Wednesday 22 January 2014

Technical analysis of gold for January 23 01 Trend News

Gold prices come under pressure with the strong dollar being likely to reduce demand for yellow metal. The metal is likely to remain under pressure before the Fed meeting this month end. Traders eye on FOMC meeting, what the outcome will be? IF the US Fed further cuts its bond purchasing program, the journey of the gold moves towards the bear court. Today's unemployment and home sales data can partly reveal the forward actions of Fed. Might be a big day for US dollar and gold. After the data published, we might see the short term trend for gold. Right now gold is trading in its crucial weekly support zone at the level of $1,230. Yesterday, it was unable to break the resistance zone at the level of $1,245 and it started falling further.


Attached in the hourly chart, oscillators sign a oversold position, resulted in a pullback. Prices are trading below 21DEMA, multi-highs at the levels of $1,243-$1,244 acting as strong resistance zone. We can observe the trading band at $1,230-$1,244.


Support- $1,230, $1,226, $1,220.


Resistance- $1,240, $1,244, $1,255.


In the daily charts oscillators are in a mixed bag, whereas stochastic in a extremely overbought zone. If prices break the previous support zone of $1,234, the immediate support exist at the level of $1,230.


Trading day on Thursday has started just now, prices are trading at the level of $1,233.5, having broken the weekly support zone, the 38.2retracementlevel is acting as support.


Intra day recommendation- Buy with sl at $1,230, targets are at $1,234 $1,240, cmp is $1,232.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released. It will be French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, Spanish Unemployment Rate, German Flash Manufacturing PM, German Flash Services PMI, Current Account, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI. The US will release some economic data such as the US-Unemployment Claims, US-Flash Manufacturing PMI, US-HPI m/m, US-Existing Home Sales, US-CB Leading Index m/m, US-Natural Gas Storage, US-Crude Oil Inventories, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3603.


Strong Resistance:1.3595.


Original Resistance: 1.3582.


Inner Sell Area: 1.3569.


Target Inner Area: 1.3537.


Inner Buy Area: 1.3505.


Original Support: 1.3492.


Strong Support: 1.3479.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.3471.


DESCRIPTION:


Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3492 and 1.3582. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3479 and by 1.3595 as strong resistance.


If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3471 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3603 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3505 and at 1.3569, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3537.


Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 23, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Monthly Report, and the US will release some economic data such as US-Unemployment Claims, US-Flash Manufacturing PMI, US-HPI m/m, US-Existing Home Sales, US-CB Leading Index m/m, US-Natural Gas Storage, US-Crude Oil Inventories . So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3 : 105.08.


Resistance. 2 : 104.87.


Resistance. 1 : 104.67.


Support. 1 : 104.41.


Support. 2 : 104.21.


Support. 3 : 104.00.


DESCRIPTION:


Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (104.00) and resistance 3 (105.08). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.


Disclaimer:


Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of Dow Jones for January 23 01 Trend News

The Dow trading at a trend line, a low made on October 2013. It gave a strong return on a strong trend line. Now it is trading at a strong resistance trend line. Today's unemployment and home sales data can make big moves in the street. Due to that the bond yields are weak, we can expect a pullback from lower levels. If the Dow closes above 16,700, it creates a new trend targets.


In the daily chart oscillators sign a sell signal. In yesterday's trade, prices broke previous support at the level of 16,370 and well managed to close above 21DEMA. In the hourly charts 21DEMA is acting as strong resistance at the level of 16,397. If prices break it, we can pull back up to 16,444.


Support- 16,240.


Resistance- 16,562, 16,700.


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Technical analysis of Gold for January 23, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold fails at $1,268.00 and retraces lower taking out support at sub $1,235.00 levels during early trading hours today. It is recommended to sell on rallies towards $1,249.00/50.00 from here on. Risk remains at $1,262.00/65.00.


2. Immediate resistance is now at $1,260.00/61.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,267.00/68.00, while supports are spread through $1,220.00, followed by $1,209.00 and lower.


