Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview

As we can see on the H4 chart, a breakout of minor resistance 187.36 suggested that rebound from 180.36 was resuming. More importantly, the development argues that a correction pattern at 195.86 is completed with three waves down to 180.36. The pair is expected to head towards the next resistance level of 95.86. The breakout of the medium-term trend-line support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition inthe weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200 . A break of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and cause a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious as strong resistance of 199.80/200.00 could finally bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.94; (P) 186.06; (R1) 187.89;

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Several months ago, when bulls pushed the price above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened the way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied to the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was rather bullish. That is why an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be expected. Bulls are revisiting this level today.

Bearish corrective movement towards the level of 1.2750 (Breakout Level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep defending the Fibonacci Expansion zone around 1.3270 - 1.3300.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.3100 (lower limit of the depicted Flag pattern) is needed to expose the next support level around 1.2910 and then 1.2800 where long-term buy entries can be considered.

Trading recommendations:

A counter-trend sell entry can be offered at the current price levels around 1.3330 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%). S/L should be placed above the level of 1.3400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.3200 and 1.3050.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes the recent strong support.

S/L should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The pair was moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection that took place around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will take place only if a high of 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month.

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Extensive bullish pressure was applied until bearish resistance was expressed around the level of 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing further beyond the price level of 1.1500 (Daily Supply Level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejection (note the recent daily candlesticks).

The current price zone of 1.1300-1.1330 constitutes an intraday supply level which provided bearish rejections many times before. It should be defended by bears to achieve further bearish decline.

That's why, an Intraday SELL entry can be offered around the current price levels with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 and 1.1050.

On the other hand, daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a valid BUY entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing evident resistance for the GBP/USD pair.

For several weeks, consecutive weekly candlesticks have been generating contradictory signals.

Previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

The most recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing ones, closing below the level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline).

This enhances the bearish side of the market in the long term. For the reversal pattern, an approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.5200.

It constituted a prominent demand level that prevented further weekly decline. It is where the previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was initiated.

Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the previous prominent top, was temporarily broken enabling further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was established.

Prominent supply/resistance existed around the level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern.

That is why, a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting at 1.5770 three weeks ago. Most of its targets have been already achieved.

Moreover, the previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (Prominent Demand Level), which prevented further bearish decline. Instead of it, evident bullish rejection was expressed (bullish engulfing daily candlesticks).

Trade Recommendation:

A valid sell entry should expect around the current price zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (recent resistance zone). It corresponds to (50% Fibonacci level) and the backside of a broken uptrend.

T/P levels to be projected towards 1.5200 then 1.5050, while S/L should be placed above 1.5600.

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EUR/NZD analysis for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.7869. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume (looks like successful test of a supply bar). The intraday trend is bullish so watch only for potential buying opportunities on the dips. I found strong trading range between the levels of 1.8000 (resistance) and 1.7270 (support). In the H1 time frame, we can observe strength and no big weakness. Buying looks very risky. We may see potential re-testing of our resistance at the level of 1.8000.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7810

R2: 1.7850

R3: 1.7920

Support levels:

S1: 1.7670

S2: 1.7630

S3: 1.7555

Trading recommendations: Strength is on the market. The trend is upward so watch only for potential buying opportunities on the dips. Strong resistance is at the price of 1.8000.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Overnight, US stocks kept pushing higher as energy shares gained on rallying oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8% to 16,739, the S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 1,995, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,889. Nymex crude oil surged 5.7% to $47.15 a barrel, gold was up 1.5% to $1,119 an ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield hiked further to 2.301% from 2.281%. Meanwhile, the US dollar edged lower against other major currencies as the US government reported that CPI edged down 0.1% MoM in August as expected. It was the first decline since January. GBP/USD surged 1.0% to 1.5492, AUD/USD gained 0.8% to 0.7195, while USD/CAD was down 0.6% to 1.3168. The pair posted a rebound from the level of 120.30 (current key support) overnight. It remains on the upside and is well supported by the ascending 50-period intraday moving average (MA). Meanwhile, the intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) is round the neutrality level of 50. Once the first upside target at 121 (around yesterday's high) is reached, the pair is expected to proceed to the second upside target at 121.75 (around the high of September 11).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.30 and the second target at 121.75. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120. if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.35. The pivot point is at 120.35.

Resistance levels: 121.30 121.75 122.35

Support levels: 120 19.35 119.10

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair remains capped by the declining 50-period MA. Furthermore, the upward potential should be limited by its key resistance at 0.9720. Besides, the intraday RSI is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 0.9720 holds as the key resistance, look for choppy price action with down targets at 0.9650 and 0.9625 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9650. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9625. The pivot point stands at 0.9720. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9765 and the second target at 0.9795.

Resistance levels: 0.9765 0.9795 0.9825

Support levels: 0.9650 0.9625 0.9545

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as the pair is moving upside. The pair is well supported by its rising 20-period intraday MA, which stays above its 50-period. A double bottom pattern has been validated and calls for further upside. And the intraday RSI is positively oriented as well. Further upside movement is expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 188.45 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance towards a high of 189 reached on September 14. Only a break below the horizontal support at 186.60 would open the way to further weakness.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 188.45 and the second target at 189. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 185.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 185.90. The pivot point is at 186.60.

