Friday 28 March 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the flows to haven yen amid subdued risk appetite (S&P fell 0.19% overnight) as weaker-than-expected upward revision in U.S. 4Q GDP from 2.4% to 2.6% annual rate (versus 2.7% forecast); and surprise 0.8% drop in U.S. February pending home sales index (defying forecast for +0.2% increase) offset smaller-than-expected 311,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended March 22 (versus 325,000 forecast);and rise in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to 10 in March from 4 in February. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.13 versus 80.00 early Thursday) as upbeat U.S. jobless claims data boosted optimism for the next week's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, demand from Japan's importers, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode, but stochastics is neutral, five and 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.10. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.75. The pivot point is at 102.25.


Resistance levels:

102.85

103.10

103.35


Support levels:

101.95

101.75

101.45


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance, positive dollar sentiment, and franc sales on the buoyant GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, and CAD/CHF crosses. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8910 and the second target at 0.8930. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8810. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8785. The pivot point is at 0.8835.


Resistance levels:

0.8910

0.8930

0.8960


Support levels:

0.8810

0.8785

0.8765


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is undermined by the negative euro sentiment, subdued investor risk appetite and Japan's exports. But the EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.34 and the second target at 171.65. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169.20. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.80. The pivot point is at 169.90.


Resistance levels:

171.34

171.65

172


Support levels:

169.20

168.80

168.40


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the two-and-a-half year high of 0.8685 on Thursday. It is supported by the upbeat New Zealand's trade data for February, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance, hope of further stimulus in China, firmer commodity prices and kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross. But the NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment, waning investor risk appetite and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.87 and the second target at 0.8720. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8620. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8585. The pivot point is at 0.8650.


Resistance levels:

0.87

0.8720

0.8740


Support levels:
0.8620

0.8585

0.8565


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 28, 2014. Trend News

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The previously mentioned reversal Double-Top pattern achieved its projection target near price level of 1.6470.


The breakdown of 1.6530 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed 1.6470 (61.8% Fibonacci) shortly after. However, the price zone 1.6470-1.6530 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels) provided considerable bullish pressure on the pair. The bullish pullback took place off 1.6470.


The price zone of 1.6630-1.6670 remains the nearest Intraday resistance which comes to meet the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel initiated on February 17.


Any further visits will probably offer a valid SELL entry with stop-loss located just above 1.6700.


On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.6680 will probably pause the ongoing bearish momentum applying some bullish pressure probably towards 1.6780-1.6800.


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EUR/NZD analysis for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5762 on volume above the average. According to the daily chart, we can observe supply on volume above the average (selling climax), which is a sign that we may see more downward movement before the larger buying reaction. We may see possible testing of the level of 1.5630 (major Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful with short-term buying at this stage since the price broke our support zone. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement. There is always a chance for smaller bullish correction, but the global direction is bearish. According to the H4 timeframe, we got supply on average volume.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5989


R2: 1.6040


R3: 1.6123


Support levels:


S1: 1.5823


S2 : 1.5772


S3: 1.5689


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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GOLD analysis for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, Gold has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,288.90 on average volume. Our previous analysis is still active and we got good progress. According to the daily chart, we can observe supply bar on on average volume, which is a good sign for the further downward movement. Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci Retracement to find the first down station. I got major Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,312.00 (already met) and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,263.00. We can also observe previous swing high zone at the price of 1,279.00, which may be a good support zone for Gold. Next down stations on short-term prospective are the levels of 1,279.00-1,263.00. Be careful with short-term buying and watch for selling opportunities after retracements. According to the H4 timeframe, we got supply bars on volume above the average so buying at this stage looks very risky.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,303.73


R2: 1,307.91


R3: 1,314.67


Support levels:


S1: 1,290.21


S2: 1,286.03


S3: 1,279.27


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying at this stage since Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 28, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 28/03/2014 11:40 CET


The downside extension in wave (i) green was a little bigger and the larger time frame look is presented to correctly identify the wave progression. On H4 chart, it looks like wave (i) green has been finished with intraday low at the level of 1.1000. Currently, the market should be in corrective cycle, but it is possible to the wave 5 red to be extended even more, down to the level of 1.0955. The resistance is at the level of 1.1024-1.1042 and any breakout above this zone means the upside correction in wave (ii) green has been started. The first target for the correction is the level of 1.1104.