3. Watch out for support and a bounce around $1,210.00 for initiating long positions. A failure at that level would indicate further downside below $1,180.00.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate short positions around $1,249.00, stop is at $1,265.00, target is $1,210.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair remains locked between 141.00/50 for now. It is still recommended to remain flat and look towards the 143.00/50 region to initiate short positions.


2. Immediate resistance is at 143.00/50, followed by 145.00/50, while supports are spread through 138.50, followed by 134.00 and 131.00 respectively.


3. The structure reveals that a meaningful top could be in place at 145.50. A counter trend rally could extend towards 143.00 providing opportunities to initiate short positions.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to sell around 143.00/50.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 23, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF rallied yesterday and in early trading session today it went through the level of 1.5120. The weekly chart setup depicted here is pointing towards possible extensions at 1.5140/50 and 1.5340/50 respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now after being stopped out at 1.5030 yesterday.


2. Immediate resistance is at 1.5140/50, while supports are spread through 1.4920/30 followed by 1.4700 and lower.


3. The structure reveals that 1.5140/50 is a convergence of fibonacci resistance levels as seen here and that a reaction (bearish) is expected.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to sell after a bearish signal confirmation at 1.5140/50.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 23, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX fell to the 200 SMA and there made a bullish rebound, so it is very likely that the USDX will continue to be firm in the current bullish trend. Recall that the next target of the USDX could be the resistance level of 81.50. However, there is still the possibility that the USDX will consolidate again below the 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX has formed a fractal below the support level of 80.99. Now, the USDX is trying to break the resistance level of 81.19 again. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 81.29. On the other hand, it's expected that USDX will continue making sideways movements for the rest of the week. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX made a bullish rebound above the 200 SMA and has consolidated above the support level of 81.09. Our recommendation was activated yesterday, so it is very likely that USDX make a breakout again at the level of 81.09. On the other hand, USDX is likely to rise to the resistance level of 81.40 after forming a bullish pattern bullish. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 81.09, take profit is at 80.93, and stop loss is at 81.25.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview :



  • This week, the GBP/USD pair has an upside movement from 1.6415 to 1.6517, and today the market has opened at the price of 1.6566. Furthermore, the uptrend represents the double bottom of the channel emerging at the level of 1.6415. It is equally important that the RSI has still been positive in the daily time frame, so it calls for a new upward movement. Therefore, the price movement will be trapped between 1.6615 and 1.6466 (Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Moreover, the pair has already formed major support at the level of 1.6503. For that it should be noted that the price was set above this level a long time ago, and the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.6500, with the first target at 1.6565, then if it breaks 1.655, there will be a breakout above this level with the second target at the 1.6611 price. However, the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 1.6412.

  • Note :



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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD failed to break the resistance level of 1.6540, after it had formed a bullish pattern below this level, so it is very likely that the bullish trend will remain strong for the rest of the week. The next goal of this pair will be the resistance level of 1.6663, so this pair is expected to start forming another bullish pattern (lower high). The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H4 chart: This pair is below the strength level of 1.6592 , and it is very likely to start to form a lower high pattern to perform a breakout there. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6680. Moreover, if this pair is able to consolidate below the level of 1.6550, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6516. The MACD indicator is entering extremely overbought zone.


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H1 chart: This pair is forming a bullish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6578 and below the point of control. Keep in mind that this pair has consolidated above the 200 SMA and the bullish trend has been too vertical, so we expect corrective movements in the coming hours. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6629, and stop loss is at 1.6526.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 23, 2014 Trend News

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Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair had a breakdown and extended further to as low as 0.8760 last week, and it closed at 0.8844 today as well as the price was placed below 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels for two days. Additionally, it should be noted that the price had formed a strong support at the level of 0.8760. Futhermore, this strong level has still been trapped between 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 00% in H1 and H4 chart. Accordingly, it is probably that the market will start showing the signs of bullish market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity in the short term from the 0.8760 level of (00% of Fibonacci retracement levels) with a target towards the strong resistance around 0.8920. Meanwhile, the bulls will be forced to pull back below the level of this area. Thus, this level will act as a spot to sell in the long term on January 23, 2013. For that it will a good sign to sell below 0.8923 with a target at the price of 0.8810 and it might resume to the 0.8756 price in order to form a double bottom.


