Forecast for USDX for May 29, 2014 Trend News

Today traders eye prelim GDP and unemployment claims data. The index moved to a 2-month high. The index closed above the 200-day EMA which was a bullish sign for the medium term for 82 and 84 targets, but the overbought indicators stopped the dollar and it did not cross the previous swing high at 80.60 (April 04 high), the index formed a double top at 80.58 levels. We expect the price will correct a bit to 80.30, 80.17 and 80. A day close below the 80 mark, then the bulls is in trouble, the weakness exists only below 80.40 levels.

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Technical analysis of USD pairs for May 29, 2014 Trend News

USDJPY

The pair has been in an uptrend from 100.83 levels. The pair rejected twice at 50-day SMA and fell to 38.2 fib level. Currently, the pair is in a range between 101.60-101.90 levels. On the downside, if the pair breaks the 101.60 levels, it will fall to 101.50, 101.30 and 100.80 levels. A day close below 100.80, the major bearish view will take the pair towards 99.60 and 98.90 levels. On the up side, if the pair breaks the 101.90 resistance level, it will spike up to 102, 102.14 and 102.20. The highly bullish view will come into existence only above 102.20 on a closing basis.

USDCAD

The pair has been forming a symmetric triangle ready for a breakout. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.08 levels. Below this, it will fall to 1.0761 and 1.0636 levels. On the up side, above 1.0890, it will fly up to 1.0931, 1.0942 and 1.0967 levels. A day close above 50-day SMA 0.9675, it will fly up to 1.1050 and 1.1170 levels.

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Forecast and intraday analysis of EUR/USD for May 29, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

The euro has been making new lows for the last 4 consecutive weeks. Traders are wating for the June 5 ECB meeting. As per yesterday's data, German import prices fell by 0.3% on a monthly basis, French consumer spending decreased by 0.3%, led by a decrease in expenditure on energy goods, German unemployment showed an uptick for the first time in past six months. The printed data represents a negative wave for the euro which dropped to 2-month low against the US dollar.

EUR/USD is trying to touch the zone between 1.3560 (February 12 low) and 1.3550 (50-week SMA) levels. After the ECB's next meeting, the pair can break the 1.3550 levels and it can extend its downside journey to 1.3477, 1.3411/1.34 , 1.3295 and 1.32 levels easily.

On the upside, if the bulls like to take control, they must take the pair above 1.3673 levels on a weekly closing basis. If it does so, they can make 1.3734 and 1.3775 levels.

Finally, the pair closed below the 200-day EMA after three days of consolidation, now this level (200EMA) has become crucial resistance for coming days. The resistance zone was framed between 1.3620-1.3638 levels. On the down side, the pair again looks weak below 1.3585 for 1.3562 and 1.355 levels. In case, if the pair holds 1.3585, then it can move up to 1.3620 or 1.3640 levels. Above 1.3643, it can move up to 1.3660, 1.37 and 1.3740 levels.

Intraday

Until it holds the 1.3585 level, it can pull back up to 1.3620, 1.3626, 1.3640 levels. Strong momentum is only above 1.3643 levels. If it breaks 1.3585, sell for 1.3562, 1.3550 and 1.3477 levels.

Based on the above study, we recommend the following.

Recommendations- cmp 1.3595.

Buy with sl 1.3585 and targets 1.36, 1.3620, 1.3640 levels (purely for speculators).

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Intraday analysis of GBP/USD for May 29, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD

The UK CBI realized sales were slow in May, the index of retailers dropped to 16 from 30 in the previous month. The pound fell sharply to a one-month low taking parallel support at 1.6696 (April 14 low). In yesterday's session, it broke the supporting trend line, breaking the previous swing low (1.6732 May 15) and closing below the 50-day SMA. On the down side, if the cable breaks 1.6696, it will extend its fall to 1.666 initially, below this, 1.66, 1.6554 and 1.6465 will be on the cards. We expect this week's low can be made above 1.6635, as of now this week's low is printed at 1.6698, next round of selling is below 1.6696 levels.

We expect the pair to shift the gear towards the pullback mode, it can attain 1.6732, 1.6745 and 1.6764 levels, this view will reject below 1.6695 levels. The cable shows strong momentum above 1.6730 levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks 1.6695, it will fall to 1.666 and 1.6613 levels.

NOTE- Safe traders, buy above 1.6732.

Sell below 1.6695- panic is below 1.666.

