Tuesday 28 July 2015

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, USD is under pressure. Investors took profits on its recent gains. The euro utilized this window edging higher to a two-week high at 1.1129. At yesterday's session, the pair rejected at 50Dsma and managed to close above 20Dsma.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, declined in July. The Index stands at 90.9 now, down from 99.8 in June. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, US economy delivered negative readings.

Technical view: The pair rejected twice at 50Dsma, but managed to close above 20Dsma. In the H1 chart, the pair has been reaching higher highs and higher lows.

But, the pair has been making lower lows and lower tops, fell below the lower end of the ascending trendline in the four-hour chart.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1100, 1.1130, and 1.1170. Support is found at 1.1050 and 1.1020. We advised buying with sl at 1.0850, moving to 1.0925 now. Monthly support is found at 1.0730. In case the pair lost the 1.0850 again. Selling accelerates. The Federal Reserve and the ECB's monetary policies differ, favoring the longer-term bearish outlook.

The pair faced resistance at the descending upper trendline in the four-hour chart. In case bulls take out 1.1225, they are likely to reach 1.1300 in the near term. Traders can use a dip to buy at sl 1.0920.

We recommend intraday selling only below 1.0920 with targets at 1.0870 and 1.0850. Selling accelerates only below 1.0850.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of Gold for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Traders eye the FOMC meeting, which is due today. The metal has been consolidating in a tight range between $1,085.00 and $1,110.00.

HSBC: Federal Reserve coming closer to the interest rate hike, a stronger dollar, low inflation, China's and India's weak demand for physical gold and other factors weigh on gold prices.

Technical view: The yellow metal was trading at $1,095.00 during today's Asian session compared to Tuesday's closing price of $1,094.80. A weekly trading pattern is framed between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00 on a closing basis. A close on either side will result in more room to trade. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trendline at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00, $1,045.00, and $1,005.00. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It has been managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for six consecutive days.

Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,093.00, $1091.00 and $1,087.00. Resistance is seen at $1,098.50, $1,105.00, and $1,107.00. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, we expect impulsive moves. A daily close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,077.00 initially, later it is likely to extend towards $1,055.00.

Earlier, in the H1 chart, the metal made a double top at $1,105.00 during yesterday's session another top at $1,098.60. The metal has been testing its fate at the level of $1,085.00.

Intraday selling is available below $1,091.00 with an initial target at $1,088.00. Selling will accelerate below $1,085.00 towards $1,082.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Panic is likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell during the week. Buying is available above $1,098.00 with target at $1,100.00, $1,102.00, and $1,104.00. A strong pullback is likely above $1,106.00 towards $1,109.00 during a day.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of Gold for July 29, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 29 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Technical summary:

The flat correction in wave 2 continues to unfold just as expected. We are currently looking for one final decline to just below 1.6325 to terminate wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher. A break above minor resistance at 1.6602 will be the first indication that wave 2 is over and wave higher is developing.

Even if support at 1.6325 gets substantially broken, the downside potential should be limited to 1.6115.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6335 or upon a break above 1.6602 with our stop placed at 1.6300.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 29 - 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Technical summary

We are still looking for a break above resistance at 137.80 that will confirm continuation higher to 141.06 and 144.03 as the next upside targets. There is still risk of a break below minor support at 135.49 and more importantly a break below the support-line at 134.83. That will question the bullish outlook, but only a break below support at 134.28 will invalidate the bullish outlook all together and call for a new decline to 126.05 and below.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 135.40. If you are not long EUR yet, the buy a break above 137.80 and use the same stop at 135.40.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29 - 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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When the European market opens, economic news on the GfK German Consumer Climate is due. The US will publish data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1117.

Strong Resistance:1.1111.

Original Resistance: 1.1100.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1089.

Target Inner Area: 1.1063.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1037.

Original Support: 1.1026.

Strong Support: 1.1015.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1009.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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In Asia, Japan will release Retail Sales y/y, and the US will publish economic data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low tomedium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.10.

Resistance. 2: 123.86.

Resistance. 1: 123.62.

Support. 1: 123.31.

Support. 2: 123.07.

