Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid the positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 0.89% to 12.21, S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close at 1,981.6 overnight) on strong U.S. housing data and benign inflation data: U.S. housing starts rose stronger-than-expected 15.7% to 1.093 million in July (versus forecast +7.6%) and building permits increased to 1.052 million (versus forecast 1.005 million); U.S. July core CPI came in lower-than-expected at +0.1% (versus forecast +0.2%), giving the Federal Reserve room to keep monetary policy loose. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks waned as news that Russian President Putin will meet with Ukrainian leadership next week raised hopes for a solution to turmoil in the region. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year last at 2.403% versus 2.387% late Monday), as well as the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 81.87 versus 81.59 early Tuesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales.

Technical comment:
Tjhe daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.60 and the second target at 103.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.70. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.50. The pivot point is at 102.85.

Resistance levels:

103.60

103.75

104

Support levels:

102.70

102.50

102.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross, and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9130 and the second target at 0.9145. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9050. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9030. The pivot point is at 0.9070.

Resistance levels:

0.9130

0.9145

0.9170



Support levels:

0.9050

0.9030

0.9

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. the NZD sentiment is dented by the 0.6% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, 1.0% on-quarter drop in New Zealand 2Q producer input prices, and a 0.5% drop in producer output prices. NZD/USD is also undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, soft commodity prices, reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year as well as the official stance against strong Kiwi exchange rate and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive risk sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turned bearish.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8335. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.83. The pivot point stands at 0.8435. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8465 and the second target at 0.8490.

Resistance levels:

0.8465

0.8490

0.8530

Support levels:

0.8335

0.83

0.8275

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by Japanese export sales and the weak EUR/USD undertone. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.45 and the second target at 172.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 170.85. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 170.55. The pivot point is at 171.40.

Resistance levels:

172.45

172.70

173.30



Support levels:

170.85

170.55

170.20

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/08/2014 13:50 CET

The target zone market as the orange rectangle on the chart has finally been hit as the corrective green wave (ii) has been developing a little more longer that anticipated. Currently, traders should expect an impulsive wave progression to the downside with the breakout of the weekly pivot level and then intraday support level.

Support/Resistance:

135.71 - Technical Support

135.77 - WS2

136.45 - WS1

136.75 - Intraday Support

137.04 - Weekly Pivot

137.60 - Intraday Resistance

137.70 - WR1

138.02 - Swing High | Red Impulsive Count Invalidation Level|

138.29 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Sell orders form the level of 137.40 with SL above the level of 137.60 and TP below the level of 136.45 has been triggered. The other trading possibility to consider is to trade the intraday support level breakout with entry at the level of the 136.74 and using the same SL and TP as above.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/08/2014 13:30 CET

The market is developing the impulsive wave to the upside, just as it was anticipated last week. The first obvious target is the recent swing at the level of 1.0984; the next target is at the level of 1.1020. A small internal corrective cycle ahead looks like a good moment to add to the existing long positions or open a new one.

Support/Resistance:

1.0901 - Weekly Pivot

1.0935 - Intraday Support

1.0945 - WR1

1.0984 - Swing High

1.1020 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Buy orders opened at the beginning of the week should be still kept open with the first target at the level of 1.0984 with a very possible extension up to the level of 1.1020.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price was tested and rejected from the level of 1.5883. Price has been successfully rejected again from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5900, which is a sign that buying looks very risky I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find support levels and I got Fibonaccci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5710 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5595. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. So, if the price breaks the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595. According to the 30m time frame, we can observe absorption volume since buying climax got absorbed by sellers.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5842

R2: 1.5865

R3: 1.5903

Support levels:

S1: 1.5765

S2: 1.5742

S3: 1.5703

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. Just like we expected, the price tested the level of 1,291.55 in a volume just above average. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below average. We got successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent ABC swings and I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,284.00 (almost got tested). Our low level swing at the price of 1,291.00 is on the test, so selling at this stage looks risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,291.00, we may see possible testing the level of 1,284.00 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,301.81

R2: 1,303.93

R3: 1,307.37

Support levels:

