Thursday 17 July 2014

#USDX Technical analysis for July 18, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. The Dollar index is making a bullish flag and once it breaks above 80.60 I expect the upward move to reach 80.80-81.


usdx.jpg

The Ichimoku cloud is below the price supporting it. 80.25 and 80.15 are support levels and should hold for the up trend to remain valid. A pull back towards these two support levels should be bought and as long as price is above 80 we should prefer long positions.


usdxd.jpg

The daily trend remains bullish. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and I expect to see another move higher towards at least 80.85-81 where the previous top is. The intermediate-term trend is bullish and as long as the daily chart is above 80 we remain bullish.


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Gold wave analysis for July 18, 2014 Trend News

In yesterday's post I mentioned that I was expecting Gold price to move towards th 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as 5 waves down were complete and 3 waves up were expected. 3 waves up has followed and price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.goldh4.jpg


Gold price is moving according to our plan. The 5 wave decline is followed by a 3 wave upward move and I now expect at least one more 5 wave decline that will bring Gold price below $1,290 and towards the long-term important support level at $1,270 where the big triangle boundaries are found.


goldd.jpg

Breaking below $1,270 will increase the chances of our bearish scenario where we expect price to fall towards $1,000 as wave 4 is complete and wave E of the triangle has ended at $1,346. I remain bearish as long as we trade below $1,346. Short-term resistance is found at $1,330 and support at $1,305.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYDaily.png


The pair is trying its fortune near the crucial support levels. The pair hit the 50 WSma and managed to close above that. The pair rejected at 20 WDma and again pushed lower. The nearest strong support at 100.76 levels, below this, we can see strong support at 100.20 (61.8 fib level) and the 100 mark. The short-term trend will turn more negative below 100 towards 99-98.50 levels (80.0 fib level).


Support 100.76, 100.


Resistance 101.64, 101.85, 101.91.


1405658837_USDJPYH4.png

For an intraday basis, the pair is trading below the hourly moving averages. The pair has the nearest support at 101.07 and 100.76 levels. Until the pair trades below 101.56, it looks a bit weak.


Traders can buy with sl 101.


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Technical analysis of Gold for July 18, 2014 Trend News

GOLD


GOLDDaily.png

The US housing data and Malaysian Airlines crash pushed gold towards the 61.8 fib level in yesterday's trade. In early Asia's session, it exactly touched the 61.8 fib level. We expect the metal to correct a bit, until it breaches the $1,324.50 levels. The metal is trading below the 20 DSma, which adds fuel to the bears. On the downside, it has support at $1,313, $1,311 (200ESma), $1,303 (200 DSma) and $1,291.50 (50DSma) levels.


GOLDH4.png

For an hourly trading the metal has initial resistance at $1,318.80 (20 DSma), a 4-hour high. On the downside, it has support at $1,314.40 (8 hr low) and 34 HSma, $1,312, $1,307 (35 HDema) and $1,304.60 (21 HSma).


· A day close below $1,291, the short-term trend turns negative towards $1,285, $1,275 and $1,258.


· A breach above $1,324.50, it can extend its rally up to $1,331.50, $1,346, $1,360 and $1,375.


· Today close above $1,311, the bulls will have an upper hand.


Support: $1,314.40, $1,312, $1,307.


Risky- Buy above $1,318.50.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Current Account. The US will release the economic data too such as the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3583.

Strong Resistance:1.3575.

Original Resistance: 1.3562.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3549.

Target Inner Area: 1.3517.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3485.

Original Support: 1.3472.

Strong Support: 1.3459.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3451.
DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3472 and 1.3562. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3459 and by 1.3575 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3451 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3583 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3485 and at 1.3549, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3517. Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the US will release some economic data such as Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 101.74.

Resistance. 2: 101.54.

Resistance. 1: 101.34.

Support. 1: 101.10.

Support. 2: 100.90.

Support. 3: 100.70. DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (100.70) and resistance 3 (101.74). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of Silver for July 18, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver remains vulnerable for a correction towards $19.80/$20.00 levels at least before the ongoing rally continues. $21.40 is intermediary high for now, and one can initiate short positions as aggressive setups. Risk remains above $21.60.


2. Support is seen at $20.00 levels, followed by $19.50/80, $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $21.70, followed by $22.30 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver is also in a bull run till prices remain above the $18.60 mark.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat or initiate short positions, stop is at $21.60, target is at $20.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for July 18, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has rallied through $1,324.00 ;eve;s before pulling back. The metal could print highs around the $1,328.00 levels before reversing lower. Recommendations are to exit long positions now and remain flat.


