Daily analysis of USDX for April 04, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains strong in the current bullish bias above the support level of 80.11, so it is very likely that the USDX rises to the resistance level of 80.62, where the 200-day moving average is located. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 81.50. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is trying to form a lower high pattern above the 80.44 level. If the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.58, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.32. Furthermore, if USDX is able to consolidate below the support level of 80.35, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.15. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has made a breakout at the level of 80.35, so it is very likely that the USDX will rise to resistance level of 80.59. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.73. The USDX remains above the 200 SMA and MACD is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.59, take profit is at 80.73, and stop loss is at 80.44.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 04, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD continues to fall below the resistance level of 1.6663. Now, it is very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6540, which is set slightly bullish trend line. If GBP/USD manages to consolidate below this level, it would be expected to strengthen the bearish bias. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H4 chart: This pair continues to seek support on the 200 SMA and the support level of 1.6583. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6516. On the other hand, if the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6592, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6644. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The GBPUSD has consolidated below the 200 SMA with the formation of a bearish pattern. If the pair manages to make a breakout in the support level of 1.6578, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6544. On the other hand, you should wait for a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6629 to continue placing buy orders. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6612.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Factory Orders m/m, Retail PMI.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-Non-Farm Employment Change, US-Unemployment Rate, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3789.

Strong Resistance:1.3780.

Original Resistance: 1.3767.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3754.

Target Inner Area: 1.3721.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3688.

Original Support: 1.3675.

Strong Support: 1.3662.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3653.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3675 and 1.3767. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3662 and by 1.3780 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3653 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3789 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3688 and at 1.3754, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3721.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 04, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data and the US will release some economic data such as US-Non-Farm Employment Change, US-Unemployment Rate. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 104.39.

Resistance. 2: 104.18.

Resistance. 1: 103.98.

Support. 1: 103.73.

Support. 2: 103.53.

Support. 3: 103.32

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (103.32) and resistance 3 (104.39). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2014 Trend News

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the bank was ready to take further steps to counter low inflation. The ECB is concerned about continued low inflation after consumer prices held below 1 percent for a sixth month in March.Tonight, all eyes will be on the US employment data which is expected to show payrolls growth by 200,000 in March after a gain of 175,000 in February. The ECB's President Mario said Thursday that the Governing Council is already leaving its worst fears that the European economy would see “protracted stagnation,” as unemployment across the euro zone remains high.

Technical view

EUR/USD is trading at 1.3723 in Asia's trading session. The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.3967 levels travelling towards to the lower levels by breaking all the short-term moving averages. On the down side, the support levels exist at 1.364, a break below this will push the price to 1.3548 and 1.3477 levels. On the up side, 1.37764 is the strong resistance (intraday). If the pair crosses this level, short covering will take place and the pair will push to 1.3810 levels. The downfall is limited due to oversold RSI levels in the H4 chart. For positional basis, traders can go short with sl 1.3735 on a closing basis for targets at 1.3640, 1.3548, and 1.3477 levels. A day close above the 50SMA (red line) of 1.3735 will show us an up move to 1.3763, 1.3781, and 1.3820 levels.

Intraday- 1.3735 above only safe for longs

For intraday purpose, the pair is facing stiff resistance level at 50&200MA levels, noted as R1. Until the pair crosses the R1, we can't see up move. Only above the R1, the pair can travel up to R2 (1.3820), above this, R3 is 1.3876. On the down side, If the pair breaks the 1.3794 level, it will drift towards 1.365 and 1.3642 levels immediately. I expect "limited" from the current levels at 1.3722.

Recommendations-

Traders who favor the euro can buy with sl 1.3694 for targets 1.3735, 1.3777, and 1.38 (intraday).

For bears - sell below 1.3694 for targets 1.365 and 1.3642.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 04, 2014 Trend News

Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a surplus in February, with rising exports of autos and energy outpacing record imports.The surplus of $290 million exceeded the $200 million surplus that was the median of 17 predictions in a Bloomberg survey. January’s deficit was revised to $337 million from an initially reported $177 million, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

In the currency view, Canadian's exporters may benefit this year from a weaker currency and quicker economic growth in the U.S. Three-quarters of Canada’s exports were shipped to the U.S. in 2013, while the currency weakened 6.4% over the last six months.

