Overview
According to our previous expectations, the price's close below the кesistance level of 19.00 will give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Resistance level to trade below and open the way towards 18.75 as first target, then the metal must test the Support level of 18.50 to get more bearish move till reaching the level of 18.00 as second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level 18.50 cancels bearish scenario.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (19.20), R2 (19.00), R1 (18.75), S1 (18.50), S2 (18.00)
General overview for 11/09/2014 :15:30 CET
Let's take a look on the big picture view for this pair as the recent impulsive bearish count has been invalidated due to wave 1 and wave 2 overlaps. The next best labeling that doesn't break any rules is a little more expanded in price and time corrective cycle in black wave X, that possibly had been completed at the level of 135.76. Now, another upside cycle has started. The target for this upward leg would be at the level of 139.26 where a long-term descending trend line is. Any breakout higher would be the first confirmation that the corrective cycle is completed and the price is going higher to complete purple wave 5 .
Support/Resistance:
139.06 - WR2
138.25 - Intraday Support
137.42 - WR1 Trading recommendations:
Impulsive wave progression to the upside has not been finished yet and buying the dips is advised as the target for this bullish cycle is at the level of 139.26.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comGeneral overview for 11/09/2014 :15:15 CET
The current Elliott wave count has been little modified as the top for wave -iii- blue has been moved higher to emphasis the corrective cycle in wave 0iv-, which is more complex than wave -ii- blue. Currently, the upward wave progression is not completed and one more wave to the upside is needed to finish red wave 3. After that completion, the corrective cycle in red wave 4 red will begin.
Support/Resistance:
1.1064 - WR3
1.1052 - Technical Resistance
1.1003 - Intraday Resistance
1.1002 - WR2
1.0971 - Intraday Support
Trading recommendations:
Buying the dips in this pair is the way to trade the whole week and today is no different. TP is at the level of 1.1060.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) managed to pause the previous bullish momentum, thus initiating the current downtrend within the depicted bearish channel.
Several congestion zones were established around the price levels of 1.3515 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline could take place.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair showed bullish recovery around price level of 1.2860. Successive bullish hammer daily candlesticks are being expressed around these price levels.
The pair is currently testing the lower limit of the depicted channel. High incidence of bullish reversal is present
Recent bullish recovery is witnessed on the chart. A possible bullish Head and Shoulders pattern is being established with projection target located at 1.3075.
Four-Hour fixation above 1.2985-1.3000 ( neckline of the reversal pattern ) is essential to acquire enough momentum to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3100 and 1.3150.
The nearest bullish destination is located at 1.3180 where the upper limit of the ongoing bearish channel and 38.2% Fibonacci Level are located. A good SELL entry can be taken there.
The current medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3170-1.3270 (the price zone between 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels ).
On the other hand, bearish slide below 1.2855 invalidates the mentioned bullish reversal pattern. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2745 would be expected then.
Overview:
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,238.23 in an average volume. The price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1,272.00, and that is the reason why we saw further bearish bias. Our major Fibonacci expansion 61.8%% is broken, so we may see potential testing the level of 1,218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak supply in a volume just above the average.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,254.78
R2: 1,258.08
R3: 1,263.43
Support levels:
S1: 1,244.08
S2: 1,240.78
S3: 1,235.43
Trading recommendations: Buying looks risky since the price has broke our Fibonacci expansion 61.8%.
Overview :
Intraday technical levels :
Date and Time:11/09/2014 12:07
Pair:USD/CHF
Overview :
Notes :
The Dollar index is making a short-term sideways consolidation. The trend remains fully bullish with 85 as a target. However, bulls should be very cautious as we are getting close to very important resistance levels. The risk reward does not favor bulls now. This does not mean that traders should go against the up trend.
Short-term support is found at 84.05. Resistance at 84.50. A break above resistance is most probable as this looks like a bullish flag. Ichimoku cloud indicators remain fully bullish. A move to new highs is more probable. Long trades should be preferred with a stop placed close by at support.
The daily chart remains fully bullish. There is no sign of a trend reversal. Price has been consolidating for the last couple of days. More upside is more probable than a reversal towards the 23% retracement. However bulls should keep their stops tight as we are getting very close to huge long-term resistance. I avoid going short this index as the up trend is very strong and there is no sign of reversal.
