Friday 24 January 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting eight-day low 102.97 Thursday. It is undermined by flows to haven yen and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.24% to 13.77, S&P fell 0.89% overnight) amid emerging-markets turmoil as the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, South African rand and Argentine peso tumbled to multiyear lows against the dollar and fears of Chinese economic slowdown after HSBC China preliminary manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 this month from 50.5 in December. USD/JPY is also weighed by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.45 versus 81.19 early Thursday) on drop in Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI to 53.7 in January from 55.0 in December, smaller-than-expected 1.0% rise in U.S. existing-home sales to 4.87 million in December (versus 4.93 million forecast), weaker-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. Conference Board December index of leading economic indicators (versus +0.2% forecast), drop in Chicago Fed National Activity Index to +0.16 in December from +0.69 in November; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield fell to 2.7589, below the level before the Federal Reserve said in December it would scale back its bond-buying stimulus program; Japan exporter sales. But dollar sentiment soothed by smaller-than-expected 1000 increase in U.S. jobless claims to 326,000 in week ended Jan. 18 (versus forecast 330,000); rise in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to 5 in January from minus 3 in December, while the employment index jumped to 11 the highest since October 2011--from 0 in December. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by demand from the Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turned to bearish and bearish outside-day-range pattern is completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 101.75 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.55. The pivot point stands at 103.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.55 and the second target at 103.8.


Resistance levels:

103.55

103.8

104.1


Support levels:

101.75

101.55

101.25


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range after hitting three-week low 0.8961 Thursday. It is undermined by negative dollar sentiment, franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and Swiss central bank that increasing the buffer banks will need to hold against property exposure from 1% to 2%. "The franc appreciated because the decision could lead to repatriation into francs as Swiss banks try to replenish their capital positions," said Valentin Marinov, a currencies strategist at Citigroup. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday, stochastics is in bearish mode, MACD is turning bearish.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.89 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.888. The pivot point stands at 0.9015. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.904 and the second target at 0.9085.


Resistance levels:

0.904

0.908

0.912


Support levels:

0.89

0.888

0.885


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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GBP/USD has been moving within a wide-ranged price zone extending between 1.5900 and 1.6250 until November 27 when a bullish breakout took place.


Since this breakout, the bulls have been defending 1.6250 as a prominent support. Further successful retesting took place in mid-December that pushed the pair again to the upside.


Based on the above-mentioned bullish breakout, the GBP/USD pair had a projection target around 1.6630. As suggested, bearish reversal was strongly expressed off 1.6660 (30 pips higher). The pair has declined about 100 pips within one hour.


The 4H chart reveals prominent support levels located at 1.6490 then 1.6450. These levels will probably provide a valid BUY entry with SL as 4H closure below 1.6400.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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This week, the bulls managed to reach new price levels (around 1.1170) that haven't been reached since 2009. This bullish momentum is purely fundamental-induced due to the positive data from the United States.


This week, the U.S. dollar rose against most majors among expectations that Federal Reserve would cut the cash facilities at the next meeting after data showed signs of slowing economic recovery. However, the USD failed to keep its gains against the CAD as the USD/CAD pair was pushed again towards 1.1050.


The next prominent resistance level is located around 1.1230 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci Level of the bearish movement extending between March 2009 and July 2011.


The USD/CAD pair has a prominent support zone at 1.0700-1.0750 which represents the upper limit of consolidation range that got broken this month.


Any further testing of this zone will provide a valid BUY entry for the mid-term.


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The pair was pushed strongly to the upside after testing of the uptrend line that came to meet the pair around 1.0650. This was followed by bullish breakout above 1.0720 (previous congestion zone).


Recently, atypical shooting star daily candlestick was expressed at retesting of 1.1090 indicating some bearish rejection off there.


The USD/CAD has a dependable SUPPORT zone located at 1.0960-1.0900. Any further retesting may indicate a good BUY entry. SL should be daily closure below 1.0900.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Breakout above 1.3450 allowed the bulls to push within the bullish channel to hit further supply levels around 1.3650 then 1.3750. This bullish momentum was taking place until obvious bearish rejection was expressed at 1.3850 (failing to reach 100% Fibonacci Expansion at 1.3904).


