Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was established during February and March.

The full projection target was hit at 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci) after the bears managed to fixate below 1.6600 (reversal pattern neckline).

The recent lows at 1.6465 as well as 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The daily chart shows a bullish breakout trial being expressed above 1.6800-1.6850. The bullish momentum should be apparent now to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Otherwise, failure may occur.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6820 It's the most recently established top and the upper limit of the consolidation zone. Bulls should be concentrated around this level to prevent further decline of the pair.

As long as the ascending bottom established at the uptrend around 1.6555 remaining intact, the market will keep up its bullish momentum.

The pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel for a couple of weeks now. Today, a bearish impulse was initiated off 1.6910.

The bearish momentum was contained above 1.6820 (the lower limit of the depicted channel).

A bullish impulse is now taking place to retest the low of yesterday's candlestick around 1.6870.

Bearish fixation below 1.6870 is necessary to maintain the bearish tendency of the market. Otherwise, bullish destination will be located at 1.6950 aiming for a new high.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish "Doji" indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support until today.

At the same time, several bullish attempts (including Tuesday's bullish spike) took place to step above 1.3850-1.3880. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

On the other hand, price level of 1.3800 has been providing bullish support so far. Wednesday's daily candlestick is another bullish engulfing daily candlestick that originated off this level.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

For the bulls, price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone which provided a valid BUY entry previously. It corresponds to the lower limit of the ongoing consolidation range.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for early exit from the current bullish position in case significant bearish momentum is expressed. Stop loss for the bullish position should be advanced to 1.3770 to secure some profits.

Bullish breakout above 1.3880 opens the way for a bullish spike towards 1.3950 to take place shortly after.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 2, 2014 Trend News

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. The bears took an advantage and pushed the pair towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart).

The USD/CAD pair returned to test the previous support zone around 1.0900 (50% Fibonacci level) which previously provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19.

Temporary daily closure below 1.0920 took place. However, it didn't take long time to get a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction on the next day pushed the pair again towards 1.1000.

On the other hand, on the 4H chart, the price zone of 1.0995-1.1045 (38.2% Fibonacci of the most recent bearish swing) was expected to provide a valid sell entry and it did.

The recent bearish spike that broke down 38.2% Fibonacci level to the upside, invalidated the bullish pressure which was being applied on 1.1000 for quite a long time.

The previously suggested bearish position is now running in profits. Stop loss should be lowered to 1.1020. The next TP level should be located at 1.0920 then 1.0880.

Price level 1.1020 remains the nearest resistance level for the pair. Any breakout above 1.1045 will invalidate the bearish tendency for the pair temporarily.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 2, 2014 Trend News

On March 24, by breaking down 1.5175, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but it also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 (61.8% Fibonacci).

As expected, trading above 1.4740 on a daily basis hindered further bearish progression giving some time for a sideway consolidation for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci).

The state of indecision around 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.4750) was ended. The bulls initiated a bullish spike off 1.4725 and finally they were able to push above the upper limit of the 4H congestion zone.

A bullish spike above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) was executed on Tuesday. However, the bulls failed to pursue the bullish breakout leading to its failure.

On the other hand, the lower limit of the depicted triangle located around 1.4850 prevented a further bearish decline, providing a considerable support for the pair for retesting of the price zone of 1.4950-1.5000 again allowing another bullish breakout above 1.5000 to take place.

The 4H chart shows an expanding triangle pattern being established at the current key levels. This is a bearish signal and an indicator for upcoming bearish pressure to be applied.

Overall, the daily chart suggests bearish tendency especially if the current daily candlestick manages to close below 1.4940.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Overview

According to today's 4H chart, closing below the resistance level of 173.50 gave the price an opportunity to make a bearish move after it has failed to break it through. As shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move and is approaching support level of 172.80. In this case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals which will open the way towards 172.00 as the first target. Then the price should test the support level first to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level 172.80, this cancels the first scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.40), R2 (174.00), R1 (173.50), S1 (172.80), S2 (172.00), S3 (171.50).

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GOLD analysis for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,277.11 on volume below the average according to the daily chart. As we already posted in the previous analysis, we got submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,307.00 and that level held successfully. We can observe weak demand on volume below the average according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Our first support level at the price of 1,277.00 got tested and if the price breaks the level of 1,277.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,267.00 (previous swing low). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,307.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,315.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,290.19

R2: 1,293.65

R3: 1,299.27

Support levels:

S1: 1,278.95

S2: 1,275.49

S3: 1,269.87

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. April non-farm payrolls (expected to have increased by 215,000) and unemployment rate (expected to have slipped to 6.6% from 6.7%). No strong cue for yen-funded carry trades from Wall Street as the U.S. stocks finished near the flat line overnight (S&P 500 slipped 0.01%) as caution prevailed before Friday's payrolls report and U.S. data were mixed, larger-than-expected 0.9% on-month increase in U.S. March personal spending (versus +0.6% forecast), 0.5% increase in personal income (versus +0.4% forecast) and stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 54.9 in April from 53.7 in March (versus 54.3 forecast) were offset by the surprise 14,000 increase in U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 26 to 344,000 (versus forecast for drop to 320,000), weaker-than-expected 0.2% increase in U.S. March construction spending (versus +0.5% forecast) and drop in final Markit U.S. April manufacturing PMI to 55.4 from 55.5 in March. USD/JPY is weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the demand from Japan importers and positions adjustment before Japan's long weekend (financial markets in Japan are closed for holiday on Monday and Tuesday).

