Weekly forecast of USD/CAD for May 05-09, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD

Economic events-

Monday-

· ISM non manufacturing PMI- US

Tuesday-

· Trade balance-Canada

· Trade balance- US

Wednesday-

· Building permits

· Fed chairwoman testifies- US

Thursday-

· German industrial production

· Minimum bid rate

· ECB press conference

· Unemployment claims- US

Friday-

· Jolts job opening- US

· Employment change and unemployment data- Canada

Weekly forecast-

The pair has been in a downtrend. The downtrend will resume once the pair breaks the 1.1053 levels. Until the pair trades below the 1.1053 level, 1.065 is an open target. The RSI is in the weekly chart indicating sell on the rally. For the last 2 weeks, the pair has been framing a lower lows and lower highs pattern in the weekly chart. This week's key level is at 1.1023 levels. Until trades below this, weakness persists. On the upside, 1.1014 is the initial resistance level (38.2 fib level), above this, 1.1023 and 1.1047 are the major resistance levels. On the down side, the level of 1.0920 is the key support level, if a break below this, bulls may be worried.

Intraday-

In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.0971 levels. The RSI in the daily and H4 chart indicates a buy on dips strategy for this week. We expect it will take support again and will move higher. On the up side, the pair has a strong resistance zone at 1.0990, 1.1 and 1.1035 levels. On the down side, 1.0960, 1.0942, 1.0920 and 1.09 levels are the support levels.

Buy on dips is recommended for this week.

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Weekly forecast for gold for May 05-09, 2014 Trend News

GOLD

Non-farm employment change- Review

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.8 million, decreased by 733,000.

Weekly forecast-

The metal has been framing higher highs and higher lows for the last 2 weeks, indicating the down trend. We are eyeing a pullback towards $1,316-$1,322 levels. As we recommended earlier in our last articles, don't short on a positional basis until the metal closes below the white line in the weekly charts. As of now, the metal opened on a bullish note. In Asia's trading session, it is trading at $1,305 levels. This week's key level is located between $1,316-$1,322 levels. On the upper side the level of $1,306.60 is the initial resistance for the metal, trades above it will push towards $1,316, $1,319.60 and $1,322 levels.

On the down side, the metal will take support at today's low $1,299 levels. If it trades below this, it will again fall to $1,285 levels.

Intraday-

During the time I am preparing this article, the metal crosses the initial resistance at $1,306.60 and hits a high at $1,309 levels. I expect in today's session the metal will come back again towards support levels. Above $1,306.60 level, the metal will shoot up to $1,311.60 (it hit $1,309), so fresh buying is only above this level, $1,312 is recommended for today's trading session. I expect selling is the best strategy today and the positional (2-3 days). Until crossing $1,312, be on the sell side, cmp is $1,308. On the down side, $1,306.60 is the initial support, below this, $1,301, $1,299, $1,296.40 and $1,292.

On the upside, if it trades above $1,312, it will shoot up to $1,316, $1,319.60 immediately. At higher levels, traders can short. The selling pressure will build up during the evening session.

Recommendations-

Safe traders-

Buy above $1,312 for targets at $1,316 and $1,319.60.

Sell below $1,305 with targets at $1,299, $1,296.40 and $1,292.

Risky traders- CMP is $1,308.

Sell with sl $1,312 and target $1,306.60, $1,301, $1,299, $1,296.40 and $1,292.

Adopt a strategy and trade safely.

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Weekly forecast of GBP/USD for May 05-09, 2014 Trend News

Economic events-

Monday-

· ISM non manufacturing PMI- US

Tuesday-

· Services PMI

· Trade balance- US

Wednesday-

· Fed chairwoman testifies- US

Thursday-

· Bank rate

· Unemployment claims- US

Friday-

· Jolts job opening- US

· Manufacturing production

Weekly forecast-

The pair is moving its last leg of its uptrend aiming at 1.70 and 1.7050 levels. This week, the trading pattern is sell on the rally. The pair generated a sell signal at 1.692 levels. During Friday's trading session, the pair took support at the previous top at 1.6823 levels. For the near term perspective until the pair trades above the 1.6823 level, it will try to move its final destination to 1.70 levels. The pair was struggling to close above 1.6823 levels for the last 2 months and finally closed above it. The RSI in the weekly chart indicates a positive divergence, but limited upside availability because in the daily chart, RSI already gave a sell call. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.6778 (weekly support).