Resistance levels: 188.45 189 189.95

Support levels: 185.70 184.90 184.10

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range as there is bullish bias above 0.6310. The pair has entered a consolidation after striking against the first upside target at 0.6380 repeatedly. Meanwhile, a key support level has been formed at 0.6310 and should limit downside potential. If 0.6380 is finally broken, the pair is expected to proceed to the second upside target at 0.6400 (last seen on September 9).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6380 and the second target at 0.64. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6290 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6250. The pivot point is at 0.6310.

Resistance levels: 0.6380 0.64 0.6425

Support levels: 0.6290 0.6250 0.6230

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Gold analysis for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,123.92. The intraday trend is neutral. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe a volume spike (potential buying climax) bar and weak close of the bar (closed on the middle), which means buying looks very risky at this stage and that selling is preferable. My advice is to watch for potential selling opporutnities after retracement. Support levels are at the prices of $1,107.60 and $1,100.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,120.15

R2: 1,122.55

R3: 1,126.40

Support levels:

S1: 1,112.45

S2: 1,110.00

S3: 1,101.95

Trading recommendations: Volume spike (potential buying climax) is at the price of $1,123.60. Be very careful when buying gold at this stage and watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. We may expect strong reaction from sellers and potential absorption volume.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair has been still moving between the prices of 1.1386 and 1.1285. So, the support has been already placed at the 1.1285 level. Thus, if the trend does not fail to close below the level of 1.1285, It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.1386 and test this strong resistance (the price of 1.1386 will form the weekly resistance 1). At the same time, the price of 1.1386 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. On the other hand, sell below the level of 1.1386, which represents the weekly resistance 1 with the first target at the 1.1290 price. Moreover, if the trend can break this support at 1.1290, then the EUR/USD pair will continue dropping towards the second target at 1.1184.

Trading recommendations:

• According to previous events, the price of EUR/USD is going to move between 1.1285 and 1.1386.
• Buy above the level of 1.1285 with the first target of 1.1335, it might resume to 1.1386.
• Below the level of 1.1386, look for further downside with 1.1290 and 1.1184 targets.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The GBP/USD pair is in the short term (September 17, 2015).
• The price of the GBP/USD pair is going to turn to bullish sentiment from the level of 1.5475 again. The level of 1.5475 is representing a double bottom today. Accordingly, it will be a good decision to buy above the double bottom at 1.5475 with the first target of 1.5544 to test the weekly resistance 2 in this area. Then, if the price breaks the weekly resistance 2, it will call for an uptrend market in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.5600 with a view to form a new double top on the H1 chart. Equally important, the resistance would be at the 1.5600 level. Additionally, the trading range today will be between the levels of .1.5475 and 1.5600. However, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the price of 1.5440, so the stop loss should be set in 35 pips since the risk of 105 pips could make profit of 60 pips (take profit = 3 * stop loss).

Intraday technical levels:

• Projected high: 1.5600
• Breakout (buy stop): 1.5544
• Current pivot: 1.5509
• Strong support (buy limit): 1.5475
• Projected low: 1.5443

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USD/JPY technical analysis for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The USD/JPY pair is trading inside a triangle pattern that is very similar to one, which equity markets have been showing diring the last couple of weeks. With the FOMC meeting tonight, I expect volatility to rise and we should probably see a breakout above or below the triangle.

Black lines - triangle pattern

USD/JPY is trading around the Ichimoku cloud and inside the triangle pattern as is showed above in the 4-hour chart. Today's rejection in the area of 121 will increase chances of a move below the cloud towards 119.50. Breaking below the level of 119 will increase chances of a push towards 118-117.

Red line - support

USD/JPY is moving upwards making higher highs and higher lows. The trend is bullish in the short-term as long as the price is above the red trend line support. Breaking below 120.40 will give us a short-term sell signal. Rising volatility is expected tonight, so traders should be very cautious and expect big price swings that can easily be faded.

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USDX technical analysis for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US Dollar Index was rejected once again by the green trend line resistance and pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. With the FOMC meeting tonight, everyone expects the Fed rate decision. I prefer to wait with a neutral stance and let the dust settle after the Fed's rate announcement.

Green line - resistance

The US Dollar Index remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance remains at 96-96.10, so a daily close above this level will be a bullish signal. However, I believe we could still see a sharp decline towards the 61.8% retracement before resuming the uptrend.

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart remains in a neutral trend but with a bullish flag formation. Tonight we will have more information as to where the market is heading. Longer-term support is at 92-93 while resistance is seen at 96.50 and 98. A weekly close above the red trend-line resistance will be a bullish signal.

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Gold technical analysis for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price broke above the short-term resistance line and moved towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and Ichimoku cloud resistance as we expected. Yesterday, we forecasted a strong probability of a bounce towards the first important resistance of $1,120-25.

Black line - broken resistance trend line

Gold price is inside the Ichimoku cloud resistance and just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Gold price bounced towards $1,120 as we had expected. I believe traders should still be patient and wait for an opportunity to trade. Resistance is seen at $1,125 and support is found at $1,100.

