Gold analysis for December 19, 2013 Trend News

Yesterday, we mentioned that our favorite wave scenario was that we are currently in wave 4 and a final wave down to new lows was anticipated. The confirmation would come if $1,220-$1,210 was broken. We also expected prices to break resistance or support levels after the announcement of the FED policy regarding the tapering of the QE program.

Gold prices broke down and are now trading at $1,200. As long as prices trade below the purple trend line resistance, we will remain short with $1,180-$1,190 minimum targets. This is most probably the final 5th wave from $1,360.Stop for bears now is the $1,245 level. Bulls could find support at $1,190-$1,180 where the previous lows are.

The daily chart continues to support short positions as trend remains downward. Important daily resistance is the $1,268 price level. A daily close above that price level will confirm trend reversal in the short term. Our target remains at $1,180-$1,190 in the short term.

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Silver trading lower. Eyeing below 18.00 for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The 4H chart shows that the metal has drifted lower to sub 19.20 levels today before pulling back. Immediate resistance level is the 20.25/50 region, followed by 21.00 and 23.00; while support is at sub 19.00 levels followed by 18.00. It is recommended to sell intraday rallies for now and refrain from buying. Silver has shown resilience by not breaking lower to 19.00 levels and hence showing divergence to Gold. It is recommended not to commit, aggressive buying or selling at this moment. A clear break of 19.00 and subsequently 18.00 would be required to shift focus towards 16.00 and 17.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. 20.50 is resistance.

Good luck!

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Gold hits 1,200.00. Resistance is 1,252/53. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The 4H chart depicts that the metal has formed a new channel resistance after breaking the primary trend line; and is currently drifting lower. The potential downside extensions ate 1,178.00 and 1,156.00 for now. Resistance begins from 1,245.00, followed by 1,252.00 and 1,270.00; while support is 1,180.00. It is recommended to refrain from buying at the moment and instead sell rallies through 1,220/25 levels for now. The maximum downside potential still remains through 1,050/40 levels; which was past resistance (2008); and shall be support now. Keep watch at 1,150.00 levels though.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. 1,252/53 is resistance.

Good luck!

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GBPCHF rallies as expected. 1.4750 is resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The pair is proving to be an ideal candidate to initiate short positions around the 1.4750 levels. As seen here, the single currency pair has staged an impressive counter trend rally as expected and discussed yesterday. It is therefore recommended to initiate short positions around the 1.4720/50 mark. Risk shall remain at 1.4900 levels. Immediate resistance is at 1.4750 (the fibonacci 0.618 retracement), followed by 1.48 and 1.49; while supports are spread through 1.4350, followed by 1.4200 and 1.4 respectively. The downside extensions are pointing at 1.4 levels. This down leg should be achieved very quick.

Trading recommendations:

Sell at 1.4700/50, stop at 1.4900, target is at 1.4 and lower

Good luck!

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Analysis of #USDX for December 19, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index, as expected by our previous analysis, has picked up volatility and is trending upwards. After back testing the resistance at 79.80 prices have started an upward move that reached the 80.60-70 resistance area. Prices have paused the rise at that price level and are now pulling back.

Short-term trend is up as prices have formed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. As long as prices trade above 79.90 we expect to see even higher levels being tested. Bulls will need to break the resistance trend line that comes from 81.50. The pull back could be an opportunity to buy again with 79.80-90 stop. Bulls will need to show more signs of strength by breaking above the 80.70 resistance.

The daily chart shows clearly yesterday's upward thrust after the FED announcement of its strategy. We expect prices to challenge the red area resistance and move towards our longer term target of 82.50. We remain bullish as long as prices trade above 79.80

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 19, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6808

R2: 1.6750

R1: 1.6706

Current Spot: 1.6693

S1: 1.6642

S2: 1.6608

S3: 1.6569

Technical summary:

The FED desicion also produced a minor new high at 1.6807 here. The 1.6807 high was followed by a quick decline to 1.6569. That could have ended the leading diagonal, but it could also just be the minor wave iv and wave v now developing towards 1.6869 and once wave v is in place a new correction towards 1.6569 should be seen. No matter, which count is correct we should expect minor support at 1.6642 will protect the downside for a new rally past 1.6807. Then time will show which count is the correct count.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6600 was hit for a nice profit. We will buy EUR again at 166.50 or upon a break above 1.6712 with a stop at 1.6560.

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