USD
The US Dollar Index fell during the course of last week, but remained above the 79 level. The 79 level is of course is supportive, and we believe it is a major inflection point. We feel that this market will go to the 84 level, given enough time in order to see the bulls continuing to take control of a market that they’ve had a strong presence in. On top of that, you can also make an argument for consolidation between this area and the 81.25 level, as we have seen it in the last six months proved to be relatively tight. With that, we most certainly have an upward bias at this point, but recognize that a breakdown below the 79 level would in fact be very significant. On that move, we would expect this market to drop all the way down to the 77.83 and 75 levels, but it would take some time. The level of 78.60 would of course offer support as well, but it is much more of a minor area than the 79 is, as we continue to see the market bounce from its handle. If we break above the 81.25 level, we can see a new high this year.
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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Trade Balance, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Trade Balance. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Chair Yellen Speech, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.