A breakdown of the depicted bullish channel took place shortly after (January 2). This led to the previous bearish movement that almost reached 1.3520.


Bullish rejection took place at 1.3520 this week, this led to a strong bullish engulfing daily candlestick. This was expressed after few days of consolidation around SMA-100.


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Obvious bullish rejection took place off Price level of 1.3515 which is an important key-level on the intraday basis (corresponds to previous price ranges that goes back to December as well as the lower limit of the channel).


The pair is still moving within the depicted channel probably heading to test the upper limit at 1.3745 where bearish rejection is expected to be found.


On the other hand, the bears need to achieve 4H fixation above 1.3700-1.3740 in order to gather enough bullish momentum to push towards 1.3800. Otherwise, another bearish impulse towards 1.3530 would be expected.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Fundamentally, the pound sterling Pound rose quickly after showing a sharp decline in the unemployment rate. This enhanced the image on the economic recovery of the UK.


The bulls managed to break through 1.6450-1.6490 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels and the upper limit of the ongoing channel). This invalidated our short-term bearish scenario.


Today, the GBP/USD pair successfully hit 1.6660 after the positive fundamental data released this week.


A shooting-star 4H candlestick was expressed off there indicating a bearish correction towards 1.6560 initially.


Technically, the GBP/USD has two important DEMAND zones, one located at 1.6555-1.6575 and a more prominent one at 1.6450-1.6480.


As long as the view remains bullish, price level 1.6450 (61.8% Fibonacci) will probably offer a valid BUY entry at retesting (corresponding to backside of upper limit of the broken channel).


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 1.6829


R2: 1.6760


R1: 1.6709


Current Spot: 1.6668


S1: 1.6598


S2: 1.6528


S3: 1.6493


Technical summary:


The unexpected break above important resistance at 1.6499 is a total game changer here. The bearish picture we have been describing over the last month has worked pretty well until yesterday's break above 1.6499 this break is not consistent with the bearish count. We have been back to the drawing board looking for the best alternate count. The best count is that a new impulsive rally began at the 1.5914 low in early November. Wave 1 went from 1.5914 to 1.6996 and wave 2 went from 1.6996 down to 1.6214, which marked a 70.7% correction of wave 1. If this count is correct the wave 3 higher is in its very early parts. The minimum target for wave 3 will be at 1.7344, but we would not be surprised to see wave 3 extend higher towards 1.8013 in the longer term.


In the hort term we will be looking for resistance near 1.6690 for a correction towards support in the 1.6462-1.6493 area for the next rally higher towards strong resistance near 1.6920.


Trading recommendation:


The stop at 1.6505 was hit for a loss. We will buy EUR at 1.6475 with a stop at 1.6325.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased in investor risk aversion. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by negative dollar sentiment, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance, Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8225 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8195. The pivot point stands at 0.8315. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8355 and the second target at 0.839.


Resistance levels:

0.8355

0.839

0.8425

Support levels:

0.8225

0.8195

0.8145


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GOLD analysis for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,272.52 on high volume. We can observe rejection on the high volume from our FR 61.8 % at 1,230.00 which caused an upward movement. Since the price has broken in the background the level of 1,260.00 (our first target level) ,we may expect testing of major FE 100 % at 1,279.00-1,295.00. I placed submajor Fibonacci Expansion and i got submajor FE 100 % at price 1.274.00. Do not forget, gold is in bearish trend and we are now in bullish corrective phase. Selling gold at this stage looks risky since gold is in progress of bullish corrective phase,and we saw strong demand on the background. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,266.06


R2: 1,274.08


R3: 1,287.07


Support levels:


S1: 1,240.08


S2: 1,232.06


S3: 1,219.07


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with selling gold and try to catch bullish corrective phase.