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Gold analysis for January 22, 2014 Trend News

The upward correction in Gold prices from $1,180 will soon reach an end. Prices could very well have already topped and the downward move could already have started. However as long as prices trade above $1,234 there is still a chance that we can see gold prices reach $1,270.


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Gold's rising wedge seems broken but we could see another try to reach the blue noted area in the above chart where our initial correction target was. We prefer to look on the bearish side using close by stops. In this case we would use the recent high as a stop at $1,259.50. If prices break below $1,234, we will have a confirmation of the important top. The rise from the recent lows is far from impulsive. The form of the rise implies that this is just a correction and when it will end, the downward pressures will resume.


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The daily chart confirms that there is strong resistance in the area that gold is currently trading in. Not only the previous neckline provides resistance, but also the downward sloping purple channel boundaries provide strong resistance. That is why we believe that it is time for gold prices to reverse downwards again. Our longer-term target remains $1,140.


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#USDX analysis for January 22, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index continues to be in an upward short-term trend. This bullish trend remains intact as long as prices trade above the upward sloping trend line support. The short-term support is found at 80.90. The short-term resistance is found at 81.20. Prices make a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This is bullish.


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This upward trend is expected to continue. Prices are now making a back test of the trend line support. The most important support level for bulls is 80.40. Breaking below that level will diminish the chances of success for our bullish view. Moreover, bulls will need to see the index break above 81.50 in order to confirm our target of 82.50.


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Concluding, although the short-term trend is down, prices still find it hard to break above the important resistance area as noted with blue in the above chart. We expect this upward move to continue and eventually break the resistance level at 81.50. Stop for long positions is 80.40. Short positions should use 81.50 as stop. We favor the bullish potential with 83-84 as a target.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 22, 2014 Trend News


GBP/USD has been moving within a wide-ranged price zone extending between 1.5900 and 1.6250 until November 27 when a bullish breakout took place.


Since this breakout, the bulls have been defending 1.6250 as a prominent support for them. Further successful retesting took place on mid of December that pushed the pair again to the upside.


The daily chart shows recent bearish rejection at the upper limit of the ongoing channel around 1.6590 (on January 2). This pushed the pair towards 1.6310 where another bullish impulse was initiated.


Based on the mentioned bullish breakout, the GBP/USD pair has a projection target located around 1.6630. Any BUY positions should be closed there.


In the long -term, there is a prominent WEEKLY resistance located around 1.6740. Daily fixation above 1.6600-1.6630 will probably open the way towards it. However, we should notice price action at 1.6630 initially as bearish rejection may take place off there.


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GOLD analysis for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around the price of 1,242.00, we are still waiting for bullish movement and a possible test of previous swing high at 1,260.00.We can observe lacking of supply and volume leveling off around the price of 1,238.00, which is a good sign that gold may start bullish movement. Since the price has broken in the background the level of 1,254.00, we may expect testing of previous swing high at 1,260.00 and possible testing of major FE 100 % at 1,279.00-1,295.00. Do not forget, gold is in bearish trend and we are now in bullish corrective phase. If our submajor FR61.8 % at 1,244.00 can not hold, we may see testing of major FR 38.2 % around the price of 1,233.00-1,230.00, before another bullish movement. Anyway, selling gold at this stage looks risky since gold is in progress of bullish corrective phase, and we saw volume leveling off in the background. Watch for buying opportunities.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,251.64


R2: 1,256.20


R3: 1,263.57


Support levels:


S1: 1,236.90


S2: 1,232.34


S3: 1,224.97


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with selling gold and try to catch bullish corrective phase.