S1: 1,294.93

S2: 1,292.81

S3: 1,289.37

Trading recommendations: Selling Gold looks risky since our support level is now on the test.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The price of NZD/USD pair has set below the double top (0.8450) since yesterday. Also, it should be noted that the price has formed a strong resistance level of 0.8450. Furthermore, this strong level has still been moving between 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 127.2% in H4 chart. Additionally, the NZD/USD pair has fallen from the level of 0.8450 (break) extended further to as low as 0.8390 today. Hence, the market is likely to start showing signs of a bearish bias again in order to indicate a bearish opportunity from the level of 0.8390 to 0.8450 with targets towards strong support around 0.8316. Meanwhile, the bears were forced to pull back at the level of this area. Therefore, this level will form strong support at 0.8315 in order to indicate a bullish opportunity above support. So, it will be a good sign to buy in the short term above the price of 0.8315 with the first target at 0.8426 in order to test the minor resistance and it might resume to the 0.8450 price.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The USD/CHF pair is going to set strong resistance at the level of 0.9225 and support stands at 0.9103 today. Equally important, the price has still been moving around the key level at 0.9100 since yesterday. Moreover, the USD/CHF pair has still been below 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels since last year as shown in the daily chart. Another thought, the RSI calls for an uptrend. As a result, the price has already formed the strong support at this spot of 0.9100. Now, it is approaching it in order to test it.

• Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get an upside rather convincing momentum and the structure of the rise does not look corrective. For indicating a bullish opportunity above the 0.9103 level, it will be a good sign to buy below 0.9100 with the first target of 0.9160 (this level coincides with the weekly pivot point) and it will call for an uptrend for continuing bearish move towards 0.9225.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 20, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has broken the bullish flag formation and has confirmed that wave 4 is complete and we have started wave 5 towards 83. The trend is bullish and Dollar strength is expected to continue this week. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud support and a new buy signal was given yesterday once price broke the bullish flag pattern at 81.70.

Support is found at 81.75. If broken we could see a pull back towards the Ichimoku cloud support at 81.50. The trend remains bullish. The bullish flag target is between 83-84. So, a pull back should be bought.

Wave 5 seems to be extending, so a push higher towards 83 is very possible. Important daily support is found at 81.70. Price has re-entered the upward sloping channel. The trend is up and we should see more Dollar strength this week.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 20, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This pair is weak and the weakness is supposed to continue. The price is currently testing the support line at 1.3300, and there is a high probability that the price would end up closing below the support line.

USD/CHF: This pair is strong and the stamina is supposed to continue. The price is currently moving above the formidable support level at 0.9100. This is a great achievement for the bulls, and there is a high probability that the price would end up testing the resistance level at 0.9150. That resistance level is another hurdle to be overcome.

GBP/USD: This market has dropped by over 550 pips since the middle of July 2014. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern is very strong, and the price could easily breach the accumulation territory at 1.6600 to the downside.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has broken above our target at the demand level of 103.00. The Bullish bias is now quite strong. The next target is at the supply level of 130.50. Because of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, the possibility that the price would go further northward is strong.

EUR/JPY: The Euro remains weak generally, but as a result of more weakness in the Yen (the Yen is weaker than the Euro), this cross has broken out to the upside. Any movement above the supply zone at 137.50 would give more weight to the current ‘buy’ signal in the market.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5888

R2: 1.5871

R1: 1.5848

Current spot: 1.5833

S1: 1.5795

S2: 1.5777

S1: 1.5748

Wave b of 2 has extended close to the wave 1 top at 1.5898 (the high has been 1.5888). It means a flat correction is unfolding and we should still see wave c of 2 lower to just below 1.5715 before a strong wave 3 will be ready to take over for a rally towards at least 1.6205. In the short run, we expect minor resistance at 1.5871 will protect the upside for a break below minor support at 1.5795 confirming the decline to just below 1.5715 to end wave c of 2.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR buying opportunity at 1.5715 or upon a break above 1.5898.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 20, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.62

R2: 137.42

R1: 137.36

Current spot: 137.23

S1: 137.01

S2: 136.76

S3: 136.55

Technical summary:

Minor support at 136.76 has protected the downside for a more prolonged blue wave ii. But our overall view still is, that we soon should see a powerful decline in blue wave iii lower to 135.73. After a minor consolidation in blue wave iv, we should see the final decline to the ideal blue wave v target at 134.34, where wave A also will be equal in length to wave A. Once the long-term target at 134.34 is reached, we should expect a new impulsive rally.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 137.30 with stop place at 137.75. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.30 or upon a break below 136.76.

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Medium-term forecast and an intraday recommendation on EUR/JPY for August 20, 2014 Trend News

The pair took the 2-year channel support trend line and slowly inching up sideways. On today's Asian session, the pair took support at 20DSma. Until the pair trades above the trend line, it can fly up to 137.60 and 137.70.

A daily closure above 138 the near short-term trend turns to positive. - Pending

A weekly closure above 138.60, the medium-term trend turns to positive. - Pending

Until the price closes below the 138 levels, on the down side it has an open target at 134 levels in the short term.

