Daily analysis of major pairs for April 17, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: In spite of the threat carried out by the bears, this pair remains in bull market. After a serious battle around the support line at 1.3800, the price has been able to trend a little northwards. The previously-mentioned support line would continue to act as a barrier to southward pulls.

USD/CHF: Likewise, the bearish scenario on the USD/JPY remains valid (though it also remains precarious). The EMA 56 has done a good job by acting as resistance in the market, but this does not rule out the possibility that the strength of the EMA could be tested again. It is imperative that the price will stay below the market resistance level at 0.8800, so that the bearish outlook can continue to be valid.

GBP/USD: After the shallow bearish correction that was seen on it earlier this week, the Cable has been given a new lease of energy. The pair is now trading above the accumulation territory at 1.6800, going towards the distribution territory at 1.6850, which is an easy target for the bulls. Moreover, some economic figures that would be released today would have effect on the USD, and therefore, would have affect the Cable.

USD/JPY: The rally that occurred on the USD/JPY pair has proven to be a bogus one – for the price has fallen below the EMA 56 again. The RSI period 14 also is almost going below the level 50. Long trades are no longer sensible here.

EUR/JPY: On this currency trading instrument, spurious signals and equilibrium zones have been persistent. Presently, it is difficult to say whether the bulls or the bears have a clear victory, so it is better to stay out of the market untill a clean signal comes.

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Forecast of EUR/USD for April 17, 2014 Trend News

The eurozone is in deflation already, the euro rises only complements that and the only way this view does not play out is that euro area leaders give in to their own quantitative easing. On the other hand, the rising commodity prices pose the inflation threat that has been lingering for very long time and those with their dollar crash views would come out screaming again, the rising gold prices have recently supported their cause. In a floating rate regime, however, there are only exchange rates that reflect capital flows and trade flows, not the intrinsic worth of anything, prices move to their intrinsic worth during only a crisis. So all this for now should only mean that money is flowing out of the US into other assets. OR that trade is in favor of Europe with its improving competitiveness thanks to deflation. That has some truth as the Eurozone does share a positive trade balance with the US.

EUR/USD has been in an uptrend from 1.3673 levels. It is facing strong selling pressure at 1.39 levels. We are upbeat only above 1.4 levels. The pair is taking support at 1.3780 and facing resistance at 1.3863 levels. If it crosses the 1.3863 levels, it will shoot up to 1.3910 and 1.3960 levels. If it breaks the 1.3863 levels, it will fall up to 1.3740, 1.37 and 1.3673 levels. Until the pair crosses the 1.3910 level, down side gates are open for 1.3645 and 1.36 levels.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 17, 2014 Trend News

Canada’s currency was the biggest loser over the past six months among 10 developed-nation peers. The Canadian dollar dropped as the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, where it’s been since 2010, and remained neutral on the direction of its next move. The currency weakened 0.3 percent to C$1.1011 per U.S. dollar. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate steady Wednesday, and kept its ‘neutral’ stance on future moves in an as-expected policy statement. The bank cut its growth forecast of the year from 2.5% to 2.3% on the impact of the harsh winter. It also pushed up its call for inflation this year, warning about the risks of low inflation.

Technical view-

The pair has been in a down trend from 1.1279 levels. It made a low at 1.0859 levels and pushed towards the 38.2 fib level. Currently it is facing resistance at 1.1018 levels. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.1005, unable to trade above the 1.1018 levels. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 38.2 fib level at 1.1018 levels, it will push towards the major resistance level at 1.1054 (50SMA) in the daily chart. Once it crosses the 50SMA level, it will push towards 1.1066 and 1.1080 levels. The complete bull track will come only above the 1.1080 (March 28 high). In the daily chart RSI is favoring bulls.

On the down side, the pair has strong support between 1.0954-1.0960 levels. Once it breaks this level, it will drift to 1.0942, 1.0920, 1.0860, and 1.0810 levels.

