Review of USDX for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Federal Reserve comments made the US dollar stronger. The US data and the job market look pretty strong adding fuel to the USD index to breach above $85. The weekly job claims climbed to 12k that is very optimistic data for the Fed to hike interest rates sooner than anticipated. We have been recommending to buy the USD index from 80.45 levels for upside targets at 84.50 and 90. The first target is successfully completed and now we are waiting for 88 and 90 levels. It took 3 months to complete the first target, please refer to June 29, 2014 for our previous article.

Support 84.80 84.20 83.80

In case of a daily close below 84.20 only, the weekly trend turns to negative.

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Intraday analysis of USD/CAD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair breached the double top in the weekly chart, aiming at a 9-month swing high at 1.2222 in-between strong resistance at 1.1150 levels. The pair has support at 1.11, below this, 1.1054 and 1.0 are the strong support levels. In the near term until the pair closes above 1.098, use a dip to buy. On the bearish front, in case of a daily close below 1.098, it can fall to 1.0928 which is a strong support level in the short term. The weekly Stochastics is indicating some more upside steam left.

Support 1.11 1.1054 1.0

Resistance 1.1150 1.1185 1.22

For an intraday view, the prices are above 12ema and 34hrsma. The pair has support at 1.11 (8hr low), below this, 1.1093. The hourly support is at 1.1093, 1.1075 and 1.1035, below them the selling pressure will drive the pair towards 1.0987 and 1.0975. Above 1.1127, it can fly up to 1.1145, 1.1185 and 1.12 levels.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate, German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2816.

Strong Resistance:1.2809.

Original Resistance: 1.2796.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2783.

Target Inner Area: 1.2753.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2723.

Original Support: 1.2710.

Strong Support: 1.2697.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2690.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.19.

Resistance. 2: 108.98.

Resistance. 1: 108.76.

Support. 1: 108.50.

Support. 2: 108.29.

Support. 3: 108.07.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair pulled back into 138.50 levels as discussed earlier. This move was expected after the pair made a high above 141.00 levels last week. Please note that the past resistance turned support region is also passing around the same region for now (around 138.50). It is recommended to initiate long positions again at current levels and expect a rally up to 142.50 in coming sessions. Immediate support is at 138.00 (fibonacci), followed by 137.00 (fibonacci), 135.85 and lower, while resistance is seen at 142.50 and higher respectively. Bulls seen to be taking back control for now, remain long.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate fresh long positions now (138.70/75), stop below 137.70, target is 142.50.

Good luck!

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Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Fed's comments made the US dollar stronger. The US data and the job market look pretty strong that adds fuel to the USD index to breach above $85. The cable regains its strength after the Scottish referendum moving 300 odd pips from lows. The cable has held the support at 50Msma and covered half of its losses in this month as of now. The cable has a strong resistance zone at 1.65 (200MEma) and 1.6650 (200MSma) in the medium-term perspective. In the short term 1.6590-1.66 will act as game change levels.

Support 1.6210 1.61 1.60

Resistance 1.6525 1.66 1.6650

For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 12ema and 35DEMA. The prices are back to the 2-month trend lines. In the h4 chart, the prices hit the 2-week trend line as well. The pair has a minor base at 1.6295-1.63, below this, 1.6275 is the support level. The safe buy will be triggered only above 1.6360 for an upside target at 1.6385, 1.64 and 1.6415. Strong momentum is only above 1.6415 (multiple hourly resistance).

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Intraday trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Fed's comments made the US dollar stronger. The US data and the job market look pretty strong that adds fuel to the USD index to breach above $85. The weekly job claims climbed to 12k, very optimistic data for the Fed to hike interest rates sooner than expected. The EUR/USD pair drifted to 1.2698 and hit the monthly 61.8 fib level and 200MEma. If the pair closes below 200MEma, it will extend its fall to 1.2435 and 1.22 (200MSma) in the medium term. The pair has monthly resistance at 1.3410.

