Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In H4 chart we can see that the price was about to continue its bearish move in case of breaking the support area of 170.70-171.00 yesterday and closing below it. Today and as shown on the H4 chart, the pair has already broken this support area and currently is trading below to continue its bearish trend. Therefore, we suggest more bearish signals now with the first target few pips above the support level of 170.00, then we should stop till testing this support level. In case of closing below this level, this gives us a new opportunity for more bearish move till reaching the support level of169.70 and closing below it.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (172.75) R2 (172.00) R1 (171.50), S1 (171.00), S2 (170.70), S3 (170.00).

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview

According to our yesterday's expectations, the price’s close below the Support level of 19.50 would give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Support level to trade below and open the way towards 19.20 as the first target, then the metal must test the Support level of 19.20 firstly to get more bearish move till reaching 18.90 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 19.20 cancels bearish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.00), R2 (19.75), R1 (19.50), S1 (19.20), S2 (18.90), S3(18.70).

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6766 and is now very likely that this pair will rise to the resistance level of 1.6851. However, this would still be forming a bearish pattern since the GBP/USD remains very strong in the current bearish bias. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6822, because this pair made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6762, where the 200 SMA is located. If successful, it's expected to to rise to the level of 1.6841. On the other hand, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6785 if the pair takes a bearish rebound to current levels. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: This pair has consolidated above the point of control and the support level of 1.6800. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6850, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6900. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD does a breakout in the point of control, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6750. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains below the 200 SMA, where the USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern to continue rising. If the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.11, next target would be the level of 80.62. For now, the USDX remains strong in the bullish bias. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is trying to get consolidated below the resistance level of 80.09, since the USDX found resistance above the level of 80.15. For now, when placing orders within the low range, caution is recommended as the USDX could perform bearish movements at any time. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX made a retreat after finding resistance near to the 80.35 level. Now, the USDX is trying to consolidate below the resistance level of 80.15. However, if the USDX manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise again to the level of 80.35. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.15, take profit is at 80.35, and stop loss is at 79.95.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, the GBP/USD pair found solid resistance that provided enough supply for two months until bullish breakout took place on May 1.

The recent lows at 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The daily chart shows successive bullish breakouts expressed above 1.6850 (the upper limit of a previous congestion zone), then above 1.6930 (the upper limit of the ongoing bullish wedge). The bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this breakout lost its bullish momentum during last week's consolidations.

Price levels around 1.6990 provided evident rejection. This paused the ongoing bullish momentum.

The lower limit of the bullish WEDGE was broken down on Friday showing a full-body bearish daily candlestick.

The bears applied significant bearish pressure at retesting of 1.6900 (backside of the broken wedge). This enhanced the bearish pull-back towards 1.6767 as expected.

The GBP/USD showed bullish recovery after testing of 1.6730 leading to daily closure again above 1.6767 enhancing the bullish momentum of the market.

As long as the ascending bottoms established at the uptrend around 1.6675 and 1.6775 remain intact, the market will keep its bullish momentum.

The bulls managed to record a higher value above the recent one at 1.6900. However, the ongoing market demand has been fulfilled around 1.6990 which led to price decline again.

A bearish impulse took place towards 1.6820-1.6775 thus forming the right shoulder of a possible Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.6830-1.6810.

The reversal wedge pattern applied enough bearish pressure to confirm the ongoing reversal pattern which got confirmed by breakdown of price zone of 1.6830-1.6810.

Projection targets of this pattern extends down to 1.6775, 1.6720 and 1.6690.

A bullish pull-back is taking place today. Price zone of 1.6830-1.6810 will probably offer a good SELL entry at retesting so price action should be watched.

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GOLD analysis for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around the price of 1,294.00, we are waiting for larger activity. As you can see in the chart, our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1,290.00 held successfully, and that caused price to start upward movement and test the level of 1,305.64. According to the Daily timeframe, we can observe strong bullish reactions in the background from our support 1,277.00 on higher volume, which is a sign that short-term selling looks very risky. According to H4 timeframe we can see weak supply, which is another sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I found potential resistance level at the price of 1,305.00 (swing low). If the price breaks the level of 1,305.00 on higher volume, we may see possible tetsting the level of 1,315.00 (previous swing high). Be careful with selling and watch for buying opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,304.72

R2: 1,308.54

R3: 1,314.73

Support levels:

S1: 1,292.34

S2: 1,288.52

S3: 1,282.33

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since our major support level at the price of 1,277.00 held successfully.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The market is continuing to show signs of strength following the break at the price of 0.8580. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair resistance has broken and was turned to support since April 30, 2014, Moreover, the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 0.8580. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.8580 with the first target of 0.8640 and continues towards 0.8675.