Intraday-

The pair is trading between 1.0959 (50SMA) - 1.1034 (200EMA) in the H4 chart. We expect the pair will move to the upside only sustaining above the 1.1034 levels for 1.1067 and 1.1118. The level of 1.1070 is the very crucial for bulls to cross and a close above that will fuel more strength. If the pair breaks the 1.0959 level, it will drift all the way to 1.0940, 1.0915, and 0.892 levels.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 17, 2014 Trend News

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday affirmed its upbeat view of the economy, even as global financial markets wobble, stressing that growth will pick up around mid-year as the sting of a sales tax hike fades.The dollar rose the most in two weeks against the yen as risk appetite swelled amid a higher-than-forecast gain in U.S. industrial production and as companies’ earnings topped estimates, damping demand for safety.

Technical view-

Forecast

The pair is facing strong resistance at 102.36 levels (50SMA). We are not in an upbeat in this pair until it crosses and closes above the 50SMA. For the last 3 months the pair spent most of its trading days below the 50SMA levels, that is not a bullish signal for the medium term view. Whenever it trades above the 50SMA, it will fly a bit and keep on taking support at the 101 levels. In the daily chart, we can observe the lower low formation, when it fell from the highs. The pair has strong support at 101.30 and 100.78 levels.

On the up side, if the pair trades above the 50SMA (red line) initially, it will go up to 102.75 levels, above this, 103.10, 103.40, 103.75, and 104 levels. In the weekly charts, the RSI is not favored longs, that means fresh upside breakouts are not possible. The bulls are back on track completely above 104.11 levels. The weekly support exists at 100.63 levels. A weekly close below this, we expect a major fall towards 97 levels. Until then, the pair trades within a range between 101.33 - 104.11. Bulls will enter fresh longs at every dip with sl 100.63 for target at 105.17.

Intraday-

The pair is facing resistance at the 38.2 fib level of 102.40 and 200EMA at 102.45 in the H4 chart. RSI still favors the long side for 1- or 2-day perspective, but only above 102.50, it is the safe buy. On the down side, 102 is the initial support for the day. Safe traders, sell below 102 with targets at 101.80, 101.66, and 101.50 levels.

Positional- Buy above 102.75 for targets at 103.10, 103.40, 103.75, and 104.

Intraday- Buy above 102.50 for targets at 102.75, 103.05, and 103.40.

Sell below 102.16 for targets at 101.80, 101.66, and 101.50 levels.

Adopt a strategy and trade safe

joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 17, 2017 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6135

R2: 1.6122

R1: 1.6077

Current spot: 1.6049

S1: 1.6026

S2: 1.5988

S3: 1.5927

Technical summary:

Red wave c of the triangle ended at 1.6122 and red wave d is now unfolding. The ideal target area for red wave d is between 1.5908 and 1.5936, from where the final red wave e should be seen. In the short term we will be looking for resistance at 1.6069 protecting the upside for a break below 1.6026 and more importantly below support at 1.5988, which will confirm that red wave c has ended at 1.6122 and that red wave d is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our sale of EUR at 1.6130 by a fraction. We will sell EUR here at 1.6049 with a stop and reverse placed at 1.6185.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 17, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.17

R2: 141.76

R1: 141.47

Current spot: 141.18

S1: 140.90

S2: 140.64

S3: 140.22

Technical summary:

The break above the hort-term important resistance at 141.55 made us go back to our original short-term count. This count shows that red wave i ended at 140.08 and since then red wave ii has been developing. It is possible that red wave ii ended with a test of 141.76 yesterday, as that marked the 50% corrective target of red wave i, but the decline from 141.76 does not really look impulsive and therefore we think that one more new high closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 142.17 will be seen before red wave iii takes over for a decline towards 136.33.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 141.60 was hit for a small loss. We will sell EUR again at 142.05 with a stop at 143.50 expecting to see lower the stop soon.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 17, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has made a bearish rebound near the 79.80 level and this is normal, because the USDX is making corrective movements. However, this hypothesis is void if the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.11. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX remains below the 200 SMA as the USDX has failed to make a breakout on the resistance level of 79.93. Now, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 79.69. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.32. For now, caution should be exercised when placing buy orders as the MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX continues to move in the range between the levels of 79.88 and 79.64. However, the USDX remains below the 200 SMA, which keeps alive the current bearish outlook. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.64, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.39. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.90.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 17, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD has made a successful breakout at the resistance level of 1.6766, and now it is very likely that this pair will rise in the coming hours to the resistance level of 1.6851. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6700 in the medium term. The MACD indicator is still in positive territory.

