Technical analysis of Gold for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold seems to have received support from $1,280.00 levels now. The metal could possibly stage a rally from current levels towards $1,330.00 levels as shown here; but $1,270.00 levels should hold. Till prices stay above $1,270.00, expect bulls to rally higher towards $1,330.00 at least. On the flip side, a break here would drop prices towards $1,230.00/40.00.

2. Support is at $1,270.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is at $1,330.00, followed by $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold remains cautiously bullish till prices stay above $1,270.00 for now. However, a push higher through $1,330.00 levels would confirm that the trend is changed.

Trading recommendations:

A conservative approach is to remain flat while an aggressive trade setup is to remain long, stop is at $1,270.00 target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair is unchanged for now, oscillating between the channel support and resistance between 141.00/20 and 142.30/50 levels. The pair has just bounced off the channel support from 141.20 levels; and a push further would move towards 142.50 and 143.00 as seen here. Recommendations are to remain flat while an aggressive trade setup is to remain long with risk just below 141.00.

2. Support is at 141.00, followed by 140.00, 138.50, 136.00 and lower while resistance is at 143.50/144.00, followed by 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY remains cautiously bullish till prices stay above the channel line support seen here. Only a break below 141.00/140.00 would confirm that bears are back in control.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Aggressive setup is to remain long, set stop below 141.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 2, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 02/05/2014 07:30 CET

The market is trading in an intraday range zone between the levels of 141.75 and 142.00, but the overall bias is bearish. However, the current wave progression looks like the correction in wave (ii) green has not been finished yet and it might evolve into more complex and time consuming cycle. This means the risk of immediate impulsive wave progression has been decreased and now only a range breakout will be next clue about further wave development.

Support/Resistance:

142.50 - Wave 2 green Top

141.41 - WR2

142.14 - Invalidation Line

142.00 - Intraday Resistance

141.75 - 142.00 - Daily Range Zone

141.75 - Intraday Support

141.45 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders could try to catch some pips scalping this market if they open a sell stop order from the level of 141.73 with SL above the level of 141.00 and TP at the level of 141.45.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 02/05/2014 07:15 CET

The triangle idea has been invalidated and the market has made an irregular correction instead. So far the wave progression looks impulsive and it even might be the start of the fifth wave down, but to confirm this possibility, the market must break below the wave 3 red low. Otherwise, the market will stay in corrective wave 4 red range.

Support/Resistance:

1.0995 - Intraday Resistance

1.0980 - WS2

1.0954 - WS3

1.0952 - Intraday Support

1.0941 - Wave 3 Red Low

Trading recommendations:

As there is one more wave to the downside to be made, the short positions should be kept open. There is a possibility to add to the existing short positions if the level of 1.0940 is violated, with SL above the level of 1.0995 and TP at the level of 1.0900.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX is forming a higher low pattern below the 79.80 level. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.45, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.19. Howeve, it is expected to rise to the level of 79.85 if the USDX makes a bullish rebound at the current levels. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is trying to do a consolidation above the bearish trend line. However, the USDX is forming a higher low pattern, so it is very likely that the USDX will fall to the support level of 79.35 in the coming hours. The MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and into neutral territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 79.39. For now, the USDX is maintained within a low range below the resistance level of 79.64, so caution is advised when placing orders within this range. If the USDX does make a breakout at the resistance level, it's expected to rise to the level of 79.88. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.39, take profit is at 79.13, and stop loss is at 79.64.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD remains above the support level of 1.6851 and now this pair is trying to form a bullish pattern above that level. However, keep in mind that the GBP/USD may fall to the support level of 1.6851, but that would be part of this pair's corrective movements. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD has made a bearish rebound at the resistance level of 1.6900. It is very likely that this pair will find support in the bullish trend line. However, if the pair manages to make a breakout in the trend line, it is expected to fall to the support level of 1.6841. GBP/USD remains above the 200 SMA and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H1 chart: This pair is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6900. At the end of this week, GBP/USD is expected to continue conducting corrective movements for bullish bias. If the pair manages to consolidate above this resistance level, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6950. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6900, take profit is at 1.6950, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Technical analysis of gold for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Today's U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be watched closely by traders. The consensus estimate for today's figure stands at 215,000.

