Monday 27 October 2014

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 27/10/2014 18:20 CET


The corrective wave development to the upside look like completed and any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 136.48 is the first confirmation of a bearish bias. There is however a slight probability that the market might go a little bit higher and breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 137.24, but it should be capped at the previous supply zone between the levels of 137.80 and 137.93.


Support/Resistance:


138.11 - WR1


137.80 - 137.93 - Supply Zone


137.24 - Intraday Resistance


136.66 - Weekly Pivot


136.48 - Intraday Support


136.11 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 137.24 and TP at the level of 135.20.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 27/10/2014 08:20 CET


This market is still in the range zone between the levels of 1.1182 and 1.1294. The corrective cycle is getting more complex and time consuming, but the bias is still bullish as long as the level of 1.1080 is not broken (purple impulsive wave count invalidation). The first clue that the uptrend will be continued is impulsive breakout above the golden channel line, weekly pivot level and intraday resistance at the level of 1.1262. Otherwise the market might still penetrate the lower levels of the price range.


Support/Resistance:


1.1070 - 1.1080 - Demand Zone


1.1128 - WS2


1.1182 - Intraday Support


1.1185 - WS1


1.1240 - Weekly Pivot


1.1262 - Intraday Resistance


1.1293 - Intraday Resistance


1.1296 - WR1


1.1354 - WR2


1.1384 - Swing High


1.1409 - WR3


Trading recommendations:


Traders should wait for an important level breakout and trade accordingly.


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USDCAD Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.0810 (Aug 29 low), the fall from 1.1385 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Deeper decline is still possible, and the target would be at 1.1150 area. Resistance is at 1.1300, a break above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0810 has resumed, then another rise towards 1.1500 could be seen.



usdcad chart






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USDCHF Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF remains in uptrend from 0.9370, as long as 0.9440 support holds, the fall from 0.9557 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Another rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 0.9650 area. Only break below 0.9440 support could trigger another fall to 0.9300 area.



usdchf chart






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USDJPY Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY stays in the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 105.32, the fall from 108.34 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 109.50 area. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 108.34 already, then deeper decline to 106.50 area could be seen.



usdjpy chart






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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD moved sideways in a range between 0.8642 and 0.8898. As long as 0.8898 resistance holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9401, another fall to 0.8400 area could be expected after consolidation. Only break above 0.8898 resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.



audusd chart






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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.6524, the sideways movement from 1.5951 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at 1.6226, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall to 1.5600 area is possible. Only break above 1.6226 resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.5874 already, then further rise to 1.6400 area could be seen.



gbpusd chart






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EURUSD Daily Analysis - October 28, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD remains in downtrend from 1.2867, as long as 1.2750 resistance holds, the rise from 1.2613 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Another fall to test 1.2500 support could be expected after consolidation, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 1.3700 (Jul 1 high), then next target would be at 1.2200 area. Only break above 1.2750 resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.



eurusd chart






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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


Two months ago, the bearish swing (initiated in March 2014) was stopped at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper bearish one.


A bullish breakout off the movement channel took place in August. Since then, the pair has been trending-up within the depicted bullish channels.


As mentioned before, breaching the price zone of 1.1230-1.1260 and fixation above it triggered new bullish impulse. Strong bullish momentum has been expressed for a couple of weeks so far. This movement was maintained within a steeper bullish channel.


Bulls were pushing beyond the upper limit of the movement channel. The USD/CAD pair looked overbought on the daily chart.


Few days ago, the USD/CAD pair tested the upper limit of the steeper channel. This corresponded to the price level of 1.1370. Immediate bearish rejection was expressed as anticipated after such a long bullish swing resulting in a bearish correction towards 1.1200.


Recommendations:


Conservative traders should be looking for short positions around the price zone of 1.1270-1.1290 ( low risk/reward ratio ) with SL located just above 1.1320.


On the other hand, for risky traders, 4H fixation below 1.1230 - 1.1210 ( 50% Fibonacci level ) is another valid signal with a higher risk/reward ratio.


Initial targets are located at 1.1180-1.1160.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards below the depicted downtrend line since July 15 when the ongoing downtrend was initiated.


Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180, 1.6630 and 1.6400 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.


The price zone of 1.6060 - 1.6090 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days since September 9. However, the bears quickly managed to push below reaching down to 1.5890 (depicted on the chart).


Price level of 1.5890 provided evident bullish recovery. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick is manifest on the chart.


Recently, the bulls has pushed above the downtrend line. Bullish breakout off the descending-wedge pattern is already manifest on the chart.


Bullish fixation above 1.6060 is needed to maintain the bullish scenario.This will probably liberate a strong bullish swing towards 1.6250 initially ( significant bottom established in February 2014 and 23.6% Fibonacci level ).