H4 chart: GBP/USD is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.6785. This bullish momentum is indicating that this pair would rise to the resistance level of 1.6900 in the coming hours. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6785, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6705. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: This pair has consolidated above the 200 SMA and the nearest resistance level is at the level of 1.6850. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6900. On the other hand, if the pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6800, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6750. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6850, take profit is at 1.6900, and stop loss is at 1.6800.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 17, 2014 Trend News

During the European session, German PPI m/m is slated for release. The US will release the economic data too such as the Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Natural Gas Storage, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3880.

Strong Resistance:1.3881.

Original Resistance: 1.3868.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3855.

Target Inner Area: 1.3822.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3789.

Original Support: 1.3776.

Strong Support: 1.3763.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3754.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3776 and 1.3868. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3763 and by 1.3881 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3754 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3880 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3789 and at 1.3855, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3822.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 17, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan is going to report on the Consumer Confidence, and the BOJ Gov Kuroda Speech. The US will release some economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.58.

Resistance. 2: 102.38.

Resistance. 1: 102.18.

Support. 1: 101.94.

Support. 2: 101.73.

Support. 3: 101.53.

DESCRIPTION:

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Forecast and technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 17-25, 2014 Trend News

GBP- The United Kingdom's unemployment rate dropped to a five-year low of 6.9 per cent in the quarter to February, far below most of its European rivals, as the country's economic recovery picks up speed before next year's general election. The drop beats analysts' consensus forecast of a decrease to 7.1 percent. The rate for the period of December through February compares with 7.2 percent for the quarter ending January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement. The fall in unemployment would put pressure on Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney to hike the key interest rate from a record low of 0.50 percent sooner than expected.

Technical view-

Forecast April 17-25

GBP/USD was unable to cross the crucial level of 1.6823. It is the game change level for the next week trading pattern. The pair made a high at 1.6823 on February 17, 2014 and it's gone through a decent correction. The pair has been trying to cross the 1.6823 level for the last 2 months, but the bulls didn't succeed in their 2 attempts on April 10 and April 16. If we go through the weekly chart, we will see that if the pair is unable to cross the resistance level, we can treat it as a triple top pattern on a closing basis, which is not good for bulls. I expect something will happen to this pair in the next week's trading. If it crosses the 1.6823 level , the next week high will be printed at 1.6875, 1.6912, and 1.7043. I expect 1.6912 will be the high for the next week if the pair crosses the 1.6823 level.

On the down side, if the pair does not cross the 1.6823 level, it will drift up to near support at 1.678 levels. Safe traders can enter short positions below 1.678 levels for targets at 1.6718. In case of a break below the S2, the pair will drift more towards 1.6684, 1.6661, and 1.6650 levels. A day close below the 1.6723, the bear bells will start and the panic button will be hit if a day close below 1.6650 for 1.6554.

Intraday-

Currently, the pair is trading between 1.6823-1.6782. Breakout either side, it will give a room for further move towards 1.6875 or 1.6718 levels in intraday. The RSI in the H4 chart is giving a negative divergence, indicating higher selling will be possible. On the down side, it will face selling pressure at 1.678 levels, the targets T1 and T2 are marked in the below chart.

Recommendations-

Safe traders

Sell below 1.678 for targets at 1.6718, 1.6684, and 1.666.

Buy above 1.6823 for targets 1.6875 and 1.6912 levels.

Risky traders-

Sell at cmp 1.6798 levels with sl 1.6823.

Adopt a strategy and trade safe

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In the today's H4 chart, yesterday the metal failed to break the Support level of 19.20 to bounce again from it and trade between the Support level of 19.50 and the Resistance level of 19.75. Currently, the metal is re-testing the Resistance level of 19.75 again, therefore we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close 4H above today, this gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.20, then the second target of 20.50 after breaking this Support level. But as long as silver is trading below 19.75, so waiting would be prefered in that case and cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3(20.50), R2 (20.20), R1 (19.75), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.20), S3 (18.75)

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for April 16 , 2014 Trend News

Overview

In the today's H4 chart and as it was expected yesterday, we should wait for breaking the Resistance level of 172.00 before making a decision to continue the bullish move. Today and as it is shown in the H4 chart, the pair failed to break this Resistance level to reverse its bullish move taking a new bearish move to approach the Support level of 171.50. Currently, it is testing the Support area trying to break it through to continue its bearish move. If the pair manages to break this Support area and closes 4H below, it would be another good opportunity for more sell-signals till reaching the Support level of 170.50 as the first target.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (173.50) R2 (173.00) R1 (172.00), S1 (171.50), S2 (170.50), S3 (169.75).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was previously established during February and March.