Review- UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

In the week ended April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 344,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 329,000 to 330,000. The 4-week moving average was 320,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 316,750 to 317,000.

Technical view-

The metal is struggling to sustain above the $1,285 levels. As of now the metal opened today's trades on a bearish note. We expect the metal to pull back to $1,290 and $1,292 levels in the evening session or BTST. On the down side the metal has taken support at $1,277 levels. A day close below the level $1,277, the next bearish wave will hit the metal badly for $1,262, $1,250, $1,240 and in the least case $1,220 or $1,213 levels. If this week closes above the $1,277, we will re-analyze the charts and will update the levels on Monday. It remains in the range bound within its limits.

For intraday perspective, the trading pattern is set in $1,277-$1,290, a break out either side will give a little room. On the down side, if the metal breaks $1,277, it will drift to $1,272, $1,268 and $1,262 levels. On the upside, it can shoot up to $1,292, $1,295 and $1,300 if sustained above $1,290 levels. RSI in the daily and the H4 chart has been indicating a sell call with some ups and downs.

For hourly traders, the trading pattern is set between $1,283-$1,285. Below $1,283, it looks weak for $1,281, $1,280 and $1,277.

Safe traders-

1. Buy above $1,285 for targets at $1,290.20, $1,292,$1,295, $1,297.60 and $1,301 levels. (above $1,290.20 only next targets will be achieved).

2. Sell below $1,277 for targets at $1,272.70, $1,268, $1,262 and $1,260 levels. (lower levels will come only below $1,268).

joseph.nz@mail2.instafxgroup.com

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Today's U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be watched closely by traders. The consensus estimate for today's figure stands at 215,000. Manufacturing picked up in April after consumer spending surged during the prior month, showing the U.S. economy is poised to expand in the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 54.9, the strongest so far this year, from 53.7 in March.

Technical view-

The pair has been in a consolidation for the last 2 weeks. It was facing selling pressure at higher levels. It is trading near the major resistance at 1.3906. This is the key level for the coming session. Until the pair crosses the 1.3906 on the downside, 1.36 is an open target. The RSI in the daily chart indicates limited upside and more noise in coming sessions. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.3865 levels. We expect a fall in price to start from Monday. A day close below the 1.38 levels, 1.36 is an open target for next week.

For intraday purpose, the pair will take support between 1.3856- 1.384 levels. We expect the pair to pull back to 1.3873, 1.3890 and 1.39. At higher levels traders can short. Sell on rise is the best strategy. On the down side, if the pair breaks the 1.3850, it will fall up to 1.3820 and 1.38 immediately.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be stalling ahead of 1.4900 levels. Since last 2 trading sessions, the pair has produced indecision candles; a bearish day here will confirm that it is heading towards 1.4700 levels at least. Recommendations are to remain short, risk remains at 1.4950/60 levels for now.

2. Support is seen at 1.4600/30, followed by 1.4450/1.4500, 1.4350, 1.4200 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4950/60 and 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that the pair should be headed towards 1.4700 levels from here on, before bouncing off for a potential bullish reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4960, target is 1.4700 at least.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 02, 2014 Trend News

Australia PPI annual rate (+2.5%) in the first quarter (expected +2.2%), the previous value (+1.9%); on a quarterly basis PPI +0.9% versus expected +0,6%, the previous value +0,2%.

