Friday 26 October 2012

Fundamental Analysis For October 26, 2012 Trend News

The data on U.S. GDP for the third quarter is just published. The 2% growth shows modest but sustained recovery in the world's largest economy just few days before the presidential election.


The first impact, as reflected in the Dow Jones index futures was very positive. It left its quote, in principle, the uptrend line in weekly chart of 13 months, and the breakdown could mean a change in direction of the index in the medium term.


Also, the data favored, at least in the minutes after publication, to the European currencies. They are mixed against the dollar.


While the euro plummets and touched 1.2880 the British pound is reaching highs of several days, driven by the first positive UK GDP in four quarters published on Thursday.


However, today's data could unify the behavior of leading currencies against the dollar, which in turn, would fall in good shape in the American session if, as expected, NYSE actions take bullish strength.


However, as shown and as has occurred throughout this month, the prices of the major pairs move very cautiously, in very narrow ranges, giving good opportunities in the short term, but longer trends jolting.


The consumer confidence data issued by the University of Michigan will be published at 9:55 shaping trends that are likely to begin to take shape with the opening bell for the U.S. trading session.


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GBP/JPY Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for October 26, 2012 Trend News


Overview


The H4 chart demonstrates today that the pair takes a downward move after its failure to break the Resistance level of 129.75. Currently, the pair is trading between the Support level of 128.40 and the Resistance level of 129.05. Given that the pair continues its bearish move and manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, we will receive a strong indicator for more bearish signals which will enable the Support level of 127.80 as a level target. Then we should wait for breaking of this Support level to continue the downward move and the way towards the Support level of 127.10 will be open.

On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Support level of 128.40 and bounces from it, it may reverse the bearish move taking an upward move enabling the Resistance level of 129.05 again. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to provide new bullish signals. In case the pair is able to break the Resistance level and closes 4H above, we will get a bullish strength providing new buy signals enabling the Resistance level of 129.75 as a level target. Based on the given H4 chart, the technical indicators provide sell signals, but as long as the Support level of 128.40 is unbroken, the upward move is still expected invalidating the bearish outlook.


Resistance and Support Levels


R3 (130.00)

R2 (129.75)

R1 (129.05)

S1 (128.40)

S2 (127.80)

S3 (127.10)


Trading Recommendations


According to the previous analysis, we recommend selling after breaking the Support level of 128.40 and closing 4H below with TP 127.75; SL closing 4 hours above the Support level will be appropriate.


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Silver Prepares For A Rally. Buing Intraday Dips Recommended Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


It seems that silver is retracing yesterday’s rally through 32.25 levels. It is expected that 31.50 level should be held as well as intermediary support; while 30.20 level is strong support for the metal. Next resistance comes in at 32.50 level as it was depicted above. Immediate bullish target for the metal is getting past the 32.50 level before taking on the lined up resistance levels till 35.00. A bullish reversal from here on (31.50 level should be held now), would take the metal comfortably past the 35.00 level towards 37.00 and higher. Long for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Stay long for now, stop at 31.00, and target open. Intraday dips are buying opportunities.


Good Luck!


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Gold Setting Up For A Rally. Buy On Dips Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Believe it or not, gold maybe setting up for an aggressive rally taking out resistances lined up higher. The bottom line is 1,690.00 and it should be held. Looking into the chart story for the last 24 hours; the yellow metal raced through 1,715.00 level during the present retracing. The lows are being held well till now and a positive/constructive reaction is expected. Immediate bullish target for gold is 1,730.00 level by today or Monday. It is further emphasized that 1,690/95 levels should be held for this count to be true. Bullish for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold long positions taken earlier. Stop at 1,680.00. Target open.


Good Luck!


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EUR/CHF: Technical Analysis (Long Term) for October 26, 2012 Trend News

Forecast:

At 1.2 / 1.206 a strong level (Support) will be formed providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 1.2270 level. Stop loss is to be placed below 1.1850.



Overview:


EUR/CHF: The market is still showing signs of strength following the break above 1.2000, now it could rebuy at the spot of 1.2060. Therefore, it will turn to a strong support. In such case, a stronger rise should be seen towards 1.2270 resistance for confirmation. Moreover, the trend is still above 50% Fibonacci retracement level, thus it will be a good sign to buy above 1.2 (rebuy at 1.2060), and sell below 1.1950.


Types of Analysis:


- Fundamental analysis: the Swissie is also quoted amid the promise to “buy unlimited euro” in order to support this market.

- Technical analysis: on a daily chart the level of 1.2 coincides with the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels), then it indicates a bullish market.

- Sentiment analysis: psychological level is at 1.2000, in this case one should be patient to keep the trade till the end.

- Money management: always invest 3% - 7% of the capital (composite) per all trades, always risk (stop loss) 1% - 5% of the capital per all trades, and always trade high risk ratio - trade at least 1/2.

- Period: long-term.

- Stop loss must be set at 1.1950.


If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.


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NZD/USD: (Bearish Market: 0.8233) Technical Analysis for October 26, 2012 Trend News

Overview:


The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue the movement from the point of 0.8165. Thus, the kiwi shows the signs of strength, following the breakdown of the highest level 0.8165. This fact can be considered as a good signal for BUY deals above this strong support (0.8165) with the first targets at 0.8230 (it will serve as a strong resistance level and is considered to be appropriate for take profit orders). It is necessary to mention that this level will coincide with the weekly resistance 2 (0.8287). However, in case of the reverse movement and if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.8287, the market will show a further decline to the level of 0.8165 (it is the weekly pivot point) indicating a bearish mood in order to retest the weekly support 1 at the level of 0.8103.




Weekly Pivot Points:



R3: 0.8344

R2: 0.8287

R1: 0.8222

PP: 0.8165

S1: 0.8100

S2: 0.8043

S3: 0.7978



If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on market trends you may visit via NZD/USD: (Bearish Market: 0.8233) Technical Analysis for October 26, 2012 . Thanks for your support on NZD/USD: (Bearish Market: 0.8233) Technical Analysis for October 26, 2012