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6617 on very high volume. Currently, we can observe strong demand on the market and selling looks very risky. The price has reached our third target level at 1.6490, and our next upper station is 1.6690 (Fibonacci Retracement 61.8 %). Do not forget EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6530


R2: 1.6588


R3: 1.6682


Support levels:


S1: 1.6342


S2 : 1.6284


S3: 1.6190


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair,watch for buying opportunities and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 141.43


R2: 141.03


R1: 140.74


Current spot: 140.45


S1: 139.59


S2: 138.61


S3: 137.99


Technical summary:


The red wave ii correction ended slightly before the ideal target at 142.64 (the high came in at 142.42). The powerful decline that followed the high at 142.42 confirms that red wave iii lower towards at least 139.59 is developing. However, we will be looking for a much deeper decline in red wave iii towards 137.99 as the most likely target for red wave iii.


In the short term we expect minor resistance at 140.74 will be able to protect the upside for the next part of the decline, but even if minor resistance at 140.74 is broken, strong resistance will be seen at 141.03 and this resistance should protect the upside without any problems.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short in EUR from 141.85 and lower your stop to 141.80. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell EUR close to 140.74 with the same stop at 141.80.


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#USDX analysis for January 24, 2014 Trend News

Yesterday we noted in our analysis how important is for the short-term trend the fact that the Dollar index has broken the upward sloping purple trend line. We noted that important support was 80.40 and the index has reached it.


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The rejection at 81.50 was a bad sign for bulls as we mentioned in previous posts and breaking below the trendline was the second sign that a reversal was to take place. Short-term support is found at 80.40 and if broken we could see the index move towards 80.10. Short-term resistance is found at 81.


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The daily chart of the Dollar index continues to show that once the trend line is broken, a correction is underway. Support is found at 80.10 where the purple trend line is found. Currently, the index is battling around our MA to determine trend. As long as the index trade above 79.70-80.10 we remain slightly positive. We will confirm our bullish view if prices break above 81.30-81.50 and will place a target at 82.50. As long as prices trade below 81.50, we remain sceptical regarding any positive turn around.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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Overview :



  • The NZD/USD pair is going to continue rise upright from the price of 0.8210. Equally importantly, it should note that 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels and the level 0.8215 are conforming at the same price for that this level is probably going to form triple bottom. Accordingly, the Kiwi is shown signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.8215, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart (the triple bottom) with a first target of 0.8303 and further to 0.8360 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide at 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels). On the other hand, in case of reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8200, then the market will lead to further decline to 0.8130, in order to indicating for a bearish market.


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Gold analysis for January 24, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has made another fake break down at $1,240 and despite reaching $1,233 it managed to reverse short-term trend and make a new higher high at $1,265. The upward move from $1,180 remains corrective as price action is overlapping. Gold price has finally reached the long-term downward sloping trend line at $1,265. We continue to believe that this upward bounce is only a corrective move and not a new impulsive wave.


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Gold price is trading mostly sideways inside the channel we show in the above chart. The blue resistance area that we noted yesterday has been reached and it is important now to see how Gold price reacts. Will bulls continue to support it? Important support for bulls is the $1,230 level where the lower boundaries of the channel are.


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Gold price on a daily level have touched the downward sloping long-term trend line. Now we are at a crucial price level that could decide if Gold price will move towards $1,200 or $1,400. We prefer the bearish scenario as we believe the upward move is corrective. Breaking above $1,270-80 will change our view to neutral. Our longer-term target remains $1,140.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 24, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: It was mentioned yesterday that the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD would soon go into a positive correlation. Based on what is happening now, the former has gained strength as well as the latter. The EUR/USD is currently testing the resistance line at 1.3700, and it could break it to the upside.


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USD/CHF: As a result of the gain of stamina of the EUR/USD, this pair has plunged seriously, heading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The USD is weak and this is visible on other pairs that have it as their base currency or counter currency. The price would now be going towards the support level at 0.8950.