USD/CAD has been in a consolidation phase waiting for a direction. The level of 1.1 looks like a key level between bulls and bears. It has been hovering at 1.1 levels for last 7 trading sessions in the daily chart. On the down side, if the pair breaks and closes below the 1.1 level, it will drift all the way to 1.0955, 1.0910 and 1.0810 with sl 1.1078 (March 28 high). On the up side, if the pair holds the 1.1 in today's trading session (cb), it will fly up to 1.108. Closing above it will cause a new bull run towards the higher levels.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, RSI favors buy side. Traders can enter fresh longs only above the level of 1.1045 with targets at 1.1056, 1.1075 immediately. Above this, 1.11 and 1.1170 levels will be possible. Sellers can short only below 1.1 levels for targets at 1.0955 and 1.0910 levels.

joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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Fundamental analysis of Gold for April 04, 2014 Trend News

The big monthly US jobs report will be released today. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The government's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show non-farm payrolls increase of 200,000 jobs last month after rising by 175,000 in February. The Shangai Gold exchange is down 0.48%. The metal came under pressure after the US dollar gained strength. The market participants reveal that the general sentiment towards gold is quite subdued right now," UBS analyst Edel Tully said.

Technical view-

In yesterday's trade gold drifted to its 7-week low, but held the previous support level at $1,277.0. For positional traders, one can enter fresh shorts once gold closes below $1,279 for targets at $1,270, $1,275, $1,265, and $1,261 levels. Or in another view, due to oversold levels in hourly chart once the price moves higher towards $1,306-$1,307 levels, one can enter shorts with small sl $1,308 on a closing basis. On the higher side, the levels of $1,298 and $1,397 are the supply zone. A day close above the $1,307 level (50SMA), the metal will move upwards to $1,317, $1,320, and $1,327. The metal will get positive waves only after a day close above the $1,342 levels. Until that, any rise is a selling opportunity. Sellers will get a shorting opportunity below $1,279 or higher levels $1,295, $1,298, and $1,307 levels.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, the metal is facing stiff resistance between $1,287.20-$1,288.60 levels. Buyers can enter longs only above the level of $1,288.6 for $1,294. Above this, $1,298 will be possible for intraday session. Today, if the pair is unable to cross the $1,294 level, the gates are open for lower targets at $1,277, below this, $1,270 and $1,272 (intraday). Sellers can enter fresh short positions at higher levels at $1,294 or $1,298 or below $1,281 for targets at $1,277.

Recommendations- cmp $1,284.80

Safe traders-

Sell below $1,281 for targets at $1,277; below this, $1,275 and $1,272.

Buy above $1,289 with targets at $1,294 and $1,298.

Risky trades-

Buy with sl $1,277 for targets at $1,288, $1,294, and $1,298 (above $1,289 only, next targets will come).

Sell below $1,277 for targets $1,270, $1,265, and $1,261.

Please adopt one strategy and trade safely.

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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD for April 04, 2014 Trend News

Growth in the British services sector moderated for a fifth straight month in March, but remained strong enough to support expectations that gross domestic product growth should hit around 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2014. The data showed, Services PMI slipped to 57.6 in March. That was the lowest level since June 2013, much weaker than the expected increase of 58.5, and down from February's 58.2. The slowdown was due to slower growth across the sector -- new business growth slid to 58.5 from February's 59.2, while employment fell to 53.5 in March from 55.6, and business expectations hit a four-month-low of 72.8 in March, down from 74.7 a month earlier.

Technical view-

In the Asia's trading session, GBP/USD is taking support at the 50SMA level of 1.6587. The pair erases 50% of its gains from the 1.6465 levels. A day close below this level will push the pair to 1.6550 and 1.65 levels immediately. March 24 low at 1.6465 is the last hope for the bulls. For the long run perspective, the pair is in an uptrend with small corrections from 1.5854 levels. A day close below the 1.6465 level will terminate the uptrend pattern, and the pair will fall to 1.63, 1.6252 and 1.6211 levels. On the upside, if the pair trades above the 1.6603 level, it will fly up to 1.6666 and 1.6684 levels. Whereas the level of 1.6718 is the strong resistance levels for bulls. Once the pair breaks it, the levels of 1.6786 and 1.6823 will be on the chart.

