Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

Fundamental factors-

The German Ifo business confidence index fell for the first time for five months in March, data showed on Tuesday, as the Crimea crisis hurts the sentiment in Europe's biggest economy. The Ifo economic institute's closely watched business climate index fell to 110.7 points this month from 111.3 points in February. The Euro fell against most of its 16 major counterparts as below-forecast European business data fueled speculation that the region’s economy may struggle further to recover. On the other hand, the Fed indicated it could raise the US short-term rates earlier than expected, which is highly negative for the euro. Is this the starting point for trend reversal in EUR/USD?

Technical factors-

Forecast

EUR/USD made a long-term top in 2008 at the level of 1.6038. Since then it has corrected in a huge down trend channel which seems to be a double zigzag correction. Currently, it seems to have completed 'x' inside the larger Y of DZZ near 1.40, which is also weekly Channel Resistance, or if the pair trades above the level 1.3966, it may extend its rally up to 1.41 levels. With RSI Negative Divergence signaling reversal break, the area below 1.36 would be an indication of the short-term trend reversal towards 1.32.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, the pair is trading between the levels at 1.3749-1.3853. RSI is giving a positive indication, we expect the up move still to continue with sl at 1.3749. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3827 facing immediate resistance levels at 1.3830 and 1.3853. On the down side, the support exists at 1.3814 and 1.3780. If the pair breaks the 1.3749 level, next strong support level exists at 1.3714.

In the daily chart, RSI favors sell side. So any pull back leads to generate sell positions, and huge short covering will take place if the pair breaks the 1.3966 level on up side, until it go shorts on a positional basis at higher levels.

S1 1.3815 R1 1.3876

S2 1.3749 R2 1.3934

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Bank Stress Test Results, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3886.

Strong Resistance:1.3877.

Original Resistance: 1.3864.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3851.

Target Inner Area: 1.3818.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3785.

Original Support: 1.3772.

Strong Support: 1.3769.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3750.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3772 and 1.3864. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3769 and by 1.3877 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3750 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3886 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3785 and at 1.3851, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3818.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the CPI y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories,Bank Stress Test Results. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.81.

Resistance. 2: 102.61.

Resistance. 1: 102.41.

Support. 1: 102.16.

Support. 2: 101.96.

Support. 3: 101.76.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.76) and resistance 3 (102.81). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 26, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This is a bear market, and it is expected that the price would continue to go bearish in spite of the current turbulence in the market (plus the fact that there is a serious battle between the bulls and the bears). The support line at 1.3750 was tested last week, and this week; it is going to be tested again. Ultimately, the support line would be breached to the downside, as the price goes to the main target at 0.3700.

USD/CHF: The bias on the USD/CHF is bullish, though the market is currently volatile.In spite of the volatility, it is assumed that the bulls would continue to gain upper hands, pushing the price towards the resistance level at 0.8900, which is our target for this week or next week.

GBP/USD: There is a rally in this market, but it is expected to be transient. This is because the extant outlook is southward. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, though the RSI period 14 is almost giving a bullish signal. Should the price drop further, especially from the distribution territory at 1.6550, the price could reach the accumulation territory at 1.6450. At this time, the RSI period 14 would have crossed the level 50 to the downside.

USD/JPY: Basically, this is a sideways market, but it is likely that that the price would go upwards when it breaks out of the sideways phase. Upon a close look at the chart, it could be seen that the bulls are slightly exuding some preponderance in the market.

EUR/JPY: This cross is as good as being flat. Therefore, one would do well to wait for the next directional move before one takes a position. It is either the price would break the supply zone at 142.00 to the upside, or break the demand zone at 141.00 to the downside.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014 Trend News

The USD/JPY moved sideways in a narrow range between 102.01 and 102.50. Resistance is at 102.50, a break above this level will trigger another rise to test the 103.76 resistance. Support is at 102.01, a break down below this level will signal completion of the uptrend from 101.20, then the following downward movement could bring the price to the 100 and 98.00 zone.

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Technical analysis of USDX for March 26, 2014 Trend News

The data released on Tuesday showed U.S. Consumer confidence touching a six-year high in March and house prices rising in January. The majority of the FOMC members expect the first rate hike in 2015, which is a bullish note. The US Dollar Index has made a Double Bottom near 79 and reversed up. With Positive Divergence on RSI, the US Dollar Index has broken out of the short-term Falling Wedge. With this, the Correction in Wave 2 or X seems to have completed. Further breakout above 81 will be indicated to move towards 85 and perhaps 90 and above in the months to come.