Daily fixation below 1.6600 (reversal pattern neckline) exposed price level 1.6530 (50% Fibonacci) then enabled the pair to hit the full projection target at 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci).

The recent lows at 1.6465 as well as 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep fixing above 1.6630-1.6666 (corresponding to a prominent top established on January 24).

As long as the ascending bottom established at the uptrend around 1.6555 remains intact, the bulls will be consolidating around 1.6780-1.6800.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6660-1.6675. It's the most recent established top on the current bullish swing.

As mentioned Yesterday, any bearish pull-back towards 1.6660 -1.6675 should be considered for buying. Yesterday this BUY position was triggered and running in profits now.

As long as 1.6555 (most recent bottom) remains defended by the bulls our long position remains valid.

The 4H chart reveals more significance of the demand zone around the recently broken top mentioned above in the daily chart.

This demand zone corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels which is a critical demand zone for the ongoing bullish swing.

The price zone of 1.6645-1.6680 offered a valid BUY entry on the recent bearish pull-back as expected.

Stop loss should be located below 1.6625.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range. USD/JPY is buoyed by buying of yen crosses amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 3.1% to 15.61) on positive cue from Wall Street overnight (S&P closed up 0.68% after volatile session) despite the escalating conflict in Ukraine, broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 79.79 versus 79.75 early Tuesday) on higher-than-expected 0.2% rise in U.S. March CPI (versus +0.1% forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in Empire State manufacturing index to 1.29 in April from 5.61 in March (versus forecast for rise to 8.0), weaker-than-expected rise in NAHB housing market index to 47 in April from 46 in March(versus 50 forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan exporter sales, diminished expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.95.

Resistance levels:

102.65

103

103.25

Support levels:

101.65

101.45

101.20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 16, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3870 allowed enough bearish pressure to be applied on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied which paused the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

Friday's daily candlestick came as a bearish "Doji" indicating lack of enough bullish momentum. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlestick aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is offering support so far (bullish hammer candlestick).

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as a significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

As suggested on Friday, price levels around 1.3880 provided a valid SELL entry. Profits should have be taken near 1.3820-1.3800.

For the bulls, price zone 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone to be watched for a valid BUY position. Stop Loss should be located below 1.3740.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level to be watched for early exit of the current bullish position in case significant bearish pressure is applied.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by the broadly firmer dollar undertone, 0.4% on-year drop in Switzerland March PPI and 1.5% on-year fall in import price index, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance and franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8825 and the second target at 0.8845. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8735. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8695. The pivot point is at 0.8755.

Resistance levels:

0.8825

0.8845

0.8870

Support levels:

0.8735

0.8695

0.8650

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the lower-than-expected New Zealand 1Q CPI (rose 0.3% on quarter versus +0.5% forecast) and concerns over the Chinese economy, broadly firmer dollar undertone and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8570. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8545. The pivot point stands at 0.8630. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8660 and the second target at 0.8690.

Resistance levels:

0.8660

0.8690

0.8625

Support levels:

0.8570

0.8545

0.85

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the reduced risk aversion and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and diminished expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.10 and the second target at 172.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 170.55. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 170.06. The pivot point is at 170.90.

Resistance levels:

172.10

172.75

173.35

Support levels:

170.55

170.06

169.65

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 16, 2014 Trend News

On March 12, the bulls failed to establish an ascending top. Instead, a Double Top reversal pattern was established at 1.5500. The neckline was located at 1.5170-1.5200 also corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted channel.

By breakdown of 1.51750, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern as well.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest Support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 ( 61.8% Fibonacci ).

Trading above 1.4740 on a daily basis will probably hinder further bearish progression giving some time for sideway consolidation at least for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci) which is a prominent resistance now.

