Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. Overnight, the US stock indexes ended higher for the first time in four sessions due to rising health care and energy shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 17574, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 2052, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4% to 5045. Nymex crude oil lost 1.1% falling to $36.76 a barrel, gold edged down 0.2% to $1071 an ounce, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbed to 2.239% from 2.208% at the previous session.

Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded broadly against most other major currencies. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index gained 0.3% to 89.69 after losing 0.9% over the previous two sessions. EUR/USD declined 0.8% to 1.0940, USD/CHF rose 0.5% to 0.9874, and USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 121.58. The pair keeps rebounding and has breached the previous key resistance. Currently it is trading above the upper Bollinger Band with strong upward momentum. The 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average has crossed above the 50-period one, while the relative strength index is riding on a rising trend line pointing to the overbought level of 70. The intraday outlook has turned very bullish. The first downside target is seen at 120.50 (around the low of December 3) and the second one at 120.15 (around the low of December 4).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 120.15. The pivot point stands at 122. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 122.45 and the second target at 122.70.

Resistance levels: 122.45 122.70 123.10

Support levels: 120.50 120.15 119.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias as key resistance is seen at 0.9915. Trading at 0.9840, the pair is still moving in a downtrend on an intraday basis. As the process of lower highs and lows remains intact, and the intraday key moving averages are still on the downside. Besides, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9915 is resistance, a decline to 0.9795 (the previous swing low) and 0.9750 is possible.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9795. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9750. The pivot point stands at 0.9915. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9950 and the second target at 0.9985.

Resistance levels: 0.9950 0.9985 1.0035

Support levels: 0.9795 0.9750 0.97

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.67. The pair stands firmly above its nearest support at 0.6700, and is now consolidating before a further advance. Meanwhile, intraday technical indicators are still mixed to positive, with the 50-period moving average heading upwards. Hence, even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extension should be limited. As long as 0.67 is not broken, an advance to 0.6790 & 0.6835 can take place.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6790 and the second target at 0.6835. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.666 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6590. The pivot point is at 0.67.

Resistance levels: 0.6790 0.6835 0.6875

Support levels: 0.6660 0.6590 0.6565

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair has accelerated to the downside after breaking down its previous support at 133.55, which should now play a key resistance role. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap with 183.35. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 182.75.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182.75. The pivot point stands at 185.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 185.40 and the second target at 185.70.

Resistance levels: 185.40 185.70 186.35

Support levels: 183.35 182.75 182

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Global macro overview for 11/12/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 11/12/2015:

Libor rate was kept unchanged yesterday (-0.75%) and the Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment continued its pledge to intervene if needed to push back the strong franc. The central bank left its target range for three-month Libor at between -1.25% and -0.25% in line with expectations, but it said it would remain active in the currency market if necessary. Moreover, the SNB admitted again that it will defend the national currency against excessive appreciation, as it harms the Swiss economy.

The EUR/CHF pair is trading below the long-term golden trend line, but just right at the important daily support at the level of 1.0822. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0712 and next resistance is seen at the level of 1.1048.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart). The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270.

Significant bearish rejection has been observed around 1.3450. Since then, another consolidation range was established between 1.3400 and 1.2800.

Last week, a bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was needed to allow the further bearish decline towards 1.2900. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

A bullish breakout above 1.3400 was executed on Monday.

Daily fixation above 1.3400 enhances the bullish side of the market towards the next resistance level at 1.4100 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for valid buy entries if bullish pullback occurs soon.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the USD/CAD pair to retrace towards the zone of 1.3380-1.3400 to have a valid buy entry. S/L should be placed below 1.3300.

Initial T/P levels should be placed at 1.3500 and 1.3600. The long-term bullish target is projected towards 1.4100.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The daily chart shows a bullish Flag pattern that was initiated around the level of 0.6230 on September 23.

Two weeks ago, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around 0.6520.

Last week, a bullish breakout above 0.6600 (the upper limit of the flag pattern) took place.

