EUR/NZD analysis for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways around the price of 1.5800. We are facing very low volume on the market, so we are waiting for a larger volume and stonger price action. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand on the market, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD looks risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5800 is broken, so we may see possible testing the level of 1.5520 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). If the price breaks the level of 1.5800 in a high volume, we may see possible testing the level of 1.5520 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%), Anyway, if we see larger reaction from buyers around the level of 1.5800, a bullish corrective phase will be possible.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5850

R2: 1.5880

R3: 1.5930

Support levels:

S1: 1.5751

S2: 1.5721

S3: 1.5672

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since our Fibonacci expansion 100% got broken.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the negative yen sentiment as speculation persists that Prime Minister Abe might call for an early election in December and delay a planned sales tax hike. USD/JPY is also supported by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan monetary policy and demand from Japan's importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.345% versus 2.359% late Wednesday), softer dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.77 versus 87.86 early Thursday) after more-than-expected 290,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 8 (versus forecast 281,000), subdued investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.91% to 13.79) as U.S. stocks surrendered gains after hitting record highs overnight (S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,046.18 but closed up just 0.05% at 2,039.33), Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 116.90 and the second target at 117.30. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 115.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 114.90. The pivot point is at 115.70.

Resistance levels:

116.90

117.30

117.55

Support levels:

115.35

114.90

114.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a higher range. It is undermined by the softer dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.77 versus 87.86 early Thursday) after more-than-expected 290,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 8 (versus forecast 281,000); subdued investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.91% to 13.79) as U.S. stocks surrendered gains after hitting record highs overnight (S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,046.18 but closed up just 0.05% at 2,039.33) and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross amid weak yen sentiment and franc demand on soft GBP/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comments:

Daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels, MACD histogram bars are turning negative.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.97 and the second target at 0.9740. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9580. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9540. The pivot point is at 0.9610.

Resistance levels:

0.97

0.9740

0.9775

Support levels:

0.9580

0.9540

0.95

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Previously around 61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels depicted on the chart, obvious bearish pressure was expressed. A short position was suggested then and it got triggered few days later. The market successfully pushed below 1.6100 shortly after.

Bullish recovery was expressed off price levels of 1.5940 and 1.5880. Bullish engulfing daily candlesticks emerging off these levels are depicted on the chart.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 constituted a prominent SUPPLY zone. Since then, the pair has been moving sideways. Recent bearish breakout took place this week.

Despite the bullish breakout off the depicted bearish channel on the daily chart, bulls have failed to fixate above price levels of 1.5870 and 1.5945.

Instead, daily fixation below 1.5870 ( Note both Yesterday and Wednesday's full body bearish daily candlesticks ) put further bearish pressure on the pair to reach 1.5780, 1.5700 and 1.5650 where the back side of the mentioned bearish channel is located.

Generally, bullish recovery should be anticipated after such a strong bearish momentum.

4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.

Two weeks ago, bulls managed to push beyond the upper limit of the channel. However, the GBP/USD pair was trapped between the backside of the channel (1.5860) and price level of 1.6140.

This week, the bears managed to break below the recent low around 1.5790. This exposes a potential target at 1.5700 and 1.5650 where the backside of the broken channel is roughly located.

On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.5830 and 1.5870 is needed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum. Note that the current bearish movement maybe a bearish trap as the pair looks oversold on the 4H chart.

Conservative traders should wait for a pull-back towards 1.5800-1.5820 for a possible SELL entry.

On the other hand, risky traders can benefit of the current low prices and take a BUY position around the current prices with tight stop loss ( DAILY closure below the entry levels ).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a two-week high 0.7927 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the softer dollar sentiment, Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment and on buoyant NZD/CAD cross amid weak oil prices, Kiwi demand on soft GBP/NZD and speculation about earlier-than-expected RBNZ rate rises in 2015 and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the soft commodity prices and subdued investor risk appetite as well as positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7805. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7770. The pivot point stands at 0.7895. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7945 and the second target at 0.7965.

Resistance levels:

0.7945

0.7980

0.8

Support levels:

0.7805

0.7770

0.7750

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. Undermined by continued impact from dovish Bank of England quarterly inflation report; sterling sales on cross trades versus major currencies; and subdued investor risk appetite. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the contained investor risk appetite, Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD indicator is bullish, slow stochastic measure stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 181.50. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 181.05. The pivot point stands at 182.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 183.35 and the second target at 183.95.