The pair has been in a downtrend from 0.9460 levels. The pair is taking support at 200EMA in the daily chart. It seems it will pause its down trend and move to 0.9316 and 0.9376 initially. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 0.9277. A move above 0.9316 is a safe buy. On the down side, 0.9227 is the initial support to break, below this, 0.92 and 0.9183 are strong support levels. A day close below 0.918 (50daily sma), the next bearish wave will develop towards 0.8994, 0.8923 and 0.8890 levels. We are expecting a pull back today and on Monday. The RSI in the daily chart do not favor longs. But in the H4 cahrt, it signals a pull back call in 1 or 2 days. On an intraday basis, we can see the bull strength above 0.9312 levels.

On a positional basis, until the pair trades below the 0.9387, target is open for 0.91 levels.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 2, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: In spite of the struggle between the bulls and the bears, this pair has been able to maintain the bullish bias. The price is currently trading above the support line at 1.3850: the next target is at the resistance line at 1.3900. The resistance lines at 1.3850 and 1.3800 should pose a hindrance to possible bearish pulls along the way.

USD/CHF: The bias here is now southward. In recent times, the currency trading instrument has been unable to go upwards determinedly – hence the bearish signal. For the bearish signal to become more significant there is a need for the price to break the support level at 0.8750 to the downside; or at least, test it.

GBP/USD: The outlook here is northward. The Cable has been able to maintain the northward outlook on it for the past few weeks. The price has been moving upwards in a slow and steady manner. Therefore, it may eventually challenge the distribution territory at 1.6950.

USD/JPY: Though the USD/JPY is in an equilibrium phase, there would soon be a breakout in the market. Only scalpers or intraday traders could make some meaningful gains now, this kind of market likes to test the patience of swing and positional traders. The price would cross the supply level at 102.50 to the upside or the demand level at 102.00 to the downside.

EUR/JPY: This market has been able to maintain the bullish bias on it. The bullish bias is not yet strong, but it would become noteworthy when the price breaks the supply zone at 142.00 to the upside or the demand zone at 141.50 to the downside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 2, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate. The US will release the economic data too such as the Factory Orders m/m, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3936.

Strong Resistance:1.3927.

Original Resistance: 1.3914.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3901.

Target Inner Area: 1.3868.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3835.

Original Support: 1.3822.

Strong Support: 1.3809.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3800.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3822 and 1.3914. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3809 and by 1.3927 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3800 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3936 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3835 and at 1.3901, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3868.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 2, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Household Spending y/y, Unemployment Rate, Monetary Base y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Factory Orders m/m, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.86.

Resistance. 2: 102.66.

Resistance. 1: 102.46.

Support. 1: 102.21.

Support. 2: 102.01.

Support. 3: 101.81.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.81) and resistance 3 (102.86). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 02, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD

Review-

The CIPS/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' survey gave a better-than-expected reading of 57.3, up from 55.8 in March. The pound rallied to a fresh five-year high of 1.6921 against the US dollar. The pound ticked up again to near five-year highs after strong manufacturing figures boosted the UK economic outlook and raised expectations of a rate rise even earlier than anticipated - before May 2015.

Technical view-

The pair has been trading in an uptrend from 1.6465 levels. It almost completed its up move and ready for a correction. In yesterday's trading session, it completed our targets given at 1.6823. From today onwards, the sell on rally strategy will be activated in this pair. As of now, the pair opened today's trading on a bearish note. Positional sellers can wait for the confirmation of an exact point of sell. We expect next Monday or Tuesday the selling program will activate in this pair. Fundamentally the pair is in a very strong mode. Technically it is in selling for a couple of days in the long term, it has to go to new higher levels. On the higher levels it can try to touch 1.70 and 1.7083 levels. On the down side the pair has support at 1.6823, 1.6723 and 1.6692 levels. Positional traders, wait for a healthy correction and enter longs for new highs.

Intraday-

The pair is trading on a weak note, aiming at a downward move to 1.6876, 1.686, 1.6836, 1.6823 and 1.68 levels. The RSI in the H4 chart is indicating limited upside. So sell on rise, or at even the cmp (1.6890), traders can enter shorts. On the upside the pair has resistance at 1.6925. Buyers can buy above the 1.6925 level for 1.70 and 1.7083 levels.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 1, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish "Doji" indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support so far.