In the daily chart, the US Dollar is facing strong resistance level at 80.34 (50SMA). If the price crosses the 50SMA level, it will fly up to 80.73 and 81.32 in the near term. On the down side, the level of 79.77 (50SMA) is acting as strong support, below it 79.27-79 is the major support.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has continued upward movements inside an impulsive [iii] wave (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue). In the hourly chart above, we can see that wave [iii] is unfolding in an double three pattern, and should currently be inside the final c of (y) wave. For traders who are holding long in the pair, we should start to consider moving our stops to break even or to close half of the positions at 0.9200 and leave rest to run. For trading opportunity today, we can only look for some short-term buying opportunity if we see a pullback, or to wait [iii] wave to complete the cycle from the 0.8993 level and to try sell the [iv] wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.9210 (161.8% of wave [i] ). To protect our buying position, we are going to use the low at the 0.9100 level as the stop loss point.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9077, (S2) 0.9098, (S1) 0.9131, (PP) 0.9152, (R1) 0.9185, (R2) 0.9206, (R3) 0.9239.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9130 with stop loss at 0.9100 and take profit at 0.9210 are recommended.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 26, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains below the level of 80.11, while the USDX is forming a bullish pattern to strengthen the bullish bias. If the USDX extends its decline to the support level of 79.55, next target would be the level of 79.19. On the other hand, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.62 if USDX executes a breakout level of 80.11. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is maintained within the range between the 80.09 and 79.93 levels. If the USDX manages to make a consolidation above the resistance level of 80.15, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.44, which would be a strengthening of bullish trend. For now, we recommend caution when placing orders within this range. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX made a bearish rebound at the resistance level of 80.15 and now the USDX is maintained above the 200 SMA and the support level of 79.88. If the USDX makes a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.64. On the other hand, the USDX can make a breakout at the level of 80.15. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.35, take profit is at 80.59, and stop loss is at 80.10.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6540. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6663 in the medium term, which would be a consolidation in the current bullish bias. However, if this pair makes a bearish rebound at that resistance level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6500. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: This pair is consolidating above the support level of 1.6516, so it is very likely that the GBP/USD is rising to the resistance level of 1.6583, where the 200-day moving average is. If the pair manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6644. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a rebound at the point of control at the level of 1.6475 and now this pair is consolidating above the support level of 1.6507 with the formation of a lower high pattern. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6544, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6578. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6507, take profit is at 1.6464, and stop loss is at 1.6549.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

The pair is trading with a mixed bag of signals in different time frames. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.6531. In the hourly chart H4, RSI is giving a buy signal and the pair is facing immediate resistance at 1.6539. If the pair trades above this level, we recommend to buy this pair for targets at 1.6560 and 1.6583. Whereas the level 1.6583 is the major resistance level, above this it will fly up to 1.6650 and 1.6718. On the downside, if the pair breaks the level of 1.6515, it will fall to 1.6481 and 1.6465.Whereas 1.6465 is crucial for bulls, a break below it will push the pair to 1.6383,1.6252, and 1.6180.

Weekly basis-

If the pair breaks and closes below the levels of 1.6465-1.6417, the red flag will be hoisted in the near term towards 1.6252, 1.62, and 1.6. Weekly momentum indicators are giving a sell signal.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.94 versus 80.13 early Monday) after Fed's Williams said U.S. central bank's policy is "fundamentally" unchanged and there is no suggestion from last week's Fed statement that rate hikes could come sooner than previously expected; drop in Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI to 55.5 in March from 57.1 in February; fall in three-month moving average of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index to -0.18 last month, the first reading below zero in six months for the average, from January's +0.02. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japan's exports sales and lingering concerns over the crisis in Ukraine. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy.

Technical сomment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is turning bearish, but MACD is bullish, 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:

102.65

102.85

103.15

Support levels:

101.75

101.45

101

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

The USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment and flows to safe-haven CHF amid lingering concerns over Crimea crisis. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5-day moving average is above 15-day MA and it is advancing but stochastics is turning bearish, bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8870 and the second target at 0.8980. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8785. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8765. The pivot point is at 0.8810.

