Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. USD/JPY is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.58 versus 80.77 early Thursday) on weaker-than-expected 0.3% increase in U.S. May retail sales (versus +0.7% forecast), surprise 4,000 increase in U.S. jobless claims to 317,000 in week ended June 7 (versus 310,000 forecast) and smaller-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. May import price index (versus +0.2% forecast). USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's export sales, lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields, flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid heightened risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 8.28% to 12.56; S&P 500 off 0.71% overnight) due to the escalating conflict in Iraq and weak U.S. data which dented hopes that the U.S. economy is poised to accelerate. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from the overbought zone, MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.20 and the second target at 102.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.55. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.70.

Resistance levels:

102.20

102.40

102.60

Support levels:

101.55

101.45

101.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in the bearish mode, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8955. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8940. The pivot point stands at 0.9015. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9035 and the second target at 0.9060.

Resistance levels:

0.9035

0.9060

0.9085

Support levels:

0.8955

0.8940

0.89

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-week high at 0.8699 on Thursday. The Kiwi sentiment is bullish after Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.25% and signaled more rate increases in coming months. NZD/USD is also supported by the negative dollar sentiment and the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the negative global risk sentiment and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8710 and the second target at 0.8745. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8560. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8525. The pivot point is at 0.8620.

Resistance levels:

0.8710

0.8745

0.8775

Support levels:

0.8560

0.8525

0.8475

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is undermined by the negative global risk sentiment and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.25 and the second target at 173.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.85. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.40. The pivot point is at 172.30.

Resistance levels:

173.25

173.90

174.75

Support levels:

171.85

171.40

171

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EUR/NZD analysis for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.5683 on an average volume according to the 4H timeframe. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe weak demand in the background, so buying at this stage looks risky. Since our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5665 has got broken, we may see possible testing the level of 1.5335. According to the previous price action, we have got a resistance level at the price of 1.5745 (previous swing low like resistance). Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5698

R2: 1.5738

R3: 1.5803

Support levels:

S1: 1.5568

S2: 1.5528

S3: 1.5463

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,277.00. As you can see in the graph, the price tested our resistance (swing low like resistance). We must wait to see what will happen around our resistance level, if the price breaks the level of 1,277.00, we may see possible testing the level of 1,283.00 (swing low like resistance). According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe weak demand, which is a sign that we may see potential bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,275.47

R2: 1,279.03

R3: 1,284.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,263.93

S2: 1,260.37

S3: 1,254.60

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying at this stage since the price is near resistance.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.5858

R2: 1.5789

R1: 1.5704

Current spot: 1.5662

S1: 1.5629

S2: 1.5566

S1: 1.5507

Technical summary:

Blue wave iii ended at 1.5566 (just above our target at 1.5550) and we should now see blue wave iv towards 1.5704 and maybe even higher towards 1.5789 before the final blue wave v lower is expected. In the short term we are looking for support at 1.5629, which we expect will protect the downside for the rally towards 1.5704, but if support at 1.5629 is broken, a more complex correction should be expected and we will have to allow a move closer to 1.5566 before going higher.

Trading recommendation:

Stay aside and wait for a more attractive entry.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 139.18

R2: 138.74

R1: 138.55

Current spot: 138.34

S1: 138.04

S2: 137.72

S3: 137.51

Technical summary:

We finally found the bottom of wave (b) of the triangle consolidation at 137.72 and wave (c) higher towards 140.01 and more likely even closer to 141.10 developing. Ideally we will now see support at 138.16 protecting the downside for a break above 138.55 confirming the next minor rally towards 140.01. However, only a break below 137.72 will invalidate our call for wave (c) higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 138.40 and will place stop at 137.65. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 138.16 with the same stop at 137.65.

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#USDX Technical analysis for June 13, 2014 Trend News

In our last couple of analysis we noted that the resistance at 81 was very strong and also the resistance by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 80.85 was also a pivotal point. In our previous analysis I noted that I was bearish as long as price was below 81 and that I was expecting a trend reversal to push price towards 80.

The Dollar index has broken short-term support at 80.60 and has moved below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This is a bearish sign confirming our view that more dollar weakness should be expected. The 80.90 price level is now a very important level that if broken upwards, bears should reverse their short positions to long ones. Until then we remain short.

The Dollar index is expected to continue to move lower towards the Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart that is found just above 80. So we remain bearish until we reach 80 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 78.90 to 81 is. Short-term support is found at 80.25 and we could see a pause of the decline at that level.

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Gold technical analysis for June 13, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,300 per our analysis. I was bullish from $1,240 and confirmed it when price broke out of the sideways triangle at $1,250. Our first target was the 38% retracement at $1,264 and the second target at $1,277 the 61.8% retracement. Both targets are achieved. The trend remains up. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart and above the trend line support.

Strong resistance is found at current levels. I prefer to take some profits at current levels and raise stop for the rest of my position. Stop should at least be the entry level or the Ichimoku cloud at $1,255. The trend line at $1,265 could also be used as a stop. If Gold price breaks above the 61.8% retracement, this will be a good sign that we are heading back again towards $1,300.

The Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart is found at $1,290-$1,295. We could see gold price touching that price level. Breaking above $1,300 will increase the chances of moving towards $1,330 to complete the last wave of the large triangle consolidation before the final move down to $1,000.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 13, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 13/06/2014 08:40 CET

Another marginal low has been made yesterday but the outlook has not been changed for this pair: still one more wave to the upside is missing on the larger time frames and possibly the upward movement might start from here. As I has mentioned before, the impulsive breakout from the golden channel to the upside is needed to confirm the beginning of the wave (iii) green of the irregular flat correction. Otherwise, the market might once again test the technical support zone at the level of 1.0821.

Support/Resistance:

1.0821 - Technical Support

1.0841 - Intraday Support

1.0868 - WS1

1.0888 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swing traders should consider opening buy positions from the level of 1.0870, with SL below the level of 1.0840 and TP at the level of 1.0888 with possible extensions above last swing high next week. First level to add to winning positions is at the level of 1.0905 breakout.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 13/06/2014 08:20 CET

The bottom for the wave B black looks finally to be in place and now the impulsive wave progression to the upside should start. Dynamic rebound from the lows suggests the market is in the wave one right now and a corrective cycle is due next. This scenario is possible as long as no new low is made. The key level is old supply breakthrough zone between the levels of 138.49 - 138.58 and then the nearby technical resistance is at the level of 138.74. A breakout higher will likely lead to weekly pivot test.

Support/Resistance:

137.70 - Swing Low

137.81 - WS3

138.24 - WS2

138.32 - Intraday Support

138.49 - 138.59 - Key Level

138.74 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swing traders should consider opening buy positions from the level of 138.32, with SL below the level of 137.69 and TP at the level of 139.56, with possible extensions above last swing high next week. The first level to add to winning positions is at the level of 138.74 and 139.15.

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