Support. 3: 122.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 29, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Daily analysis of USDX for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart, the support level of 96.57 remains untouched, as the Index is still trading above that important zone, but be cautious with the current downside corrective moves held in this time frame. That is why we should be aware of a possible breakout around that support level, in order to reach a new low towards the level of 95.63.

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The USDX did some bullish corrective moves during Tuesday's session and it's currently being rejected by the resistance zone of 96.73. A fall towards support level of 96.33 will put to the USDX in the bear's focus, because a breakout could happen there in order to reach new lows (the level of 95.67). The MACD indicator is still in the negative territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.63

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.73 / 97.12

H1 chart's support levels: 96.33 / 95.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.33, take profit is at 95.67, and stop loss is at 97.00.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/USD is still riding the current bullish momentum held above the 200 SMA on the daily chart. , it is possible that the resistance zone of 1.5640 could be broken in coming days. If that happens, GBP/USD will test a high around the level of 1.5777 again. Very strong resistance is located in this time frame.

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The short-term picture is still calling for more upside moves, as the pair is approaching to the resistance zone of 1.5633. We should expect a breakout over there in order to extend the rally towards the resistance level of 1.5664. Anyway, if a pullback happens at this stage, GBP/USD could correct the currrent upside move until the 200 SMA on the H1 chart.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5777

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5633 / 1.5664

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5594 / 1.5568

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5633, take profit is at 1.5664, and stop loss is at 1.5602.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were established. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came FRANK bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3080 if enough bullish support is maintained.

Today, the signs of lack of bullish momentum are manifested on the chart. A bearish corrective movement is likely to be executed towards the price levels of 1.2900 and 1.2850.

Trade Recommendations:

Traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid BUY entry (Breakout level = Recent Support).

Stop Loss should be located below the price level of 1.2700.

T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflected recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 could be possible only if May's monthly high at 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the levels of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair to 1.1000 again where the uptrend met the EUR/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000.

Yesterday, the level of 1.1100, where the backside of the broken uptrend is located, was being approached. The price level of 1.1000 has already been breached earlier this week.

Trader Recommendations :

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards the recently established supply zone of 1.1100-1.1150. it can offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 1.1200.

T/P levels should be located at 1.0850 and 1.0700.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key-zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. It indicates a lack of bearish momentum below 1.5500.

The current weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market at least towards 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

Last week, strong bearish pressure has been applied against the price level of 1.5550. It was breached temporarily until bullish recovery emerged this week.

On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to keep their WEEKLY closure below the level of 1.5500.

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Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top) was broken temporarily allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom had been recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions have been expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 has been taking place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one which still enhances the bearish side of the market.

That is why, the price level of 1.5550 now constitutes a significant key level to be watched for significant bearish price action.

A quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be expected if 1.5550 gets broken again.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the next supply level to be watched if bullish fixation above 1.5550 persists on a daily basis.

If so, a counter-trend Intraday SELL entry can be offered at retesting of the price level of 1.5770.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of Silver for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around the $14.70 levels at the moment looking to push higher towards at least the $15.30/40 levels in the coming trading sessions. Please note that a Fibonacci convergence (resistance) is also seen around the $15.30 levels, as depicted here. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions with risk at the $14.25 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at the $14.40/50 levels (interim) followed by $14.25, $13.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $15.50 levels followed by $15.80/16.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions. Stop is at $14.25, target is open.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of Silver for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of Gold for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading around the $1,095.00 levels at the moment looking to push through the $1,130.00/32.00 levels in the coming sessions. The yellow metal has been showing quite resilience around the $1,080.00 levels and note giving in to bearish setups for now, though it still remains a candidate to be sold on rallies. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to short around the $1,130.00/32.00 levels which is also Fibonacci resistance as depicted here. Immediate support is seen around the $1,075.00 levels followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,130.00 (interim) followed by $1,175.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look to sell higher.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of Gold for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is inching higher towards 137.00. The intraday dips are very shallow and immediate support is seen at the level of 135.50. Please note that upside potential remains up to the levels of 139.50 and 140.60. A push above 138.00 would confirm the further bullish setups. It is therefore recommended to buy on dips from here on, with risk at 135.00. Immediate support is seen at 1325.50 followed by 134.30, 133.00,and lower while resistance is seen at 138.00 followed by 139.00, 140.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Look to buy on dips.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair inched higher towards 1.5075 today before pulling back. Please note that the pair could find resistance around 1.5100 that could trigger a wave 3 pullback before resuming an uptrend. It is hence recommended to stay flat for now and look for dips to enter buying again. Immediate support on the H4 chart is seen around 1.4800 followed by 1.4550/75, 1.4450, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5100 and higher. Bulls are likely to remain in control untill prices stay broadly above the level of 1,4800.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 28, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair opened below the monthly pivot point at the level of 0.6660. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.6660 and the monthly pivot point will act as strong resistance on July 18, 2015. So, according to the previous events, the price is still trading between the levels of 0.6700 and 0.6521. The area below 0.6700 (below the monthly pivot point) calls for further move downside with the first target at 0.6575 in order to test the weekly support 1 and continue towards 0.6490 (the double bottom). However, stop loss should be placed above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.6772.