2. Support is seen at $1,260.00 levels, followed by $1,240.00, $1,230.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,350.00/60, followed by $1,388.00 and higher.


3. The structure indicates that Gold has turned bullish till prices stay above $1,240.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Exit long positions. Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 18, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF prints fresh highs at 1.5400 levels and pulls back sharply as seen here. The pair has produced a bearish engulfing candlestick signal indicating that the next move may be lower. Short positions could be initiated between 1.5360/70 levels, risk remains at 1.5440.


2. Support is at 1.5225 levels, followed by 1.5150, 1.4950, 1.4780 and lower while resistance is at 1.5400 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF could drop lower in a corrective manner. Only a break below 1.5225 would be bearish.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate short positions around 1.5350/70, stop at 1.5440, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

1405649627_GBPJPYDaily.png


The pair drifted to the previous support at 172.94 in yesterday's session. Buy today in Asia's session, it drifted to 172.77 and pulled back immediately. The 80.0 fib level held this time. On the down side, it has strong support at 172.50 (50DSma) and 172.30 (June 30 low). On the north side, it has resistance at 173.50 (30 DSma), 173.80 (20 DSma) and 174.53. Until the pair trades below 174.53, on the down side, we can expect 172.50, 172.30 and 172 levels.


Support zone 172.50, 172.30, 172.


Resistance 173.50, 173.80, 174.55.


A day close below 172.50, we expect some more selling pressure will add to this pair, the results of the southern journey on the short-term basis.


GBPJPYH4.png

On an hourly basis, the pair is trading below the hourly moving averages. The pair has support at 172.50, 172.30 and 172 levels. Until the pair trades below the 173.87 (21HSma) levels, we can expect the pair to trade in the 'selling the rally' strategy. In Asia's session the pair is trading at 172.82 levels. The pair favors pulling a bit back from the oversold levels.


We recommend to buy at cmp 172.82 and on a dip at 172.50 for targets at 172.95, 173.16, 173.33, 173.40, and 173.60, sl 172.30 on a closing basis.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

EUR/JPY


Review- In yesterday's article we recommended to sell to a target at 136.87, the pair made a low of 136.68 levels.


Technical view-


EURJPYDaily.png

The pair drifts to a five-month low trading at 136.83 levels.


In the weekly chart, the pair hits the 50 WSma and trading below that.


In the daily chart, the pair is trading below the daily-, weekly- and medium-term moving averages.


On the down side, the pair has support at 136.20-136 levels. If the euro hits the 136 level, gates to a steep fall to 135.50, 134.20, 132.40 (200DSma) and 131.20 levels will open. The weekly RSI is traveling to the South. But the daily RSI is oversold and hourly RSI is in extremely oversold conditions.


Support 136.20-1.36, 134.20, 132.40.


Resistance 137.75, 138.70, 140.


EURJPYH4.png

For the hourly trading purpose, the pair is trading below the hourly moving averages. The pair has resistance at 137.40, 137.77 levels. The hourly momentum oscillators are indicating an extremely oversold signs. We expect the pair to take support at 136.60, if not it can extend its fall to 136.20.


Safe traders can buy at 136.25 with sl 136.


This trade involves high risk, not suitable for every trader.


Those who would like to take a small risk, can try this for a target at 136.60, 1.37 and 137.40.


A day close below 136, it can fall to 134 initially. Sell again below 136.


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Daily analysis of USDX for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains above the 200 SMA without major changes, although the USDX is trying to form a pattern for a bullish breakout at the resistance level of 80.62. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 81.00. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX is making a bullish consolidation above the support level of 80.35, so it is very likely that the USDX rises to the resistance level of 81.02. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 81.35, where's a bullish trend line. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX continues to find resistance at the level of 80.59, but it is likely to make a pullback and fall to the support level of 80.35. If the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.59, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.73, which would be the next target bullish road. The MACD indicator is oversold.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the support level is at 80.59, take profit is at 80.73, and stop loss is at 80.45.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD continues to fall and is trying to get close to the support level of 1.7000. If the pair manages to consolidate below that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6851 in the medium term. However, the GBP/USD remains strong in the bullish trend, although the resistance level of 1.7169 is very strong. The MACD indicator is negative territory.


