Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a six-year high at 109.75 on Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 7.61% to 15.98, S&P 500 slipped 0.25% overnight to close at 1,977.8) as pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong added to concerns over global economic outlook, while caution prevail ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY is downside limited by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan importers and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative out performance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0), as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.30. The pivot point stands at 109.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.05 and the second target at 108.80.
Resistance levels:
110
110.30
110.45
Support levels:
109.05
108.80
108.50
Fundamental Overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a 14-month high 0.9532 on Monday. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD/CHF is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies; stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0); as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.
Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9620 and the second target at 0.9650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9530.
Resistance levels:
0.9620
0.9650
0.9685
Support levels:
0.9485
0.9455
0.9415
Fundamental Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a 13-month low 0.7707 on Monday. Kiwi is hurt after Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed it has sold a net NZ$521 million in August versus just NZ$2 million in July, suggesting that the central bank had intervened to weaken the currency and Prime Minister John Key was reported as signaling that US$0.6500 would be a fair value for the Kiwi. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and waning investor risk appetite; Kiwi sales on cross trades versus major currencies.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7730. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.77. The pivot point stands at 0.7830. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7910 and the second target at 0.7955.
Resistance levels:
0.7910
0.7955
0.8035
Support levels:
0.7730
0.77
0.7675
Fundamental Overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment, reduced investor risk appetite; worse-than-expected drop in U.K. GfK consumer confidence index to -1.0 in September from +1.0 in August (versus forecast of 0.0). and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY downside move is limited by the demand from Japanese importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone and by the sterling demand on buoyant GBP/NZD cross as well as expectations of rate increase from Bank of England in early 2015.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.
Resistance levels:
179.15
179.90
180.35
Support levels:
176.75
175.80
175.30
Overview:
Our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6215 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6300 held successful, which is a sign that buying looks risky. According to the 4H time frame, EUR/NZD is in a bearish corrective phase. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6165 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5900. Anyway, to confirm further bullish movement, the price needs to break the level of 1.6300 in a high volume and with healthy price action.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6426
R2: 1.6506
R3: 1.6635
Support levels:
S1: 1.6169
S2: 1.6090
S3: 1.5961
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair, since we since we can observe bearish corrective phase
Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 1.6338
R2: 1.6309
R1: 1.6266
Current spot: 1.6247
S1: 1.6217
S2: 1.6190
S3: 1.6155
Technical summary:
The correction from the 1.6446 high has been deeper than expected and we could see a move slightly lower to 1.6190 and even 1.6155, but this support should be able to protect the downside for the next rally above 1.6337 confirming the next rally higher towards 1.6803 and higher. Longer term we are looking for much higher levels, but need to allow for this correction to unfold first.
Trading recommendation:
We are long in EUR from 1.5826 with stop place at 1.6100. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6190 with the same stop at 1.6100.
The Dollar index made a short-term pull back towards 85.50 as expected yesterday and did not break lower. The trend remains bullish as long as we trade above yesterday's lows and we should expect new highs. If support is broken a bigger downward correction will start.
Red line = resistance
Blue line= support
Green line = price channel
At 85.50 we find the important short-term support. If this support is broken we should expect the Dollar index to break lower towards 85. The trend is neutral in the 30-minute chart and we should wait for a breakout signal above 85.66 or below 85.47 before opening a position.
Green line = price channel
Red line = resistance
The longer-term trend remains fully bullish. According to the ichimoku cloud indicators trend remains fully bullish. Only if we see a change in the slope of the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen we should worrying for a bigger trend reversal. Important support is at 85.50 area. If broken, a deeper correction will start towards 85 or even 84.50. On the other hand, we could see one more new high at least if we break and close the day above 85.66.
Gold price remains unable to make a strong bounce. Although price remains above critical short-term support at $1,207, the sideways move will soon be over with more chances favoring the bearish scenario for a push lower towards $1,180. Short-term trend is neutral while intermediate- and long-term trend remain bearish.
Blue line= support
Green line = price channel
Gold price remains inside the downward sloping channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. The resistance at $1,220-30 remains intact and so does the support at $1.212 and $1,207. Today or the latest tomorrow I expect Gold price to make a break out. If it breaks support I will prefer short positions targeting $1,180. If resistance breaks, I will remain neutral as this would be a countertrend bounce. I would prefer to wait for the bounce towards $1,240-50 to complete before selling again.
Blue line = support
Red line = resistance
In the 30-minute chart as shown above, the short-term trend line that was upward sloping has been broken. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and as long as support at $1,212 holds, bulls still have a chance of a break out towards $1,240. I remain longer-term bearish and I believe that short-term traders should only look for selling opportunities and signals.
EUR/USD: This is a bearish market. With more bearish journey, the price could stay below the resistance line at 1.2750, while targeting the support line at 1.2600. The resistance lines at 1.2750 and 1.2800 should serve as barriers against bullish attempts that may happen long the way.