Trading recommendations:

  • The NZD/USD pair will probably go down because the downward trend is still strong. Then, it is recommended to sell during the correction and open short positions below 0.6700 with targets at 0.6575 and 0.6490.
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Gold analysis for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,092.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a bearish bar in a volume above the average. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe a fake breakout of our support level at the price of $1,086.00. The price got back to our trading range between the prices of $1,086.00 and $1,118.00. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of $1,127.00, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of $1,141.00 and Fibonacc retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,157.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,103.00

R2: 1,107.00

R3: 1,113.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,090.50

S2: 1,086.70

S3: 1,079.45

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage since we have a fake breakout in the background.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair probably will form a strong support at the level of 0.9588 above 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Moreover, it will also form a powerful resistance at the 0.9700 level on the H1 chart. Equally important, the price is going to form a double bottom at 0.9616 (the first bearish wave since yesterday). Furthermore, the saturation is likely to take place around 0.9616/0.9588 because this level also formed the first strong support on July 28, 2015. Consequently, it is possible that the market will start showing bullish signs. So buy deals are recommended above 0.9616/0.9588 with the first target seen at the 0.9666 level and further at the 0.9700 price. It also should be noted that the level of 0.9700 will represent a new double top in the same time frame.

Observations:

  • The resistance will set at the level of 0.9700 for today.
  • We expect a range of 68 pips today.
  • Volatility: 172.85.
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EUR/NZD analysis for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downward. The price tested the level of 1.6540 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar. Our upward trendline got broken, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky and that we may see a bearish phase. Resistance level at the price of 1.6805 is held successfully. Support level is at the price of 1.6340.The short-term trend is bearish, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6805

R2: 1.6845

R3: 1.6900

Support levels:

S1: 1.6690

S2: 1.6650

S3: 1.6595

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities. Strong support is around the price of 1.6340.

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Global macro overview for 28/07/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 28/08/2015:

Yesterday's strong data from the US surprised the market: durable goods orders rose 3.4% (-2.1% a month before) and core durable orders rose 0.8% (-0.1% a month before). The next portion of singnificant data is due today. The CB consumer confidence is also scheduled for today. The market expects the indicator to come out at 100.1 points compared to 101.4 a month ago. Nevertheless, any better-than-expected readings might add fuel to the fire and help the dollar rise ahead of the Fed's meeting.

The USD/JPY pair is slowly building a bullish engulfing pattern in the daily time frame and might be getting ready to challenge the resistance of 124.50 if US data turns out to be good enough.

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Global macro overview for 28/07/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 28/07/2015:

According to recent events, the UK GDP is expected to accelerate by 0.7% q/q (2.6% y/y), just in line with economists' expectations, but better than the previous reading of 0.4% q/q (2.9% y/y). Moreover, the GDP is projected to increase even more: 2.5% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. The main leaders are services, finances, and North Sea oil output. A pickup in wage growth (mainly in construction) is adding to the total GDP as well. That is why the UK economy might not necessary need an extra help from such a low rates at this point of economic cycle. This is why the next most important things to watch are comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney about low interest rates, as the UK economy might be ready for one or two rate hikes this year.