Intraday cmp 137.33

The prices closed above the hourly key moving averages. For an hourly trading view, the pair has support at 137.22 and below this at 137.097 and 137.02. We recommend selling only below 137 or strong buying above the res line.

Support is 137.22,137.09, and 137.02.

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Short-term forecast of USD/CHF for August 20, 2014 Trend News

The pair made a minor double bottom in the weekly chart at the 0.9023 levels and started trading above a 1-week high. It is trading near the strong resistance zone between 0.9115-0.9130; above this, it can fly up to the 0.9157, 0.9190, 0.9232, and 0.9250 levels in the medium term. On the higher side, the key resistance level existed at 0.9196 (rounded to 0.92). A monthly close above 0.92. Then, only the medium term tuns to positive.

Monthly key resistance is 0.9130.

Medium-term key level is 0.92.

On the down side, it has strong support at 0.9023 and 0.8972. On a weekly closing basis, until the pair trades above 0.8970, the uptrend still continues.

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Medium-term forecast and an intraday recommendation on EUR/USD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

The US dollar has been gaining more strength again with US housing data and building permits. The Euro was drifted to a 9-month low at the 1.3311 levels. On the downside, the pair has strong support at the 1.33-1.3295 levels; below this, 1.3250 and 1.3210 are open targets. We have been recommending the range of 1.3250-1.3210 from the 1.3650 levels. The pair lost its ground, closed below the short- and medium-term moving averages.

The monthly key resistance level moved from 1.37 to 1.3420. The bulls must close above 1.3420 on the monthly closing basis. If not, we can see the 1.32 and 1.30 levels in the medium term. Still 7 trading days are left this month. Bulls can try to close above 1.3420 at the end of the month.

A weekly close above 1.3365, turns the short-term trend positive. - Pending

A monthly close above 1.3420-1.3430 turns the corrective pull mode active. - Pending

For an intra-week outlook, the pair has support at 1.3295 (November 07, 2013 low); below this, 1.3250 (38.2 weekly fib level) and 1.3220.

Intra-week outlook on August 20-22

Key support 1.3295 1.3250 1.3220-1.3210

Key resistance 1.3363 1.3390 1.3435

Intraday- cmp 1.3315

On today's session, the pair opened above yesterday's close and held the previous day low (1.3311), made 1.3314, as of now in Asia's session. It has been making a minor support at 1.3311 for 13 hours; below this, 1.3295 will act as a major support. We recommend selling only below 1.3295 with targets at the 1.3250 and 1.3220-1.3210 levels. On the higher side, it has resistance at 1.3340, 1.3361, and 1.3365 levels. A h4 candle close above 1.3340 minor pull back will take place towards 1.3360 and 1.3365. Strong buy only above 1.3365.

Fresh sell only below 1.3295

Risky buy above 1.3340

Strong pull back above 1.3365

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Medium-term forecast and an intraday recommendation on GBP/USD for August 20, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD

After CPI data touched the wires, the cable was beaten very badly. It hit the short- and medium-term moving averages and closed below them. The cable has got only one support level to test its fate in the short term at 1.6555 (50WSma). A weekly close below the 50WSma will generate another crack in the weekly chart, leading to the 1.6465, 1.6360, and even 1.60 levels. On the upside, the pair has a strong resistance at 1.6815 (20WSma).

A weekly close above 1.6815 turns the short-term trend positive. - It is a pending scenario.

A weekly close below 1.6555 turns the medium-term negative (up to December 2014). Pending

An intra-week is expected to close on August 20-22 above 1.6675, bulls will get micro strength. Pending

For an intra-week outlook, the pair has gained support at 1.66 (April 08, low). Below this, 1.6555 (April 04, low and 50WSma) and 1.6524 (50 fib level).

Intra-week outlook for August 20-22:

Key support is at 1.66, 1.6555, and 1.6524

Key resistance is at 1.6640, 1.6673, and 1.6738

Intraday- cmp 1.6620

As for today's session, the pair opened above yesterday's close and held the previous day low (1.6612) and made a low at 1.6614, as of now in the Pacific session. It has been making a minor support at 1.6612 for 11 hours; below this, the level of 1.66 will act as a major support. We recommend selling only below 1.66 with targets at the 1.6555 and 1.6524 levels. On the higher side, it has resistance at the 1.6655, 1.6665,1.6690, and 1.6710 levels. A h4 candle closure is to be above 1.6665. Minor pull back will take place towards 1.6690, 1.67, and 1.6710. Strong buy only above 1.6710.

Fresh sell only below 1.66

Risky buy above 1.6665

Strong pull back above 1.6710

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