Resistance levels:

0.887

0.8890

0.8915

Support levels:

0.8785

0.8765

0.8755

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is supported by the buoyant EUR/USD undertone, demand from Japan's importers and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports sales and lingering concerns over the crisis in Ukraine. Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are bearish, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 169.45 and the second target at 169.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 168. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 167.70. The pivot point is at 168.35.

Resistance levels:

169.45

169.70

170

Support levels:

168

167.70

167.10

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to range-trade. It is supported by the weaker dollar sentiment, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance and reduced concerns over China. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is tilting bearish as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, MACD staging bearish crossover is against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.851. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8480. The pivot point stands at 0.8595. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.864 and the second target at 0.8680.

Resistance levels:

0.864

0.868

0.874

Support levels:
0.851

0.848

0.844

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Gold analysis for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
Since our last analysis, Gold has been trading downwards and as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,307.71 on volume above the average. According to the daily chart, we can observe supply above the average, which is a good sign for the further downward movement. Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci Retracement to find the first down station. I got major Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,312.00 (already met) and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,263.00. We can also observe previous swing high zone at the price of 1,279.00, which may be a good support zone for Gold. Next down stations on short-term prospective are the levels 1,279.00-1,263.00. Be careful with short-term buying and watch for selling opportunities after retracements.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,328.48

R2: 1,334.68

R3: 1,344.73

Support levels:

S1: 1,308.38

S2: 1,302.18

S3: 1,292.13

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying at this stage since Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair is still testing the trendline support at 140.50/141.00 levels. A break lower from here, would bring control back with the bears and fresh lows below 136.00 would be seen. Conservative approach is to remain flat for now.

2. The immediate support is at 138.50/136.50 (interim), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower while resistance is at 144.00 (interim), followed by 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that EUR/JPY needs to break above 141.60/70 or below 140.50 to decide further direction. More probability is inclined towards the lower side though.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive setup is to remain short, stop is at 144.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair remains unchanged structurally. The back side of support trendline is providing enough resistance in the 1.4650/1,4700 zone for now. Prices should drop lower to at least 1.4350 as immediate target before producing any further meaningful pullbacks. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at 1.47.

2. Immediate resistance is at 1.4650/1.4700 (trendline), followed by 1.4850/60, 1.4850 and 1.5120, while supports are spread through 1.4360/70, followed by 1.4200 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF should be heading south till prices remain in the sell zone and below 1.4700. Minimum expectation is 1.4350 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4700, target is at 1.4350.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 25, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver forms the bottom around $19.80/20.00 levels. An engulfing bullish candle has appeared on the 8H chart as seen here. This is indicative that the next move could be high from here. Furthermore, the region is also the convergence of fibonacci retracement and extension levels of the rising and falling swings respectively. It is therefore recommended to remain long for now.

2. The immediate support level is $19.70/80, followed by $19.00 and lower, while resistance levels are spread through $21.70/80, followed by $22.30 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that Silver corrective falls is done with and the metal is ready to push through fresh highs at $25.00 and $27.00 at least.

Trading recommendations:

Hold on to long positions, set stop at $19.25, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 25, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has finally broken down the trend line support as seen on the 8H chart view. It can be now confirmed that the metal should be headed lower in a corrective 3 waves towards $1,250.00/60.00 from here on. Recommendations are to go long (aggressive trade setups), risk just below yesterdays lows. More conservative setup would be to sell on a rally through $1,359.00 as seen here.

2. Immediate support is at $1,240.00/50.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,388.00 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that wave 1 of correction is over now. Wave 2 should rally towards $1,359.00/60.00 and then wave 3 towards $1,250.00/60.00.

Trading recommendations:

1. Aggressive trade setup would be long now, stop below $1,305.00, target $1,359.00

2. Sell at $1,359.00, set stop at $1,389.00, target is at $1,260.00

3. Buy $1,260.00, place stop at $1,230.00, target would remain open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 25/03/2014 11:30 CET

The correction is getting more complex and time consuming, but the triangle pattern is still the most probable one. Nevertheless, the market is still raging between two important levels. From the upside the resistance is at the level of 141.97 and from the downside the support is at the level of 140.40. The market must breakout above or below either direction to confirm the Elliott wave labeling. Bias is to the downside due to larger time frame cycles.