The GBP/USD pair rose on the back of the latest data. Currently, it is trying to challenge the golden trendline. Any breakout above the level of 1.5669 is bullish in the short-term and recent highs might be tested again.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 28/07/2015 10:40 CET

The market has broken through yesterday's resistance at the level of 136.41. This level will act as a support. The upward wave progression has not been completed yet and more gains at the market are expected. Please keep an eye on the intraday support at the level of 136.41 as any breakout lower would invalidate the impulsive wave development and weekly pivot at the level of 135.60 might be tested again.

Support/Resistance:

137.67 - WR2

137.10 - Intraday Resistance

136.86 - WR1

136.43 - Intraday Support

135.60 - Weekly Pivot

134.77 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should close the buy orders from yesterday and wait for another upside breakout to produce another chance to enter the market. The best level to place the buy stop order is at the level of 137.10 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 137.63.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 28/07/2015 10:30 CET

The corrective cycle is still developing as the b green and c green waves are needed to complete the correction. The market is very range-bounded, but is trading above the weekly pivot and inside the bullish zone. Nevertheless, the downside breakout is expected in order to complete the c green wave. The first support comes at the level of 1.2947, but it might get easy violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.3100 - Intraday Resistance | Swing High|

1.3026 - Weekly Pivot

1.2952 - WS1

1.2947 - Intraday Support

1.2839 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Currently, the market is consolidating the gains inside the bullish zone and daytraders should wait for a clearer pattern to appear or for the corrective cycle to get complete.

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USDX technical analysis for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index is inside the upward sloping channel and is testing the lower channel boundaries. In the Ichimoku cloud terms, the price is in a bearish trend and has given a new short-term sell signal by breaking below the cloud. The US dollar is showing some signs of strength and is trying to bounce from the lower boundaries of the channel.

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Black lines - bullish channel

The US dollar index is in a short-term bearish trend as it makes lower lows and lower highs since July 21. The price has broken below the kijun-sen and tenkan-sen support indicators and now is trading below the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls are trying to push the price back inside the cloud. The bullish channel is intact for now; and as long as the price remains inside this channel, bulls will be in control. Critical support is at 96.30. This recent low is also the 38% retracement of the rise from 93.60.

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Blue line - horizontal resistance

The US dollar index got rejected at the horizontal resistance at 97.80 and pulled back towards the kijun-sen and tenkan-sen. Support is crucial in this area and a bounce will increase the chances of a real breakout above 98. A weekly close below 95.80 could be a sign of more selling to come towards even the weekly cloud support at the 91-90 level. Important day for the US dollar is tomorrow as the FOMC meeting will be held.

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Gold technical analysis for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price tried to break above $1,100 yesterday, but sellers did not let it break above the short-term resistnace at $1,103. The price pulled back towards support of $1,090, and we saw some signs that a bigger bounce could unfold today or tomorrow towards $1,115-20.

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Blue line - trend line resistance

Green lines - equal size rise projection

Gold price continues to trade below the blue trendline resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud. The price is making a small reversal pattern at $1,080. I believe that if we break above $1,103, we could see a bigger bounce towards $1,120.

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Blue line - long-term support trend line

The weekly chart remains bearish. The price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators and below the Ichimoku cloud.There are some signs of bulls' attampts to push the price higher, but I believe that $1,120 will be a very strong resistance and the price will not be able to break above it. An overall trend remains bearish as long as the price is below $1,150 and the target remains near $1,040-$980.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Core durable orders rose for the second time this year.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting regarding the interest rate hike, views widely spread.

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO): expect the Fed to raise its interest rates gradually in late 2015.

Deutsche Bank strategist Dominic Konstam said that the market showed "concerns over the Fed's policy failures," yield curve flattening, and decline in the stock markets and commodities is evidence, based on the dollar the Fed's rate hike, "is to bring down inflation effect" ; the Fed's first rate hike will be postponed until 2016 because of "the risk of a premature rate hike far outweigh the risk of waiting."