For positional trades, a day close below the level of 1.6584, bear bells will ring up to the level of 1.6465 levels.

Intraday-

The pair is trading in a complete bearish zone. As of now, the pair is trading at 1.6590. On the up side, the pair is facing strong resistance levels between 1.6595-1.66. Above this, 1.6611 is the strong resistance levels. RSI is also in the down trend. Until a candle close above the 1.6611 level, bears will take the pair towards 1.655 and 1.65 on an intraday. On the up side, if the pair trades above the 1.6611 level, it will jump to 1.6646 and 1.6666 levels.

Intraday-

Sell with sl 1.6611 for targets 1.655 and 1.65.

Buy above 1.6611 for targets 1.6646 and 1.666.

joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• It should be noted that the first key level will set at the level of 1.6585 and the second key level will set at the 1.6650 level on April 4, 2014. Also, it should be noticed that the levels are coinciding with the weekly pivot point and the double top respectively. Equally important, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6570 and 1.6613. Furthermore, the trend has been very clear indicating downward direction.


• As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.6650 in H1 chart. As a result, sell at the price of 1.6650 with the first target of 1.6585 in order to test the weekly pivot point and it might resume to 1.6520. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.6650, hence it will helpful to set it at the price of 1.6683. Additionally, it should be noted that the range was about 91 pips yesterday.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• As expected, the USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.1100, and showed signs of strength after it. Additionally, the resistance was broken and turned to support at the same key level (1.1100). Equally important, the price has set above the support since March 28, 2014. Consequently, the pair has already formed the strong support at 1.1100 and it should also be noted that the tripple bottom is going to set around this area. Furthermore, the price has still been trapped between 1.1110 and 1.1185. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of bullish market, so the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1100 with the first target of 1.1180, and continues towards the level of 1.1140 again.

• On the other hand, the stop loss should always be in account, thence it will of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the 1.1070 price.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-month high at 103.93 on Wednesday.It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.21 versus 80.06 early Wednesday) as encouraging U.S. March ADP national employment report on private-sector jobs (increased by 191,000 versus +200,000 expected); bolstered expectations of upbeat U.S. nonfarm jobs data due Friday; while U.S. February factory orders rose stronger-than-expected 1.6% (versus +1.2% forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts, positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 0.08% to 13.09, S&P hit record high 1,893.17 before closing up 0.29% at 1,890.9 overnight) on sanguine U.S. data and recent dovish comments from Fed's Chairwoman Yellen. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exports and profit-taking on short-yen positions as investors trim risk exposure before Friday's U.S. nonfarm jobs report.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 104.10 and the second target at 104.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.95. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.65. The pivot point is at 103.40.

Resistance levels:

104.10

104.45

104.80

Support levels:

102.95

102.65

102.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, dovish monetary policy Swiss National Bank's, and franc sales on the buoyant EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics is reverting to bullish mode near overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8940 and the second target at 0.8960. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8850. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8835. The pivot point is at 0.8875.

Resistance levels:

0.8940

0.8960

0.8995

Support levels:

0.8850

0.8835

0.8785

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by soft EUR/USD undertone and the Japanese exports sales. But EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the positive risk appetite, demand from the Japanese importers and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD stochastics are in bullish mode, 5-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 171.65. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 170.90. The pivot point stands at 173.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.60 and the second target at 174.20.

Resistance levels:

173.60

174.20

174.50

Support levels:

171.65

170.90

170.30

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Around price levels of 1.6780, a Double Top pattern scenario was executed with the neckline located around the price zone of 1.6620-1.6660.

Daily fixation below this price zone enabled the pair to reach 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci) as a projection target.

The recently achieved low at 1.6465 (also corresponding to a previous uptrend line) prevented further decline. Yet, the bulls were unable to fix above 1.6630-1.6666 (prominent top established on January 24).