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From the today's H4 chart, silver is still stabilizing above the Support level of 19.00 and could not break it and currently is bouncing from it towards the Resistance level of 19.20. So, we still suggest waiting for closing above the Resistance level in case of bouncing from the Support level of 19.00 to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 19.20, then after breaking this Resistance level silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 19.50, which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the Resistance level of 19.20 this cancels the bullish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.75), R2 (19.50), R1 (19.20), S1 (19.00), S2 (18.70)

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 28/05/2014 16:15 CET

The bottom for wave (b) blue looks to be in place and not the market is trying to develop impulsive wave to the upside. The first two waves are completed (wave i and wave ii) and now third wave should be in progress. In case of a failure of a breakout above the level of 1.0874 the impulsive development might be muted and the correction in wave ii might get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:

1.0819 - WS1

1.0834 - Technical Support

1.0874 - Technical Resistance

1.0897 - Weekly Pivot

1.0910 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's long positions almost hit the TP at the level of 1.0880. So, it is still ok to hold this positions open in anticipation of impulsive wave iii the the upside. Only a clear breakout above the level of 1.0880 is a valid signal to add to the long position.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

The price zone 1.3800-1.3880 ( depicted on the chart ) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum above the depicted bullish trendline.

Thus, a Double Top reversal pattern is being established with a neckline located at 1.3700 which has already been broken-down during last week's consolidations.

This indicates the dominant bearish momentum with high probability to achieve the reversal pattern projection targets as long as the bears keep defending 1.3700 handle (neckline of the Double Top pattern).

The estimated projection target of this reversal pattern extends down to 1.3470. However, the 4H chart below will show some important levels to meet the pair on its way towards targets.

Previously, the depicted uptrend line (the blue trendline) came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3880.

The recent established bottom around 1.3810 could achieve higher value above 1.3880. The bulls topped at 1.3950. However, these levels corresponded to the upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel which applied significant bearish reaction.

A strong corrective movement towards 1.3850 and 1.3800 was executed immediately as expected. This led again towards 1.3770 and cleared the way towards 1.3690 ( previous prominent bottom ).

The next DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 1.3560 where the previous prominent bottom was established in February.

For the bulls, the price zone of 1.3560-1.3520 may offer a good BUY opportunity with stop loss located below 1.3500. If so, this bullish corrective movement will be targeting at 1.3690-1.3710.

On the other hand, success of the bulls to fixate above 1.3640-1.3650 ( recent broken bottoms ) threatens the bearish sentiment of the market allowing extension of the bullish targets towards 1.3690-1.3700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

The recent prominent lows around 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout above 1.6880-1.6900 to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this breakout lost its bullish momentum showing successive lower highs as a part of a bearish 123 reversal pattern as depicted on the chart.

The lower limit of the bullish wedge was broken down two weeks ago showing a full-body bearish daily candlestick. This enhances the bearish side of the market so far.

Once before, the GBP/USD pair showed bullish recovery after testing of 1.6730. Thus, it may constitute a DEMAND level on intraday basis.

If the bears manage to break-down the currently tested DEMAND level around 1.6730-1.6700, the pair will have obvious targets around 1.6670 initially.

The bulls managed to record a higher value above the recent one at 1.6900. However, the ongoing demand has been fulfilled around 1.6920 which led to a price decline again.

Bearish breakdown of 1.6825-1.6800 ( which means breakdown of the previous congestion zone as well ) exposed price level of 1.6740 which has already been hit today.

Price zone of 1.6750-1.6730 corresponds to lower limit of the ongoing channel. Thus, it should be watched for price action at retesting for a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, 4H closure below this price zone suggests a bearish limb towards 1.6670 immediately.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

The weekly pivot point: 1.6850

Trading recommendations :

• The weekly pivot point of the GBP/USD pair has set at the level of 1.6850. This level is acting as strong resistance and the minor resistance has set at 1.6780 today. Therefore, the first key level will set at the level of 1.6850 and the second key level will set at the 1.6780 level on May 284, 2014. Equally important, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6803 and 1.6770. Also, it should be noted that the range was about 65 pips yesterday. Furthermore, the trend was very clear and was indicating in downtrend. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.6780 in H1 chart (sellers are asking for a high price). As a result, sell at the price of 1.6780 with the target of 1.6731 (the daily support). On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.6850, thus it will be helpful to set it at the price of 1.6883.

Notes :

• Resistance sets at 1.6850 and minor resistance sets at 1.6780.


• We expect a range of 75 pips today.