• On the other hand, if the trend can break this level and close below 0.8580, then it will be a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective, for that the market will indicate the bearish opportunity at the price of 0.8580. As a result, it will be a good sign to sell at this level, but it should be borne in mind the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts..

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The price of AUD/USD pair has set below the double top (0.9460) since April 8, 2014. Also, it should be noted that the price has formed a strong resistance level of 0.9420. Futhermore, this strong level has still been moving between 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 50% in H1 chart. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair has fallen from the level of 0.9460 extended further to as low as 0.9380 today. Hence, it is probably that the market will start showing signs of bearish market again in order to indicate the bearish opportunity from the level of 0.9460 to 0.9420 with targets towards the strong support around 0.9230. Meanwhile, the bears were forced to pull back at the level of this area, therefore this level will form strong support at 0.9230 in order to indicate a bullish opportunity above the support, so it will be a good sign to buy in the short term above the price of 0.9230 with the first target at 0.9325 and it might resume to the 0.9400 price.

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#USDX Technical analysis for May 16, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has continued higher towards 80.40 yesterday where the first short-term resistance was. Price pulled back, so there are increased chances of this pull back continuing lower towards 79.70. The Dollar index might have made a short-term top and we could see this move lower towards the Ichimoku cloud support.

The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud. Short-term trend is upward. Resistance is found at the 80.40-.60 area and support at 80-79.70. Currently I favor a pull back to re-energise bullish momentum. The most probable target for a pullback is 79.85-79.90.

In the daily chart above I see that price has stalled at the Ichimoku cloud where the strong resistance level is found as we mentioned yesterday. In yesterday's analysis we expected price to pause the rise inside the Ichimoku cloud and start a small pull back before a final break out above the Ichimoku and before we confirm the trend reversal. There are many signs that this trend is making an upward longer-term reversal. However I prefer taking long positions near 80 and below it when this pull back unfolds with 78.85 as stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6059

R2: 1.5985

R1: 1.5905

Current spot: 1.5895

S1: 1.5834

S2: 1.5785

S3: 1.5730

Technical summary:

We have seen a strong rally from the 1.5730 low. This could mean that a long-term bottom is in place. We only saw a slightly lower low at 1.5730, but we knew that we where in the very last stages of the decline from 1.7274 and it only was a question of time before the bottom would be found. As long as minor resistance at 1.5905 protects the upside, we still could see one last decline towards the ideal target at 1.5653, but with the low set at 1.5730, it is not necessary.

A break above resistance at 1.5980 and more importantly a break above 1.6179 will confirm that the bottom is in place and a new powerful rally is unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.5858 and will place our stop at 1.5575. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.5810 with the same stop at 1.5575 expecting to move it higher soon.

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Gold technical analysis for May 16, 2014 Trend News

The scenario where we can see the Gold price rise above $1,331 is losing points every day. There are now more chances to see Gold price break down below $1,270 and move to $1,200. Gold price has been rejected at the upper triangle price range and is trying to break below the short-term support area of the Ichimoku cloud at $1,290. Gold price looks weak and unable to challenge $1,315.

A break below $1,290 will push Gold price towards $1,280. A break below $1,280 will push Gold price towards the important lows of $1,275-$1,268 with increased probability of breaking them. As long as Gold trades below $1,315, we are bearish. We prefer being short if price is near $1,304-$1,307 with the $1,315 stop. If price goes to $1,280-85, we would prefer being long with the $1,270 stop reverse.

However, we are longer-term bearish and that is why taking a long position is a counter trend and only high risk traders should follow this strategy. Our preferred strategy is to remain short as long as price is below $1,310-$1,315. Our longer-term view sees Gold price near $1,100.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.37

R2: 139.88

R1: 139.42

Current spot: 139.32

S1: 138.75

S2: 138.12

S3: 137.36

Technical summary:

We have seen a minor five wave decline from 142.47 to end blue wave iii and we should look for a minor correction towards 139.88 before the next powerful decline towards 137.01 to end the red wave iii. It should be remembered that the correction during the third wave tends to be small or even sub-normal.

In the longer term we are still looking for a much bigger correction of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69, with the ideal corrective target coming in at 126.00.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 140.95 and keep your stop at 139.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell EUR near 139.88 with the same stop at 139.95.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 16, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD had hit the support line at 1.3650 before it rallied a little. The little rally has taken the price above the resistance line at 1.3700, but it should be halted at the resistance line at 1.3750. It is possible for the price to go downwards again and test the support line at 1.3650. When this happens, the support line might be breached to the downside as the price goes towards another support line at 0.3600.