On the other hand, daily closure below 1.4740 and a slide below 1.4675 will open the way towards 1.4350 as a projection target for the long-term bearish pattern.

There's a state of indecision around 61.8% Fibonacci level ( 1.4750 ). The bulls were offering support around 1.4725. This price level kept the pair consolidating above for a while. However, the bears managed to achieve a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on Monday which was followed by another bullish candlestick on Tuesday.

On the 4H chart, this indecisive state is manifested in the depicted channel which is slightly bearish. Breakthrough above its upper limit invalidates the bearish scenario for the short-term prospective.

On the other hand, trading within this channel enhances the long-term bearish prospective in which projection targets of the H&S reversal pattern are projected towards 1.4350 roughly.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 16, 2014 Trend News

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough bullish momentum above 1.1200. This exposed price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels).

Last week, the USD/CAD pair returned to test the previous support zone around 1.0900 (50% Fibonacci level) which previously provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19.

Daily closure below 1.0920 took place on Wednesday. However, it didn't take long time to have a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction on the next day.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.0990-1.1045 is expected to provide a considerable resistance as well. This price zone corresponds to the recently established resistance zone.

Any further visiting will probably offer a valid sell entry with stop loss located just above 1.1080.

It's important to note that the 4H chart reveals bullish pressure being applied over this resistance zone around 1.1000.

Bullish "Head and Shoulders pattern" is being expressed with multiple ascending bottoms being established. This may threatens our SELL entry level so bears should watch price action carefully and stick to our mentioned stop loss level.

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.6117 on the volume just above the average. According to the daily chart (Tuesday bar), we can observe demand bar on the volume just above the average, which may be a sign for further bullish reaction. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. I placed Fibonacci expansion levels and I have got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.6090 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6245. Buying looks risky, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply on higher volume may confirm further bearish movement. There is an also resistance at the price of 1.6175 (previous swing high).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6009

R2: 1.6038

R3: 1.6085

Support levels:

S1: 1.5915

S2 : 1.5886

S3: 1.5839

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Forecast in the short term :

• Due to the previous events, the price of NZD/USD pair is still between the levels of 0.8579 and 0.8615.


• The resistance will be formed at the level of 0.8700 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.8579 in order to to test the double bottom.


• Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.8725.


• The support will be formed at the level of 0.8600 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.8682 level. It should be noted that the level of 0.8682 is coinciding with the ratio of 61.8% at 0.8682.


• Stop-loss is to be placed below 0.8555.

Notes :

• The weekly pivot point will set at the price of 0.8620.


• We expect a range of 80 pips. Hence, the risk of 80 pips must make a profit of 120 pips.


• The key level has set at the price of 0.8580 today.

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GOLD analysis for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1,285.87 on ultra high volume (selling climax). According to the daily chart (Tuesday bar), we can observe strong supply on ultra high volume, which caused price to start moving downwards. According to the short-term prospective, Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci Retracement to find the first down station. Since we've got selling climax in the background, selling at this stage looks risky, so watch for retracement if you plan to build sell positions. According to current downward leg, we've got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,303.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,313.00. If the price breaks the level of 1,279.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,263.00. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,320.72

R2: 1,329.52

R3: 1,343.77

Support levels:

S1: 1,292.22

S2: 1,283.42

S3: 1,269.17

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is seen rising towards the 1.4800 levels as expected and discussed yesterday. Recommendations are to remain long, with risk at 1.4550 for now. Bulls are firmly in control at the moment and a push beyond 1.4830/40 would prove further bullish for the pair. Also note that it has bounced off the resistance turned trend line and fibonacci 50% ratio around 1.4630 levels.

2. Support is at 1.4600/30 (intermediary), followed by 1.4450, 1.4350, 1.4200 while resistance is at 1.4850, followed by 1.4950/60 and 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that bulls remain in control for now and the pair is expected to push beyond 1.4850 soon. Only a reversal from the 1.4800/30 would delay matters.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 1.4550, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair continues to probe/test trendline support of consolidation zone. At the moment it is seen trading comfortably above the 141.00 region. Resistance should be around 142.50, the trendline resistance within consolidation. Recommendations are to continue holding short positions for now, look to sell failure at 142.00/143.00 levels.