Resistance levels:

183.35

183.95

184.75

Support levels:

181.50

181.05

180.75

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 14 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5877

R2: 1.5853

R1: 1.5833

Current spot: 1.5817

S1: 1.5808

S2: 1.5792

S3: 1.5758

Technical summary:

We have seen a temporary low at 1.5724, but the rally of this low, does look corrective. We expect one final low closer to 1.5705 to be seen before wave 4 is over and wave 5 higher towards 1.6446 and 1.6800 will take over. In the short term, a break below support at 1.5808 and more importantly a break below support at 1.5758 will confirm that final decline towards 1.5705.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.5720 with a stop at 1.5520.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 145.92

R2: 145.50

R1: 1.4505

Current spot: 144.65

S1: 144.22

S2: 143.92

S3: 143.60

Technical summary:

The decline from 144.71 has been way to small wave iv correction. So, we have changed our count slightly that wave iii ended at 144.20 and wave iv corrected exactly 23.6% of wave iii. That means we are currently in wave v higher towards 145.92 as the first possible target, with the possibility of an extension higher towards 148.30. Short-term support at 144.22 ideally will protect the downside for the break above 144.71 confirming the rally higher to 145.92.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy a test of 144.22 or a break above 144.71 with a stop at 144.00 and we will place take profit at 145.75.

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#USDX Technical analysis for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index remains inside the bullish channel, above the cloud support and has made one attempt to break above the triangle formation and is now back testing it. The trend remains bullish. I believe we could soon see a move towards 88.65 but bulls should be very cautious.

The 87.65 is critical short-term support. If the index breaks below that level, then we can say that the break out of the triangle was fake and we could see a strong short-term bearish reversal that could bring the index back at 87 at least. I believe Dollar bulls will be firmly in control again as we move towards the final upward move that I expect will start today or Monday the latest. This view is canceled if we break the support at 87.65.

In the daily chart all ichimoku indicators remain fully bullish. The bullish flag pattern remains valid. Price is above the tenkan-sen at 87.55, so we have a confluence of short- and medium-term support levels in the area of 87.50-87.65. This is a supporting zone that in order for our bullish scenario to come true, the index must hold above it on a daily basis.

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Gold Technical analysis for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price is breaking below short-term support levels and is giving bearish signals in the short-term charts also. There is increased probability that the upward corrective bounce ended at $1,178 and that we start a new downward move that is expected to reach $1,050.

Black line = resistance

Blue line = support

Gold price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud. This is a bearish sign for the short-term. Support is found is at $1,146 and if broken I expect to see new lows and $1,100 to be challenged. The trend remains bearish with lower lows and lower highs from $1,178 where we saw the reversal exactly at the 38% retracement. My view remains bearish and in the following chart the $1,050 target is also justified by a longer-term chart.

In the above weekly 15-year chart, we observe that the 50% retracement of the entire rise is below $1,100 and above $1,045. So, I expect to at least test that area of support soon. The most probable retracement for the completion of the pullback is usually the 61.8% retracement but I prefer to see first if we touch the 50% and then the target lower. Therefore, I remain bearish and as I mentioned yesterday, breaking below $1,159 and $1,155 will be a bearish sign. Next, we need to see a break of $1,146 to confirm the down trend.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 14/11/2014 10:50 CET

The overall count has been little changed when the new high was made. The current count doesn't place a top for blue wave 5 yet and still indicates that the corrective cycle to the downside has not been completed yet. The intraday support at the level of 144.71 is the key intraday level to the downside. If this level is not broken, then the upside target then is at the level of 146.31. Please notice a multiple bearish divergence on the momentum oscillator that supports bearish view.

Support/Resistance:

146.31 - WR2

144.71 - Intraday Support

144.55 - WR1

143.55 - Technical Support

143.01 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 144.69 with SL above the level of 145.05 and TP at the level of 143.35.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The GBP/USD pair has already formed a strong resistance level at 1.5733. This level already presents the last weekly pivot point, but today it coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, after it could not close above this level of 1.5733, the pair started signing for a bearish market at this spot. Moreover, it should be noted that if the trend is ascending, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. But today, we note the opposite picture. Therefore, the pair will be in a downside rather convincing momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5733, it will be a good sign to sell below this area with the first targets of 1.5680 and 1.5654 to test the double bottom on H1 chart. On the other hand, the stop losses should be placed above 1.5750.