USD/CHF: USD/CHF had topped the resistance level of 0.8950 before it pulled back. The pullback was halted at the support level of 0.8900. It is possible for the price to go upwards again and test the resistance level at 0.8950. When this happens, the resistance level might be breached to the upside as the price goes towards another resistance level at 0.9000.

GBP/USD: The downtrend on the Cable has been halted at the accumulation territory of 1.6750, but the ensuing upward bounce was also halted at the distribution territory of 1.6800. The price is expected to go further downwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the accumulation territory of 1.6750 again and probably breaking it downwards.

USD/JPY: This is a bear market, though the perceived strength in USD has prevented the pair from going down significantly like other JPY pairs. The price should go southwards more, thus breaking the stubborn demand level at 101.50 to the downside.

EUR/JPY: This crossed dropped seriously and tested the demand zone at 139.00. The price is still at the demand zone and could go further downwards. The indicators in the chart confirm the established southward bias.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair seems to have hit the fibonacci 0.618 support around the 139.00 levels as seen here. This fibonacci support is the retracement of rally between 136.00 to 144.00 levels as seen here. The pair can be expected to reverse and stage an impressive rally from here on. Recommendation is to remain long, risk remains around 138.50/60 levels.

2. Support is at 138.50, followed by 136.00, 134.00 and lower, while resistance is at 141.00, followed by 142.50, 143.50/144.00 and 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY could still recover from sub 139.00 levels and print fresh highs above 144.00 levels before reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at 138.50/60, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 16/05/2014 08:30 CET

This could have been little changed and the difference is in wave (iii) green bottom placement that currently is at the level of 1.0814. That means the current wave development looks like a triangle wave (iv) green with the first two waves already presented. . There are waves c, d and e green missing here, so we can expect a ranging market between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0835 until this corrective cycle is completed .

Support/Resistance:

1.0814 - Wave (iii) green low

1.0835 - Technical Support

1.0850 - Intraday Support

1.0886 - Intraday Resistance

1.0898 - Weekly Pivot

1.0925 - Top of the supply zone

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy stop positions if the level of 1.0891 is clearly broken with SL below the level of 1.0850 and TP at the level of 1.0925. Please notice that trading inside of a possible triangle formation is full of false breakouts and whipsaws.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 16/05/2014 08:50 CET

The current count is still very bearish and lower prices should be expected, but the chances are rising for a short-term upside bounce as the bullish divergence is building on the momentum oscillator on H1 time frame. That means the key level here to keep an eye on is at the level of 139.38 - 139.45 zone because any breakout above this zone will be the first clue that the corrective cycle has started. Moreover, any breakout above next technical resistance at the level of 139.87 would invalidate the impulsive bearish count. Otherwise more downside is anticipated with the fist target at the level of 138.86 with a possible extension to the level of 138.15.

Support/Resistance:

139.87 - Technical Resistance

139.38 - 139.45 - Intraday Resistance |Key Level |

138.97- Intraday Low

138.86 - WS1

138.15 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should open buy stop positions if the level of 139.46 is broken with SL below the level of 139.08 and TP at the level of 139.87.

Swing traders should still keep the running short positions as lower prices are still expected with SL slightly above the level of 140.20.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair again tests 1.5000 levels before reversing sharply. The pair currently trades around the mid 1.4900's and it is expected to continue drifting lower towards 1.4700 levels as seen here. Bulls have managed to take out important resistance at 1.4950/60 recently and the pair could produce a meaningful retracement. Recommendations are to remain short, risk remains at 1.5040.

2. Support is at 1.4780, followed by 1.4630, 1.4550, 1.4450 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure still remains constructive for bears to gain control till prices stay below 1.5040/50 levels. Rallies should fade around 1.5980 levels if reached.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 1.5045, target is open.

Good luck!

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Forecast and technical analysis of USDX for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Today traders eye building permits. Yesterday's data was mixed. The core CPI rose to 0.3% in April, the unemployment benefits claims in the week ending May 10 advanced to seasonally adjusted 297,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level, the industrial production declined in April. Federal Chairwoman Yellen delivered a speech, she applauded small businesses for helping in the economic recovery. She didn't say much about the monetary policy.

The US dollar faced resistance at the weekly upper trend line, 38.2 correction fib level from 82.67-79 levels, and daily 200 EMA levels. The weekly oscillators favor long side. If the price breaks 80.45, then it will spike up to 80.80, 81, 82.5 and 84 levels. On the down side, the initial support exists at 79.78 (this week's low) and 23.6 correction fib level and daily 50SMA level. We expect the price will come back to take the support and it will try to break the resistance level.

Weekly key level-

Support- 79.78

Resistance- 80.45

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