Support/Resistance:


1.1104 - Previous Wave 4 Area


1.1042 - 1.1024 - Technical Resistance


1.1000 - Wave (i) Low


1.0955 - Technical Support


1.0909 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


Short orders should be kept open until the market changes the behavior or the target levels are hit. Downside bias prevails.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 28, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 28/03/2014 11:20 CET


The pair is moving in the anticipated direction, although the wave progression is not impulsive. The red channel is still providing the dynamic resistance and it is expected to do this in the future as well. Please notice that the momentum is diminishing and bullish divergence has been made on H4 time frame chart. It means that the upper boundary of the red channel might be tested soon. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the downside and in general lower prices are expected.


Support/Resistance:


141.16 - Weekly Pivot


140.75 - Channel Resistance


140.32 - WS1


139.61 - WS2


138.78 - WS3


Trading recommendations:


Short orders should be kept open until the market changes the behavior or the target levels are hit. Downside bias prevails.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Trading recommendations :



  • The NZD/USD pair on March 28, 2014.

  • The resistance is going to set at the level of 0.8847. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.8613 is representing a strong support.

  • Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 0.8700/0.8847. level with the targets at 0.8645 and 0.8613.

  • On the contrary, the support has already set at 0.8613.

  • Furthermore, it should note that it will very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this level for a short period.

  • Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the 0.8613 level with targets at 0.8668 and 0.8725 to reach the double top.


Intraday technical levels :


Date and Time: 28/03/2014 10:09


Pair: NZD/USD



  • R3: 0.8801

  • R2: 0.8743

  • R1: 0.8707

  • PP: 0.8649

  • S1: 0.8613

  • S2: 0.8555

  • S3: 0.8519


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#USDX technical analysis for March 28, 2014 Trend News

With Spanish March CPI worse than expected and EURUSD breaking lower towards 1.3710, the Dollar index gains some strength and moves higher to test resistance at 80.40. Short-term view is bullish and long-term view mildly bullish. This can turn to strongly bullish if the Dollar index breaks above 81.30-40.


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Short-term support is found at 80 and short-term resistance at 80.30-40. Breaking support could push the index towards 79.70. Breaking resistance will push the index towards 81.


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The daily chart shows how the index has managed to move back above the blue trend line resistance and is now going to test the downward sloping trend line and the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Trend is up and I believe more Dollar strength will be evident in the coming weeks as I believe 79.20 is an important long-term low and I see increased chances that this is not going to break this low.


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Gold Technical analysis for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.5935


R2: 1.5908


R1: 1.5864


Current spot: 1.5813


S1: 1.5770


S2: 1.5694


S3: 1.5617


Technical summary:


The strong acceleration lower we have seen over the last couple of days clearly indicates that we are in a wave three lower. As can be seen on the chart we are acturally looking at a series of wave one's and two's and a series of wave three's is ongoing. For blue wave iii we will be looking for a target at 1.5694, while the target for red wave iii comes in at 1.5533, so we should see more downside action from here. However, we should expect some corrections under the way lower and currently we meeting some strong trendline support, which could cause a sideways consolidation/correction.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 1.5925 and lower your stop to 1.5865. If our stop is hit, we will sell EUR again 1.5905 with a stop at 1.6000.


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Daily analysis of Silver for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Overview


In the today's H4 chart, silver has stabilized above the Support level of 19.50 and could not break it and currently it is bouncing towards the Resistance level of 19.85 to test it. So we still suggest waiting for closing above the Resistance level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.20, then after breaking this Resistance level, silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 20.50, which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the Resistance level of 19.85 this cancels the bullish scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.50), R2 (20.20), R1 (19.85), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.20), S3(18.75).