Gold price bounced as expected towards the weekly tenkan-sen resistance indicator at $1,120. Tonight, volatility is expected to rise. I would prefer to stay neutral and see what happen before entering the market. Gold has increased chances of a bigger bounce towards $1,200 as long as we close above $1,100.

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Global macro overview for 17/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 17/09/2015

Besides the main event of the day, the Fed's interest rate decision, there is still some interesting news form UK to be released at 8.30 am GMT. This piece of data should be worth watching, because the BoE is after a rate hike as well and the recent report from the labor market supports the hawkish outlook. Retail sales are expected to decrease by 3.8% y/y, which is a slight decrease from 4.2% y/y, but it is still a decent, solid number for a consumer driven economy like UK. Moreover, the steady pickup in growth rate is next factor to influence the BoE to get ready for the interest rate hike in the near future.

The GBP/USD pair has tested the golden trend line from the downside and now it is sliding towards the support at the level of 1.5475. Any breakout lower will confirm the bearish technical outlook and traders should keep an eye on the next support at the level of 1.5330.

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Technical analysis of Silver for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be testing $15.00 again together with the 50-day moving average resistance line. Please note that the trend line and fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also just around the levels of $15.00/10. Bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below $15.60 at least. It is hence recommended to remain short for now with risk at $15.60. Immediate support is seen at the levels of $14.00, followed by $13.00, $12.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $15.60 followed by $16.40, $17.50, and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at $15.50/60, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 17/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 17/09/2015

The day that financial market participants awaited for months is finally here and all eyes are fixed on the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference later tonight. The main question remains whether the Fed will decide to start raising the short-term rates this month or wait until December 2015. Moreover, the next most important thing for traders and investors seems to be Fed's rhetoric about the inflation and inflationary pressure, mostly due to the 2% inflation gauge that the Fed had set months ago. So far, the data from the US economy do show a stable and constant improvement in the labor market, however the core personal consumption, expenditure price index, and manufacturing price indeces are still relatively underperforming and remain stubborn low.

The SPX (S&P500 ETF) has entered a neutral zone again and is currently trading above the level of 197.80. It looks like the market might test the golden trend line before making the decision whether to breakout towards new highs or reverse back to the bearish zone (depending on the Fed's news).

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has rallied further towards the levels of $1,120.00/25.00 as expected. The metal stalled at a fibonacci 0.50 resistance as depicted here. Please note that bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below $1,170.00 for now. It is hence recommended to remain short for now, with risk at $1,150.00 levels at least. Immediate support is seen at $1,100.00 followed by $1,090.00, $1,075.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,150.00 (interim) followed by $1,170.00, $1,200.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at $1,150.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 17/09/2015 08:45 CET

After reaching a low for the wave (b) blue at the levels of 135.00, the market sharply reversed to the upside in an impulsive fashion to hit the lower channel boundary at the level of 136.60. Currently, the market is trying to breakout even higher to test the intraday resistance at the level of 137.04. But ahead of the important Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, this kind of moves must be treated very carefully.

Support/Resistnace:

138.80 - WR1

137.04 - Intraday Resistnace (strong)

135.88 - Intraday Support

135.72 - Weekly Pivot

134.53 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Due to the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, traders should refrain from trading.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair had bounced off from 135.00 levels earlier and is stalling strading around 136.60. The pair might produce an up gartley and drop to the levels of 134.00 before rallying further. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate short positions now with risk at the levels of 137.30, while a more conservative approach would be to remain flat and look for an opportunity to go long around the levels of 134.00/50. Immediate support is seen at 135.00 (interim) followed by 134,00, 132.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 137.00 (interim), followed by 139.00, 140.00/141.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

1. Aggressive: Initiate short positions with stop at 137.30, a target is 134.00

2. Conservative: Remain flat now. Go long at 134.00/50 with stop at 132.00, a target is open.

Good lick!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 17/09/2015 08:30 CET

Yesterday's downside breakout made the price hit the weekly pivot support and intraday support at the level of 1.3153. It slightly reversed back to the level of 1.3178. A breakout above the level of 1.3325 will invalidate an impulsive bearish count. It is expected to reach a new high above the level of 1.3352 (it will be the last high in this market anyway). In the mean time, market participants are awaiting the Fed's meeting interest rate decision and press conference.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3399 - WR2

1.3353 - Swing High

1.3334 - WR1

1.3325 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3243 - Weekly Pivot

1.3178 - WS1

1.3152 - Intraday Support

1.3136 - Intraday Support

1.3114 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading until one of the levels is violated and more clear pattern will become visible.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 17, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.5060 levels now after bouncing off from 1.4900 yesterday. Please note that 1.4900 was resistance, which turned support, and bulls are expected to remain in control until prices stay above the same level. It is hence recommended to remain long from positions taken earlier, with risk at the levels of 1.4900. Immediate support is seen at 1.4900 followed by 1.4750, 1.4600, and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5100 (interim) followed by 1.5350, 1.5400/10, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 1.4900, a target is open.

Good luck!

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