We expect the pair to face selling pressure later today or tomorrow, so it is safe to short at higher levels or sell below 1.6823 is the safest method of trading. On the downside, 1.6823 will act as a key level this week. Below this, 1.6791, 1.6763, 1.673 and 1.6696 are initial targets. A day close below the 1.6823 level, the bear bells will start and the bear strength will tighten a day close below 1.6696 levels.

Intraday- key level 1.6826

In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.6878 levels. The pair has support between 1.6866-1.6872 levels and resistance at 1.6888 levels. On the down side, below 1.6866, the pair will drift all the way towards 1.68, 1.6763 and 1.674 levels.

Recommendations-

Intraday-

Buy above 1.6888

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Weekly forecast and intraday recommendations of EUR/USD for May 05- 09 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

Economic events-

Monday-

· EU economic forecast

· ISM non manufacturing PMI- US

Tuesday-

· Spanish unemployment data and Services PMI

· Italian services PMI

· Retail sales

· Trade balance- US

Wednesday-

· German factory orders

· French industrial production

· Fed chairwoman testifies- US

Thursday-

· German industrial production

· Minimum bid rate

· ECB press conference

· Unemployment claims- US

Friday-

· Jolts job opening- US

Weekly forecast-

The pair has been trading in a range bound for the last 3 weeks. It is facing strong resistance at higher levels. This week, the key level is located at 1.3906 levels. Until it crosses it, the weakness persists. Last week's low at 1.3774 is the strong support on the downside. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 1.3906 level, it will try to reach 1.40 and 1.41 levels. For the last 2 months the pair has been in a lower highs and lower lows pattern, which prints in a bearish image. On the down side, the level of 1.3812 is strong support; a day close below this, is an initial setup for bear bells and they will ring up to 1.3774, 1.3745 and 1.3673 levels.

Intraday-

As of now, the first trading session in this week the pair opened on a bearish note in Asia. Until the pair trades below the 1.3885 level, don't buy. It opened an open high bearish note. As we recommended before, sell on the rise was prefered strategy, the same strategy we are following this week. On an intraday basis, on the up side, 1.3885 and 1.3906 are the initial resistance levels; above them, the 1.3906 level 1.3934 and 1.3950 are the immediate resistance levels. We expect selling to be heavy in today's evening session or tomorrow, cmp 1.3873.

On the down side, the level of 1.3864 is a minor, 1.3841 and 1.3814 are the major support levels.

Recommendation-

Wait for an up move (final move), sell at higher levels.

So it is clear that the upside is limited and a downside journey will start soon.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 5, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence, EU Economic Forecasts, PPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3940.

Strong Resistance:1.3931.

Original Resistance: 1.3918.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3905.

Target Inner Area: 1.3872.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3839.

Original Support: 1.3826.

Strong Support: 1.3813.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3804.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3826 and 1.3918. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3813 and by 1.3931 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3804 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3940 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3839 and at 1.3905, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3872.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 5, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data because of Bank Holiday, and the US will release some economic data such as Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.51.

Resistance. 2: 102.31.

Resistance. 1: 102.11.

Support. 1: 101.87.

Support. 2: 101.67.

Support. 3: 101.46.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.46) and resistance 3 (102.51). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief


Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver rallies and produces a bullish morning star reversal candlestick as see here. The metal is poised to rally at least to $19.90/$20.00 levels before pulling back. Recommendations are to remain flat for now OR hold on to aggressive long position taken last week.

2. Support is at sub $18.90 levels, followed by $18.70/75, $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.00, followed by $20.40/50, $21.70/80, and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver bulls would want to take out $19.90/$20.00 levels for now before any meaningful pullback can take place.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat OR hold on to aggressive long positions taken earlier, stop is at break even, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold rallies last week as expected and discussed from sub $1,280.00 levels. This rally should continue till $1,330.00 levels at least for now. Subsequent dips could be bought. Recommendations for now is to remain flat or Hold on to aggressive long positions held earlier.

2. Support is at $1,270.00 for now, followed by $1,230.00/40, $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is at $1,330.00, followed by $1,350.00, $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold rally may continue till $1,330.00 levels and possibly $1,350.00/60.00 from here on. The bullish morning star candle needs to be respected.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now OR hold on to aggressive long positions, stop is at break even, target is at $1,330.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair is bouncing off the channel support and resistance at the moment, broadly between 141.40/50 to 142.50/60 for now. The pair is again at the support near 141.50 levels. A break here would be encouraging for bears and a subsequent break below 140.00 would confirm bearish resumption. Recommendations are to sell on the break of channel support.

