Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting its one-week low at 101.72 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 2.16% to 14.04; S&P rose 0.49% overnight) as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in her testimony before U.S. Senate Banking Committee said harsh weather has played a role in recent "soft data," although she isn't sure to what extent, but added that the Fed might consider a pause in its reduction of bond buying if the weakness persists, while U.S. durable goods orders fell smaller-than-expected 1.0% in January (versus forecast 2.0% drop). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers and expansionary Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But risk appetite is dented by the persistent uncertainty about China's yuan policy and concerns about possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan the exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.28 versus 80.43 early Thursday) on larger-than-expected 14,000 rise in U.S. jobless claims to 348,000 in week ended Feb. 22 (versus 335,000 forecast), fall in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to +4 in February from +5 in January; positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.35. The pivot point stands at 102.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.50 and the second target at 102.75.

Resistance levels:

102.45

102.75

103.05

Support levels:

101.6

101.35

101

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, flows to haven CHF amid tensions in Ukraine and franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But CHF sentiment are dented by weaker-than-expected Switzerland 4Q GDP growth of +1.7% on-year (versus forecast +2.1%). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish at oversold zone, but MACD is still in bearish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8790. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8770. The pivot point stands at 0.8855. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8875 and the second target at 0.8910.

Resistance levels:

0.8875

0.8910

0.8935

Support levels:

0.8790

0.8770

0.8750

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting its eight-day high 0.8391 Thursday. It is supported by the weaker dollar sentiment, improved risk appetite, kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the concerns over economic slowdown in China and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is in bullish mode, stochastics is turning bullish and five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.843 and the second target at 0.846. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8350. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8330. The pivot point is at 0.8370.

Resistance levels:

0.843

0.846

0.849

Support levels:

0.8350

0.8330

0.8310

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the improved risk appetite, demand from Japan importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy. But EUR/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, tensions over Ukraine, and speculation that the European Central Bank might ease monetary policy at its meeting next week and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is falling from overbought zone; but MACD is in bullish mode, bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.8 and the second target at 171.2. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.35. The pivot point is at 169.35.

Resistance levels:

170.8

171.2

171.6

Support levels:

169

168.35

167.9

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

The pair remains in the bearish impulse initiated off its peak price around 1.6820 as long as this highest price doesn't get broken through.

The breakdown of 1.6600 is essential to confirm reversal and trigger a stronger pullback, which will pause the short-term bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.6536 (50% Fibonacci Level of the swing between 1.6250/1.6821) and psychological Demand of 1.6500 as well.

Price level 1.6600 seems to be a considerable support for the pair so far. The bears failed to fixate below it on the last bearish attempt on Monday.

Instead, bullish pressure was applied to push again towards 1.6750 and 1.6800.

The bulls were concentrated around 1.6600 considering it as an ideal reversal point.

Stabilization of 1.6600 protected the pair from further decline. This led to a sideway consolidative phase before the ongoing bullish breakout took place Yesterday.

As expected, breakthrough above 1.6666 opened the way towards 1.6740 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent bearish swing depicted on the 4H chart.

Breakthrough above 1.6740 is a must to bring bulls back to push towards 1.6820 again.

On the other hand, stabilization below which traps the pair between it and the backside of the broken channel around 1.6650 (Recent Demand Level).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms are being established on the daily chart. This means the uptrend line established on September 2013 is still intact.

The ongoing bullish impulse is probably targeting at 1.3900 corresponding to 100% Fibonacci Expansion.

The pair failed to reach this price level on the previous attempt that took place on December 2013.

As long as the bulls are defending the recent bottom at 1.3630, the EUR/USD pair remains bullish on the intermediate prospective.

On the other hand, breakdown of 1.3600-1.3630 invalidates the bullish scenario which is least likely to occur based on the given analysis.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Considerable support was provided around 1.6250. This price level corresponds to the previous multiple tops as well as the recent bottom.

A breakthrough above the price zone of 1.6590-1.6660 opened the way directly towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.6820 where the bears established a prominent top.

As expected, a bearish impulse towards 1.6590-1.6660 took place. An ascending bottom was established there on February 25.