GBPUSDDaily.png


H4 chart: This pair is trying to fall to the support level of 1.7062, where the pair could make a breakout and fall to the support level of 1.6995. If GBP/USD manages to make a bullish rebound on the 200-day moving average, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.7179. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD is consolidating below the 200-day moving average, so far, the next target would be the support level of 1.7050. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.7000. For now, it is likely that the GBP/USD will try to strengthen the bearish trend. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.7050, take profit is at 1.7000, and stop loss is at 1.7100.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 17, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


'Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a one-week high at 101.79 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid the positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.03% to 11.0; S&P 500 rose 0.42% to close at 1,981.57 overnight) as stronger-than-expected China 2Q GDP growth upgrades outlook for the global economy, raft of upbeat news from U.S. companies and Fed Chairwoman Yellen in her second day of Congressional testimony telling lawmakers that asset valuations in general are not out of line with historical norms. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.53 versus 80.38 early Wednesday) on comments from Yellen that U.S. interest rates could rise sooner than expected if figures for inflation and jobs continue to improve; stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. NAHB housing market index to six-month high of 53 in July from 49 in June (versus 50 forecast), higher-than-expected U.S. June PPI of +0.4% on-month (versus +0.3% forecast), Federal Reserve Beige Book indicating that the labor market is improving across the U.S. But the USD sentiment is dented by weaker-than-expected 0.2% on-month rise in U.S. June industrial production (versus +0.3% forecast) & lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 79.1% (versus 79.2% forecast). USD/JPY upside move is also limited by Japanese export sales; lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the yield curve flattened overnight.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting positive as stochastics is in bullish mode, MACD is turning bullish.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 101.85 and the second target at 102.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.05. The pivot point is at 101.40.


Resistance levels:

101.80

102.05

102.25


Support levels:

101.20

101.05

100.80


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 17, 2014 Trend News

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a one-month high at 0.8989 on Wednesday. The CHF sentiment is dented by the drop in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to the 18-month low of 0.1 in July from 4.8 in June. USD/CHF is also supported by the positive dollar sentiment and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is in the overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8910 and the second target at 0.8895. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9015. The pivot point is at 0.8950.


Resistance levels:

0.9

0.9015

0.9035



Support levels:


0.8910

0.8895

0.8865


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 17, 2014 Trend News

NZDUSDM30.png


Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting three-week low at 0.8687 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the softer-than-expected New Zealand 2Q CPI which dented odds of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, weak dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and the positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential and the positive risk sentiment. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day MA.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8650. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8630. The pivot point stands at 0.8725. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then, it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8745 and the second target at 0.8785.


Resistance levels:

0.8745

0.8785

0.8815


Support levels:

0.8650

0.8630

0.86


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 17, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive risk sentiment. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is nearly at the oversold zone; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 173.20. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.85. The pivot point stands at 174.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.55 and the second target at 175.15.


Resistance levels:

174.55

175.15

175.40



Support levels:
173.20

172.85

172.35


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 17, 2014 Trend News

2014-07-17-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5636


R2: 1.5613


R1: 1.5599


Current spot: 1.5580


S1: 1.5559


S2: 1.5531


S3: 1.5511


Technical summary:


The correction we where looking for became slightly larger than expected, but the impulsive rally from 1.5398 should soon be resumed for a move towards 1.5636. Once at 1.5636, look for the first serious correction. This correction will likely take us lower to 1.5511 and maybe even slightly lower, but at no point should the low at 1.5398 be taken out, as that will invalidate the current bullish count.


Trading recommendations:


We are long in EUR from 1.5425 and will move our stop higher to 1.5510 and move stop-profit to 1.5625. If our stop-profit target is hit, we will pace a new EUR-buy order at 1.5525 with a stop at 1.5395.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 17, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 17/07/2014 11:30 CET


The 50%Fibo level has been rejected on the news event yesterday. So, the market has started to move lower and broken out of the golden channel. It is very possible that the top for black wave 2 is in place but to confirm this scenario, the market must fall below the old brown wave X low at the level of 1.0634. On the other hand, only a sustained move above the level of 1.0794 invalidates the impulsive bearish count.


Support/Resistance:


1.0793 - 50%Fibo


1.0786 - WR1


1.0746 - Intraday Resistance


1.0723 - Intraday Support


1.0708 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Swing traders and day traders should consider opening sell orders at the level of 1.0746 with SL above the level of 1.0794 and TP at the level of 1.0634.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2014 Trend News

1405589648_2014-07-17-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.67


R2: 137.54


R1: 137.44


Current spot: 137.38


S1: 136.74


S2: 136.54


S3: 136.22


Technical summary:


The expected decline towards the next downside target at 135.49 is unfolding nicely. In the short term, we are looking for resistance at 137.67 for the next decline lower to 136.74 on the way lower to 136.22 and 135.49. We still expect that the downward move will accelerate even more than we already have seen. We would like to see a firm break below 136.74 soon.