Gold price has made new lower lows yesterday at $1,243, just $3 away from our short-term target of $1,240 that I've been calling since we broke below the $1,270 support. The trend remains bearish. The Ichimoku cloud indicators remain bearish. The bigger outlook is still bearish.
The 4-hour chart remains bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud and above the Chikou span. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Short-term resistance is found at $1,257. If broken, we could see a bounce towards $1,270. Support is set at $1,240 where the previous important low is from early June.
Gold price is now testing the previous June low at $1,240. The trend is bearish and the triangle consolidation has broken to the downside. The bigger picture remains clearly bearish with targets below $1,180. A back test of the broken trend line in the weekly chart cannot be ruled out at the moment. This means a back test towards $1,300 is still possible. However, this scenario is not our favorite.
The pair has been facing strong resistance at 1.0986 on a closing basis. Even though the pair breached this level, it is unable to close above that level which produces selling pressure whenever it touches that 1.0986 on a daily closing basis. In yesterday's session, the pair drifted towards 23.6 fib level. Today, it opened with support at that level and is looking for an opportunity to move up. The pair is trading at the 1.0945 level, support existed at the 1.0934 level. Below 1.0934, it can extend its fall down to 1.0921 (20Dsma). For an intraday session, the prices are holding above 34hrsma. We recommend buying the cmp 1.0934 with an hourly target at 1.0965. In a move above 1.0965, it can climb up to 1.0983, 0986, and 1.1. Today, the key support exists at 1.0928 while resistance is at 1.0965.
Buy at cmp, strong up move above 1.0965.
The pair took the 50Wsma support and moved higher in yesterday's session. The pair breached the 20Wsma and is trading above that. On the upside, it has resistance at the 173.52 and 174 levels. In yesterday's session, the pair gave a stellar rally, breached the near- and short-term moving averages and closed above those. Today, the pair opened and crossed the previous day high, but it was unable to stay there. We recommend selling at cmp or wait for a minor correction to enter again. On the down side, it has strong support at the 172.65 level. In case a daily close is below 172.65, bears will push the pair again in the near term.
For an intraday basis, the price is closed and is trading above the key hourly moving averages. But the hourly momentum oscillators are indicating a sell sign. The pair has support at 172.60, below this 172.15 is the major hourly support. If it is hit, this will lead some selling pressure up to 171.77, 171.65, and 171.35. The panic will trigger below the 171.35 level.
Fresh buy only above 173.45.
The stronger US dollar pushed the metal towards key support level of $1,240, then made a low at $1,243.50. Free fall is expected again below $1,240 towards $1,230 initially, later at the $1,224 and $1,210 levels. On the other side, it has resistance at $1,257.80 and above this at $1,276. Until the metal closes above $1,276, sell on every up move. Today the metal opened below the previous day close; it means that weakness is still keeping in the metal. For an intraday trading view, the metal has support at $1,243.50 or 8hr low; below this $1,240 is the game changer level. The metal is facing strong resistance between 35DEMA and $1,2ema in h4 chart at the $1,250-$1,252.50 levels. Above this, the metal can move upwards to the $1,256.60, $1,257.80, and $1,260 levels. We can see a sharp upmove only above $1,257.80 (rounded to $1,258), safe buy will be triggered only above $1,260 for the $1,265 and $1,271 levels. Until a h4 candle closes above $1,260, selling on upmove will mint the money. Fresh sell will emerge below $1,240 with immediate targets the $1,235, $1,233, and $1,230 levels.
In Asia, Japan will release the BSI Manufacturing Index. Besides, the US will also release some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage and 30-y Bond Auction. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 107.25.
Resistance. 2: 107.04.
Resistance. 1: 106.83.
Support. 1: 106.58.
Support. 2: 106.37.
Support. 3: 106.16. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m, French CPI m/m, ECB Monthly Bulletin, and Spanish HPI q/q. The US will release the economic data too such as the Natural Gas Storage and 30-y Bond Auction. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2980.
Strong Resistance:1.2973.