A slide below 1.6580 (previous bottom established on January 24) applies bearish pressure on the pair to pursue towards lower lows around 1.6510 and 1.6470. Otherwise, the bulls would be targeting at 1.6750-1.6775.

As suggested, the price zone of 1.6666-1.6690 offered a valid sell entry. Stop loss should be four-hour closure above 1.6700.

The bears need to achieve a four-hour closure below 1.6600 to push for further lows. However, until now there's no bullish support being offered there.

On the other hand, four-hour fixation above 1.6690 will probably signal weakness of the bears to pursue their downtrend exposing price level of 1.6775 for retesting.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross amd drop in dairy prices to their lowest level in 13 months in the internet-based auction held April 1 on GlobalDairyTrade. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive risk appetite and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance; hopes of further stimulus in China. Daily chart i9s negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8510. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8480. The pivot point stands at 0.8580. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8610 and the second target at 0.8630.

Resistance levels:

0.8610

0.8635

0.8660

Support levels:

0.8510

0.8480

0.8440

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Daily fixation below 1.3870 gathered enough bearish pressure to push towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700-1.3730.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair established a new supply level at 1.3845. It rejected the bulls on March 24 strongly so any further visits should be considered for selling.

At the end of the previous week, there has been an intraday demand level expressed at 1.3700 which paused the recent slide off 1.3965.

The price level of 1.3820 corresponds to previous significant tops. Bearish rejection was expressed within yesterday's candlestick. That's why, moving below 1.3820 applies continuous bearish pressure on 1.3700 to get broken this time and vice is verse.

The price zone of 1.3830-1.3850 remains a significant supply zone. It provided a valid sell entry at the previous retesting on March 24.

On the other hand, as expected, failure to fix above 1.3790 exposed the recent low established at 1.3700 to be retested again.

Four-hour candlestick fixation below which opens the way towards lower lows to be visited at 1.3640 and 1.3580.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Since February 4, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving sideways with a slightly bullish tendency. This movement was maintained above the depicted uptrend line.

On March 12, the bulls failed to establish an ascending top. Instead, a double-top reversal pattern was established at 1.5500. The neckline was located at 1.5200-1.5170.

Success of the Double Top pattern not only achieved its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern as well.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest Support level). This exposes price level of 1.4750 ( 61.8% Fibonacci ) to be tested shortly after.

On Friday, the pair dipped at 1.4785 when bullish recovery took place to push again towards 1.4950-1.4990 (also previous prominent bottom is located there).

Price zone of 1.4950-1.4990 should keep price below in order to pursue the ongoing bearish momentum. Otherwise, sideway consolidations may be prolonged.

On the long-term prospective, projection targets of the H&S reversal pattern are projected towards 1.4350 roughly.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Previous congestion zone around 1.0900 provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19. This led again towards 1.1190 where the USD/CAD pair established a consolidation zone between 1.0960 and 1.1190.

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls didn't apply enough bullish momentum above 1.1200. As expected, this exposed price zone of 1.1000-1.1020 as a sign of bearish domination.

In case the current support doesn't hold price above, the next support zone to meet the pair is located at 1.0920-1.0840 which comes to meet significant Fibonacci levels of the recent bullish swing.

It's expected to provide a considerable bullish pressure.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1130-1.1150 is expected to provide a considerable resistance as well. This price zone corresponds to the previous tops established on March 12, February 21, and January 30. Any further visiting will probably offer a valid sell entry with stop loss located just above 1.1185.

The pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.1000 and 1.1150 within the depicted triangle until breakout takes place in either direction.

Bearish breakout is more likely to occur.