USD/CHF: The strength in the Greenback is one of the reasons why this pair is going upwards. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, brought about by the perpetual weakness in the EUR/USD and the perceived strength in the Greenback. Since the middle of July 2014, the market has moved upwards by close to 600 pips, and this would continue as long as the Greenback is strong. Any sudden weakness in the Greenback can enable the price to be pulled back towards the support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400 respectively.
GBP/USD: The Forex markets are now at critical points. For instance, the bias on the Cable is bearish but there is a need for the price to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6200 so that the bias could be stronger. On the other hand, a rally above the distribution territory at 1.6350 would mean the end of the bearish bias.
USD/JPY: This is a bullish market as well and the pair is currently trading above the demand level at 109.00. There is a possibility that the price could reach the supply level at 110.00, but should there be a sudden stamina in the Yen, the price could tumble.
EUR/JPY: This cross is also making some bullish attempts, following the bearish run that happened on it last week. With a continuation of the southward movement, the price could break below the demand zone at 138.50, going towards another demand zone at 138.00.
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The cable took the support at the 61.8 fib level and pulled back towards 20Dsma. Today, the pair opened above the previous close and looks stronger. Now, as of today, the pair has made a high at 1.6268 unable to breach previous days high . The pair has strong resistance at 1.6285 20Dsma, above this it can fly up to 1.6333 and 1.6342 levels. The cable has a strong resistance zone at 1.64-1.6415 and 1.6410 on closing basis. If a daily close is above 1.6410, the near-term view turns to positive with upside targets at 1.6465, 1.65, and 1.6563; until then sell on every up move.
For an intraday move, the pair has been facing strong resistance at 12ema or 1.6275 above this, 1.6320 will act as strong resistance. On the downside, it has support at 1.6225 and 1.6215 below these, selling pressure will lead in this pair towards the 1.62,1.6185, and 1.6160 levels.
Safe buy above 1.6320, risky traders buy at 1.63.
Sell below 1.6215.
The pair breached the 200Msma but unable to sustain above that. Today's closing will provide further room in the near and short term. A monthly close above 177.65 adds further bullish thought. The pair has support at 177.15, below this at 176.65 and 176.40 levels. The pair is making a symmetric triangle on the daily chart. The height of the triangle is 2 units. The trend decider levels existed at 177.15 on the downside and 178.20 on the higher side. The weekly support existed at the 175.28 level. If a daily close is below 20Dsma, the pair will fall to the 173.51 levels.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 35DEMA and 12ema levels. Safe traders can sell below 177.38 and risky traders can sell at cmp 177.70 using sl 178.20. Huge buying will take place above 178.20 with an upside target at 178.45-178.50 and 178.75, maybe 179.20.
Huge buying above 178.20.
The pair hit the 50Wsma and closed below the upper end of the descending triangle. This week, as of now the pair is facing strong resistance at 139.20 unable to breach it. The Japanese key data are pending in today's session. The retail sales, household spending and Preliminary industrial production will determine a further trend. The safe buy will trigger above the 140 level. The pair has support at the 138.38 and 138 levels, below these the pair will face selling pressure. For the latest 2 days, the pair has managed to close above 20Dsma. If a daily close is below 20Dsma, the weekly trend turns to more negativity. The weekly support existed between the 137.75-137.70 levels.
Support 138.38 138 137.75-137.70
Resistance 139.15 139.65 140 on cb
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below the hourly key moving averages. A strong sell will emerge below 138.65 with a downside target at 138.50, 138.38, below this at the 138, 137.75-137.70 levels. The free fall mode will trigger below 138.38. Currently, the pair is trading on a verge of a break down level in the h4 chart.
Sell below 138.65; panic will be below 138.38.
Buy above 139.15.
The stronger US data have dominated in the recent weeks. The pair is trading at 109.41 near the resistance level of 110.66. Today the US data will provide enough support to breach the near resistance for further increase towards 112 and 114.70 in the near term. Japan will release key data: retail sales, household spending and prelim industrial production. On the higher side, 114.70 is the 80.0 fib level from 124 levels in June 2007 to 75.57 in October 2011. The pair has support at 106.50 200MSma on a closing basis. On the US dollar front, as we recommended earlier, in case of a breach above the $85 mark, the yen is expected to tick down towards 114, 118, 120, and 123 in the longer time frames. We mentioned the same probability in December 2013 when this pair was trading around 99). Again, we recommended 101 levels on July 11, 2014. This pair is on a verge of another breakout in the monthly chart. Today is the last trading day in this month and the quarter. Today's closing will give further direction.
A close above the trend line adds a further bullish sign towards 120-123- pending
For an intraday view, the pair is facing strong resistance at 35DEMA. We recommend buying above 109.50. The pair has support at 109.30, 109.10 and 109. We expect some weakness only below 109 towards 108.50 and 108.25. Use a dip to buy.