Original Resistance: 1.2960.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2947.
Target Inner Area: 1.2917.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2887.
Original Support: 1.2874.
Strong Support: 1.2861.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2854.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The pair moved to a month high trading at 137.95, the high was hit at the 138.27 level. The pair touched the 20Wsma in the weekly chart, above this it has a strong resistance level at 138.81 50Wsma. A weekly close above this turns the short-term view to positive. For an intraweek basis, the pair has strong resistance level at the 138.30 and 138.40 levels. We recommend buying only above 138.40, so safe trade will be possible only above the 138.80 level. In yesterday's session, the pair was unable to breach the 138.27 level of September 03 high. Today, it opened under the previous high. It represents 138.27 acting as strong resistance on an intraweek basis. On the down side, it has support at 137.55 and major support between the 137.30-137.20 levels. In case a daily close is below 137.20, the bears will control the pair.
On an intraday basis, the prices are closed and trading above the key hourly moving averages. But the hourly momentum oscillators are indicating a sell sign. We recommend selling at cmp with sl 138.27 for a downside target at the 137.73, 137.66, and 137.60 levels. This view is suitable for hourly traders or speculators. On an intraday basis, the pair has support at the 137.60, 137.40, and 137 levels.
Speculators could sell with sl 138.27, cmp 138.03.
Daily chart: The USDX continues forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 83.74. So, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 84.29. However, if the USDX makes a breakout at the support level of 83.74, it is expected to fall to the level of 83.22. The MACD indicator stays in the positive territory.
H4 chart: The USDX has again encountered resistance at the level of 84.47. Now, the USDX is trying to make a rebound to the bullish trend line to continue strengthening the bullish trend in the medium term. However, the USDX manages to make a breakout in the trend line, it is expected to fall to the level of 83.50. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.
H1 chart: The USDX has made a pullback at the resistance level of 84.37. Now, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 84.18. However, the USDX could consolidate above the 84.37 level to go up to the resistance level of 84.60. The MACD indicator stays in the positive territory.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.18, take profit is at 84.37, and stop loss is at 83.99.
Daily chart: GBP/USD had a strong bullish momentum above the support level of 160.46. So, this pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6235. If it succeeds, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6326 to fill the bearish gap. However, the GBP/USD pair could be forming a bearish pattern. The MACD indicator remains in the oversold zone.
H4 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to touch the resistance level of 1.6247. So, this could make a breakout at that level to climb to the resistance level of 1.6435. However, if the GBP/USD pair makes a pullback at the current levels, it is expected to fall until the support level of 1.6004. GBP/USD is kept below the 200-day moving average and MACD indicator stays in the positive territory.
H1 chart: The GBP/USD pair managed to consolidate above the support level of 1.6170. Now, this pair is trying to form a higher high pattern. If the GBP/USD pair manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6216, the next target would be the 1.6252 level. The MACD indicator stays in the positive territory.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6170, take profit is at 1.6117, and stop loss is at 1.6225.
EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument has not gone significantly in any direction this week. There is currently a serious amount of volatility in the market as a result of the struggle between the bull and the bear. When there is a directional movement, it is likely to be southwards, which can take the target towards the support level at 1.2850 again.
USD/CHF: Since last month – and so far this month – the USD/CHF has gone upwards. The price is now going above the support level at 0.9350. It may test the resistance level at 0.9400.
GBP/USD: There is a formidable rally in the market – although the dominant bias is bearish. This is because the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the price is below the level 50. For a bullish signal to form in the chart, the EMA 11 needs to cross the EMA 56 to the upside and the RSI period 14 needs to cross the level 50 to the upside. Should this condition fail to be fulfilled, the price could drop back towards the accumulation territory at 1.6100.
USD/JPY: In a conspicuous bullish trend, the USD/JPY pair was able to go above the demand level at 106.50. Therefore, the supply level at 107.00 is an easy target that should be hit very soon. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they are supposed to have impact on the markets.
EUR/JPY: Further weakness in the Yen and a measure of bullish determination in the EUR has made the EUR/JPY cross gone upwards. As expected, there is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price is supposed to continue going north, reaching the targets at the supply zones of 138.00 and 138.50.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com