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EUR/NZD analysis for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards,as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6328 on average volume. As you can see in the chart, after the selling climatic action at 1.6270, EUR/NZD started upward movement. Currently, we can observe volume leveling off at the price of 1.6246 which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. The first upper station FR 38.2 % at 1.6335 has been almost met and our FR 61.8 % at 1.6400 is still waiting.We can also observe demand in the background which is another sign that selling looks risky. In case that the price continues with downward movement, we may see the testing of previous swing low at 1.6220. Do not forget EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buyingopportunities and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6323


R2: 1.6344


R3: 1.6378


Support levels:


S1: 1.6254


S2 : 1.6233


S3: 1.6198


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair,watch for buying opportunities and try to catch bullish continuation phase.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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This week, the bulls managed to reach new price levels (around 1.1000) that haven't been reached since September 2009. This bullish momentum is purely fundamental-induced due to the positive data from the United States.


Yesterday, Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath comments about the probability to reduce further monetary easing in the next week applied further bullish pressure on the pair. However, the USD failed to keep its gains against the CAD as the USD/CAD pair was pushed again below 1.0975 by the end of the day.


The next prominent resistance level is located around 1.1230 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci Level of the bearish movement extending between March 2009 and July 2011.


Temporary resistance is located at the price level of 1.1000 as it corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel.


The USD/CAD pair has a prominent support zone at 1.0700-1.0750 which represents the upper limit of consolidation range that got broken this month.


Any further testing of this zone will provide a valid BUY entry for the mid-term.


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The 4H chart reveals the obvious bearish rejection (bearish engulfing candlestick) which was expressed Yesterday in reaction to price level of 1.1000.


The short-term view seems to be negative as long as the pair is consolidating below 1.0975. Today, the bears need to breakdown the next uptrend line that comes to meet the pair around 1.0950.


Breakdown of this uptrend line will probably open the way for a corrective movement towards 1.0900 then 1.0860. Otherwise, the long-term bullish scenario mentioned above would be intact.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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The bulls managed to break through 1.6450-1.6480 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels and the upper limit of the ongoing channel). This invalidated our short-term bearish scenario.


Fundamentally, the Sterling Pound rose quickly after showing a sharp decline in the unemployment rate. This enhanced the image on the economic recovery of the UK.


The unemployment rate has declined to 7.1% in the three months that ended in October, compared with the precedingthree months in which the reading was 7.4%.


Technically, the GBP/USD has two important levels, one to the downside located near 1.6480 acting as DEMAND level and the other one to the upside located near 1.6590 acting as SUPPLY level.


Visiting 1.6590-1.6600 has become so close especially after the positive fundamental data released today. Moreover, the short-term view turned to be positive with a suggested BUY entry at retesting of DEMAND zone at 1.6480-1.6450.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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Bullish movement above 1.3450 within the previous bullish channel allowed the pair to hit further supply levels around 1.3650 then 1.3750. This bullish momentum was taking place until obvious bearish rejection was expressed at 1.3850 (failing to reach 100% Fibonacci Expansion at 1.3904).


A breakdown of the depicted bullish channel took place shortly after (January 2). This led to the current bearish movement within the newly established bearish channel.


Within the depicted bearish channel, the bears managed to establish lower lows at 1.3550 then 1.3510.


Price Level of 1.3515 (lower limit of the bearish channel and previous low) has been rejecting the bears for three successive days enhanced by the presence of SMA-100 approximately at the same price zone.


The daily chart outlook remains negative probably targeting at 1.3460-1.3400 (prominent DEMAND levels on DAILY chart).


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Indecision around 100-SMA (located at 1.3660) led to a bearish movement towards 1.3500.


The pair remains moving within the channel probably heading to test the lower limit at 1.3450 where bullish rejection is expected to be found.


We should note that 1.3515 is an important key-level on the intraday basis. It corresponds to previous price ranges that goes back to December 3.