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 03, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.6158 on average volume. According to the daily chart, we can observe demand bar on volume just below the average, which is a sign that we started larger bullish correction. Our levels of 1.5940 and 1.6050 are broken and the next major resistance on this pair may be at the level of 1.6200-1.6230 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, previous swing low area). Price rejected from our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% level at the price of 1.5810 and that caused price to start bullish correction. According to the 30 min. timeframe we found bullish (abcd) corrective form and price currently testing our Fibonacci extension 161.8% at the price of 1.6160, se be careful with buying EUR/NZD at this stage. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6097

R2: 1.6130

R3: 1.6185

Support levels:

S1: 1.5988

S2 : 1.5955

S3: 1.5901

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 3, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 03/04/2014 11:15 CET

The range bound market is still present is this pair as the market participant are waiting for ECB news release later tothe day. Please notice that price is below the golden trendline and candlestick wick from the upside are growing longer, indicating a building supply in the upper side of the range area at the level of 143.20. Only a clear and sustained breakout above this level would confirm more upside wave progression into a fully blown impulsive structure. On the other hand, the first top confirmation comes with the level of 142.60 breakout to the downside and in that case more weakness would be expected.

Support/Resistance:

143.79 - Technical Resistance

143.20 - Intraday Resistance

143.12 - WR2

142.71 - Intraday Support

142.47 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

-for a downside breakout - Sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 142.71 with SL above the level of 143.20 and TP at the level of 142.59 and 142.47.

-for an upside breakout - Buy stop orders should be opened from the level of 143.21 with SL below the level of 142.71 and TP at the level of 143.78

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6326

R2: 1.6275

R1: 1.6219

Current spot: 1.6137

S1: 1.6102

S2: 1.6063

S3: 1.6030

Technical summary:

The break above resistance at 1.6086 yesterday was very frustrating and forced a change of the large count. The new count shows that we are looking at a combination of corrections. The first correction was an expanded flat that ended 1.6073 in mid-September 2013. This first three wave correction was followed by an equal complex X-wave and we are currently in the later part of a zig-zag decline. This zig-zag has unfolded in wave A from 1.6996 to 1.6214 and was followed by yet another complex wave B to 1.6787, and we are currently in wave iv of the final C wave lower. This wave iv is expected to end close to resistance at 1.6219 the 50% corrective target of wave iii and should be followed by the final decline towards 1.5530.

Trading recommendation:

Sell EUR at 1.6175 with a stop at 1.6275 or sell upon a break below support at 1.6102 with a stop at 1.6170.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 144.41

R2: 143.79 - Important resistance

R1: 143.47

Current spot: 143.03

S1: 142.72

S2: 142.43

S3: 142.00

Technical summary:

As long as important resistance at 143.79 protects the upside, the above count will stay our preferred count. We will be looking for a break below minor support at 142.72 to add confidence in our preferred count, but only a break below important short-term support at 141.78 confirms that the rally of the 139.96 low was a wave ii correction and more downside pressure should be seen for a decline towards 139.96 and below for a move closer to 138.08 and possibly even lower towards 136.80.

Only a break above 143.79 invalidates our preferred count and calls for an alternate count, which shows that a flat or even an expanded flat correction is unfolding for a move higher to the former top at 145.69, before renewed downside pressure should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short from 142.35 with a stop at 143.80. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell after a break below 142.72 with the same stop at 143.80.

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#USDX technical analysis for April 3, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is once again challenging the resistance at 80.40. With ECB meeting today, we should expect the Dollar index to either break above 80.40 and continue higher towards 80.70-80 or get rejected once more and break lower towards 79.70.

For now, the trend is neutral. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, but with no clear impulsive direction. Short-term resistance at 80.40 and then at 80.70. Short-term support is at 80 and then at 79.70. The low at 79.20 is very important and should hold if bulls want to have any chance of survival.

The daily chart shows that the daily candlestick have reached the downward sloping trend line and the downward sloping Ichimoku cloud. This is important as today will be an important turning point. A rejection at current levels will probably put 79.20 in danger and will challenge it. If however the index manages to break higher above the resistance, we should expect a bigger trend change that could challenge 81 and 81.40.

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Gold technical analysis for April 3, 2014 Trend News

Gold price reversed upwards yesterday after breaking above the short-term downward sloping channel that started at $1,345. This might be a short-term upward bounce before a final new low towards $1,250-60. We will be more confident that this upward bounce is the big upward bounce we expect, if prices break above $1,300 and if Gold price makes a higher low than $1,275.

In the 1 hour chart, Gold price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and now we may see a back test on the Ichimoku cloud and a test of the 38% and 50% retracements. If this pull back makes a higher low and then reverses back up, we will have a short-term trend change confirmation. A move above $1,295 will also support bulls move higher. Short-term support is found at $1,285-80. Short-term resistance at $1,295-$1,300.