Trading recommendations:


We are short in EUR from 138.95 and will move our stop lower to 138.10. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.67 or upon a break below 137.22 with the same stop at 138.10


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 17, 2014 Trend News

audusdh4.png

Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair rose from the strong level of 0.9301 and extended further to as high as 0.9374 yesterday, but it has closed at the 0.936 level today. It should be noted that support will form at 0.9337 because this level has also formed tripple bottom. Furthermore, the price set above 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels months ago. For that, we expect a saturation around the level of 0.9330 or 0.9340. Hence, the market is likely to start showing the signs of a bullish bias again from this spot in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.9337 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels ib H1 chart). Accordingly, buy above the level of 0.9337 with the first target at 0.9380 besides it will call for uptrend in order to continue bullish towards 0.9435 in coming hours. On the other hand, if the bulls are forced to pullback below the level of 0.9340 and sellers can break this level, therefore the best solution to set a stop loss at the price of 0.9283.


audusddaily.png

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 17/07/2014 11.10 CET


The downward impulsive wave progression is unfolding as anticipated and the marked has entered the bearish zone. The intraday key level for bears is the price zone between the levels of 137.48 - 137.62, that will be acting as a technical resistance level. Please, notice that the market is on the level of weekly pivot support and at the level of equal legs geometry, which can be a further clue that the last wave to the downside is now completed. This would mean all the five waves now are in place and an upside corrective cycle might be in progress soon.


Support/Resistance:


136.67 - WS2


137.17 - WS1


137.48 - 137.62 - Technical resistance |key level |


138.00 - weekly pivot


Trading recommendations:


All swing and day traders that had open sell positions should close them now or use the trailing stop in case the last wave 5 purple would be an extended one. In that case, the target would be at the level of 136.67.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair resistance was broken and it turned to support at the level of 1.3503, as well as the same level is coinciding with the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart. Therefore, the pair has already formed a strong support at the 1.3500 level. But it should be noticed that a minor support will be set at the level of 1.3636 around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart too. Moreover, the price of the EUR/USD pair could close neither below 1.3500 nor 1.3475. Additionally, it should also be noted that the price has still been moving between the double bottom (1.3503) and 1.3578. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for the uptrend from the level of 1.35. For that, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.35 with the first target of 1.3550 and continues towards 1.3571 in order to try to test the weekly resistance 1. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, then the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 1.3475. Thus, the price will call for a bearish market in order to go further towards 1.3413.



eurusdh4.png


Notes :



  • Support will set at the level of 1.3500.

  • The minor resistance had already placed at the 1.3578 level today.


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#USDX Technical analysis for July 17, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has held support at 80.15 and has broken above short-term resistance at 80.25. It is near our short-term target of 80.60-80.70. The trend remains bullish both at intraday and daily levels.The Ichimoku cloud provides support for the bullish trend as the price is making higher highs and higher lows.


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The recent upward move from 80 is the same as the first upward move from 79.75. The price has made a new high so far, but it has reached the equality target. If the price is not extending the upward move, then we should see a pullback towards the support area shown in the chart. The Ichimoku cloud below the price tells me that the short-term trend is supported. 80.45 is short-term support. If broken, we should expect a pullback towards 80.30 at least and possibly next to 80.20.


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The daily chart shows my bullish pattern unfolding towards my target of 81.75. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and this gives bulls some hope. If the Dollar index manages to break above the previous high at 81, then I will be very sure to expect 81.75 and probably higher. In general, I'm Dollar bullish.


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Gold Wave analysis for July 17, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price is making an upward move as we expected in the analysis I posted yesterday. 5 waves down were complete yesterday and as I mentioned in yesterday's analysis, an upward bounce towards the 61.8% retracement is very possible.goldh4.jpg


As shown in the 4 hour chart above, we are now heading towards the first important resistance of the 38% retracement where we also find wave 4 of a lesser degree. This is a very common area for retracements. So, I believe the market will certainly see the price over $1,310. Besides, the upward correction could unfold even towards $1,324. The 61.8% retracement is at $1,324 and this is our target. Since this upward move is after a 5 wave decline, we expect another 5 wave decline to follow as soon as this bounce is over.


goldd.jpg

The Gold price could have completed wave 4 and is now starting a new downward move that will bring the Gold price towards $1,000. I'm bearish concerning Gold as long as the price is below $1,391. A short-term stop for bearish positions is at $1,346. Our bearish scenario will have more chances of success once we break below $1,285 and $1,240.


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