Thursday 1 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 01, 2012 Trend News

A good start, at least in terms of macro data, marks the beginning of the penultimate month of the year: the ADP private employment survey for October showed a figure of 158,000 jobs created, about 20,000 above expectations.



With the official data from the Department of Labor to look at, and encouraging figures about the decline in the unemployment rate, the market faces crucial days.



The official figure is usually not very different from the ADP survey, at least that is what seen in recent months. And these data arrives in difficult times, with presidential elections within five days.



The resumption of trading, which occurred on Wednesday, did not leave too. After a euphoric start, leading shares lost strength, to close the Dow Jones a few points below last Friday's close. This behavior is reflected in turn the currency market.



The euro, which had exceeded 1.30, again fell, and recovered positions timidly at these times, seeking the same goal. The pound, meanwhile, halted its rise after a UK manufacturing PMI fell again to below 50 points. But do not lose uptrend, and in the short term, is presented with a force that does not exhibit the euro.



The yen has just fallen back to 80 units against the dollar, with the good news of private employment, which in turn is propelling the Dow Jones index futures in the prior U.S. session.



Data are not minor expected during the next few hours: at 10:00 Eastern, will be known index of consumer confidence, which had been postponed on Tuesday, and the ISM manufacturing, which is expected to exceed 51 points. At 10:30, it's the turn of oil inventories, which have impact on the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar.



From the afternoon, expect a pause in the movements, typical of the days before the jobs data.


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EUR/USD 1.3005 (fractal) For November 01, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The euro continues the consolidation that has existed for several days. If the euro cannot overcome the 1.3050 level it is likely that it begins to weaken and that in the next few days it will be negotiated on the levels of 1.28 and 1.27.


However, remember that there is a bullish primary trend line; it takes a lot of efforts to stay above it. A strong fundamental fact may carry the euro down and break its uptrend line. At the macro level, there is the potential for negative headlines from the European Union, still struggling with debt problems.

Therefore, we are very attentive to the breakdown of the main trendline. If you are buying this pair it is recommended to set your stop loss at 1.29. It is likely that at this level a break lower can be observed and you may make a big loss.


In the short term, we recommend buying the return of the daily support of 1.2950, with targets towards 1.3005 and 1.3120.


The technical indicator is about to blow up or down. We recommend caution.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook - For November 01, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The Australian dollar is above the 200 day moving average periods. It is a very strong uptrend at the moment; probably a closure above 1.04 will increase a bullish move higher 1.06. The nearest resistance is at 1.0435; the daily fractal is probably a correction at this level. If the pair returns to the level of 1.0345 it is recommended to buy with targets, until the weekly resistance levels are 1.0520 and 1.0640.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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Gold Inching Higher. Just Shy Of 1,730.00 Level. Hold On To Long Positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The bullish structure remains unchanged for now. The yellow metal has successfully pushed through the sloping trendline and just shy of our first measured upside target at 1,730.00 level. 1,715-17 levels should offer support for any intraday dips now. 1,700.00 followed by 1,685/90 levels are strong support levels while 1,730/50/75/95 are lined up resistances. It is recommended to continue buying intraday dips for now.


Trade Recommendations:


Hold long positions taken earlier. Stop at 1,680.00. Target Open.


Good Luck!


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Silver Remains Strong. Eying 33.30 Level Now Trend News




Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


There is absolutely no change in bullish structure. The first measured extension at 32.50 has just been met. As depicted above, bulls are now eying 33.30 level (R1). Buying intraday dips is recommended and it should be the trade mantra in general. 31.50 is intermediary support followed by 30.20; it has held well till now. The dropping resistance line is passing through 33.50 at the moment and a bullish break through it will be one more proof that the metal is heading towards fresh highs.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier. Buy intraday dips. Stop at 31.00, Target Open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Is Holding For Now. A Push Through 104.00 Levels Required Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair is holding 103.60/70 levels for now. A push above 104.00 level is required to register fresh highs at 104.75. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier. On the flip side, a drop below 102.50 would threaten a break down towards 101.70 level. Prices have bounced from the Fibonacci 0.5 support and more probable direction from here is a push through 104.00 level. Intermediary support is just above 102.00 level while resistance is placed at 104.20 level.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold long positions for now. Stop at break-even. Target at 104.75.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Stalling Ahead Of Recent Highs (1.5115). Take Profits On Long Positions... Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency seems to be facing stiff resistance just ahead of recent highs (1.5115). We have suggested to buy around the 1.4950 region, now it is recommended to take profits for now. Current chart setup indicates that single currency is headed higher; but if 1.5115 holds today, the next probable move should be lower from here, possibly towards 1.4875-1.4900 at least. 1.4700 support has held till now and that is a good sign for the bulls. A break higher above the sloping downtrend line would confirm move towards 1.53-1.54.


Trading Recommendations:


1. Take profits on long positions and remain flat. 2. Take partial profits, move stop to break-even levels and hold.


Good Luck!


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