2. Support is at 140.00 (intermediary), followed by 138.50, 136.00 and lower, while resistance is at 142.20/143.00, followed by 144.00 and 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY rally should stall around 143.00 levels. The pair should reverse from there and continue drifting lower. Only a break above 144.00 would bring back bulls in picture.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 144.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 16, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold pulls back sharply from $1,330.00 levels as expected and towards $1,290.00/$1,300.00 levels as seen here. The bullish bounce indicates that long positions can be taken at current levels ($1301.00/03.00), risk remains at $1,277.00. Bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $1,277.00.

2. Support is seen at $1,277.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,230.00/40, $1,210.00 and lower respectively, while resistance is seen at $1,350.00/60.00 levels ], followed by $1,388.00 respectively.

3. The structure indicated that Gold remains buy on dips till prices remain above $1,277.00 for now. The counter trend rally that began from $1,277.00 should resume towards $1,350.00/60.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long/initiate longs, stop is at $1,277.00, target is open.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 16, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver broke the trend line support yesterday and fell to $19.20 levels before bouncing back. The metal still remains in control of bulls till prices stay above $19.00 levels. Recommendations are to remain long/buy fresh, risk remains at $19.00. Please note that the metal has bounced off the fibonacci 0.786 support of the entire rally from sub $18.00 levels to $22.30.

2. Support is at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $20.40 (intermediary), followed by $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver can still bounce back into the buy zone till $19.00 levels remain intact.

Trading recommendations:

Long positions advisable, stop is at $19.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The price of the GBP/USD pair has been not stable because the trend has been moving between 1.6590 and 1.6845 since April 4, 2014. Furthermore, it should be noted that the resistance has already set at the price of 1.6845 and the support is placed at 1.6590. Accordingly, it is of the wisdom to be careful in this area (rectangle).

• So, the first step is waiting in this spot before investing. As a result, it will probably be that the GBP/USD pair is going to start showing the signs of bullish market at the level of 1.6590. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above the price of 1.6600 with the first target of 1.6766 in order to try to close above the weekly pivot point and it will call for uptrend to continue its bullish movement towards 1.6845 for forming the strong resistance in H1 chart. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.6830. Thus, the level will be acting as strong resistance today. For that, it is providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.6770. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.6883.

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Gold wave analysis for April 16, 2014 Trend News

Yesterday we saw a strong decline in Gold price as I had forecasted since the upward sloping channel was broken and support at $1,315 failed. Gold price reached our target and moved even lower towards the 76% Fibonacci retracement where it bounced upwards. Gold price reached just below $1,285 and strongly reversed higher towards $1,300 where it consolidates.

Gold price is trading inside the Ichimoku cloud. This is neutral trend. If price moves above $1,310 I can say that short-term trend is up again. Support at $1,275 was held yesterday and this is an important bullish sign. If this support fails, forget about $1,340-50. If $1,275 support fails, I expect price to fall stronger towards $1,200. If support holds, I expect $1,330 to be challenged and why not see an upward move towards $1,350.

My favorite wave counts are shown above. I believe it is more probable that we completed wave B down and we have started wave C up that could bring Gold price near the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. My longer-term view remains bearish. So now I prefer to wait for Gold price to either break below $1,275 or go to $1,350 to sell it with $1,391 stop and $1,200 first target.

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#USDX Technical analysis for April 16, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index bounced from 79.30 and reached our 79.85 target yesterday only to be rejected by the Ichimoku cloud once again. Strong resistance is found in the 79.90-80 area and bulls find it difficult to break above these levels.

Today I believe it is more probable for the Dollar index to make a pull back down towards 79.50. Short- and long-term trend remains down. The upward bounce from 79.30 could be just a corrective bounce and I feel it is more probable for selling pressures to re-emerge. Breaking below 79.70 I will be more certain that we are heading towards 79.50 and maybe a re-test of the 79.30-.20 support.

In the daily chart the Dollar index has not managed to break any important resistance level. To change long-term trend to up, the index will need to break above 81.50. To change intermediate and short-term trend to up, the Dollar index will need to break above 80.70 and 80 respectively. Currently, the trend remains down. Price is below both the Ichimoku cloud and the trend line coming from 81.30. Breaking below 79.30-.20 is very bearish for the Dollar.

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