Support/Resistance:

141.97- Intraday Resistance

141.85 - WR1

141.50 - Red Trendline Resistance

141.13 - Weekly Pivot

140.72 - Intraday Support

140.40 - Technical Support

140.30 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 141.50 with SL above the level of 141.86 and TP at the level of 140.72 and 140.34.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 25, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 25/03/2014 11:00 CET

So far the analysis has been playing out correctly and no major adjustments are done. The supply zone has not been broken and red trendline provides the dynamic resistance. The market has tested the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1187 again and bounced slightly. Currently, the market is moving in very tight channel and a breakout to the downside is anticipated to continue the decline. The first major support is around the level of 1.1152.

Support/Resistance:

1.1277 - Swing High

1.1255 - 1.1262 - Intraday Supply Zone

1.1225 - Key Intraday Level

1.1187 - Weekly Pivot

1.1177 - Intraday Support

1.1152 - 1.1141 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 1.1187 with SL above the level of 1.1225 and TP at the level of 1.1152.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As shown in the today's H4 chart, the metal failed to break the Support level of 19.85 to reverse its downward trend and is trading between the Support level of 20.00 and below the Resistance level od 20.20. Currently, it is testing the Resistance level and starting the bullish move. So we still suggest waiting for closing above the Resistance level of 20.20 to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.50. Then after breaking this Resistance level, silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 20.90, which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the Resistance level of 20.20 this cancels the bullish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.90), R2 (20.50), R1 (20.20), S1 (20.00), S2 (19.85).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In H4 chart, the pair failed more than once to break the Support level of 168.50 and it has been trading above it since yesterday. it's expected that the pair bounces from the Support area again and starts to take a slightly upward move, approaching the Resistance level of 169.20. Currently, it is prefered to wait till closing above this Resistance level before making a decision and in this case, we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next Resistance level of 169.75 then 170.50 as the second target. But closing below the Resistance level of 169.20 cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (170.50), R2 (169.75), R1 (169.20), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3 (167.00).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6232

R2: 1.6200

R1: 1.6186

Current spot: 1.6178

S1: 1.6152

S2: 1.6123

S3: 1.6086

Technical summary:

Yesterday's rally found strong resistance at 1.6232 for a unexpected deep retracement, which best I counted as an x-wave. We will still be looking for a move higher towards 1.6450 to end wave d of the ending diagonal before the final e-wave lower towards 1.6000. In the short term, we will be looking for support near 1.6141 for the next rally higher towards 1.6188 and a break above here confirms renewed upside pressure towards 1.6232 on the way towards 1.6450. Only an unexpected break below 1.6105 will delay the upside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6145 was hit for a nice little profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.6145 with a stop at 1.6100, and place take profit at 1.6425.

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#USDX technical analysis for March 25, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index as mentioned yesterday has paused its upward move and is making a sideways correction. Yesterday the Dollar index pulled back lower to back test the broken wedge that was once resistance. It touched the upper wedge boundaries and bounced upwards. The Dollar index reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 79.80 is now higher. Bulls will need to hold that low and move higher. Short-term resistance is the high inside the 80.30-35 area.

Short-term support is found at 79.80 and 79.65. The Ichimoku cloud continues to provide support as it is below the current price. We mentioned in a previous post that any pull back should be bought as this upward reversal in the Dollar index can unfold into a bigger reversal towards 81 and higher. Stop for bulls is the same low at 79.20.

In the weekly chart above we see how the Dollar index is trying to move back above the long-term trend line that was broken a couple weeks ago. We are approaching critical levels as there is increased resistance in the area of 80.40-70. A break above this area will help Dollar bulls make a move higher towards the Ichimoku cloud at 81.35-90 area. We are bullish as long as the index is above 79.20

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.50

R2: 142.11

R1: 140.90

Current spot: 141.37

S1: 141.19

S2: 140.90

S3: 140.43

Technical summary:

The wave ii correction is becoming more complex than first expected. The deep decline from 141.89 have to be counted as an x-wave and that means a new zig-zag correction is developing. However, the ideal target area between 142.11 and 142.50 stays intact. In the short term, we will be looking for support near 141.19 for the next rally higher towards 141.90 and into the target area between 142.11 and 142.50 before the next real downside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 141.25, stop is placed at 143.85. If you are not short in EUR yet, then wait for selling at 142.40 with the same stop at 143.85.