For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 12ema and 35DEMA. The prices made a small base at 1.2725 on an hourly basis in the h4 chart. In the Pacific session the pair is trading at 1.2758 facing resistance at 1.2775 (12ema) levels. Above 1.2775 it can fly up to 1.2790, 1.28 and 1.2830. We can see strong upmove only above 1.2830. The trading range is framed between 1.2835-1.2725; a breakout either side will open some more room to trade. We still recommend selling on an up move.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 85.18, because the next target for this instrument would be the level of 86.20. However, If the USDX makes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 84.29 in the medium term. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 85.06, where one bullish trend line is placed. If the USDX makes a rebound at current levels, it's expected to rise to the level of 86.55. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The USDX found strong resistance at the 85.49 level and now, this instrument is trying to drop to the support level of 85.03. However, the USDX could make a breakout again at the resistance level of 85.27 to rise to the level of 85.49. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.27, take profit is at 85.49, and stop loss is at 85.03.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is dealing with a breakout at the support level of 1.6326,the pair is likely to fall to the level of 1.6235. However, the GBP/USD could conduct a rebound at current levels to go up to the resistance level of 1.6447. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD has formed another fractal near the support level of 1.6250, so this pair could rebound to try to make a climb back to where the 200 SMA is located in this chart. However, if the GBP/USD executes a breakout at the 1.6247 level, it would be expected to drop to the level of 1.6051. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair is consolidating below the 200-day moving average, so this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6291 to fall to the level of 1.6252. On the other hand, if this pair makes a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6338, the next target would be the level of 1.6375. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6338, take profit is at 1.6375, and stop loss is at 1.6299.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.0886, and the rise extended to as high as 1.1126. Further rise could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.1200 area. Support is at 1.1050, only break below this level could bring price back to 1.0900 area.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF's upward movement from 0.8997 extended to as high as 0.9514. Further rise could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 0.9600 area. Support is located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY continued its sideways movement in a range between 108.24 and 109.45. Support is at 108.24, as long as this level holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 101.50, another rise to 110.00 area could be expected after consolidation, and a break of 109.45 resistance could signal resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a breakdown below 108.24 support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 109.45 already, then deeper decline to 107.00 area could be seen.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 0.9401, and the fall extended to as low as 0.8772. Resistance is located at the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.8700 area. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD is now in downtrend from 1.6524, and the fall extended to as low as 1.6276. Further decline could be expected, and the target would be at 1.6100 area. Resistance is at 1.6420, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6700.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - September 26, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD's downward movement from 1.3411 extended to as low as 1.2696. Resistance is located at the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.2600 area. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.2696 already, then further rise to 1.3000 area could be seen.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.06 versus 84.70 early Wednesday) and yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 11.12% to 13.27; S&P 500 rose 0.78% to close at 1,998.3 overnight) on larger-than-expected 18% on-month increase in U.S. August new home sales to 504,000 for the biggest one-month jump since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008 (versus forecast +3.4%). USD/JPY is also supported by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, demand from Japanese importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.565% versus 2.533% late Tuesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese export sales.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.45. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 108.20. The pivot point stands at 109.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.70 and the second target at 110.

Resistance levels:

109.70

110

110.35

Support levels:

108.45

108.20

107.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a 14-month high 0.9459 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.06 versus 84.70 early Wednesday) and yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 11.12% to 13.27; S&P 500 rose 0.78% to close at 1,998.3 overnight) on larger-than-expected 18% on-month increase in U.S. August new home sales to 504,000 for the biggest one-month jump since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008 (versus forecast +3.4%), contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and 0.32-point drop in UBS Switzerland consumption indicator to 1.35 in August and franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies.

Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9520 and the second target at 0.9545. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9380. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9420. The pivot point is at 0.9380.

Resistance levels:

0.9520

0.9545

0.9570



Support levels:

0.9380

0.9340

0.9295

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is underpinned by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the positive risk sentiment, Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/CHF and soft EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD crosses. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive USD sentiment and lower Fonterra Co-Operative Group Ltd's forecast for payouts to farmers and Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross.

Technical Comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7880. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7835. The pivot point stands at 0.8035. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8095 and the second target at 0.8145.

Resistance levels:

0.8095

0.8145

0.8175

Support levels:

0.7880

0.7835

0.78

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment and Japan's export sales and sterling sales on retreating GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD crosses. But GBP/USD losses are tempered by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid the positive risk sentiment and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the buoyant USD/JPY undertone and demand from Japanese importers.

Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.505. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.

Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 25/09/2014 12:10 CET

The purple impulsive count has been invalidated as wave (4) overlapped wave (1), so now the main count is the blue impulsive count. The corrective cycle looks to be completed and the pair might be ready to rebound and continue to move higher, but please notice, that any violation of the level of 138.25 invalidates this outlook. The first clue that the uptrend will be continued comes with the golden trendline breakout and then intraday resistance level breakout as well. Moreover, please be aware that the price is forming a falling wedge pattern as well.