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 28, 2014 Trend News

EUR-NZD.png


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.5935


R2: 1.5908


R1: 1.5864


Current spot: 1.5813


S1: 1.5770


S2: 1.5694


S3: 1.5617


Technical summary:


The strong acceleration lower we have seen over the last couple of days clearly indicates that we are in a wave three lower. As can be seen on the chart we are acturally looking at a series of wave one's and two's and a series of wave three's is ongoing. For blue wave iii we will be looking for a target at 1.5694, while the target for red wave iii comes in at 1.5533, so we should see more downside action from here. However, we should expect some corrections under the way lower and currently we meeting some strong trendline support, which could cause a sideways consolidation/correction.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 1.5925 and lower your stop to 1.5865. If our stop is hit, we will sell EUR again 1.5905 with a stop at 1.6000.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 141.04


R2: 140.81


R1: 140.52


Current spot: 140.38


S1: 140.23


S2: 139.84


S3: 139.33


Technical summary:


The bears still have benefits, but we would like to see some downside acceleration soon to confirm that they are in the divers seat. In the short term, we would like to see resistance in the 140.52-140.68 protecting the upside for a break below support at 140.18 for acceleration lower towards 136.45. That said, as long as we have not seen the acceleration towards the downside we have to acknowledge that the decline from 140.43 only is an x-wave in a complex correction, if this is the case, we should see a break above 140.92 that would call for a move closer to 142.11 and just maybe 142.50 before wave ii is over.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 140.65 and move your stop lower to 140.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 140.18 with the same stop at 140.95.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD (Weekly) for March 28, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The AUS/USD weekly chart setup indicates that there could be further downside left in the pair towards 0.7950/0.8000 levels. At the moment the AUD/USD is breaking out of the immediate downtrend line as seen here and has got potential to rally upto 0.9350 and also 0.9500 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now, but look to short from 0.9350/0.9400 levels on a bearish reversal.


2. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.9750, followed by 1.05, while support is through 0.9130, followed by 0.8670 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that the entire rally from 0.6200 through 1.1000 is being retraced at the moment in a corrective 3 wave style. The fibonacci 0.618 of the bull run is around 0.7950 levels. Hence bottom formation is seen there.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now. Looking to sell higher up.


Good luck!




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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for March 28, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last couple a days, the USD/CAD pair has been trading in a strong downward channel, since our invalidation is reached we are going to switch over to alternate count. In the 4-hours chart of the pair, we can observe that price has found resistance at the 1.1278 level, and from there we are seeing strong descending movements towards the 1.1010 level. At the moment, we must go with idea of the FLAT correction in the (X) wave (coloured red), and while price remain below the 1.1100 level, we are going to focus on more downside movements in this commodity currency.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should extend 123.6% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 1.0890 (123.6% of wave A). Swing traders need to wait a new low to get reached before we try another long opportunity.



Support and Resistance


(S3) 1.0901, (S2) 1.0957, (S1) 1.0993, (PP) 1.1049, (R1) 1.1085, (R2) 1.1141, (R3) 1.1177.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1040 with stop loss at 1.1100 and take profit at 1.0890 are recommended.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD (Weekly) for March 28, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/USD weekly chart view has been presented here for the larger picture and it looks grim at the moment for bulls. The pair has reversed right from the resistance line extending through 2008, from 1.4960 levels last week. As seen here, prices have produced an evening star reversal bearish signal right at the trend line. It is recommended to initiate short positions now (1.3740), risk remains at 1.3960 for now. A huge trend reversal could be on cards.


2. Immediate resistance is at 1.3960, followed by 1.4200 and higher up, while immediate support is at1.3480, followed by 1.33 and lower respectively.


3. The wave structure indicates that if resistance at 1.3960 holds (which is highly probable looking into present setup), bears could possibly drag prices lower into 1.3's and 1.2's again.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop is at 1.3960, target is open.


Good luck!


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