Temporary bearish rejection should be expected around 0.6700-0.6750 (prominent resistance zone) on the daily chart. Actually, previous bearish rejection has been expressed earlier last week on Friday.

On the other hand, an estimated projection target for this flag pattern is located at 0.6950 only if the NZD/USD pair manages to keep trading above 0.6700-0.6750.

Last Tuesday, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6600 was executed via a full-body bullish H4 candlestick.

As anticipated, the NZD/CAD pair found resistance around 0.6690 and 0.6750 providing evident bearish rejection.

For conservative traders, a valid buy entry was suggested around 0.6600 (corresponds to the depicted uptrend and the upper limit of the broken consolidation range). S/L should be elevated to 0.6680 to secure some of the achieved profits.

The level of 0.6750 remains a significant resistance level to offer bearish rejection similar to what happened back on December 4.

On the other hand, bullish fixation above 0.6750 and 0.6780 (previous daily high) exposes the next resistance level that comes to meet the NZD/USD pair around 0.6850.

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Global macro overview for 11/12/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 11/12/2015:

Today, the US releases a host of key reports, including retail sales and CPI data. The market participants expect a small increase in retail sales up to the level of 0.2% from 0.1% a month before. The situation is the same with CPI, where market participants expect the numbers to slightly beat the previous month reading of 0.2% up to the level of 0.3%. If the numbers beat the forecast, it would mean the inflation in the US starts to slowly pick up and it would support the Fed's decision on the short-term interest rates next week.

The EUR/USD pair is still trading in the daily range ahead of the news release. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0923 and next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0980.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have previously pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (August, September, October and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection, which took the price to the area around the level of 1.1450.

Hence, the long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0555 occurs before the end of this month (December).

On August 24, the market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the pair further above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend has been executed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets projected at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

Three weeks ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0700 (key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly low) where a prominent bullish pullback was initiated as anticipated in previous articles.

A daily breakdown of the monthly demand level (1.0550) was needed to expose next bearish target levels at 1.0460 initially.

However, bullish fixation above 1.0550 and 1.0700 brought the EUR/USD pair back towards the level of 1.0990 (Sell Entry).

Today, the price level of 1.1000 remains a significant supply level to be watched for a valid sell entry. S/L should be placed above 1.1075. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.0900 and 1.0810.

On the other hand, an obvious daily fixation above 1.1000 opens the way initially towards 1.1150 where prominent daily bottoms were previously established.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

A few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with significant resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A long-term bearish target is projected towards the level of 1.4800 for this reversal pattern.

The previous demand level at 1.5200 (the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick) was broken down a month ago. This bearish tendency was confirmed by the Shooting Star and the bearish engulfing weekly candlesticks of the previous weeks.

Hence, a quick bearish decline towards the weekly demand level at 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Note that another weekly closure below 1.4950 is needed to clear the way towards 1.4800 (long-term bearish target). Otherwise, another bullish pullback towards 1.5350 should be expected.

Prominent demand levels at 1.5350 and 1.5200 were broken down a few weeks ago. These levels currently constitute prominent supply levels to be watched for new sell entries.

Recently, the key level of 1.5200 was temporarily breached to the upside before a daily bearish engulfing candlestick was expressed around 1.5330 on November 20.

Bearish persistence below 1.5200 and then 1.5050 (previous weekly bottom) enhanced a further bearish decline towards the weekly demand level of 1.4950 (corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted channel).

A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed around 1.4950 on the previous Thursday.

That is why a bullish pullback towards 1.5200-1.5230 and probably 1.5350 should be expected as long as GBP/USD bulls keep moving above 1.5000 and 1.5100.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid buy entry was suggested around the weekly demand zone of 1.4950-1.4930. S/L should be elevated to 1.5000. T/P levels should be located at 1.5000, 1.5170 and 1.5300.

On the other hand, a valid sell entry can be offered anywhere around the supply level of 1.5300. S/L should be placed above 1.5350.