At the same time, several bullish attempts (including Tuesday's bullish spike) took place to step above 1.3850-1.3880. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

On the other hand, price level of 1.3800 has been providing bullish support so far. Yesterday's daily candlestick is another bullish engulfing daily candlestick that originates off this level.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

For the bulls, price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone which provided a valid BUY entry previously. It corresponds to the lower limit of the ongoing consolidation range.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for early exit from the current bullish position in case significant bearish momentum is expressed. . Stop loss for the bullish position should be advanced to 1.3770 to secure some profits.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 1, 2014 Trend News

Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was established during February and March.

The full projection target was hit at 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci) after the bears managed to fixate below 1.6600 (reversal pattern neckline).

The recent lows at 1.6465 as well as 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep fixing above 1.6630-1.6666 (corresponding to a prominent top established on January 24).

As long as the ascending bottom established at the uptrend around 1.6555 remaining intact, the market will keep up its bullish momentum.

The daily chart shows a bullish breakout trial being expressed above 1.6800-1.6850. The bullish momentum should be apparent now to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Otherwise, failure may occur.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6820 It's the most recently established top and the upper limit of the consolidation zone.

The bullish position taken around 1.6660 -1.6675 is still running in profits. Partial profits should be taken to avoid any possible reversal.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 1, 2014 Trend News

On March 24, by breaking down 1.5175, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but it also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 (61.8% Fibonacci).

As expected, trading above 1.4740 on a daily basis hindered further bearish progression giving some time for sideway consolidation for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci).

The state of indecision around 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.4750) was ended. The bulls initiated a bullish spike off 1.4725 and finally they were able to push above the upper limit of the 4H congestion zone.

A bullish spike above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) was executed on Tuesday. However, the bulls failed to pursue the bullish breakout leading to its failure.

On the other hand, the lower limit of the depicted triangle located around 1.4850 prevented a further bearish decline, providing considerable support for the pair for retesting of the price zone of 1.4950-1.5000 again.

The 4H chart shows an expanding triangle pattern being established at the current key levels. This is a bearish signal and an indicator for upcoming bearish pressure to be applied.

Overall, the daily chart suggests bearish tendency especially if the current daily candlestick manages to close below 1.4940. 1.5027

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 1, 2014 Trend News

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. The bears took advantage and pushed the pair towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart).

The USD/CAD pair returned to test the previous support zone around 1.0900 (50% Fibonacci level) which previously provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19.

Temporary daily closure below 1.0920 took place. However, it didn't take long time to get a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction on the next day, pushing the pair again towards 1.1000.

On the other hand, on the 4H chart, the price zone of 1.0995-1.1045 (38.2% Fibonacci of the most recent bearish swing) was expected to provide a valid SELL entry and it did.

The recent bearish spike that broke down 38.2% Fibonacci level, invalidated the bullish pressure which was being applied on 1.1000 for quite a long time.

The previously suggested bearish position is now running in profits. Stop loss should be lowered to 1.0995. The next TP level should be located at 1.0920 then 1.0880.

Price level 1.1020 remains the nearest resistance level for the pair. Any breakout above 1.1045 will invalidate the bearish tendency for the pair temporarily.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. Liquidity is thin as financial markets in several countries in Asia and Europe were shut today for a holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.50 versus 79.81 early Wednesday) on much weaker-than-expected 0.1% annual rate expansion in U.S. 1Q GDP (versus +1.1% forecast), smaller-than-expected 0.3% rise in the U.S. 1Q employment cost index (versus forecast +0.5%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.19% to 13.41; S&P rose 0.3% overnight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted record closing high of 16580.84) as stronger-than-expected rise in the U.S. Chicago PMI to 63.0 in April from 55.9 in March (versus 57.0 forecast) and ADP survey showing a bigger-than-expected 220,000 increase in U.S. private-sector jobs in April (versus +210,000 forecast) offset weak U.S. 1Q GDP data, while the Federal Reserve announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly bond purchases to $45 billion as expected and noted the recent pickup in economic growth which have slowed sharply during the severe winter.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics turning bearish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 101.90 and the second target at 101.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.90. The pivot point is at 102.65.

