Crude oil - Mathematical analysis with Murray Lines for August 20, 2013 Trend News

Daily Chart

Crude oil has been in a downtrend for second day, trading at 105.61; this time below the 6/8 (red line), which is considered a strong point of reverse, according to the theory of Murrey, and below the first daily resistance. And that was the result of investors worried about a possible reduction of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the economy and crude supply reports expected. Therefore, we can expect an even steeper fall today and tomorrow, according to Murrey lines, in this time frame could be extended to 103.13, where the line is located 5/8, it would become an important support.

4-Hour Chart

The 4H chart can also at this time that crude oil is on the basis of its trading range set in line 3/8 (green line) and may reverse to 106.25, where there is the line 4/8 (blue line), which now becomes a major resistance area, and then continues its downtrend to 104.69 first line where 2/8 (red line) considered as an important point of reverse.

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Wave analysis on USD/JPY for August 20, 2013 Trend News

Wave analysis:

Yesterday’s low trading activity made the USD/JPY pair come back to the early trading level after testing the level of 98. Low price growth from its minimum level in the Thursday’s session may be considered as the currency pair’s attempts to form 5th wave in terms of uptrend, which started its development on August 8. Meanwhile, the possibility that the price may reverse to the lows of the early month cannot be rolled out at the current state of affairs.

Targets for down wave:

96.35 – 23.6% of Fibonacci

95.18 – 11.4% of Fibonacci

Targets for up wave:

98.90 – 50.0% of Fibonacci

100.04 – 61.8% of Fibonacci

Summary and trading recommendations:

The trading instrument greatly complicated the wave structure, which now looks rather indefinitely. The quotes rising may continue with the targets situated near the 98.90 and 100.04 levels that make, according to Fibonacci, 50.0% and 61.8%. Within the rising wave, there is a possibility of a new upward trend. The wave structure seems quite completed that proves the instrument readiness to create new uptrend section.

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#USDX analysis for August 20, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index continues to trade sideways above 81.00 but there is no clear upward impulsive move and buyers seem weak in order to break resistance levels. Taking into consideration the previous downward trend and the current sideways consolidation, a bearish flag pattern is being formed.

The 81.00 price level is expected to break downwards and give most probably a new low towards 80.90 where the recent low at 80.86 will be tested. If however prices break above 81.45 we will change our view to bullish once again. As always we give importance to support and resistance levels. Even if a level is not broken, it gives us an equally important signal as when it is broken. Inability to break a price level means weakness and rejection. This in turn means that prices will move the other way.

Support is found at 80.90 and 80.86. Resistance at 81.45. We prefer to be neutral or bearish as long as prices trade below 81.45. If resistance breaks we could go long with 81.80 target. Next resistance at 82.00 and 82.50. On the daily chart trend remains down as lower highs and probably a new lower low keep trend in favor of bears. If the blue support trend line is broken, then the longer term bullish scenario will be challenged. If the downward sloping blue trend line is broken upwards we coulld see a test of the MA region at 82.40.

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Silver resistance is at 24.80/25.00. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has failed ahead of resistance at 24.80/25.00 for now. It is quite possible that the rally from 18.00 to sub 23.00 levels could be a counter trend within the larger bear trend. Immediate Daily Chart resistance is at 24.80/25.00 levels and the bulls need to break that to confirm a trend reversal. Until then, it could be safe to assume that a major retracement, towards 20.50/70 (the past resistance turned support region) or a new low below 18.00 could be underway. Aggressive trade may initiate fresh short positions 23.00/40 region, risk would be 24.80.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Initiate short positions between 23.00/40, stop 25.00

Conservative: Flat

Good luck!

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Gold resistance at 1,390/1,420 levels. Exit long positions Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The existing setup depicted here, warns of a retracement/reversal and hence it is recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier. Resistance is in the 1,390.00/1,420.00 region and bulls have failed to get past either of them. It remains possible that the metal atleast retraces to 1,300/10.00 levels or even further down before next rally materializes. Furthermore, it also remains possible that the entire rally from 1,180.00 to 1,380.00 could be a retracement of the existing larger downtrend and a new low may be formed below 1,180.00 in the coming weeks. Aggressive traders may initiate short positions around 1,370.00 levels, risk would be 1,390.00.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Initiate short positions around 1,370.00, stop at 1,390.00

Conservative: Flat

Good luck!

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USD/CAD H1 analysis for August 20, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 20/08/2013 08:30 CET

Brown trend line has been broken and the impulsive bearish count has been invalidated. Currently, desplite making new local intraday high, price is unable to break 61%Fibo at 1.0377.

From Elliott Wave point of view current wave progression looks like a very complex and time consuming wave iv, so there is still one more wave to the downside missing as long as 1.0401 level is not broken.

Current shape of wave iv is ABC in three waves, so it might indicate, that an Ascending Triangle wave iv pattern is unfolding and there are two waves missing to complete this pattern: wave D and E.

The Key Level zone in grey rectangle must hold if further upside wave progression is to be made. If price breaks the level of 61%Fibo, it might indicate ABC Irregular Flat wave iv pattern and not a Triangle pattern.

Support/Resistance:

1.0273 - Swing Low

1.0288 - WS1

1.0283 - 1.0291 - INTRADAY DEMAND ZONE

1.0332 - Weekly Pivot

1.0339 - Intraday Support

1.0356 - 1.0362 - KEY LEVEL

1.0376 - Technical Resistance

1.0377 - WR1 | 61%Fibo|

1.0401 - Invalidation Line

1.0415 - WR2

Trading recommendation:

Due to higher time frame cycles bias is still to the downside.

Any price below 61%Fibo should be sold with SL just above this level. First TP is at 1.0339 and if this one is broken, then 1.0313.

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EURJPY Bulls in control. Remain long above 128.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is setting up for an extension above 130/132 levels in the sessions to come. It is recommended to remain long for now and continue buying on dips further. Resistance is at 123.00/50 and 133.80/134.00; while support is 128.00 (intermediary), followed by 125.00 and 119.00 respectively. An increasing support wedge seems to be forming which favors break out on the north side. A push through 132.00 would confirm the same. On the other side, only a drop below 128.00 levels would be a concern for bulls. Looking higher for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, set stop below 128.00.

Good luck!

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GBPCHF Bearish view intact. Remain short Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

There is no significant change as depicted here; a new high was attempted but failed back at 0.618. It is recommended to remain short for now and build further on rallies. Resistance is the 1.48 level, followed by 1.5; while support is 1.4 respectively. Looking into the trend, which is down; a major down leg should materialize soon, extending below 1.4 levels in the coming weeks. On the flip side, a sustained break of the downtrend line depicted here, and subsequent break of 1.48 levels would negate the bearish structure expected at the moment. Looking lower for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop above 1.4750, target is open.

Good luck!

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