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6315. In the background, the price went down in an ultra-high volume (selling climax) trading around the level of 1.6180 looks very risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6165. We may see potential retesting of 1.6730 in the next period. Selling looks very risky.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6340

R2: 1.6400

R3: 1.6500

Support levels:

S1: 1.6150

S2: 1.6085

S3: 1.5990

Trading recommendations : Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky since the price is testing the major support cluster. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The wave structure for GBP/CHF still remains intact and poised to unfold into higher highs and higher lows in coming weeks. The pair still holds its Fibonacci 0.618 support around the level of 1.4930 looking for an opportunity to begin its 5-wave rally towards 1.6000 soon. Hence it is still recommended to hold the long positions taken earlier with risk at 1.4800. Immediate support is seen around 1.4800 followed by 1.4700 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5150 followed by 1.5320 and higher. Bulls should remain poised to take control from current levels.

Trading recommendations:

Now remain long with stop at 1.4800, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has dropped lower today as expected. Now it is trading around the level of 133.19. Please note that the pair is still reacting/testing its line of resistance, and there is a possibility that it will move lower until the level of 134.50 holds. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk around $134.80. A push above 134.50 could prove the above count to be invalid. Even a 62% retracement of the rally between 129.00 and 134.50 could see EUR/JPY dropping to 131.00. Immediate resistance is seen at 134.50, while support is seen at 131.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 134.80, a target is at 131.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped to the level of $1,062.00 as expected and bounced back. The metal is trading at $1,066.00 at the moment, we expect to see bullish recovery from here. Please note that the rally from $1,045.00 to $1,090.00 has been retraced to Fibonacci 0.618 support level and bulls should now be poised to take control back until prices stay above $1,045.00. Hence it is recommended to initiate fresh long positions with risk at the level of $1,042.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,045.00, while resistance is seen at $1,100.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at $1,042.00, a target is at $1,115.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver dropped lower as we had expected, and is trading around the level of $13.95 now. Also please note that the metal is testing the back side of the resistance trend line, which is support now. Furthermore, the Fibonacci 0.786 support of a rally between $13.80 and $14.60 is also converging at the same levels. A bullish reversal could be expected from here and bulls should regain control providing support for holding the level of $13.80. Hence, it is still recommended to hold long positions taken earlier with risk around $13.55. Immediate support is seen at $13.80, while resistance is seen at $14.60 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now with stop at $13.55, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview

A break of the 183.96 temporary low indicates resumption of a fall from 188.79 and intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Overall, we are still favoring the scenario that the consolidation pattern from 180.36 has been completed at 188.79. A deeper decline to the 180.36/64 support zone would be seen. Nevertheless, a break of the 186.33 minor resistance would now dampen our bearish view and turn the focus back to 188.79 instead. A break of 174.86 will confirm a trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious about the strong resistance at 199.80/200.00 to bring the reversal finally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.34; (P) 185.84; (R1) 186.21

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Gold analysis for December 11 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,062.32. In the daily time frame, I found an inside-bar formation with support at the level of $1,058.15 and resistance at the level of $1,088.50. Our daily SMA10 is flat. According to the H1 time frame, I placed Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci expansion to find potential strong support and found strong support level at the price of $1,062.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8% and Fibonacci expansion 100%). If the price breaks the level of $1,062.00 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of the level of $1,050.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,074.95

R2: 1,076.20

R3: 1,078.25

Support levels:

S1: 1,070.80

S2: 1,069.60

S3: 1,067.50

Trading recommendations: Watch for a potential breakout of our inside-bar formation to confirm further direction.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The silver price crawls downwards gradually to test the key support at 13.96, as the EMA50 places the price under negative pressure. Stochastic shows positive signals now that might help to protect the mentioned support. Therefore, this contradiction of the technical factors makes us stay aside temporarily in order to monitor the price behavior according to the key levels represented by the 13.96 support and 14.20 resistance, as breaking the mentioned support represents the key of resuming the main bearish trend. Its next targets located at 13.50 and followed by 13.00, while breaching 14.20 will push the price to test 14.85. The silver price trades with clear negativity to attack the 13.96 level, and we need to get a daily close below this level to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend in the upcoming period, which makes us continue with our neutrality until the price confirms breaking of the mentioned level or breaching the 14.20 resistance. To find out more about the expected targets after the breach, please look my morning report.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The price of USD/CAD pair is still showing signs of strength following the break of 1.3528. The level of 1.3528 is representing a strong support this month. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair's resistance has been broken and it was turned into support for a while. Moreover, the pair has already formed the strong support at the level of 1.3528. The ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the price of 1.3528. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3528 with the target of 1.3721 and 1.3790. If the trend breaks this level and closes below the key level of 1.3528, then it will be rather convincing downside momentum. The structure of the fall does not look corrective for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the price of 1.3528. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell at this level and the support has already been placed at the 1.3450 level.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The pAUD/USD pair has still trapped between 0.7276 and 0.7169. Therefore, the first step is to wait for a period of the tight sideways market before breakouts due to resistance seen at the level of 0.7276 and support found at 0.7169. Then, probably, the market is going to start showing bearish signs. In other words, it is good to sell below 0.7276 (the level of 0.7276 has formed a double top since yesterday) with the first target at 0.7203. The price will drop towards 0.93 in order to to test the lowest level. Also, the level of 0.7203 represents minor support. Moreover, the major support was already found at 0.7169 in the H1 chart. On the other hand, if the pair fails to break 0.9385, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.7169, then the level will act as strong support. Hence, buy above 0.7169 with the first target at 0.7233. It will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards 0.7309 in coming days.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 11/12/2015 10:15 CET:

The current wave progression has been updated, and a new count suggests an ending diagonal pattern to be completed at the top of the wave 5 purple. There are still two missing sub-waves inside of the pattern to terminate it, but the multiple bearish divergence suggests rather fast completion and downside breakout.

Support/Resistance:

1.3621 - Intraday Support

1.3555 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should consider closing long-term buy orders as the cycles on the higher time frames suggests possible completion of the five wave impulsive development and an imminent corrective cycle ahead.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 11/12/2015 09:40 CET

The wave c green bottom occurred at the projected level and a strong rebound made the price to break above the intraday resistance line. Nevertheless, the black short-term trend line has not been violated yet and it is still possible that the corrective structure will evolve more complex and time-consuming pattern ahead of the next week's very important Fed's meeting.

Support/Resistance:

134.16 - Intraday Resistance

133.06 - Weekly Pivot

132.75 - Intraday Support

131.56 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur, because current risks to reward ratio are too big for any trade.

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USDX technical analysis for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index bounced as we expected, but failed to breakout above short-term resistance. There is still a danger of seeing a new lower low in the US dollar index before a resumption of an uptrend. The longer-term chart continues to favor bulls.

The US dollar index is below the Ichimoku cloud. This is a bearish indicator. The price reached the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and got rejected. This resistance at 98.10 must be broken otherwise we should expect new lows towards 96.70.

The weekly chart remains above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and has bounced off the 50% retracement., Short-term trend is bearish but if we look at the weekly chart we still consider this as a corrective pullback, but not a change in the trend of a bigger degree.

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Gold technical analysis for December 11, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price pulled back towards $1,066 yesterday as we expected in order to test the short-term Ichimoku cloud support. Only a breakout above $1,084 can give a bullish signal with $1,120 acting as a target.

Blue line -support

Black line - resistance

Green line - projection

Gold price is still above the short-term Ichimoku cloud that is now support at $1,060-66. Stochastic is oversold in the short-term. Resistance is seen at $1,083-84. Breaking above it will open the way for the next leg up towards $1,120.

The weekly chart shows us that the price is testing the resistance of $1,075-80. This resistance is the previously broken support. Breaking above this resistance will open the way to $1,120, which is highly probable in my opinion. We could clearly see a new lower low first, but the downtrend will be short-lived. A bounce will come for sure, we are currently in a bottoming process.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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