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GBP/GBP/USD: This has always been a bull market in this week. The price has gone upwards by over 200 pips. The GBP is strong and this is visible on other pairs/crosses that have it as their base currency or counter currency (like GBPAUD and GBPJPY). The next distribution territory is to be reached at 1.6650. 3.pngUSD/JPY: It has always been noted that the recent bullish attempts in the market would be limited. The price plummeted significantly and later bounced off the demand level at103.00. The upward bounce is a temporary rally for the price going to test the aforementioned demand level again. 4.pngEUR/JPY: This market remains in the equilibrium zone as a result of the strength of the Euro and that of the Yen. Should one be stronger than the other, a serious directional move would have been noted in the chart. However, it seems that the price may break out to the downside. 5.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 24/01/2014 07:50 CET


The important intraday support was violated yesterday and since then the price hasn't made any new high yet. This type of price action might suggest more complex corrective cycle developing or the beginning of a new impulsive wave progression to the downside.


To confirm any of this two possibilities, traders must wait for a new high or a new low to gain more clues about further price action.


Please notice that momentum is more and more weaker and bearish divergence is being seen on daily, H4 and H1 time frames.



Support/Resistance:


1.1172 - Swing High


1.1128 - Intraday Resistance


1.1089 - Intraday Support |WR2|


1.1037 - WR1


1.1017 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


The key level to watch is the level of 1.1128. If this level is broken to the upside, then long positions should be opened with SL below the level of 1.1088 and TP at the level of 1.1172. If this level is not broken, then short positions should be opened with SL just above the level of 1.1129 and TP at the level of 1.1089 and 1.1017.


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Technical analysis of USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

The weaker existing home sales and unemployment data makes the US dollar weaker. The US housing market sales jumped in December for the first time in 5 months. Total existing home sales increased 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in December, whereas 4.94 million units had been expected. Comparing with the year of 2012, in 2013, sales were higher than 9.1% strongest performance since 2006. Jobless claims rose by 1000 to 326,000 in the period ended January 18, as The labour department reported yesterday. The US dollar is trading at the lowest point in the week.


In the hourly chart oscillators show a buy signal for the targets at 80.7-80.8


Support- 80.35, 80.0.


Resistance- 80.77, 81.4.


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Technical analysis of gold for January 24, 2014 Trend News

Gold is in the first strongest intraday rally in the new year of 2014 trading at a 5-week high. Looking at gold chart, we see that this yellow metal has corrected for more than a year now. It seems gold could be making a triangle or a flat. As we have consecutive abc's in the daily chart. In the hourly chart, oscillators showing sell signal with an overbought indication. Yesterday, we recommended a buy call with sl at $1,230. After the existing home sales and unemployment data, fireworks started in gold and it made the strongest rally with all our targets met intraday. Today we recommend a sell call. If gold unable to cross the resistance level of $1,268, we can see new lower levels before it make a bottom.


Recommendation- Sell with sl $1,268, targets are $1,255 and $1,250, cmp $1,264.


GOLDDaily3.pngGOLDWeekly.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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There is no economic data to be released in Japan and the US today, so there is probability for this pair to move with low volatility.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3 : 104.03.


Resistance. 2 : 103.83.


Resistance. 1 : 103.63.


Support. 1 : 103.38.


Support. 2 : 103.18.


Support. 3 : 102.97.


DESCRIPTION:


Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.97) and resistance 3 (104.03). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.


Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, Belgian NBB Business Climate.The US will not release any economic data today, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low with medium volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3756.


Strong Resistance:1.3747.


Original Resistance: 1.3734.


Inner Sell Area: 1.3721.


Target Inner Area: 1.3688.


Inner Buy Area: 1.3655.


Original Support: 1.3642.


Strong Support: 1.3629.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.3620.


DESCRIPTION:


Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3642 and 1.3734. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3629 and by 1.3747 as strong resistance.


If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3620 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3756 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3655 and at 1.3721, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3688.


Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of Silver for January 24, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold rallied towards resistance at $1,267.00 yesterday. This surprising move also tested the dropping trend line resistance. It is still recommended to remain flat and watch for a reaction here.


2. Immediate resistance is still at $1,267.00/70, while supports are spread through $1,230.00/32.00, $1,220.00/10.00, and $1,184.00 respectively.