• Volatility: 121.41

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The EUR/USD pair has already formed a strong resistance level of 1.3707. This level had already the last weekly pivot point, but this week is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, after it could not close above 1.3660 (the weekly pivot point for 26-30 May, 2014) and the pair started signing for bearish market at this spot. Therefore, the pair will be in a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.3700 or 1.3660 for that it will a good sign to sell below this area with the first target of 1.3615 to test the double bottom in H1 and its chart will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 1.3585 (weekly support one). However, it should be noted that the price has still been moving between 1.3660 and 1.3615. So, we expect a range of 70 pips on May 28, 2014.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.6046 on ultra high volume (buying climax) according to the 4H timeframe . According to the 4H timeframe, I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential end of bullish movement and I got major Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6075. We can observe broken resistance level at the price of 1.6015 but on ultra high volume, which may be a panic movement so buying at this stage looks very risky. A support level at the price of 1.5910 held successfully and that caused price to start upward movement. Anyway, be careful with buying EUR/NZD since price is near the resistance.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5961

R2: 1.5975

R3: 1.5997

Support levels:

S1: 1.5917

S2: 1.5903

S3: 1.5881

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GOLD analysis for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1,260.61 on ultra high volume (selling climax) according to the Daily chart. Since the price didn't break our resisntace level at 1,305.00, we saw strong downward pressure. Anyway, selling still looks very risky since we are on the support level and we have got selling climax (ultra high volume) on the low ground. I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential end of bearish corrective phase and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,262.00 (on the test) and Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,259.50. A short-term resistnace level is at the price of 1,276.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,286.56

R2: 1,293.94

R3: 1,305.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,262.64

S2: 1,255.26

S3: 1,243.30

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since the price is near support.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6179

R2: 1.6104

R1: 1.6058

Current spot: 1.6020

S1: 1.5978

S2: 1.5948

S3: 1.5907

Technical summary:

The correction from 1.5981 became slightly deeper than expected, but with a low at 1.5907 important support at 1.5905 was secured and we should now see a continuation higher towards strong resistance at 1.6179 and a break above here will confirm that a important long-term bottom is in place at 1.5744 for a rally towards 1.7274 and higher towards 1.9094 longer-term.

In the short term we should ideally see support at 1.5978 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6058 towards 1.6179.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 1.5858 and keep you stop at 1.5905. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5978 or upon a break above 1.6058 with the same stop at 1.5905.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 139.74

R2: 139.36

R1: 138.91

Current spot: 138.76

S1: 138.56

S2: 138.14

S3: 137.69

Technical summary:

Blue wave ended early at 139.36 (the ideal corrective target was at 1.3974). We are now looking for a break below support at 138.56 to confirm the final decline in blue wave v towards at least 137.69 and more likely even lower towards 136.67 to end blue wave v and red wave iii. As red wave ii wave a simple zig-zag that corrected most of red wave i we should expect red wave iv to be a flat and shallow correction.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 138.73 and will place our stop at 139.40. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 138.90 or upon a break below 138.56 with the same stop at 139.40.

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#USDX Technical analysis for May 28, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is making new short-term higher highs above 80.35. Trend remains up and it seems that bulls continue to have the upper hand as sellers are not strong enough to push the index towards 80. As shown in the chart below, the short-term trend is up as price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and the red upward sloping trend line.

As long as price is above the trend line and the Ichimoku cloud trend is bullish. Short-term support is found at 80 and at 79.90. Short-term resistance is found at 80.70. It is very crucial for the Dollar index not to break the 79.90 level. If this level is broken, then I will assume that the entire upward move is a correction and we should expect new lows below 78.90. For now, trend remains up as prce makes higher highs and higher lows.

Even in the daily chart, price has broken and made more than one close above the Ichimoku cloud and it seems that a pull back will be postponed. Important daily resistance is found at 80.60 and if we see a daily close above it, we will get another confirmation that the longer-term trend has reversed to up. As long as price is above 79.90, we remain bullish.

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Gold technical analysis for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Gold price is trading near $1,265 after having broken the sideways triangle and making a new lower low in the daily chart,similar to the $1,268 it made in April. Another important bearish signal is the fact that we had a daily close below $1,275 and this implies that more selling pressures should come soon and push price lower.

Gold price is trending lower and is below Ichimoku cloud resistance. Short-term support is found at $1,260 and if that level is broken we should expect Gold price to fall another $20 per ounce. Short-term resistance is found at $1,280 and then at $1,300.

Gold price has found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,180 to $1,391. If this support holds, we could see a bounce towards $1,280-$1,300. Trend is down as price has made a new lower low that is clearly visible in the daily chart. Usually when such a breakout occurs we see more selling pressures and not just only one day. So I expect more selling to push price towards $1,240.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 28, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has broken down the trading range below $1,270.00/80.00 levels as seen here. The metal is trading at $1,260.00 levels for now which is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $1,180.00/82.00 and $1,388.00. A bullish bounce could remain possible at current levels. Recommendations are to remain flat for now. Watch for a reaction at current levels.

2. Support is seen at $1,240.00/30.00 levels, followed by $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,300.00/10.00, followed by $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold could produce a bullish bounce at current levels around $1,260.00. A break here and subsequently $1,230.00/40.00 could be extremely bearish for the metal though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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