The pair is still trapped between 1.6730 (61.8% Fibonacci on the 4H chart) and 1.6590 (lower limit of this congestion zone).

Breakout in either direction will allow enough momentum to be gathered in the same direction of breakout.

Breakdown of 1.6590 clears the way towards a more prominent support around 1.6530 ( Fibonacci 50% on the daily chart) and probably 1.6470 (Fibonacci 61.8% of the same swing).

Price action should be watched at retesting of price zone of 1.6550-1.6470 as a valid BUY entry may be offered with Stop Loss as 4H closure below 1.6500.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 28, 2014 Trend News

After fresh highs have been hit recently, the USD failed to keep its gains against the CAD.

The pair established a prominent top around 1.1220 that pushed the USD/CAD pair back to the previous congestion zone between 1.0850 and 1.0960.

This congestion zone provided considerable support at retesting on February 19. This led again towards 1.1185 where another top was established last Friday.

The bullish rejection expressed at 1.0960 is probably pushing towards 1.1235 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci.

Daily fixation above 1.1235 opens the way directly towards the next resistance level around 1.1650 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci.

On the other hand, bearish rejection off the current levels will push the pair again towards 1.0950 then 1.0850 as initial targets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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#USDX Technical analysis for February 28, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is negatively influenced by the higher than expected CPI announced for EUROZONE today as EURUSD is its major component. The Dollar index is making lower lows breaking below important support at 80 and 79.95. Trend is down and unless the US GDP makes a surprise that strengthens the Dollar, we should expect the Dollar index to test 79.75 support and why not push even lower towards 79.

The weakness was evident as prices were hardly making a move above the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This downward break is a very bearish sign for the dollar as the entire sideways move could be a bearish flag. Short-term support is found at 79.75 and short-term resistance is found at 80.40.

The Dollar index is braking down sharply as EURUSD is making a move above the important resistance of 1.38. Bulls should have been stopped as prices have broken below our support at 80.15. The divergence in RSI on the daily chart above is making us cautious as to whether we should take part in this downward move.

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Gold technical analysis for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has back tested the broken support trend line and is now moving lower to test the short-term low at $1,325. Gold price has made a lower high at $1,335 and this is a bearish sign. The inability of bulls to break above $1,340 has pushed the precious metal lower. As long as Gold price trades below $1,335, we remain bearish with $1,305 as a minimum target.

Short-term support is found at $1,325. Short-term resistance is at $1,335. Breaking above $1,335 will open the way to $1,360. Now the trend is down and we expect the Gold price to continue lower towards $1,305. The ichimoku cloud as shown in the chart above shows clearly that Gold is near supportive levels. Breaking below $1,305 will push the Gold price towards $1,280.

The daily chart shows how close to resistance Gold is now and why we expected the reversal at this level. Important support on a daily basis is $1,305 and important resistance is at $1,340. We remain bearish as we believe this downward move maybe the start of something bigger or at least its downward correction is not yet finished. Stop for bears is $1,335.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6560

R2: 1.6496

R1: 1.6397

Current spot: 1.6314

S1: 1.6291

S2: 1.6253

S3: 1.6214

Technical summary:

We were looking for a wave 2 correction towards 1.6445, but it has extended lower and is currently testing support at 1.6290. The downside is limited from here and under no circumstances should we see a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252. In the short term we will be looking for a break above resistance at 1.6397 as the first good indication that wave 2 is over and wave 3 higher towards 1.7141 is developing. Only a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252 will invalidate our bullish count, but even if we see a break below 1.6252, the downside potential should be limited.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6510 with stop placed at 1.6210. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above resistance at 1.6397.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.07

R2: 141.27

R1: 140.29

Current spot: 139.47

S1: 138.68

S2: 137.55

S3: 136.22

Technical summary:

The downside pressure has been stronger than we expected, therefore we have to consider the possibility that wave b of the decline from 145.69 already is in place and wave c lower towards 126.00 is developing. In the short term a break below support at 138.68 is needed to confirm that wave b is indeed in place and wave c developing. However, as long as support at 138.68 is protecting the downside there is a possibility that one last rally closer to 142.26 will be seen.

Trading кecommendation:

We will sell EUR at 142.00 or upon a break below 138.65.

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