3. Structure reveals that once $1,267.00/70.00 resistance is taken out, a major correction should be expected towards $1,210.00/15.00; before the next rally materializes.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat again, look to buy lower.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 24, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair remains unchanged since a few trade sessions, drifting sideways between 140.50 and 142.00. It is recommended to remain flat for now and initiate short positions around 143.00/50.


2. Immediate resistance is at 143.00, followed by 145.00/50, while support is at 140.50 (intermediary), followed by 138.50, 134.00 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that a rally towards 143.00/50 should materialize. In case of failure at that level, the pair should be sold. A push above 143.00 would target 144.50.


Trading recommendations:


Sell on rallies into the 143.00/50 region, stop is above 145.50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 24, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair reverses just shy - by 20 pips - of the fibonacci convergence at 1.5145/50, as seen on the chart here. It is recommended to sell rallies from here on. The risk remains at 1.5180.


2.Immediate resistance is at 1.5140/50, followed by 1.5250, while supports are spread through the 1.47000/80, followed by 1.4550/60 respectively.


3. The structure reveals that a major top could be in place around the 1.5140/50 region. Coming below 1.47000 would confirm it. An Engulfing Bearish trade signal has appeared on the daily chart that indicates the next move is lower.


Trading recommendations.


Sell on rallies from here, stop is at 1.5180, target is open.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 24, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: Finally, the USDX was able to consolidate again below the 200 SMA, after it had found dynamic resistance at that level. Now, the USDX is consolidating below the level of 80.62. It is very likely that the USDX start forming a higher low pattern, to fall to the support level of 80.11. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.


usdxdaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX found resistance at the level of 81.29 and from there, the USDX had a profound drop to support level of 80.49. Previously, the USDX had formed a head and shoulders pattern, so that the change in the trend was imminent. The USDX is below the 200 SMA and if it manages to break the support level of 80.40, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.25. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


usdxh4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is consolidating below the resistance level of 80.59, after having had a rather weak American session. Now, the USDX is forming a bearish pattern below that level. If the USDX manages to break the support level of 80.35, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.15. The MACD indicator is entering extremely oversold zone and in neutral territory.


usdxh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 80.35, take profit is at 80.15, and stop loss is at 80.55.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is consolidating above the level of 1.6540, after it has made a very bullish move vertically. If this pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6663, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6851. Furthermore, this pair is forming a bullish pattern below the level of 1.6663, so that it waits for this pair make corrective movements. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


gbpusddaily.png


H4 chart: During this week, this pair has formed 3 bullish patterns successfully and is expected to begin to form another one to continue rising to the level of 1.6700. If the pair manages to break that level, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6795, which is very close to a bullish trend line. For now, we recommend caution when placing buy orders. The MACD indicator is entering extremely overbought zone.


gbpusdh4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD has consolidated above the point of control at the level of 1.6600, after this pair has made a breakout at the level of 1.6578. Now this pair is trying to break the resistance level of 1.6629. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6700. However, it is expected that this pair perform slow movements during today's session, as the bullish trend is very strong and some oscillators have started showing overbought levels. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


gbpusdh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6629, take profit is at 1.6700, and stop loss is at 1.6558.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 24, 2014 Trend News

eurusdm15.png


Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair resistance was broken and it was turned to support at the price of 1.3653 yesterday (January 23, 2014), therefore the pair has already formed a new strong support at the 1.3653 level. Moreover, after it had closed above it today, the pair started signing the bullish market, Additionaly, It should also be noted that the RSI has still called for uptrend at the level mentioned before. Consequently, the price of the EUR/USD pair indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3656 with the first target of 1.3700 in order to form a double top, and continues towards 1.3748 above the weekly resistance 1, as well as to try hit the weekly resistance 2. However, in case of reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the new support level of 1.3653, thereupon the market will lead to further decline to 1.36 for today.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 23/01/2014 15:50 CET


The corrective structure on hourly time frame is getting more complex and time-consuming as the price is rather close to invalidate the main impulsive count. The critical area for impulsive count not to be invalidated is between weekly pivot at the level of 141.42 and intraday support at the level of 141.20. Any breakout below this level means that the main count is invalidated and lower market prices are expected.