The bears need to achieve 4H fixation below 1.3515-1.3500 to gather enough bearish momentum to push towards 1.3400. Otherwise, a bullish impulse towards 1.3600 wouldn't be excluded.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6334


R2: 1.6307


R1: 1.6284


Current spot: 1.6263


S1: 1.6238


S2: 1.6190


S3: 1.6129


Technical summary:


The correction we expected to end at 1.6310 became slightly more complex and ended at 1.6334. However, in the short term we are looking for minor resistance at 1.6284 to protect the upside for the next decline towards 1.6129 and perhaps even lower towards 1.6049 to end wave (v) and iii. Once wave iii is in place look for a complex correction in wave iv towards 1.6315 and likely even higher to 1.6431 before the last impulsive decline towards the ideal target at 1.5793.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 1.6405 and lower your stop to 1.6340 and keep take profit at 1.6150. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 1.6285 or upon a break below 1.6238 with the same stop and take profit levels.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 22, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 141.77


R2: 141.49


R1: 141.29


Current spot: 141.25


S1: 140.92


S2: 140.60


S3: 140.32


Technical summary:


With the break below support at 141.34 we knew that red wave ii was in place at 141.85 (just below the ideal target at 141.92). In the short term we will be looking for resistance at 141.49 to protect the upside for a break below support at 140.92 which confirms a continuation lower towards 137.64 and perhaps even lower towards 136.65 as the powerful red wave iii extends lower.


In the longer term we are looking for a major correction towards 125.99.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short from 141.85 with your stop at 142.90 Move stop lower to 141.90 upon a break below 140.92. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 140.92 with stop at 141.90.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 22, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 22/01/2014 08:30 CET


This pair is keeping making new higher highs and that is why I decided to take a look at the higher time frames like H4 to analyse the possible wave development. There is some evidence, that a termination pattern in shape of Ending Diagonal triangle is being formed on H4 time frame. Currently, there are three waves completed inside the Ending Diagonal and this pattern has one more wave up to complete before the sell off will happen. The projected target area for wave (v) blue is between the levels of 1.1037 - 1.1063. From there the impulsive wave progression should start and the first support for the sell off would be a blue trendline and Weekly Pivot at the level of 1.0939. To confirm this scenario, the breakout below the level of 1.0904 must happen as the first weak confirmation that the top is in place. Please notice that a Bearish Divergence has formed on momentum oscilator, supporting the scenario of a sudden price collapse after the target zone is hit.


Support/Resistance:


11087 - WR2


1.1037 - 1.1063 - Target Zone for wave (v)


1.1018 - Intraday High


1.0939 - Weekly Pivot


1.0904 - Wave (ii) support level


1.0887 - WS1


1.0839 - 1.0866 - Previous wave four area


1.0790 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Long positions should be opened from curent price levels with SL below the level of 1.0939 and TP at the level of 1.1037.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 22, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 22/01/2014 08:15 CET


The yesterday's labeling has been slightly changed and the top for wave (i) blue has been moved higher to the level of 141.82. The following price action is a corrective cycle wave (ii) blue and still more upward price progression is expected when the correction is finished. The first dynamic resistance is being provided by the golden trendline and only a breakout above the Key Level at 141.82 would mean the correction is over and an impulsive wave development has started. On the other hand, the correction might get more complex and time consuming if the mentioned golden trenline and Key Level are not violated. In that case there is a possibility, that Intraday Suport at the level of 141.02 will be tested again, but as long as the low at the level of 140.31 is not taken out, the outlook remains bullish.


Support/Resistance:


142.90 - Wave b green High


142.32 - WR1


141.82 - Intraday Resistance | Key Level|


141.42 - Weekly Pivot


141.02 - Intraday Support


140.31 - Swing Low


139.92 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


As I had mentioned before, the outlook is bullish and long positions should be open if the level of 141.83 is broken. In this case SL should be placed below the level of 141.59 and TP should be placed at the level of 142.15 and 142.32.


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