U.S. Dollar Index ready to start new upward move Trend News

The U.S. Dollar index has made a downward pull back as expected and tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 83.25. Although it broke below that level, it came back up without breaking the important low at 82.95. Now that the downward correction has retraced the maximum usual size of the previous upward move, we think it is time to start a new upward move that will give a new high above 83.72.

Long poitions are preferred with the recent low(83.09) as a short term stop. First short-term resistance is the 83.40 pice level. It seems like prices are starting a bullish trend pattern of higher highs and higher lows, but it is still too early for that conclusion.

The dollar index as shown above in the 4h chart has held prices above the support of the 34 candle MA. This is upward bounce from support and the large candle tails are a positive for bulls signal that short term may be reversing again upwards. Holding above the 83 level will re-inforce bullish trend andpush the index higher. Concluding we now are bullish with 83 as stop and target at least a retest of the 83.70 level. We think it is most probable to see a new high towards 84-84.20.

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Gold to test 1,215-1,230 support Trend News

Gold is currently trading at 1,250. Yesterday it tried to break above recent highs but got rejected at the 1,260 resistance level. Now it is trending lower as expected for wave C to complete near the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We are short with 1,259 stop and target at least 1,232 or even 1,215.

We stick to the strategy of selling near the highs with 1,269 stop and targeting the low 1,200's. We believe that a pull back towards that level will be given shortly. The downward move could accelerate when and if prices break below the recent low at 1,236. The first part of the decline from 1,266 to 1,236 was $30. The target of the decline that started from 1,260 is 1,230 for a 100% extension and 1,212 if the extension is 1.68 times the first decline. So both targets are within our Fibonacci support levels and most possible level to see another bottom.

The possibility for prices to continue rising from this level and make a new high above 1,266 is not very high. The form and pattern of the rise is overlapping and not impulsive. We always give a lot of attention to the form of every move, because it is a characteristic that hides many information. Concluding, the upward move from 1,236 does not convince us that there is a short term potential to make new high above 1,266. On the other hand, we believe that we should first see another downward pull back towards 1,215-30 area.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 4, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6823

R2: 1.6778

R1: 1.6735

Current spot: 166.85

S1: 1.6646

S2: 1.6600

S3: 1.6550

Technical overview:

This correction has become almost impossible to work out. The most likely Elliott wave formation is the price-action over the last week with a new triangle developed as a new minor x-wave. This possible triangle is likely to have finished with the break below 1.6675 the odds now favors the downside, for a continuation towards the support-zone between 1.6578 - 1.6600 and a break below here will confirm a decline towards our ideal target for this X-wave at 163.88. Resistance is now found at 1.6778 and more importantly at 1.6823, which should protect the upside. A break above 1.6823 will shift the x-wave triangle into a b-wave triangle and call for a rally towards 1.6909, before lower again.

Trading recommendation:

We are neutral, but will sell EUR at 1.6720 with a close stop at 1.6785. We will place our take profit at 1.6450 if the order is filled.

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EUR/JPY Elliott Wave analysis for July 4, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 131.12

R2: 130.81

R1: 130.28

Current spot: 129.79

S1: 129.41

S2: 129.06

S3: 128.65

Technical overview:

Yesterday we moved a little higher, than our expected resistance at 130.69 (the high came in at 130.80), before the floor was dragged away under this cross. The decline from 131.12 down to 128.65 has all the earmarks of an impulsive decline, therefore we should only be looking for upside corrections and impulsive declines for now, as the correction from 128.65 seems to be over, we will now be looking for a very dynamic and powerful decline towards at least 126.30 (where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i) in wave iii of C. In the short term, a break below 129.41 will confirm that wave iii is developing for the decline towards at least 126.30 and maybe even lower. In the short term, we would like to see resistance at 130.05 and, more importantly, resistance at 130.28 protecting the upside for a break below 129.41.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 130.25 and will move our stop lower to 131.20. If you do not have short positions on EUR yet, then sell at a break below 129.41 with the same stop.

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