Support/Resistance:

141.22- Swing High|WR1|

140.21 - Intraday Resistance

139.84 - Weekly Pivot

138.83 - Intraday Support

138.46 - WS1

138.25 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

137.12 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy positions only if the golden trendline is broken with SL below the level of 138.25 and TP open for now. Otherwise please refrain from opening positions.

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#USDX Technical analysis for September 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has made a break out above resistance levels yesterday and is very strong moving higher above 85. This break out is very important as many traders have bet against it and not only bulls are buying this but also bears whith their stops getting hit. The 85 price level was a very important long-term resistance.

Red line = resistance

The short-term chart is fully bullish once again as price has broken above the 84.80 resistance and is now making new highs. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. The buy signal was given once we broke above 84.80 and our target is now near 86 for the short term.

Red line = resistance

The daily chart remains fully bullish and specially now that we have broken above the long-term resistance levels we could see this rally continue. It is important for the week to close above 85 and to continue closing higher above 85 and not pulling back below 84.50. We could see a back test of the break out area at 85 but right now anything deeper that 84.50 could signal a false break out. This would be an extremely bearish signal. In conclusion, we remain bullish.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6151

R2: 1.6107

R1: 1.6062

Current spot: 160.03

S1: 1.5970

S2: 1.5940

S3: 1.5912

Technical summary:

We have finally seen the expected acceleration higher. The base-channel resistance-line is now broken and should provide even more upside acceleration towards the 1.6203 on the way higher towards 1.6407. In the longer term, we are looking for much higher levels. In the short term, we expect support at 1.5970 to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 1.6203, but even if support at 1.5970 is broken, it should only cause a slightly lower decline to 1.5940 before the next rally higher sets in.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and we will move our stop to break-even. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5970 with the same stop at 1.5826.

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Gold Wave analysis for September 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has given a short-term sell signal yesterday by breaking below $1,222. Earlier today, it has also broken below support at $1,215. Right now, Gold price is making new lows and following our expected move lower towards $1,200-$1,190. We noted in our previous analysis that the upward bounce was of a corrective form and that downward pressures were going to resume.

Green line = price channel

Gold price did not manage to bounce higher towards our $1,240-50 target and gave several sell signals yesterday by breaking below support at $1.215. The trend remains clearly bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the downward sloping channel.

Our longer-term view remains bearish and that is why we prefer not to trade any upside bounce but follow the trend on signs of weakness. The long-term taret I have is at $1,000 and we will have confirmation for that level when we break below the lows at $1,180. We are very close to testing this level. We remain bearish and a daily close below $1,208 will push gold price towards $1,180.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 139.57

R2: 139.43

R1: 139.27

Current spot: 139.14

S1: 139.00

S2: 138.93

S3: 138.78

Technical summary:

The correction from 141.22 has become deeper and more complex than first expected, but it does not alter our count, that this is a wave two correction and that the downside potential is limited from here. We will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 139.43 as the first indication, that blue wave ii is over, while a break above short-term important resistance at 139.70 confirms the bottom for a new rally back to 141.22 on the way higher to 143.79.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 139.05 was hit for a very nice profit. We will buy EUR again here at 139.14 with a stop at 138.40.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair has continued its weakness – amidst the bearish outlook. The price is now trading below the resistance line at 1.2800, going towards another support line at 1.2750. Our target for the week was 1.2800, which has already been breached by the price, but the market may go further downwards from here.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has been able to continue its bullish journey, going above the support level at 0.9400 and breaking above it. The price is now going towards the next target at the resistance level of 0.9500. Some fundamental figures would be released today and they would have impact on the markets.

GBP/USD: This is a bullish market – although the bullish energy is low. As it was said earlier this week, as long as the Cable trades above the accumulation territory at 1.6300, it would be thought that the bullish signal is OK. The signal would be rendered useless only when the market goes below that accumulation territory.

USD/JPY: Here, the price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This shows that the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is still valid. While the price could still test the supply level at 109.50, there is also a risk of a large pullback in the market.

EUR/JPY: The persistent selling pressure on this currency trading instrument has posed a threat on the recent bullish scenario in the market. The RSI period 14 has already gone below the level 50, and should the price cross below the demand zone at 139.00, it would mean the beginning of a serious bearish journey.

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