The 4-hour chart above shows how intermediate-term trend remains bearish. The first important resistance is found at $1,310 and then at $1,320. If $1,295-$1,300 is broken upwards, these are the two targets that I believe will be easily reached. All this assumes that we do not make a lower low. If we make a lower low, then the upward bounce targets will also change. For now, we have a weak buy signal after the break out we saw yesterday. Stop for bulls is $1,275 and confirmation above $1,295. Target to close any long position is $1,310-20. Long-term strategy remains the same. We plan on selling near $1,350 with $1,400 stop and $1,100 target.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 03, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair still need to present clarity over the next probable move. The 1.4800 level remains key for now. A break above, would confirm that prices ate targeting 1.4850 and 1.4960 at least. While a reversal from current levels, brings back bears into control. Recommendations are to remain short for now, risk is at 1.4800.

2. Resistance intermediary is seen at 1.4850/60, followed by 1.4960 and 1.5120 on the higher side, while supports are spread through 1.4450, followed by 1.4350 and lower respectively.

3. The structure needs further clarity to commit fresh positions at the moment. If this is a false break out, prices should come back again in the sell zone of resistance line below 1.4600 soon. On the other side a break above 1.4800, would signify that bulls remain in control.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, set stop at 1.4800 levels, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 03, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair seems to have hit resistance again at 143.50 levels. Please note that the triangle resistance is passing through the same level and also an engulfing bearish reversal has appeared. All these put together, the pair should be headed lower towards the triangle line of support at least. Recommendations are to remain short, risk is at 144.00.

2. Resistance is at 143.80/144.00, followed by 145.50, while support begin from 140.00, followed by 138.50/136.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure still remains constructive for bears till prices remain below the 144.00 mark. A bearish reversal here could be steep and fast enough towards 140.00 and lower. A break higher will be extremely bullish though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop at 144.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for April 03, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has been trading sideways, corrective wave [iv] (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of the pair above, we can see that the price is trading in the range 1.1077 - 1.1000 for the last couple of sessions, pattern that we are seeing on the chart starts to look as the Triangle, and if we are correct we should have one more push higher before the price turn lower in the [v] wave. Our strategy will stay unchanged, we are going to look to establish a selling position at the break below the lower trend line. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [v] should extend 123.6% of wave [iv], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [iv] with take profit at 1.0982 (123.6% of wave [iv]). Swing traders need to wait a new low to get reached before we try another long opportunity.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0967, (S2) 1.0985, (S1) 1.1009, (PP) 1.1027, (R1) 1.1051, (R2) 1.1069, (R3) 1.1093.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1010 with stop loss at 1.1050 and take profit at 1.0982 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 03, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold confirms bottom at $1,277.00 for now. A bullish reversal trading signal appears on the 8H chart view here. Recommendations are to remain long for now, risk remains at $1,270.00 for now. The metal should target at least $1,350.00 levels from here on. Also note that the reversal has come around 50% fibonacci support of the entire rally from $1,180.00 levels to $1,388.00 levels.

2. Intermediary trend line resistance is seen at $1,350.00, followed by $1,388.00, while support is seen at $1,240.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure remains constructive for bulls at the moment. We would watch out for a reaction at $1,350.00 levels though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, set stop at $1,270.00, target is at least at $1,350.00

Good luck!

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for April 03, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

For the last couple of days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, corrective wave [iv] wave (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that we have completed impulsive wave [iii] at the 0.9299 level and from there we can observe a double three pattern inside the [iv] wave. While the price remains above the 0.9130 level, the end of the [i] wave, we are going to look for a buying opportunity at the end of the [iv] wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [v] should retrace 61.8% of wave [iii], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [iii] with take profit at 0.9422 (61.8% of wave [iii] ). Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9185, (S2) 0.9204, (S1) 0.9225, (PP) 0.9244, (R1) 0.9265, (R2) 0.9284, (R3) 0.9305. Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9170 with stop loss at 0.9130 and take profit at 0.9422 are recommended.

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