Resistance levels:

102.75

102.90

103.20

Support levels:

101.90

101.70

101.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. As financial markets in Switzerland were shut today for holiday. USD/CHF is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment. But CHF sentiment are dented by the surprise drop in Switzerland KOF economic barometer to 102.0 in April (versus forecast for rise to 107.2) from an upwardly revised 106.3 in March (originally reported at 106.1). USD/CHF losses also tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance and franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are turning bearish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8765. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8730. The pivot point stands at 0.8810. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8825 and the second target at 0.8845.

Resistance levels:

08825

0.8845

0.8860

Support levels:

0.8765

0.8730

0.87

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for MAY01, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the positive risk appetite, negative dollar sentiment, kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the concerns over China's economy and weaker commodity prices. Daily is chart mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8665 and the second target at 0.8690. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8570. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.854. The pivot point is at 0.8590.

Resistance levels:

0.8665

0.8690

0.8725

Support levels:

0.8570

0.854

0.85

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by the positive risk appetite and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports sales. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish near overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.15 and the second target at 173.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.40. The pivot point is at 172.10.

Resistance levels:

173.15

173.50

173.75

Support levels:

171.75

171.40

171

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6067 on volume above the average. We can observe that our Fibonacci expansion level of 100% at the price of 1.6244 held successfully and that caused price to go downwards. According to the daily chart, we can observe that supply overcoming demand just like we expected. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H timeframe chart, we can observe rejecetion on ultra high volume (buying climax) from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6160. Price broke our first support level (1.6095) and we may see possible testing of the level of 1.6000 (previous swing low).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6172

R2: 1.6203

R3: 1.6253

Support levels:

S1: 1.6072

S2 : 1.6041

S3: 1.5991

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GOLD analysis for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,279.56 on volume above the average. As we already posted in the previous analysis, we got submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,307.00 and that level held successfully. We can observe supply on volume above the average according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. There is also an buying climax in the background at the price of 1,298.00. Support levels are previous swing lows at the price of 1,277.00 and 1,267.00. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,307.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,315.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,296.70

R2: 1,299.80

R3: 1,304.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,286.70

S2: 1,283.60

S3: 1,278.60

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 1, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.8630 and 0.8603.


• Sell at 0.8660 (the weekly resistance 2) with the first target at the 0.8630 price, then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8590 in order to test this strong support (it should be noted that the price of 0.8590 had already formed the weekly pivot point last week).


• At the same time, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 0.8680.


• Buy above the price of 0.8570 (if the trend fails to close below it) with a target at 0.8650. It should also be noticed that the price of 0.8650 is representing the double top in H1 chart.

Intraday technical levels :

Date: 1/05/2014

Pair: NZD/USD

• R3: 0.8726


• R2: 0.8677


• R1: 0.8645


• PP: 0.8596


• S1: 0.8564


• S2: 0.8515


• S3: 0.8483

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 1, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The support has broken at the level of 0.8812. The last weekly pivot point has set at the same price (0.8817). So, the level of 0.8817 is going to become resistance on May 1, 2014. Additionally, the psychological level has set at the 0.8812 price because it is representing teh weekly pivot point. Also, the breakout was set at the 0.8812 price. Therefore, it will of the wisdom to sell below the price of 0.8812 with a target at 0.8770 today. Equally important, the price of the USD/CHF pair is going to try to break the minor support to call for the bearish market below 0.8770. Hence, the price will be continued towards the double bottom around the price of 0.8763. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be in account, thus it will be of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the 0.8830 price.

Notes :

• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


• The resistance will set at the level of 0.8812 this week.


• The double bottom is going to set at the 0.8763 price.


• The major support has already set at the level of 0.873.