Intraday technical levels :

Date and Time:14/11/2014 10:54

Pair:GBP/USD

• R3: 1.5847


• R2: 1.5813


• R1: 1.5760


• PP: 1.5726


• S1: 1.5673


• S2: 1.5639


• S3: 1.5586

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• According to previous events, the price of EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2510 and 1.2415. The level of 1.2415 is going to form the double bottom in H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the market was not stable and the trend was not also so clear (sideways channel like a triangle) this week. We expect a bullish market today from the area of 1.2515. So, buy above the level of 1.2515 (this level represents resistance) with the first target of 1.2540, it might resume to 1.2576 in order to test the double top. However, the stop loss should be always be into account, therefore it will be very useful to set your stop below the price of 1.2415.


• On the other hand, if the trend cannot break resistance at the price of 1.2515, then the pair will probably start calling for the bearish market at this spot. Hence, the pair will be in a downside rather convincing momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2500, it will a good sign to sell below this area with the first target of 1.2460 and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue a bearish movement towards 1.2420.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 14/11/2014 10:10 CET

The corrective cycle in black wave ii has almost hit the least level of resistance and now it should turn down. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1400 will be considered as bullish but there must be a continuation move to the upside that breaks out above the recent swing high and makes new highs. Otherwise, the breakout above the level of 1.1400 might be considered as a false breakout and price will turn down.

Support/Resistance:

1.1465 - Swing High

1.1426 - WR1

1.1400 - Intraday Resistance

1.1357 - Intraday Support

1.1343 - Weekly Pivot

1.1279 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.1357 with SL above the level of 1.1401 and TP at the level of 1.1279.

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Technical Analysis on USD/CAD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair gave a stellar return in yesterday's session. Today, as well the pair opened on a bullish note lower at the 1.1368 level. In case if the pair closes above 1.1386 on a weekly basis, it can challenge 260 odd pips on the higher side. As we recommended earlier, the pair will challenge 1.1530 in the near term, 1.1644 and 1.1685 in the medium term and 1.1900, 1.2350 in the long-term perspective. The pair has resistance at 1.1425 on a daily closing basis. The pair took support from 20Dsma and started moving higher. The pair will regain real strength above 1.1402 levels. Fresh traders can buy above 1.1405 with the targets at 1.1449 and 1.1465 levels. We recommended buying at 1.1355 on Wednesday. The prices are trading and closed above 12ema and 35DEMA. The support levels exists at 1.1350 levels.

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Technical Analysis on Gold for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The yellow metal has been trading in a tight range. The prices break below the symmetric triangle, height is at $46. Ahead of US core retail, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data, the metal looks weak. We recommend fresh selling below $1,157.00 with the targets at $1,154.00, $1,150.00, and $1,145.80. As we recommended earlier, we are still looking at the lower level targets $1,024.00, $927.00, and $850.00-$800.00 in the longer-term view. In the h4 chart, the price is trading below the hourly key moving averages. The metal made a double top between $1,177.60 and $1,178.40 levels. This week the metal opened on a bearish note, which is still going on. In case if the metal closes above $1,178.50, then only bulls have an upper hand in the coming days. Until then, selling on every rise will mint the money.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. The US will release some key economic data such as Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Import Prices m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, and Natural Gas Inventories. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 116.49.

Resistance. 2: 116.26.

Resistance. 1: 116.04.

Support. 1: 115.75.

Support. 2: 115.53.

Support. 3: 115.30.

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Technical Analysis on EUR/USD for November 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair gained 40 pips in yesterday's session, after the soft US jobs data. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range between the 1.2509 and 1.2395 levels. The prices are well managed to trade above 1.2400 levels. The weekly resistance exists at 1.2510, above this at 1.2565 and 1.2577. A daily close below 1.2375 leads to another steep fall towards 1.2310, 1.2250, and 1.2226. As of now this week, the pair manages to offset most of its losses. For the longer-term picture, the pair still favours selling on a rise with the targets at the 1.2226 levels. In case if the pair falls below 1.2226, another steep fall will be triggered towards the 1.20 and 1.1800 levels. Today, traders turn full attention to construction output data, US core retail, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data. Ahead of the key economic data, the pair looks weak in early Asia's session. French, German, Italian GDP, French non-farm payroll, and inflation data will be released during today's session. A handful of events in today's session results in high volatility. For an intraday session, the pair has support at 1.2435, below this at 1.2420 and 1.2395. We recommend buying above 1.2510 with the targets at 1.2533, 1.2560, and 1.2575. Selling below 1.2450 with the targets at 1.2420, 1.2395, 1.2375, and 1.2350.

Selling is preferable to buying. Use every rise to sell.

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