Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 18, 2013 Trend News

Gold managed to make a new high yesterday at $1,299 a fraction higher than the previous high. Was that the end of wave C up or just a part of the sideways triangle formation? Today we focus on those levels that will make it clearer on what to expect next for Gold prices. The $1,320-40 target scenario is still on but with slightly decreased probabilities of success. This is due to yesterday's price movements.

Gold still trades within the daily upward sloping channel. Wave 5 of C could very well have ended but we have no confirmation yet. The high of wave 1 of C at $1,260 is crucial for our wave counts. If prices overlap this high, then we will have confirmation that wave C has ended, so more downside is to be expected. If prices hold this sideways movement and do not break below the triangle, then we should see an upward break being confirmed at $1,300 with $1,340 as target.

The sideways triangle is shown in the chart above. Short-term support for Gold prices is found at $1,270. Resistance is at $1,290. Going long near the support is favored. If support breaks, we favor reversing the position to short. Breaking above $1,290 would be a good bullish signal that a break out is starting. Confirmation is above $1,300. Concluding, we prefer long positions with $1,270 stop reverse and will add above $1,290. Target still remains at $1,340. If support fails we will go short and add below $1,266 as this will confirm that the move from $1,208 is over.

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Dollar index still in downward corrective phase 18/7/2013 Trend News

Yesterday the Dollar Index managed to make another new low as expected and then pulled back up to change short-term trend. Despite the fact that short-term trend is up, we believe that we are still inside the downward corrective wave and that 82.10 is still a feasible target. The daily chart as shown below depicts the inability of the index to break above the big red bar two days ago and it seems it is trying to form a bottom.

Long-term trend is up and long-term support is the 82.10 and 80 levels. Long-term resistance is found at 83.75 and 84.75. We believe the downward move from the July high is corrective and soon dollar strength will sart pushing prices upwards in an impulsive pattern.

Although short-term trend has changed to up, the pattern of the rise from 82.35 to 82.90 is overlapping, and thus we believe it is part of the correction. Therefore, we expect prices to break down again towards 82.10. Short-term resistance is found at 82.95-83 and short-term support is found at 82.65. I remain neutral for the short term, expecting to consider long positions when a new low close to 82.10 is made.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 18, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6715

R2: 1.6675

R1: 1.6654

Current spot: 1.6649

S1: 1.6620

S2: 1.6510

S3: 1.6578

Technical overview:

Yesterday we saw an attempted to break above important resistance at 1.6756 (the high came in at 1.6762), but it failed and caused a deeper than expected decline to 1.6558. The decline below 1.6582 has forced us to change our short-term count slightly. With the break below 1.6582 it was confirmed, that we still was in red wave ii. Red wave ii is an expanded flat correction and that means we will be looking for an extended red wave iii once it is confirmed, that red wave ii is over. We do think we saw the bottom of red wave ii at 1.6558 and red wave iii higher has begun, but we need a break above 1.6715 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6762 to confirm that red wave iii is developing for a rally towards 1.7490. In the short term we are looking towards 1.6675 followed by a correction, which ideally will find support at 1.6632, but could take us lower to 1.6603 before the next rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6575 was taken out for a nice profit. However, we are looking for a new opportunity to buy EUR and will buy at 1.6610 with a stop at 1.6550.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 18, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 132.48

R2: 131.71

R1: 131.36

Current spot: 130.91

S1: 130.72

S2: 130.30

S3: 130.00

Technical overview:

Not much has changed since our analysis yesterday. We saw a test of the first minor target at 131.37 (the high was at 131.36), from where prices were rejected, but it should only be a matter of time before this minor resistance is broken for a continuation higher towards our next target at 132.48. As we said yesterday, this will not be a smooth ride higher. It will be bumpy with lots of moves, that seems out of character. However, we see the rally of the 124.96 low as a part of a very complex correction and nothing more than that. Once we have reached the target for this part of the correction we expect one more decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower towards 118.73, but only time will tell.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.60 and will move our stop higher to 129.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 131.36 with the same stop at 129.85.

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Silver testing support line. Remain long Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal retraced after testing recent highs yesterday and is presently testing immediate line of support at 19.38 region. It is recommended to remain long and initiate fresh long positions now. Our minimum downside expectations were 19.50/70 region and prices are providing opportunities to go long again. Immediate support is at 18.70/75 region, followed by 18.25; while resistance is at 22.50 on the higher side. Pushing above 21.30/50 region would confirm that a meaningful bottom is at place around the 18.00 region.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, initiate fresh longs now, stop is below 18.50, and target is at 21.00.

Good luck!

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Gold retraces after touching 1,300.00. 1,250/60 remains of interest Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal reversed from intraday highs of 1,300.00 level yesterday. Initial support comes at 1,260/64 region, also the rising trend line support passes through the same region. It is recommended to initiate fresh long positions at convergence of 1,250/60 region and the rising trendline with a bullish bounce. Minimum implications are 1,320.00 levels on the higher side. Higher up resistance comes in at 1,420.00 region; while support is around 1,280/10; followed by 1,180.00 respectively. Looking lower in the short term before the rally resumes again.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate fresh long positions between 1,250/60, stop is at 1,230, and target is at 1,320.

Good luck!

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EurJpy prints intraday highs before pulling back. Remain short Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair printed intraday highs above 131.00 region yesterday before closing the day lower. The overall wave structure still remains constructive for bears, till prices are below 132.00 level. It is recommended to remain short for now and add fresh positions on rallies. Resistance remains above 132.00 and 133/34 region; while support is seen at 119.00 and lower. The head and shoulder setup still remains valid until prices remain well below the 132.00 mark. Only if prices remain sideways in this range for long, we should consider other trading options. Looking lower for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 132.50, and target is open.

Good luck!

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GbpChf bounces off support trend line Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair bounced off right at the rising uptrend line yesterday, after printing lows intraday. The Fibonacci 0.786 ratio of the rally from 1.4075 to 1.4800 is also coinciding the bullish bounce. Keeping this into consideration, it is recommended to quit short positions and initiate long positions for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.4075, followed by 1.4; while resistance is seen at 1.48, followed by 1.5 and higher up. This bullish bounce appeared, 1.45/1.46 levels should be clear to instill further confidence into the long side. Looking higher, considering the bounce on the trend line.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions, stop is at 1.4050, and target is open.

Good luck!

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