is in the short term.


• The price of the EUR/USD pair is going to turn to bearish from the level of 1.3366. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.3369 represents the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below 1.3366 with the first target of 1.3331 to test the double bottom at this price. Then, it will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.3290 (the weekly support 1). At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above the weekly pivot point at the price of 1.3390. Equally important, the support will set at the 1.3403 level.

Comments :

• Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 60 pips.


• The stop loss has set in 60 pips. Hence, the risk of 60 pips should make profit of 90 pips.


• Volatility: 108.59 today.


• As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5965

R2: 1.5920

R1: 1.5890

Current spot: 1.5889

S1: 1.5876

S2: 1.5866

S3: 1.5857

Technical summary:

Now, we have a nice five wave rally of the 1.5398 low. The triangle we described yesterday has unfolded perfectly and should provide a rally to 1.5920 and maybe 1.5964. Once this final wave v is in place, we will see a correction towards 1.5598 in wave 2. The fact that we have a five wave rally of the 1.5398 low tells us, that we should expect a new impulsive rally once the correction in wave 2 is over. For now, look for 1.5920, with an outside chance of 1.5964 before wave v and 1 is in place.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5710 and will move our stop higher to 1.5830 and place take profit+reverse at 1.5910. If we have done at 1.5910, we will place our new stop at 1.6010.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.06

R2: 136.88

S1: 136.75

Current spot: 136.70

S1: 1.3663

S2: 136.50

S3: 136.24

Technical summary:

We are still looking for the correction in wave iv to unfold closer to resistance at 138.00. However in the short term, we do see the possibility for a minor reaction lower to 136.24 before the next part of the correction taking us closer to resistance near 138.00 to end wave iv. Once wave iv is in place close to 138.00, we should expect the final decline towards 134.34, where wave C will equal wave A in length.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR buying opportunity at 136.30 with a stop at 135.70 and take profit will be place at 137.75 if our order is filled.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 12, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index despite my belief that the top could be in, shows important signs of strength that we should not ignore. Price has held above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart as shown below. Price is now trending upwards and remains inside the upward sloping channel.

The decline from the latest highs consists of 3 waves down. This means that the decline was corrective and the upward move is not over yet. There is an evident chance, we will see a new high towards 81.85 or even 82. Short-term support is found at 81.50 and short-term resistance at 81.65-81.70.

Yesterday, I mentioned in my analysis how important was the upward sloping channel in the daily chart as shown above. Price did not break the support level of 81.35 and has been held inside the upward sloping channel. This was a bullish sign that a new high is possible. No sell signal was given as no support level was broken. The trend remains up in the daily chart and a new upward move started yesterday. We could even reach 82 or higher very soon. Important support level that should hold for this scenario to come true is the price level at 81.40. Holding above 81.40 is crucial for the bullish scenario.

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Short term forecast and intra week recommendations of GBP/USD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been making lower lows and lower high for 6 weeks. Currently in Asia's session, the pair is trading at a 6-week low. The cable has parallel support at 1.6739 and 1.6699. A break below 1.6699 will lead to 1.666 and 1.6540 in the short term. Until the pair closes below 1.6875, sell on an up move. So, we will raise profit in the short term with a downside target of 1.666 and 1.6550. For the month of August, the support levels existed at 1.6699 breaks below this. It will lead to another fall to the short-term strong support levels between 1.6653 and 1.6640.

Resistance 1.6890 1.6938 1.6980

Support 1.6739 1.6699 1.6650

Intraweek -

The price is closing below the key hourly moving averages. Until the price closes below 1.6826, selling on an upward move will be quite gainful.

Resistance 1.677, 1.6802, and 1.6826.

Support 1.6739, 1.6723, and 1.67.

Buy only above 1.6825, until then sell on an up move.

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Gold Wave analysis for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Gold price remains supported by the short-term 38% Fibonacci retracement. The bullish scenario for a visit towards $1,350 is still valid. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and has paused the decline from $1,322 at the 38% retracement. Any upward bounce should break above $1,322 in order to complete the correction. Any rejection near $1,320 could bring Gold price back towards $1,300.

Gold price could make a pull back towards the 61.8% retracement that is found at $1,295. This coincides with the Ichimoku cloud support. The rise from $1,280 is impulsive. This means that at least one more sequence of 5 waves up should follow that will give a higher high above $1,322.

The daily chart remains bullish. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud support found at $1,300. Price is expected to move sideways for a maximum 2 days and then make a new upward move towards at least $1,330. My main target is $1,350 for the end of wave c of E of 4. Any break below $1,280 is a bearish sign and a stop for bulls.

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Short term forecast of USD/CAD for August 12, 2014 Trend News

Short term view-

The pair made a high at 1.0986, parallel resistance at 1.0989 rejected there last week. This week, the pair was unable to break the previous high and again looking to get support at the 1.09 levels. In Asia's session, the pair is trading at the 1.0938 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at the 1.09 and 1.0872 levels. We recommend buying above 1.0990 only. Or if a dip comes, traders can buy between 1.0910-1.09 with sl at 1.08720. A day closure comes below 1.08720. We expect the correction to take the pair towards 1.0797 and 1.077. This study is based on the weekly chart which suits the positional short-term players.

Support 1.0920 1.09 1.0872

Resistance 1.0973 1.0990 1.1025

A day closure below 1.0870, the short-term trend turns to negative.

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