HSBC: Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates, a stronger dollar, low inflation, China and India weak demand for physical gold and other factors bear drag gold.

Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, investors took profits on recent dollar gains. Though the US Dollar Index managed to breach the previous swing high, it was unable to sustain at higher levels. The index closed below the 20Dsma at yesterday's session.

Technical view: The 50Dsma is found at 96.00 and 100Dema is seen at 95.60. Intraday support is found at 96.10 and 96.00. The weekly support is found at 96.30 (yesterday's low).On an intraday basis, if bulls lose the level of 96.00, the index is likely to drag towards 95.70 and 95.20. It is likely to close above 95.60 by the end of the day. Until the Index closes above 95.60, buyers will have the upper hand.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: Since last week, the EUR/USD pair has moved upward by at least 300 pips. This resulted in a vivid Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. It is possible that the price would keep on going northwards. The next targets to be reached are the resistance lines at 1.1150 and 1.1200.

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USD/CHF: Surprisingly, the bias on the USD/CHF pair is also bullish - just like the bias on EUR/USD. These pairs are supposed to go in opposite ways, but there are rare occasions like this one, in which both lines would be going in the same direction (like the current price action on both pairs). But things would go off balance soon and, the EUR/USD pair will go further upwards as the USD/CHF pair will plummet. The only thing that can end the current bullish outlook on USD/CHF is an event in which the CHF itself becomes very strong. This is expected before the end of this week.

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GBP/USD: The cable is also making some bullish effort, though things look dicey in the market. It would be OK to stay away from this market right now until there would be a confirmed directional bias in the market.

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USD/JPY: The price broke downwards from the consolidation phase it had recently experienced. It tested the demand level at 123.00. This esulted in a 'sell' signal for the price could go further south. In addition, the price is expected to go further downwards because the yen might be strengthening this week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair traded further upwards on Monday; thereby adding to the bullish outlook that was started last week. The supply zone at 137.00 has been tested, and in case it is broken to the upside, bulls would target another supply zone at 138.00.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Technical summary:

A flat correction is nicely unfolding. We saw the top of wave b at 1.6808. Now we are looking look for wave c moving lower to 1.6325 or just below to end wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher.

In the longer term, we continue to look for much higher levels with 1.7277 being the next major upside target.

Trading recommendation:

We will look for a buying opportunity as wave c of 2 progresses.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

A fall in commodity prices has badly hurt the Australian economy in recent years. Australia is known as a lucky country with natural resources such as coal, iron ore, and Gold. After the commodities super cycle, iron ore and coal prices have been falling very badly. Recently, gold prices added some more pressure to AUD.

Goldman Sachs expects iron ore prices to continue to fall until the second quarter of 2016.

The nuclear deal wheighs on oil prices. Lower oil prices directly affects the Canadian economy.

Ahead of the RBA governor Stevens' speech and Wednesday's building approvals, the cross is trading below all the moving averages.

Technical view: The cross has been trading on a bearish texture. The cross re-tested 0.9400 for three times in 15 months, but managed to close above that. The 20Dsma is found at 0.9520, 50Dsma is found at 0.9540, and 20Wsma is seen at 0.9550. Traders can keep an eye on this cross, big moves expected in coming days. A weekly close below 0.9400 opens gates for another dramatic fall. In the weekly charts, we can observe a large head and shoulder pattern. The cross has been testing the neck line for three times.

In the daily chart, the cross made a multiple top at 0.9633. For an intraday session, the cross is facing strong resistance seen at 0.9522, 0.9540, and 0.9560. Intraday support is found at 0.9449. We recommend safe selling below 0.9440 with tarhets at 0.9420 and 0.9400. Safe buying is available above 0.9570 towards 0.9600 and 0.9630.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

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Technical summary:

We have seen minor resistance at 136.44 broken and now we only need to break resistance at 137.80 too. It will confirm continuation higher to 141.06 and 144.03 as the next upside targets. Short-term support is found in the area of 135.93 - 136.12 now, which will ideally protect the downside for a break above 137.80.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 and will move our stop higher to 135.45. If you are not long EUR yet, buy on a break above 137.80 and use the same stop at 135.45.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

It is a quite week in terms of UK economic data. UK GDP data is due today. Besides, the US FOMC statement is due on Wednesday. This week, traders remain focused on US data. The bunch of US important data is due this week.