Trading recommendations:


Initial bullish fixation above 1.6090 ( the broken trend line ) indicates a valid BUY entry towards 1.6250 and 1.6310. Stop Loss should be located below 1.6015.


Stepping above 1.6180 ( last week's high ) probably confirms a longer-term bullish correction towards 1.6380-1.6400 where 38.2% Fibonacci level is located.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.54% to 16.11) as U.S. stocks rose Friday (S&P 500 closed up 0.71% at 1,964.58) amid fading concerns over slowing global growth after better-than-expected factory and GDP data out of China, and renewed expectations for central bank policy accommodation--tame U.S. CPI data suggests the Federal Reserve would be in no hurry to raise interest rates after the conclusion of its bond-buying program. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and caution ahead of Fed's monetary decision Wednesday.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.35 and the second target at 108.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.05. The pivot point is at 107.55.


Resistance levels:

108.35

108.75

109


Support levels:

107.35

107.05

106.75


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EUR/NZD analysis for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6086 in an ultra high volume below average. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,6090 is on the test so be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage. According to the 1H time frame, we may see potential end of the bearish corrective phase (abcd). We also got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,6090. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we may see futher upward movement. Anyway, I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6090 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6015. Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6194


R2: 1.6222


R3: 1.6268


Support levels:


S1: 1.6102


S2: 1.6074


S3: 1.6028


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% is on the test


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Gold : analysis for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,230.00. We are facing low volume day and low activity on the market. We are still waiting for larger activity. Our submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,227.00 held successful, so selling gold at this stage looks risky According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below average. If the price breaks the level of 1,227.00 in a high volume, we may see testing of Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,210.00. Otherwise, if we see larger bullish reaction from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, a bullish continuation phase will be possible.We got first resistance at the price of 1,237.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,230.17


R2: 1,230.97


R3: 1,232.27


Support levels


S1: 1,227.57


S2: 1,226.77


S3: 1,225.47


Trading recommendations: Selling gold at this stage looks risky since Fibonacci retracement 38.2% held successful


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has pulled back as expected from last week after being unable to break above 86. The resistance at 86 is a strong level and breaking above it will give me a buy signal with 87 as the 1st target. Support is found at 85.20-85.30. My longer-term view remains bullish in the Dollar index as the bullish flag pattern gives me 90 as the 1st target.


usdx.jpg

Black line = previous resistance


The Dollar index remains above the cloud support and above the black trend line resistance that was broken. Support is found at 85.30. The 38% retracement of the entire rise is at 84 and we could still see a pull back towards that level if selling pressures against the Dollar continue. Breaking above 86 will cancel most probabilities of seeing a pull back below 85.30.


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The daily chart continues to be bullish as far as ichimoku cloud indicators are concerned and the bullish flag pattern that I mentioned last week still holds as a pattern and I still have 90 as my next target. Concluding I remain longer-term bullish and I will not expect a push towards 84 if we break above 86.


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Gold Technical analysis for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold is trading sideways and has formed a bearish flag pattern. This sideways action following the sharp decline from $1,255 is not an encouraging sign for bulls. As I have been saying for the last few weeks, the longer-term trend remains bearish and despite the bounce from $1,180, we should consider this bounce only as a corrective bounce and that selling pressures should resume soon.


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Breaking below the $1,225 low will confirm the end of the sideways corrective move and the start of a new downward move towards $1,190-$1,180. The upward bounce from $1,180 has most probably finished at $1,255 and as I said in previous posts, I prefer to look for sell opportunities as my longer-term target remains at $1,050.


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In the 4-hour cahrt, we observe that price is still inside the Ichimoku cloud and this support still holds. Breaking below $1,225 will push Gold price out of the support area and will be a sell signal. Resistance is found at $1,240 and any bounce should find a strong resistance and a lot of sellers at that point.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 27 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6161


R2: 1.6137


R1: 1.6115


Current spot: 1.6099


S1: 1.6090


S2: 1.6079


S3: 1.6056


Technical summary:


The correction from 1.6216 has been unfolding according to our expectation. We are still looking for a decline to 1.6056 to end red wave ii and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in red wave iii higher to 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6800. Short term, only an unexpected break above 1.6191 will indicate that red wave ii ended early and red wave iii is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We will buy EUR at 1.6065 with a stop at 1.6000 or upon a direct break above 1.6191.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 27, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.82


R2: 137.35


R1: 137.00


Current spot: 136.81


S1: 136.50


S2: 136.29


S3: 136.06


Technical summary:


The break above 137.00 confirmed that the correction in wave B still was unfolding and that we should be looking for a move closer to 137.82 before wave B finally is over and wave C lower to 130.73 will be ready to take over. In the short term we could see a move slightly lower to 136.49 and maybe even to 136.06 before the final rally higher in wave B to 137.82 and then wave C should take over for a decline to 130.73.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 137.10 was hit. We will re-sell EUR at 137.70 with a stop at 138.10.


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