Thursday 4 October 2012

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 4, 2012 Trend News


Despite the indecisive movements last week, the GBP/USD pair reacted strongly towards 1.6300 – 1.6350 zone confirming the bearish retracement scenario expected last week.

The bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern on the 4H chart which was confirmed last Friday, enabled 1.6060 in the short-term.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair expressed daily closure outside the depicted bullish channel which is probably an indicator for further bearish movements towards 1.6030 initially. However, having today's daily closure back inside the channel (above 1.6130 ) invalidated this short-term bearish view.

Support: 1.6100, 1.6066, 1.6030, and 1.5920

Resistance: 1.6150, 1.6260, 1.6300, and 1.6350.

Intraday support around 1.6160 was broken down last week leading the price to neutral zone testing 1.6130-1.6050, while a longer-term support is seen around the price level of 1.6060 corresponding to the lower limit of the 4H bullish channel and 1.5920 (50% Fibonacci Level).


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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for October 04,2012 Trend News


USD/CHF Elliott Wave



For the last few days the USD/CHF pair was trading in a sideways move, developing corrective wave (4) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (A) (coloured orange). Yesterday during the early European session we could observe descending movement from 0.9398 towards the 0.9354 level. Therefore, during the New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and price retrace back to 0.9392 level. At the moment the USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.9370 level and we are expecting to see price around 0.9160 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 0.9161(100% of wave 1), and Take Profit 2 at 0.8990 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 0.9490 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, and FOMC Meeting Minutes data that can change the rate of the pair.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9328 (S2) 0.9347 (S1) 0.9358 (PP) 0.9377 (R1) 0.9396 (R2) 0.9407 (R3) 0.9426

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9355 with Stop Loss 0.9490, Take Profit at 0.9161, and Take Profit 2 at 0.8990 are recommended.


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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 04,2012 Trend News


AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue). Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement towards the 1.0200 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this currency pair did not manage to hold this level and price started trading in a sideways move in area between 1.0200 and 1.0235 level. Today during the Asian session AUD/USD reached 1.0182 level and we can consider this move as the end of the wave (3). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0115 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0023 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0300 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD Building Approvals m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and U.S. Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, FOMC Meeting Minutes data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0156 (S2) 1.0183 (S1) 1.0200 (PP) 1.0227 (R1) 1.0254 (R2) 1.0271 (R3) 1.0298

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0260 with Stop Loss 1.0300, Take Profit at 1.0115, and Take Profit 2 at 1.0023 are recommended.


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