• The area of 0.8740 is useful spot to buy in the long term.


• We expect a small range of 55 pips on May 1, 2014.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 1, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has broken below short-term support at 79.50 and is heading lower towards its lows at 79.20. In previous posts we mentioned that short positions were preferred at current levels than long ones. The trend is down also in the short term as the price has fallen below the Ichimoku cloud and continues to make lower lows and lower highs.

As long as the Dollar index remains below the Ichimoku cloud trend will remain bearish. There is increased probability that the index will continue lower below the 79.20 low and break the blue support area. This will be another sell signal with 78.50 as a short-term target. Resistance is found at 79.75-.85. However bears should not be overconfident as the area below 79.20 has very important long-term support levels.

The weekly chart above shows where the important long-term support levels are found. The dashed red lines are this support. Breaking below 78 will signal more weakness to come with very possible target the 75-76 area. Longer-term trend remains down. For this to change, the index should first break the blue downward sloping trend line and then break above the Ichimoku cloud at 81.50. As long as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the weekly level, bears will have the upper hand.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 1, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 01/05/2014 09:00 CET

The market is currently in a corrective cycle of wave 4 red. The possible shape for this cycle looks like a triangle for now and the according labeling has been provided on chart. The most important intraday resistance is at the level of 1.0982 and only a breakout higher this level would invalidate the triangle scenario. More downside is expected after the correction is finished.

Support/Resistance:

1.1031 - Weekly Pivot

1.1011 - WS1

1.0983 - Intraday Resistance

1.0979 - WS2

1.0954 - WS3

1.0949 - Intraday Support

1.0937 - 1.0941 - Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:

Short positions still should be opened from the current price levels with SL above the level of 1.0988 and TP at the level of 1.0900.

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Gold wave analysis for May 1, 2014 Trend News

The more time Gold price remains below the blue downward sloping trend line resistance, the more possible it is to witness a downward spike breaking support levels and pushing price to $1,250 or even lower. Gold price remains in a down trend. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Bulls are weak and unable to push price above $1,300 where the resistance is found. On the other hand, bears are pushing the price slowly but steadily lower towards support at $1,275-80.

Gold price remains inside the red Ichimoku cloud. This is not bullish. Short-term trend is neutral but with a downward bias. The support at $1,275 is like a magnet now. Price is moving towards it and if support holds, we should anticipate a bounce above $1,300 at first.

The daily chart above shows clearly our preferred wave scenario. However for this to happen we should see at least one daily close below $1,275 or a confirmed intraday break below $1,268. Gold price is weak. Price is still below the Ichimoku cloud. If support at $1,275 holds, we should expect a bounce towards $1,310-15. Overall, we remain bearish in the long term.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 1, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: By all means, this is a bull market and short trades would be illogical at present. The price is staying above the support line at 1.3850, going towards the resistance line at 1.3900. The aforementioned support line is thus a barrier to any possible southward pulls along the way.

USD/CHF: In reality, this pair has been weakened because of the weakness in the Greenback itself. There is a ‘sell’ signal in the chart – for the trend is bearish, and the price is below the EMAs 11 and 56. The Williams’ % Range is going towards the oversold region, which means the market lacks stamina.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is a strong pair, and with the ability to maintain its bullish outlook. It is no wonder that the price is trading above the accumulation territory at 1.6850. The easy target is at the distribution territory of 1.6900. In spite of the public holiday in some parts of Europe, we can expect certain fundamental figures in other parts of the world: The figures would have an impact on the market.

USD/JPY: On this currency instrument, there is a supply level at 102.50 and a demand level at 102.00. Moreover, it can be seen that the market is generally in an equilibrium phase. A breakout is expected soon, and when it occurs, it is more likely to be in favor of the bears, as there is a short-term southward indication established by the price action.

EUR/JPY: This is a strong cross: the price is currently testing the supply zone at 142.00 and it may breach it to the upside. The RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the upside. Long trades are currently sensible.

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