Support/Resistance:


142.90 - Swing High


142.32 - WR1


142.05 - Intraday Resistance


141.42 - Weekly Pivot


141.20 - Intraday Support


140.49 - 140.30 - Technical Support Zone


Trading recommendations:


Short positions should be opened only if the level of 141.20 is violated. In that case SL should be placed above the level of 141.42 and Tp should be placed at the level of 140.48.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 22, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is under pressure. It is supported by positive dollar sentiment(ICE spot dollar index last 81.19 versus 81.09 early Wednesday), higher U.S. Treasury yields amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue winding down its bond-buying program at the end of its two-day meeting on Jan. 29, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The BOJ on Wednesday unanimously maintained its policy of increasing the monetary base at an annual pace of Y60 trillion-Y70 trillion and demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 103.5 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 103.2. The pivot point stands at 104.5. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 104.75 and the second target at 104.9.


Resistance levels:

104.75

104.9

105.05


Support levels:

103.5

103.2

102.9


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 23, 2014 Trend News

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:


USD/CHF is trading in a lower range and is expected to continue the trend. It is supported by positive dollar sentiment and a drop in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to 36.4 in January from 39.4 in December. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is bearish in overbought zone.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.898. The pivot point stands at 0.9085. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.913 and the second target at 0.9155.


Resistance levels:

0.913

0.9155

0.9185


Support levels:

0.9

0.898

0.895


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

NZDUSDM30.png


Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross and positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is neutral, the bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8255 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8225. The pivot point stands at 0.8355. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.839 and the second target at 0.8425.


Resistance levels:

0.839

0.8425

0.8455

Support levels:
0.8366

0.8225

0.8195


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GOLD analysis for January 23, 2014 Trend News

goldh123.png


Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,247.98 on high volume. We can observe rejection on the high volume from our FR 61.8 % at 1,230.00 which caused an upward movement. Since the price has broken in the background the level of 1,254.00, we may expect testing of previous swing high at 1,260.00 and possible testing of major FE 100 % at 1,279.00-1,295.00. Do not forget, gold is in bearish trend and we are now in bullish corrective phase. Selling gold at this stage looks risky since gold is in progress of bullish corrective phase, and we saw volume leveling off in the background. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,241.58


R2: 1,243.42


R3: 1,246.40


Support levels:


S1: 1,235.62


S2: 1,233.78


S3: 1,230.80


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with selling gold and try to catch bullish corrective phase.


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 23, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


GBP/JPY is expected to trade in range. It is supported by demand from the Japan importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japan exporter sales. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, 5- and 15-day moving averages are falling. but stochastics is bullish in oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.65 and the second target at 174.15 in mind. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.25. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 170.85. The pivot point stands at 172.25.


Resistance levels:

173.65

174.15

174.85


Support levels:

171.25

170.85

170.40


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 23, 2014 Trend News

eurnzdh123jan.png


Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards,as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6434 on very high volume. As you can see in the chart, after the selling climatic action at 1.6270, EUR/NZD started upward movement. Currently, we can observe strong demand on the market and selling looks very risky. Price has reached our second target level at 1.6400, and our next upper station is 1.6490 (previous swing high). Do not forget EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6332


R2: 1.6354


R3: 1.6389


Support levels:


S1: 1.6262


S2 : 1.6240


S3: 1.6205


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair,watch for buying opportunities and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

EUR-NZD.gif


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6499


R2: 1.6469


R1: 1.6438


Current spot: 1.6428


S1: 1.6392


S2: 1.6358


S3: 1.6320


Technical summary:


The corrective cycle from 1.6238 has become more complex than firstly expected. We do however think that a top is close and the next impulsive decline ready to take over again. However, to confirm that the next impulsive decline is developing, we need a break below support at 1.6320. As long as support at 1.6320 holds firm and protects the downside, we could see a little more upside towards 1.6473, but at no point a break above resistance at 1.6499 can be allowed.


A break below 1.6320 will call for a decline towards 1.6237 on the way lower towards 1.6127.


Trading recommendation:


We booked a nice profit at 1.6340. We will sell EUR again here at 1.6428 with a stop at 1.6505.


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