Monday 21 October 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 22, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6263


R2: 1.6233


R1: 1.6211


Current Spot: 1.6177


S1: 1.6120


S2: 1.6057


S3: 1.6017


Technical summary:


With a break above the minor resistance at 1.6136, we knew that blue wave iv would extend higher towards 1.6183 and possibly even to 1.6211, before blue wave v would be ready to take over for the final decline towards 1.5872, where we expect wave C of the large expanding flat correction, which began from 1.7153 in early August. However, a break below 1.6120 will confirm that blue wave iv is over and blue wave v lower is developing. At no point should we see a break above resistance at 1.6233, as that would indicate that wave C of the expanded flat correction is already in place.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 1.6130 with your stop and reverse at 1.6240. If you are not short in EUR, then sell near 1.6211 with the same stop and reverse at 1.6240.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 22, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 135.76


R2: 134.95


R1: 134.50


Current Spot: 134.38


S1: 134.18


S2: 133.60


S3: 133.33


Technical summary:


We keep gaining ground, but we still in lack of acceleration towards the upside, which we normally expect during wave iii, but then we are still only in the early stages of wave iii; therefore the expected acceleration can take place any time.


In the short term we would like to see support at 134.18 protecting the downside for the next rally higher towards 134.95 and higher towards our next target at 135.76. However, if we see a break below the support at 134.18, we will find the next minor support at 134.03, but at no time should we trade below 133.60, as that would delay the expected rally higher.


Trading recommendation:


Stay long in EUR from 134.18 and raise your stop to 133.50. If you are not long in EUR, then buy close to 134.18 with the same stop at 133.50.


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Silver rallies above the 22.00 levels. Immediate resistance is at 22.50 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal rallied above the 22.00 levels yesterday, but it would be facing immediate resistance at the 22.50 levels soon. It is recommended to buy on dips from here on; the area of interest would be between 21.00 and 21.50. Immediate resistance is at 22.50, followed by 23.50, 24.00 and 25.00 on the higher side; while support is just below 21.00, followed by 19.00 and lower respectively. As seen here, the overall rally from 18.00 to 25.00 looks to have retraced to 0.618 fibonacci support; and prices are poised to rally further towards fresh highs of 28.00 and higher from here on. Watch out for dips towards the 21.50/21.00 levels to initiate long positions.


Trading recommendations:


Buy on dips from here on. Set stop at 20.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Gold turns to buy-on-dips now. 1,280-1,300 is of interest. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal is poised to pullback towards the 1,280-1,300 levels from here on. It is recommended to remain short, as for the aggressive trading strategy, but to turn bullish between the 1,280/1,285 levels if they are reached within coming sessions. Support levels are 1,210.00, followed by 1180.00; while resistance levels are spread through 1,350/75, 1,440 and 1,480.00 respectively. Please note that the entire rally from 1,180.00 to 1,440.00 has been retraced to 0.618 fibonacci support around 1,250, and that prices may be looking to turn around for another extended rally thorough the 1,500-1,600 region from here on. A fall towards the 1,280/90 levels and bullish reversal from there would confirm the above.


Tradeing recommendations:


The aggressive trade setup would be to remain short, and cover up ahead of 1,280.00. Turn bullish from there.


Good luck!


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EURJPY attempting to test the resistance level of 135.00. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair is attempting to retest the resistance at 135.00, as depicted here. Aggressive trade setup is still to remain short with risk placed above 135.00 for now. Intermediary support remains at 131.00, followed by 129.00/128.00 and 125.00; while resistance remains at the 135.00 levels respectively. The overall undertone remains very much bullish till the time prices remain above 131.00, but a possible correction cannot be ruled out either. If prices manage to push ahead of 135.00 from here, the next higher extensions are pointing towards 136.00 and higher. Looking into the structure, the short-term bearish view holds till prices are below 135.00.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive setup is to remain short for now, stop is above 135.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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#USDX Analysis for October 21, 2013 Trend News

As expected by our last analysis, the Dollar index has stop its decline and is now making a corrective pull back towards the short-term resistance of 79.75. The decline from 80.70 is most probably complete and the index is making an upward correction. If the hort-term resistance at 80.75 is broken, it will confirm that we are in a corrective wave that could push prices towards 80.05-80.20.



The longer-term trend is downward, and there is no sign of a trend reversal. For the short term, prices are expected to make a corrective move up. The daily chart shows that bears should not be worried about anything as long as prices trade below 80.70.



The slope of both our MA implies that there will most probably be more downside pressure in the Dollar Index. If bulls want to reverse trend to south, then they should first break above the 80.70 high, and then move higher and challenge the 81.70 resistance. Concluding we remain short biased in the long term as long as prices trade below 80.70.


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EUR/JPY H1 analysis for October 21, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 21/20/2013 10:30 CET


Despite the fact that DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE has been broken, there is not much of impulsive wave progression and an alternate green count can not be ruled out.


The shape of the correction still might be a rather expanded Irregular Flat, but the maximum level for this extension to the upside is the level of 134.51. Any price above this level typically rules out the Irregular Flat wave 2 possibility, and new count is in need to correctly label the present wave progression.


Nevertheless, the golden trendline acts as a dynamic support level very well so far, and only a breakout of the trendline is a clue for more downside wave development.


Support/Resistance:


134.75 - WR1


134.51 - Wave C green max. level


134.31 - Intraday High


133.82 - Golden trendline support


133.68 - Weekly Pivot


133.60 - Intraday Support


133.32 - Intraday Support


133.20 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Due to lack of impulsive bullish wave progression and unfinished corrective cycle, the bias is top the downside to finish wave Y brown of a corrective cycle wave (ii) green.


Intraday scalp positions should be a short entries with SL above 134.35 and TP1 at 133.82 and TP2 at 133.60.



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USD/CAD H1 analysis for October 21, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 21/10/2013 10:15 CET


Wave A green looks to be finished, but so far there is not much movement at the begining of this week, and this pair is still in congestion zone where Intraday Resistance level keeps at 1.0298.


If this level is not broken, then more downside should be expected together with 1.0273 Technical Support test.


However, the breakout above 1.0298 should bring the test of the golden trendline and Weekly Pivot level at 1.0312. If this levels are broken, next target for wave c would be Technical Resistance level at 1.0330. This is the point where some intraday consolidation should start.


Support/Resistance:


1.0275 - Techncial Support


1.0298 - Intraday Resistance


1.0312 - Weekly Pivot


1.0330 - Technical Resistance | Wave a green target |


1.0348 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Intraday scalps for a breakout trade of the level of 1.0298 is preffered with SL below 1.0275 and potential TP1 at 1.0315 and TP2 1.0330.



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