2. Support is at 141.00, followed by 140.00, 138.50, 136.00 and lower while resistance is at 142.50, followed by 143.50/144.00 and 145.50 on the higher side.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY bears would want to break 141.00 levels for now. On the flip side, a bullish bounce here again, would enable prices to re-test 142.50.

Trade recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Sell on a break of the channel line support.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair has produced a bearish evening star at the close of last week as seen here. Implications from here remain on the down side, till prices stay below the 1.4880/1.4900 levels. Recommendations are to hold on to short positions from last week, risk remains at 1.4950/60. 1.4680/1.4700 should be in sight now.

2. Support is at 1.4650, followed by 1.4550, 1,4450, 1,4350 and lower while resistance is at 1.4950/60 followed by 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF is facing still resistance at 1.4900 levels for now. A counter trend may be under way towards 1.4700 levels.

Trade recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1.4950/60, target is at 1.4700 at least.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 5, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This is a bull market in spite of the volatile movement that was experienced last Friday. The support lines at 1.3850 and 1.3800 would cause some difficulties for the bears, especially when they try to push the price downwards. The target for this week is at the resistance line of 1.3900.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is in a bear market, plus the volatile movement that occurred on Friday did not succeed in overriding the bearish outlook. The USD/CHF is below the resistance level at 0.8800, going downwards. The first target for this week is at the support level at 0.8750. When the price succeeds in breaching the support level to the downside, it may then target another support level at 0.8700.

GBP/USD: The Cable remains in a bull market. The distribution territory at 1.6900 would soon be breached to the upside. This distribution territory has been challenged before the current minor pullback which has failed to take the price below the accumulation territory at 1.6850.

USD/JPY: This trading instrument has been difficult to trade recently. Swing and positional traders may need to wait for the momentum that is expected this week, before they open a position. The dominant bias in the market is currently neutral. The price broke above the supply level at 102.50, testing the supply level at 103.00. This has proven to be a false breakout because the price was unable to stay above the supply level at 102.50. It needs to break above this supply level and remain above it or below the demand level at 102.00 and remain below it before we can see a sustained breakout.

EUR/JPY: This market has been able to maintain the bullish bias on it. The bullish bias is not yet strong, but it would become noteworthy when the price breaks the supply zone at 142.00 to the upside or the demand zone at 141.50 to the downside.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX continues to bearish movements below the 79.70 level, so it is very likely that the USDX will fall to the support level of 79.19 this week. However, keep in mind that this support level is quite strong, so the USDX could perform a rebound at that level. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has made a bearish rebound in 200 SMA and now the USDX is trying to make a consolidation below the bearish trend line, so it is likely that the USDX will fall to the support level of 79.33. If the USDX does make a breakout at the level of 79.20, it's expected to fall to a support level of 78.95. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: The USDX remains below the 200-day moving average, so the USDX has formed a fractal above that level. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.39, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.13. For now, the USDX remains strong in the bearish bias. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.39, take profit is at 79.13, and stop loss is at 79.64.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The pair tried to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6850, but the GBP/USD remains stable in the current bullish bias. For now, more bullish movements above this support level would be expected, so it is advisable to follow the bullish trend. The GBP/USD is forming a lower high pattern and the MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD fell to the support level of 1.6841, where the pair made a bullish rebound. Now this pair is trying to find support in the bullish trend line. If successful and it makes a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6900, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound at 200 SMA, where the point of control is located, and now this pair is consolidating above the support level of 1.6850. However, if the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6800. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6900, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6950. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6900, take profit is at 1.6950, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for May 5-9, 2014 Trend News

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.

Viewpoint :

• The support will set at the level of 1.3800 and the double bottom is going to set at 1.3773.


• The EUR/USD pair has called for the bullish market from the price of 1.3800, because the price of 1.3800 is representing strong support.


• Preference is to buy above the support at 1.3803 with the first target at 1.3844 in order to test the weekly pivot point. Moreover, if the pair will be able to break the price of 1.3844, then it is going to continue towards 1.3890.


• However, the stop loss has always been in consideration thus it will be useful to set it below the last double bottom at the level of 1.3750 (notice that the major support on May 5, 2014 set at 1.3803).

Comment :

• The weekly pivot point at 1.3844 could hit the moving average (50).


• Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.


• As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the lprevioust day had a huge volatility.

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for May 5-9, 2014 Trend News

The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD pair.

Notes :

• If there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


• According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 1.6803 and 1.6920 this week.


• The resistance will be set at the level of 1.6940


• The support has already been placed at the price of 1.6793.


• We expect a new range about 135 pips this week.


• The key level will set at the level of 1.6660.

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