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but MACD is still in bullish mode, while five-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 101.90 and the second target at 101.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.90. The pivot point is at 102.20.

Resistance levels:

102.75

102.90

103.20

Support levels:

101.90

101.70

101.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF is undermined by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day MA.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8765. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8730. The pivot point stands at 0.8810. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8825 and the second target at 0.8845.

Resistance levels:

08825

0.8845

0.8860

Support levels:

0.8765

0.8730

0.87

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for MAY02, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. NZD/USD is supported by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the concerns over China's economy, weaker commodity prices and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8665 and the second target at 0.8690. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8570. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.854. The pivot point is at 0.8600.

Resistance levels:

0.8665

0.8690

0.8725

Support levels:

0.8570

0.854

0.85

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

The weekly pivot point: 1.3824

Overview :

• As expected, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 1.3892 because the resistance has already set at the level of 1.3892 and the double top was also placed near the resistance at 1.3887. Accordingly, it will a good sign to sell in this area with the first target of 1.3843 to test a minor support at this price which represents the the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in H1 chart. Also, if the trend will be able to break 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, it calls for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.3824. The weekly pivot point of EUR/USD pair this week has set at 1.3824. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 1.3923. Equally important, it should also be noted that the support will set at the 1.3824 level today.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

Overrview :

• The first key level of GBP/USD pair will set at the level of 1.6875 and the second key level will set at the 1.6840 level today (on April 2, 2014). Moreover, it should be noted that the level of 1.6920 is representing the resistance and the double top at the same price. Additionally, the 1.6840 level is going to act as the support in H1 chart. Equally important, the price of the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.6880 and 1.6860. Another thought, it should be noted that the range was about 55 pips yesterday.


• Furthermore, the trend was very clear and indicating downtrend from the double top at the level of 1.6920. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.66920. As a result, sell at the price of 1.6920 with the first target of 1.6870, it might resume to 1.6835 in order to test the weekly support.


• On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.6920 level. Thereupon, it will be helpful to set it at the price of 1.6953 today.

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As shown in the today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing between the Support level of 18.90 and the Resistance level of 19.20 after its failure to break the Support level of 18.70 yesterday. Currently, we must wait for re-testing the Support level of 18.90 again and closing below to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case we will get a good opportunity to sell below the Support level till testing the next Support level of 18.70. Therefore, we can consider our first target few pips above this Support level, but as long as the price is still above the Support level of 18.90 this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.75), R2 (19.50), R1 (19.20), S1 (18.90), S2 (18.70), S3 (18.20)

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#USDX Technical analysis for May 2, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has bounced today off its low at 79.40 just above the critical support of 79.20. We said in our previous analysis that the lows would be challenged. This is what happened and what we expected when 79.50 was broken. Bulls are showing signs of strength. The bounce is such a sign. But we are far from confirming a trend reversal.

The trend remains downward. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Short-term resistance is found at 79.70 and 79.85. Short-term and long-term support is the same at 79-79.20. Bulls need to react now. Price is above critical support and bulls will not give up without a fight. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls number announced will give us a good indication if the index is reversing its trend or it is going lower.

The daily chart continues to support that the trend is downward. Price is below both the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance trend line. However support at 79.20 is very important and I cannot rule out a trend reversal from current levels. However our preferred stance remains bearish as long as price remains below 80 and 80.60. Short-term traders are preferred to stay neutral or bullish with 79.20 as stop. Longer-term traders with short positions should prefer lowering their stops to 80.

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Gold technical analysis for May 2, 2014 Trend News

Gold price remains weak. It continues to slide lower towards important daily support of $1,275 and towards intraday support of $1,268. Gold price remains below the red downward sloping trend line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud.

The trend remains downward. If Gold price does not break above $1,300, we should expect the price to break recent lows and move towards $1,250 or even $1,200. So we prefer short positions with $1,300 stop reverse. If resistance at $1,300 is broken, we should expect the recent highs at $1,331 to be challenged.

The daily chart above shows that price is holding above support for now, but it is getting really close to breaking below it and opening the road towards $1,200. If support holds, we should expect a bounce towards $1,310 at least.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 2, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.72

R2: 142.47

R1: 142.14

Current spot: 141.97

S1: 141.75

S2: 141.42

S3: 141.12

Technical summary:

We have been trading in a tight range for the last couple of days. Ideally resistance at 142.14 will protect the upside for a break below minor support at 141.75, and more importantly, a break below support at 141.42, that will confirm a new test of important support at 140.99. Only a break below here will add real downside pressure towards 140.08 and lower towards 136.55. However, if resistance at 142.14 is broken, a new rally towards 142.47 and likely even slightly higher towards 142.72 will be seen before the next downside pressure should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 141.68 with stop placed at 142.50.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver prints yet another low below $18.90 yesterday before pulling back to $19.00 near close. The metal still holds sub $18.00 levels and a bullish revival still remains probable. Furthermore, divergence is also seen on smaller time frames. At least $19.90/20.00 levels need to break on the higher side to confirm a pullback or bullish reversal.

2. Support is at sub $18.00 levels, while resistance is seen at $19.90, followed by $20.40, $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver could recover on higher side till $18.00 levels remain intact. However, a break there could prove to be extremely bearish and drag prices towards $17.00 and $16.00 levels as well.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now OR aggressive trade setup is to remain long, stop is at $18.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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