At today's session, traders eye the report on US core durable goods orders.

Technical overview:

The cable managde to bounce from the swing support at 1.5450 following buying encouraged bulls to close above the 20&50Dsma at yesterday's session.

Earlier, the cable made a strong ceiling at 1.5700. The cable broke a 3-month ascending trendline, still trading below it. In the four-hour chart, the cable fell below the bearish h&s pattern.

The 20Wsma is found at 1.5340, 100Dema is found at 1.5450, 200Dsma is seen at 1.5410, and 100Dsma is found at 1.5300. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5440 and 1.5700.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5580, 1.5600 ,and 1.5620. Support is found at 1.5530, 1.5490, and 1.5440. Selling is available below 1.5530 and buying is available only above 1.5600. Panic is likely to be triggered below 1.5440.

InIn case bulls manage to hold the level of 1.5440, they will aim to reach 1.5600 and 1.5700. Bulls will get back on track only if they manage to close above 1.5700, until that selling on rises is in favor.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the USD is under pressure. Investors took profits on recent dollar's gains.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for the German trade and industry rose to 108.0 points in July from 107.5 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation improved significantly after last month's setback. Business expectations were also somewhat more optimistic after declining for three consecutive months.

Technical view: At yesterday's session, the pair managed to close above the 20Dsma, but rejected at 50Dsma.

The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. Twice, we recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with a yarget at 1.0720 and later at 1.0630, but not yet.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1100, 1.1130, and 1.1170. Support is found at 1.1080, 1.1050, and 1.1000. We have been advising buying with sl at 1.0850 now moving to 1.0925. Monthly support is found at 1.0730. In case the pair lost 1.0850 again, selling will get activated. The Federal Reserve and the ECB monetary policy differentiation favors long-term bearish scenario.

At yesterday's session, we advised buying above 1.0980 with targets at 1.1020, 1.1035, 1.1050, 1.1080, and 1.1100. The pair reached a high at 1.1129. Exactly, the pair faced resistance at the descending upper trendline. In case bulls take out 1.1225, they will reache 1.1300 in the near term.

oday, the pair is likely to skyrocket to the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1170. Traders can use a dip to buy this week.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold missed buying momentum at yesterday's session and closed with losses. The metal erased most of its Friday's gains yesterday.

The output of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust holdings, stays flat at the level of 680.15 tons compared to the day before.

HSBC: Federal Reserve coming closer to the interest rate hike, a stronger dollar, low inflation, China's and India's weak demand for physical gold and other factors weigh on gold prices.

CFTC data shows that speculators net short positions in gold futures and options for the first time during the week ended July 21.

Ahead of tomorrow's FOMC event the metal strikes in a tight range between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00.

Technical view: The yellow metal was trading at $1,093.00 during today's Asian session compared to Thursday's closing price of $1,093.60. The weekly trading pattern is framed between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00 on a closing basis. A close on either side will lead to more room to trade. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trend line at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00, $1,045.00, and $1,005.00. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for five days.

Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,091.00 and $1,087.00. Resistance is seen at $1,095.00, $1,098.00, and $1,105.00. A daily close below $1,077.00 opens gates to $1,055.00 during this week.

At yesterday's session, we advised intraday buying above $1,102.00 with a target at $1,105.00 and in the extreme case at $1,109.00; the metal reached a high at $1,104.70.

In the H1 chart, the metal made a double top at $1,105.00. Mild-buying looms above $1,105.00. The metal has been testing its fate at $1,185.00.

Intraday selling is available below $1,086.00 with targets at $1,084.00, $1,082.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Panic is likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell this week. Buying is available above 1098.00 with targets at $1,100.00, $1,102.00, and $1,104.00. A strong pullback is expected above $1,105.00 towards $1,109.00 during a day.

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