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Gold wave analysis for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Gold price broke below the support at $1,318 yesterday and reached our next target of $1,311. Gold price has made a completed 5 wave move downwards after making an extension of the third wave. Yesterday, we were wrong in thinking the decline was over, but with the new low, there is increased chance now that we see a considerable upward bounce before the next big move down.

In the chart above, we show our preferred elliott wave count. The downward price movement is inside the downward sloping channel as show above and a breakout of this channel will confirm that the downward move from $1,391 is over. Short-term resistance is found at $1,318-25 and short-term support at $1,305-$1,300. The first target of this upward bounce we expect is the 38% Fibonacci retracement near $1,340 and then the 50% retracement.

The daily chart is bearish as Gold price has broken below and out of the upward sloping trend channel from $1,180. Price has also reached the 38% retracement and this justifies an upward bounce soon. The entire upward move from $1,180 is most probably over in our opinion and bulls should be very cautious as this could mean that the entire upward move is over, Important long-term support that should hold if we are going to see higher than $1,391 is the support levels at $1,290 and $1,260. For now we prefer to wait for the upward bounce to complete and then we will decide if it is a sell opportunity. To turn back bullish, we will need to see 5 waves up.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 25, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: The southward outlook on the EUR/USD is currently in a serious jeopardy. The present rally in the chart may be a short-selling opportunity, as long as the price does not go further northward in a determined fashion. Should the price test the resistance line at 1.3900, the bearish outlook would be over.

USD/CHF: Yesterday, there was a serious challenge to the extant bullish bias in the market. As long as the market stays above the support level at 0.8800, it would be safe to assume that the price could go further upwards. With a renewed buying pressure, the market could eventually reach the resistance level at 0.8900.

GBP/USD: The market is consolidating right now in the downtrend. The Cable remains bearish, trading below the distribution territory at 1.6500. When the momentum thus returns to the market, it is more likely to be towards the downside. The price may reach the accumulation territory at 1.6450.

USD/JPY: The outlook on this pair at the beginning of the week is still the same. For the bullish outlook not to become valid this week, the price must stay above the demand level at 102.00. When the price is seen as trading below that demand level, it means it is time to seek short trades.

EUR/JPY: From last week up till now, the price has remained largely in an equilibrium zone. This is due to the fact that both the Euro and the Yen are strong: with neither gaining upper hand over the other. The price would either break above the supply level at 142.00 or below the demand level at 141.00, but the latter action is more likely.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

The NZD/USD pair is moving sideways since last week. Thus, according to prior events, the price of NZD/USD pair has still been moving between the ratio of 76.8% Fibonacci retracement levels at the level of 0.8570 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.8503 level. Furthermore, the price opened below the ratio of 76.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (0.8570). Also, it should be noted that the resistance is set at the 0.8570 level on March 25, 2014. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.8570 with the first target of 0.8540 and resume to 0.8510, but it should be noted the double bottom is going to set at the price of 0.8501. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8501, the market will lead to further decline to 0.8445 today or tomorrow in order to indicate a correctional movement at this level. Meanwhile, the daily chart represents a strong support at 0.8445.

Moreover, the EMA50 (red color) has to cross over the EAM50 (green color), it would be strong confirmation for the bullish market in the long term.

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Weekly technical levels of USD/CHF for March 25-28, 2014 Trend News

Weekly technical levels :

Observations :

• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend.


• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.


• Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapped and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term, you will surely lose your profit.


• Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.


• As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the prior day had huge volatility.

Notes :

• Major support for March 25, 2014: 1.6570


• Major resistance for March 25, 2014: 1.6853


• We expect a new range about 65 pips today and 133 this week.


• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

Technical levels :

Date and Time: 25/03/2014 08:07

Pair: USD/CHF

• Projected high: 0.9108


• Breakout (buy stop): 0.9053


• Strong resistance (sell limit): 0.9023


• Current pivot: 0.8791


• Strong support (buy limit): 0.8558


• Breakout (sell stop): 0.8533


• Projected low: 0.8483

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